Correcting mean-field approximations for birth-death-movement processes

On the microscale, migration, proliferation and death are crucial in the development, homeostasis and repair of an organism; on the macroscale, such effects are important in the sustainability of a population in its environment. Dependent on the relative rates of migration, proliferation and death, spatial heterogeneity may arise within an initially uniform field; this leads to the formation of spatial correlations and can have a negative impact upon population growth. Usually, such effects are neglected in modeling studies and simple phenomenological descriptions, such as the logistic model, are used to model population growth. In this work we outline some methods for analyzing exclusion processes which include agent proliferation, death and motility in two and three spatial dimensions with spatially homogeneous initial conditions. The mean-field description for these types of processes is of logistic form; we show that, under certain parameter conditions, such systems may display large deviations from the mean field, and suggest computationally tractable methods to correct the logistic-type description.

Measurement of affect during simulation-based training

Training designed to support and strengthen higher-order mental abilities now often involves immersion in Virtual Reality where dangerous real world scenarios can be safely replicated. However despite the growing popularity of advanced training simulations, methods for evaluating their use rely heavily on subjective measures or analysis of final outcomes. Without dynamic, objective performance measures the outcome of training in terms of impact on cognitive skills and ability to transfer newly acquired skills to the real world is unknown. The relationship between affective intensity and cognitive learning provides a potential new approach to ensure the processing of cognitions which occur prior to final outcomes, such as problem-solving and decision-making, are adequately evaluated. This paper describes the technical aspects of pilot work recently undertaken to develop a new measurement tool designed to objectively track individual affect levels during simulation-based training.

Availability of advance visual information constrains association-football goalkeeping performance during penalty kicks

A pressing concern within the literature on anticipatory perceptual-motor behaviour is the lack of clarity on the applicability of data, observed under video-simulation task constraints, to actual performance in which actions are coupled to perception, as captured during in-situ experimental conditions. We developed an in-situ experimental paradigm which manipulated the duration of anticipatory visual information from a penalty taker’s actions to examine experienced goalkeepers’ vulnerability to deception for the penalty kick in association football. Irrespective of the penalty taker’s kick strategy, goalkeepers initiated movement responses earlier across consecutively earlier presentation points. Overall goalkeeping performance was better in non-deception trials than in deception conditions. In deception trials, the kinematic information presented up until the penalty taker initiated his/her kicking action had a negative effect on goalkeepers’ performance. It is concluded that goalkeepers are likely to benefit from not anticipating a penalty taker’s performance outcome based on information from the run-up, in preference to later information that emerges just before the initiation of the penalty taker’s kicking action.

Modelling of operating theatres using simulation

This paper describes the development of a simulation model for operating theatres. Elective patient scheduling is complicated by several factors; stochastic demand for resources due to variation in the nature and severity of a patient’s illness, unexpected complications in a patient’s course of treatment and the arrival of non-scheduled emergency patients which compete for resources. Extend simulation software was used for its ability to represent highly complex systems and analyse model outputs. Patient arrivals and lengths of surgery are determined by analysis of historical data. The model was used to explore the effects increasing patient arrivals and alternative elective patient admission disciplines would have on the performance measures. The model can be used as a decision support system for hospital planners.

Ethical fashion : the human stories driving a fashion movement

This paper examines and compares two stories, the novel Helen Fleetwood (Elizabeth, 1841) and the film China Blue (Teddy Bear Films, 2005), in relation to the Ethical Fashion movement. In 2005, more than 50 designers from around the world took part in The Ethical Fashion Show in Paris. This movement dictates that designers ensure that their garments are produced in an ethical manner, rather than support the ‘sweatshop’ environments of some industrialists determined to make a profit at the expense of workers rights. The momentum of the Ethical Fashion movement suggests that it is possible for fashion to be ethical, desirable and profitable in the 21st century. In 1841, after extensive research, Charlotte Elizabeth Tonna (using the pseudonym Charlotte Elizabeth) began to write about the atrocities of the factory system in industrialised England. Her novel, Helen Fleetwood, is one of the earliest examples of this kind of work, providing the reader with an extensive insight into the life of English factory workers in the mid-19th century. The story is about the Widow Green and her orphan dependents who are led, through circumstance, to leave their rural home and take up employment in the cotton mills of Manchester, with the hope of having an independent existence. Instead they discover the realities of factory life – extremely long hours, unsafe conditions, poor wages and a steady decline into extreme poverty. In his film China Blue (Teddy Bear Films, 2005), director Micha X. Peled tells an alarmingly similar tale set in 21st century China. This ‘docu-drama’ (a recreation from actual interviews and diary entries) tells the story of ‘Little Jasmine’ who leaves her family’s farm to pursue an independent life in Southern China’s manufacturing district. It is not long before the realities of modern factory life are revealed to the teenage ‘heroine’ – crowded dormitories, long working hours, arbitrary fines and wages that do not compare with those of workers in the Western world. While much of the human story remains unchanged, there have been significant improvements in technology and safety in the last 165 years that result in the reality that not all clothing manufacture is performed in ‘sweatshop’ conditions. After a recent visit to a manufacturing plant in China, consultation with peers in the industry and having worked in the Australian fashion industry for many years, the author compares these stories with her own experiences.

