A review of modern computational algorithms for Bayesian optimal design

Bayesian experimental design is a fast growing area of research with many real-world applications. As computational power has increased over the years, so has the development of simulation-based design methods, which involve a number of algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, sequential Monte Carlo and approximate Bayes methods, facilitating more complex design problems to be solved. The Bayesian framework provides a unified approach for incorporating prior information and/or uncertainties regarding the statistical model with a utility function which describes the experimental aims. In this paper, we provide a general overview on the concepts involved in Bayesian experimental design, and focus on describing some of the more commonly used Bayesian utility functions and methods for their estimation, as well as a number of algorithms that are used to search over the design space to find the Bayesian optimal design. We also discuss other computational strategies for further research in Bayesian optimal design.

Age, physical inactivity, obesity, health conditions, and health-related quality of life among patients receiving conservative management for musculoskeletal disorders

Background Musculoskeletal conditions and insufficient physical activity have substantial personal and economic costs among contemporary aging societies. This study examined the age distribution, comorbid health conditions, body mass index (BMI), self-reported physical activity levels, and health-related quality of life of patients accessing ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. The study also investigated whether comorbidity, BMI, and self-reported physical activity were associated with patients’ health-related quality of life after adjusting for age as a potential confounder. Methods A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in three ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. Participants (n=224) reported their reason for referral, age, comorbid health conditions, BMI, physical activity levels (Active Australia Survey), and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D). Descriptive statistics and linear modeling were used to examine the associations between age, comorbidity, BMI, intensity and duration of physical activity, and health-related quality of life. Results The majority of patients (n=115, 51.3%) reported two or more comorbidities. In addition to other musculoskeletal conditions, common comorbidities included depression (n=41, 18.3%), hypertension (n=40, 17.9%), and diabetes (n=39, 17.4%). Approximately one-half of participants (n=110, 49.1%) self-reported insufficient physical activity to meet minimum recommended guidelines and 150 (67.0%) were overweight (n=56, 23.2%), obese (n=64, 28.6%), severely obese (n=16, 7.1%), or very severely obese (n=14, 6.3%), with a higher proportion of older patients affected. A generalized linear model indicated that, after adjusting for age, self-reported physical activity was positively associated (z=4.22, P<0.001), and comorbidities were negatively associated (z=-2.67, P<0.01) with patients’ health-related quality of life. Conclusion Older patients were more frequently affected by undesirable clinical attributes of comorbidity, obesity, and physical inactivity. However, findings from this investigation are compelling for the care of patients of all ages. Potential integration of physical activity behavior change or other effective lifestyle interventions into models of care for patients with musculoskeletal disorders is worthy of further investigation.

Moderate physical activity level as a protective factor against metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and older women

Aims and objectives To investigate whether physical activity is a protective factor against metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and older women. Background Socio-demographic and lifestyle behaviour factors contribute to metabolic syndrome. To minimise the risk of metabolic syndrome, several global guidelines recommend increasing physical activity level. However, only limited research has investigated the relationship between physical activity levels and metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and older women after adjusting for socio-demographic and lifestyle behaviour factors. Design Cross-sectional design. Methods A convenience sample of 326 middle-aged and older women was recruited. Metabolic syndrome was confirmed according to the National Cholesterol Education Program, Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, and physical activity levels were measured by the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Results The sample had a mean age of 60•9 years, and the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 43•3%. Postmenopausal women and women with low socioeconomic status (low-education background, without personal income and currently unemployed) had a significantly higher risk of developing metabolic syndrome. After adjusting for significant socio-demographic and lifestyle behaviour factors, the women with moderate or high physical activity levels had a significantly lower (OR = 0•10; OR = 0•11, p < 0•001) risk of metabolic syndrome and a lower risk for each specific component of metabolic syndrome, including elevated fasting plasma glucose (OR = 0•29; OR = 0•26, p = 0•009), elevated blood pressure (OR = 0•18; OR = 0•32, p = 0•029), elevated triglycerides (OR = 0•41; OR = 0•15, p = 0•001), reduced high-density lipoprotein (OR = 0•28; OR = 0•27, p = 0•004) and central obesity (OR = 0•31; OR = 0•22, p = 0•027). Conclusions After adjusting for socio-demographic and lifestyle behaviour factors, physical activity level was a significant protective factor against metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and older women. Higher physical activity levels (moderate or high physical activity level) reduced the risk of metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and older women. Relevance to clinical practice Appropriate strategies should be developed to encourage middle-aged and older women across different socio-demographic backgrounds to engage in moderate or high levels of physical activity to reduce the risk of metabolic syndrome.

