Modelling the impact of traffic incidents on travel time reliability

Traffic incidents are recognised as one of the key sources of non-recurrent congestion that often leads to reduction in travel time reliability (TTR), a key metric of roadway performance. A method is proposed here to quantify the impacts of traffic incidents on TTR on freeways. The method uses historical data to establish recurrent speed profiles and identifies non-recurrent congestion based on their negative impacts on speeds. The locations and times of incidents are used to identify incidents among non-recurrent congestion events. Buffer time is employed to measure TTR. Extra buffer time is defined as the extra delay caused by traffic incidents. This reliability measure indicates how much extra travel time is required by travellers to arrive at their destination on time with 95% certainty in the case of an incident, over and above the travel time that would have been required under recurrent conditions. An extra buffer time index (EBTI) is defined as the ratio of extra buffer time to recurrent travel time, with zero being the best case (no delay). A Tobit model is used to identify and quantify factors that affect EBTI using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. Both fixed and random parameter Tobit specifications are tested. The estimation results reveal that models with random parameters offer a superior statistical fit for all types of incidents, suggesting the presence of unobserved heterogeneity across segments. What factors influence EBTI depends on the type of incident. In addition, changes in TTR as a result of traffic incidents are related to the characteristics of the incidents (multiple vehicles involved, incident duration, major incidents, etc.) and traffic characteristics.

A descriptive analysis of incidents reported by community aged care workers

Little is known about the types of incidents that occur to aged care clients in the community. This limits the development of effective strategies to improve client safety. The objective of the study was to present a profile of incidents reported in Australian community aged care settings. All incident reports made by community care workers employed by one of the largest community aged care provider organizations in Australia during the period November 1, 2012, to August 8, 2013, were analyzed. A total of 356 reports were analyzed, corresponding to a 7.5% incidence rate per client year. Falls and medication incidents were the most prevalent incident types. Clients receiving high-level care and those who attended day therapy centers had the highest rate of incidents with 14% to 20% of these clients having a reported incident. The incident profile indicates that clients on higher levels of care had higher incident rates. Incident data represent an opportunity to improve client safety in community aged care.

Human error risk management methodology for rail crack incidents

The paper presents an innovative approach to modelling the causal relationships of human errors in rail crack incidents (RCI) from a managerial perspective. A Bayesian belief network is developed to model RCI by considering the human errors of designers, manufactures, operators and maintainers (DMOM) and the causal relationships involved. A set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each DMOM participant is used to model the causal relationships. A total of 14 RCI on Hong Kong’s mass transit railway (MTR) from 2008 to 2011 are used to illustrate the application of the model. Bayesian inference is used to conduct an importance analysis to assess the impact of the participants’ errors. Sensitivity analysis is then employed to gauge the effect the increased probability of occurrence of human errors on RCI. Finally, strategies for human error identification and mitigation of RCI are proposed. The identification of ability of maintainer in the case study as the most important factor influencing the probability of RCI implies the priority need to strengthen the maintenance management of the MTR system and that improving the inspection ability of the maintainer is likely to be an effective strategy for RCI risk mitigation.

The ghost in the city industrial complex: Le Corbusier and the fascist theory of Urbanisme

Le Corbusier participated in an urban dialogue with the first group in France to call itself fascist: the journalist Georges Valois’s militant Faisceau des Combattants et Producteurs (1925-1927), the “Blue Shirts,” inspired by the Italian “Fasci” of Mussolini. Le Corbusier’s portrait photograph materialised on the front cover of the January 1927 issue of the Faisceau League’s newspaper Le Nouveau Siècle edited by the former anarcho-syndicalist journalist Georges Valois, its leader, who fashioned himself as the French Mussolini. Le Corbusier was described in the Revue as one of les animateurs (the “organisers”) of the Party1 – meaning a member of the technical elite who would drive the Faisceau’s plans. On 1 May 1927, the Nouveau Siècle printed a full-page feature “Le Plan Voisin” on Le Corbusier’s 1922 redesign of Paris : the architect’s single-point perspective sketch appeared below an extract lifted from the architect’s original polemic Le Centre de Paris on the pages of Le Corbusier’s second book Urbanisme published two years earlier, a treatise on urbanism.2 Three weeks later, Le Corbusier presented a slide show of his urban plans at a fascist rally for the inauguration of the Faisceau’s new headquarters on the rue du faubourg Poissonniere, thereby crystalising the architect’s hallowed status in the league...

The development and preliminary evaluation of an education intervention to prevent driveway run-over incidents

Objective While driveway run-over incidents continue to be a cause of serious injury and deaths among young children in Australia, few empirically evaluated educational interventions have been developed which address these incidents. Addressing this gap, this study describes the development and evaluation of a paper-based driveway safety intervention targeting caregivers of children aged 5 years or younger. Design Cross-sectional survey. Method and setting Informed by previous research, the intervention targeted key caregiver safety behaviours that address driveway risks. To assess the impact of the intervention, 137 Queensland (Australia) caregivers (95.0% women; mean age = 34.97 years) were recruited. After receiving the intervention, changes to a number of outcomes such as caregiver risk perception, safety knowledge and behavioural intentions were measured. Results Findings indicated that the intervention had increased general and specific situational risk awareness and safety knowledge among a substantial proportion of participants. Close to one-quarter of the sample strongly agreed that the intervention had increased these outcomes. In addition, 71.6% of the sample reported that they intended to make changes to their routine in and around the driveway, as a result of reading the intervention material and a further, quarter of the participants strongly agreed that the information provided would be a help both to themselves (26.5%) and other caregivers (33.8%) to keep their children safe in the driveway. Conclusion: While the educational intervention requires further validation, findings from this study suggest that intervention content and format increases driveway safety.