Efficient simulation of unsaturated flow using exponential time integration

We assess the performance of an exponential integrator for advancing stiff, semidiscrete formulations of the unsaturated Richards equation in time. The scheme is of second order and explicit in nature but requires the action of the matrix function φ(A) where φ(z) = [exp(z) - 1]/z on a suitability defined vector v at each time step. When the matrix A is large and sparse, φ(A)v can be approximated by Krylov subspace methods that require only matrix-vector products with A. We prove that despite the use of this approximation the scheme remains second order. Furthermore, we provide a practical variable-stepsize implementation of the integrator by deriving an estimate of the local error that requires only a single additional function evaluation. Numerical experiments performed on two-dimensional test problems demonstrate that this implementation outperforms second-order, variable-stepsize implementations of the backward differentiation formulae.

Focus of attention and its impact on movement behaviour

Investigations into the relative effectiveness of either focusing on movement form (internal focus) or movement effects (external focus) have tended to dominate research on instructional constraints. However, rather than adopting a comparative approach to determine which focus of attention is more effective, analysis of the relative efficacy of each specific instruction focus during motor learning could be more relevant for both researchers and practitioners. Theoretical advances in the motor learning literature from a nonlinear dynamics perspective might explain the processes that underlie the effect of different attentional focus instructions. Referencing ideas and concepts from a current motor learning model, differential effects of either internal or external focus of instructions are examined. This paper also highlights some deficiencies in extant theory and research design on focus of attention which require further investigations.

Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Cluster analysis of movement patterns in multiarticular actions: A tutorial

The present paper proposes a technical analysis method for extracting information about movement patterning in studies of motor control, based on a cluster analysis of movement kinematics. In a tutorial fashion, data from three different experiments are presented to exemplify and validate the technical method. When applied to three different basketball-shooting techniques, the method clearly distinguished between the different patterns. When applied to a cyclical wrist supination-pronation task, the cluster analysis provided the same results as an analysis using the conventional discrete relative phase measure. Finally, when analyzing throwing performance constrained by distance to target, the method grouped movement patterns together according to throwing distance. In conclusion, the proposed technical method provides a valuable tool to improve understanding of coordination and control in different movement models, including multiarticular actions.

Microscopic modelling of freeway operations

Freeways are divided roadways designed to facilitate the uninterrupted movement of motor vehicles. However, many freeways now experience demand flows in excess of capacity, leading to recurrent congestion. The Highway Capacity Manual (TRB, 1994) uses empirical macroscopic relationships between speed, flow and density to quantify freeway operations and performance. Capacity may be predicted as the maximum uncongested flow achievable. Although they are effective tools for design and analysis, macroscopic models lack an understanding of the nature of processes taking place in the system. Szwed and Smith (1972, 1974) and Makigami and Matsuo (1990) have shown that microscopic modelling is also applicable to freeway operations. Such models facilitate an understanding of the processes whilst providing for the assessment of performance, through measures of capacity and delay. However, these models are limited to only a few circumstances. The aim of this study was to produce more comprehensive and practical microscopic models. These models were required to accurately portray the mechanisms of freeway operations at the specific locations under consideration. The models needed to be able to be calibrated using data acquired at these locations. The output of the models needed to be able to be validated with data acquired at these sites. Therefore, the outputs should be truly descriptive of the performance of the facility. A theoretical basis needed to underlie the form of these models, rather than empiricism, which is the case for the macroscopic models currently used. And the models needed to be adaptable to variable operating conditions, so that they may be applied, where possible, to other similar systems and facilities. It was not possible to produce a stand-alone model which is applicable to all facilities and locations, in this single study, however the scene has been set for the application of the models to a much broader range of operating conditions. Opportunities for further development of the models were identified, and procedures provided for the calibration and validation of the models to a wide range of conditions. The models developed, do however, have limitations in their applicability. Only uncongested operations were studied and represented. Driver behaviour in Brisbane was applied to the models. Different mechanisms are likely in other locations due to variability in road rules and driving cultures. Not all manoeuvres evident were modelled. Some unusual manoeuvres were considered unwarranted to model. However the models developed contain the principal processes of freeway operations, merging and lane changing. Gap acceptance theory was applied to these critical operations to assess freeway performance. Gap acceptance theory was found to be applicable to merging, however the major stream, the kerb lane traffic, exercises only a limited priority over the minor stream, the on-ramp traffic. Theory was established to account for this activity. Kerb lane drivers were also found to change to the median lane where possible, to assist coincident mergers. The net limited priority model accounts for this by predicting a reduced major stream flow rate, which excludes lane changers. Cowan's M3 model as calibrated for both streams. On-ramp and total upstream flow are required as input. Relationships between proportion of headways greater than 1 s and flow differed for on-ramps where traffic leaves signalised intersections and unsignalised intersections. Constant departure onramp metering was also modelled. Minimum follow-on times of 1 to 1.2 s were calibrated. Critical gaps were shown to lie between the minimum follow-on time, and the sum of the minimum follow-on time and the 1 s minimum headway. Limited priority capacity and other boundary relationships were established by Troutbeck (1995). The minimum average minor stream delay and corresponding proportion of drivers delayed were quantified theoretically in this study. A simulation model was constructed to predict intermediate minor and major stream delays across all minor and major stream flows. Pseudo-empirical relationships were established to predict average delays. Major stream average delays are limited to 0.5 s, insignificant compared with minor stream delay, which reach infinity at capacity. Minor stream delays were shown to be less when unsignalised intersections are located upstream of on-ramps than signalised intersections, and less still when ramp metering is installed. Smaller delays correspond to improved merge area performance. A more tangible performance measure, the distribution of distances required to merge, was established by including design speeds. This distribution can be measured to validate the model. Merging probabilities can be predicted for given taper lengths, a most useful performance measure. This model was also shown to be applicable to lane changing. Tolerable limits to merging probabilities require calibration. From these, practical capacities can be estimated. Further calibration is required of traffic inputs, critical gap and minimum follow-on time, for both merging and lane changing. A general relationship to predict proportion of drivers delayed requires development. These models can then be used to complement existing macroscopic models to assess performance, and provide further insight into the nature of operations.