Contributions to Bayesian experimental design

This thesis progresses Bayesian experimental design by developing novel methodologies and extensions to existing algorithms. Through these advancements, this thesis provides solutions to several important and complex experimental design problems, many of which have applications in biology and medicine. This thesis consists of a series of published and submitted papers. In the first paper, we provide a comprehensive literature review on Bayesian design. In the second paper, we discuss methods which may be used to solve design problems in which one is interested in finding a large number of (near) optimal design points. The third paper presents methods for finding fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, and the fourth paper investigates methods to rapidly approximate the posterior distribution for use in Bayesian utility functions.

Hormone and Metabolite Profiles in Nesting Green and Flatback Turtles: Turtle Species with Different Life Histories

Herbivorous turtle, Chelonia mydas, inhabiting the south China Sea and breeding in Peninsular Malaysia, and Natator depressus, a carnivorous turtle inhabiting the Great Barrier Reef and breeding at Curtis Island in Queensland, Australia, differ both in diet and life history. Analysis of plasma metabolites levels and six sex steroid hormones during the peak of their nesting season in both species showed hormonal and metabolite variations. When compared with results from other studies progesterone levels were the highest whereas dihydrotestosterone was the plasma steroid hormone present at the lowest concentration in both C. mydas and N. depressus plasma. Interestingly, oestrone was observed at relatively high concentrations in comparison to oestradiol levels recorded in previous studies suggesting that it plays a significant role in nesting turtles. Also, hormonal correlations between the studied species indicate unique physiological interactions during nesting. Pearson correlation analysis showed that in N. depressus the time of oviposition was associated with elevations in both plasma corticosterone and oestrone levels. Therefore, we conclude that corticosterone and oestrone may influence nesting behaviour and physiology in N. depressus. To summarise, these two nesting turtle species can be distinguished based on the hormonal profile of oestrone, progesterone, and testosterone using discriminant analysis.

Normal reference values of strength in pelvic floor muscle of women: A descriptive and inferential study

Background To describe the clinical, functional and quality of life characteristics in women with Stress Urinary Incontinence (SUI). In addition, to analyse the relationship between the variables reported by the patients and those informed by the clinicians, and the relationship between instrumented variables and the manual pelvic floor strength assessment. Methods Two hundred and eighteen women participated in this observational, analytical study. An interview about Urinary Incontinence and the quality of life questionnaires (EuroQoL-5D and SF-12) were developed as outcomes reported by the patients. Manual muscle testing and perineometry as outcomes informed by the clinician were assessed. Descriptive and correlation analysis were carried out. Results The average age of the subjects was (39.93?±?12.27 years), (24.49?±?3.54 BMI). The strength evaluated by manual testing of the right levator ani muscles was 7.79?±?2.88, the strength of left levator ani muscles was 7.51?±?2.91 and the strength assessed with the perineometer was 7.64?±?2.55. A positive correlation was found between manual muscle testing and perineometry of the pelvic floor muscles (p?correlation was found between outcomes of quality of life reported by the patients and outcomes of functional capacity informed by the physiotherapist. Conclusion A stratification of the strength of pelvic floor muscles in a normal distribution of a large sample of women with SUI was done, which provided the clinic with a baseline. There is a relationship between the strength of the pelvic muscles assessed manually and that obtained by a perineometer in women with SUI. There was no relationship between these values of strength and quality of life perceived.