Commissioning of a Geant4 based treatment plan simulation tool : linac model and dicom-rt interface

A Geant4 based simulation tool has been developed to perform Monte Carlo modelling of a 6 MV VarianTM iX clinac. The computer aided design interface of Geant4 was used to accurately model the LINAC components, including the Millenium multi-leaf collimators (MLCs). The simulation tool was verified via simulation of standard commissioning dosimetry data acquired with an ionisation chamber in a water phantom. Verification of the MLC model was achieved by simulation of leaf leakage measurements performed using GafchromicTM film in a solid water phantom. An absolute dose calibration capability was added by including a virtual monitor chamber into the simulation. Furthermore, a DICOM-RT interface was integrated with the application to allow the simulation of treatment plans in radiotherapy. The ability of the simulation tool to accurately model leaf movements and doses at each control point was verified by simulation of a widely used intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) quality assurance (QA) technique, the chair test.

A material model for flexural crack simulation in reinforced concrete elements using ABAQUS

This paper presents a material model to simulate load induced cracking in Reinforced Concrete (RC) elements in ABAQUS finite element package. Two numerical material models are used and combined to simulate complete stress-strain behaviour of concrete under compression and tension including damage properties. Both numerical techniques used in the present material model are capable of developing the stress-strain curves including strain softening regimes only using ultimate compressive strength of concrete, which is easily and practically obtainable for many of the existing RC structures or those to be built. Therefore, the method proposed in this paper is valuable in assessing existing RC structures in the absence of more detailed test results. The numerical models are slightly modified from the original versions to be comparable with the damaged plasticity model used in ABAQUS. The model is validated using different experiment results for RC beam elements presented in the literature. The results indicate a good agreement with load vs. displacement curve and observed crack patterns.

Comparison of scoring systems for invasive pests using ROC analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

A mathematical model of chlamydial infection incorporating movement of chlamydial particles

We present a spatiotemporal mathematical model of chlamydial infection, host immune response and spatial movement of infectious particles. The re- sulting partial differential equations model both the dynamics of the infection and changes in infection profile observed spatially along the length of the host genital tract. This model advances previous chlamydia modelling by incorporating spatial change, which we also demonstrate to be essential when the timescale for movement of infectious particles is equal to, or shorter than, the developmental cycle timescale. Numerical solutions and model analysis are carried out, and we present a hypothesis regarding the potential for treatment and prevention of infection by increasing chlamydial particle motility.

Business process simulation in virtual worlds

This is an invited presentation made as a short preview of the virtual environment research work being undertaken at QUT in the Business Process Management (BPM) research group, known as BPMVE. Three projects are covered, spatial process visualisation, with applications to airport check-in processes, collaborative process modelling using a virtual world BPMN editing tool and business process simulation in virtual worlds using Open Simulator and the YAWL workflow system. In addition, the relationship of this work to Organisational Psychology is briefly explored. Full Video/Audio is available at: http://www.youtube.com/user/BPMVE#p/u/1/rp506c3pPms