Impact of particle formation on atmospheric ions and particle number concentrations in an urban environment

A measurement campaign was conducted from 3 to 19 December 2012 at an urban site of Brisbane, Australia. Size distribution of ions and particle number concentrations were measured to investigate the influence of particle formation and biomass burning on atmospheric ion and particle concentrations. Overall ion and particle number concentrations during the measurement period were found to be (-1.2 x 103 cm-3 | +1.6 x 103 cm-3) and 4.4 x 103, respectively. The results of correlation analysis between concentrations of ions and nitrogen oxides indicated that positive and negative ions originated from similar sources, and that vehicle exhaust emissions had a more significant influence on intermediate/large ions, while cluster ions rapidly attached to larger particles once emitted into the atmosphere. Diurnal variations in ion concentration suggested the enrichment of intermediate and large ions on new particle formation event days, indicating that they were involved in the particle formation processes. Elevated total ions, particularly larger ions, and particle number concentrations were found during biomass burning episodes. This could be due to the attachment of cluster ions onto accumulation mode particles or production of charged particles from biomass burning, which were in turn transported to the measurement site. The results of this work enhance scientific understanding of the sources of atmospheric ions in an urban environment, as well as their interactions with particles during particle formation processes.

Cone location and correction of keratoconus with rigid gas-permeable contact lenses

Purpose To evaluate the influence of cone location and corneal cylinder on RGP corrected visual acuities and residual astigmatism in patients with keratoconus. Methods In this prospective study, 156 eyes from 134 patients were enrolled. Complete ophthalmologic examination including manifest refraction, Best spectacle visual acuity (BSCVA), slit-lamp biomicroscopy was performed and corneal topography analysis was done. According to the cone location on the topographic map, the patients were divided into central and paracentral cone groups. Trial RGP lenses were selected based on the flat Sim K readings and a ‘three-point touch’ fitting approach was used. Over contact lens refraction was performed, residual astigmatism (RA) was measured and best-corrected RGP visual acuities (RGPVA) were recorded. Results The mean age (±SD) was 22.1 ± 5.3 years. 76 eyes (48.6%) had central and 80 eyes (51.4%) had paracentral cone. Prior to RGP lenses fitting mean (±SD) subjective refraction spherical equivalent (SRSE), subjective refraction astigmatism (SRAST) and BSCVA (logMAR) were −5.04 ± 2.27 D, −3.51 ± 1.68 D and 0.34 ± 0.14, respectively. There were statistically significant differences between central and paracentral cone groups in mean values of SRSE, SRAST, flat meridian (Sim K1), steep meridian (Sim K2), mean K and corneal cylinder (p-values < 0.05). Comparison of BSCVA to RGPVA shows that vision has improved 0.3 logMAR by RGP lenses (p < 0.0001). Mean (±SD) RA was −0.72 ± 0.39 D. There were no statistically significant differences between RGPVAs and RAs of central and paracentral cone groups (p = 0.22) and (p = 0.42), respectively. Pearson's correlation analysis shows that there is a statistically significant relationship between corneal cylinder and BSCVA and RGPVA, However, the relationship between corneal cylinder and residual astigmatism was not significant. Conclusions Cone location has no effect on the RGP corrected visual acuities and residual astigmatism in patients with keratoconus. Corneal cylinder and Sim K values influence RGP-corrected visual acuities but do not influence residual astigmatism.

Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis

Provides an accessible foundation to Bayesian analysis using real world models This book aims to present an introduction to Bayesian modelling and computation, by considering real case studies drawn from diverse fields spanning ecology, health, genetics and finance. Each chapter comprises a description of the problem, the corresponding model, the computational method, results and inferences as well as the issues that arise in the implementation of these approaches. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis: •Illustrates how to do Bayesian analysis in a clear and concise manner using real-world problems. •Each chapter focuses on a real-world problem and describes the way in which the problem may be analysed using Bayesian methods. •Features approaches that can be used in a wide area of application, such as, health, the environment, genetics, information science, medicine, biology, industry and remote sensing. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis is aimed at statisticians, researchers and practitioners who have some expertise in statistical modelling and analysis, and some understanding of the basics of Bayesian statistics, but little experience in its application. Graduate students of statistics and biostatistics will also find this book beneficial.

The interleukin 1 gene cluster contains a major susceptibility locus for ankylosing spondylitis

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a common and highly heritable inflammatory arthropathy. Although the gene HLA-B27 is almost essential for the inheritance of the condition, it alone is not sufficient to explain the pattern of familial recurrence of the disease. We have previously demonstrated suggestive linkage of AS to chromosome 2q13, a region containing the interleukin 1 (IL-1) family gene cluster, which includes several strong candidates for involvement in the disease. In the current study, we describe strong association and transmission of IL-1 family gene cluster single-nucleotide polymorphisms and haplotypes with AS.

Letter: Brain natriuretic peptide is a potentially useful screening tool for the detection of cardiovascular disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have a significantly higher risk of coronary heart disease, despite being less likely to report symptoms of angina, and are more likely to experience unrecognised myocardial infarction and sudden cardiac death than non-RA controls.1 Furthermore, left ventricular diastolic dysfunction has been described in up to 40% of patients with RA.2...

Trans-disciplinary research in synthesis of grass pollen aerobiology and its importance for respiratory health in Australasia

Grass pollen is a major trigger for allergic rhinitis and asthma, yet little is known about the timing and levels of human exposure to airborne grass pollen across Australasian urban environments. The relationships between environmental aeroallergen exposure and allergic respiratory disease bridge the fields of ecology, aerobiology, geospatial science and public health. The Australian Aerobiology Working Group comprised of experts in botany, palynology, biogeography, climate change science, plant genetics, biostatistics, ecology, pollen allergy, public and environmental health, and medicine, was established to systematically source, collate and analyse atmospheric pollen concentration data from 11 Australian and six New Zealand sites. Following two week-long workshops, post-workshop evaluations were conducted to reflect upon the utility of this analysis and synthesis approach to address complex multidisciplinary questions. This Working Group described i) a biogeographically dependent variation in airborne pollen diversity, ii) a latitudinal gradient in the timing, duration and number of peaks of the grass pollen season, and iii) the emergence of new methodologies based on trans-disciplinary synthesis of aerobiology and remote sensing data. Challenges included resolving methodological variations between pollen monitoring sites and temporal variations in pollen datasets. Other challenges included “marrying” ecosystem and health sciences and reconciling divergent expert opinion. The Australian Aerobiology Working Group facilitated knowledge transfer between diverse scientific disciplines, mentored students and early career scientists, and provided an uninterrupted collaborative opportunity to focus on a unifying problem globally. The Working Group provided a platform to optimise the value of large existing ecological datasets that have importance for human respiratory health and ecosystems research. Compilation of current knowledge of Australasian pollen aerobiology is a critical first step towards the management of exposure to pollen in patients with allergic disease and provides a basis from which the future impacts of climate change on pollen distribution can be assessed and monitored.

Adaptive immunity to rhinoviruses: Sex and age matter

Background: Rhinoviruses (RV) are key triggers in acute asthma exacerbations. Previous studies suggest that men suffer from infectious diseases more frequently and with greater severity than women. Additionally, the immune response to most infections and vaccinations decreases with age. Most immune function studies do not account for such differences, therefore the aim of this study was to determine if the immune response to rhinovirus varies with sex or age. Methods: Blood mononuclear cells were isolated from 63 healthy individuals and grouped by sex and age (≤50 years old and ≥52 years old). Cells were cultured with rhinovirus 16 at a multiplicity of infection of 1. The chemokine IP-10 was measured at 24 h as an index of innate immunity while IFNγ and IL-13 were measured at 5 days as an index of adaptive immunity. Results: Rhinovirus induced IFNγ and IL-13 was significantly higher in ≤50 year old women than in age matched men (p < 0.02 and p < 0.05) and ≥52 year old women (p < 0.02 and p > 0.005). There was no sex or age based difference in rhinovirus induced IP-10 expression. Both IFNγ and IL-13 were negatively correlated with age in women but not in men. Conclusions: This study suggests that pre-menopausal women have a stronger adaptive immune response to rhinovirus infection than men and older people, though the mechanisms responsible for these differences remain to be determined. Our findings highlight the importance of gender and age balance in clinical studies and in the development of new treatments and vaccines.

Genetic association and gene expression studies suggest that genetic variants in the SYNE1 and TNF genes are related to menstrual migraine

BACKGROUND: Menstrual migraine (MM) encompasses pure menstrual migraine (PMM) and menstrually-related migraine (MRM). This study was aimed at investigating genetic variants that are potentially related to MM, specifically undertaking genotyping and mRNA expression analysis of the ESR1, PGR, SYNE1 and TNF genes in MM cases and non-migraine controls. METHODS: A total of 37 variants distributed across 14 genes were genotyped in 437 DNA samples (282 cases and 155 controls). In addition levels of gene expression were determined in 74 cDNA samples (41 cases and 33 controls). Association and correlation analysis were performed using Plink and RStudio. RESULTS: SNPs rs3093664 and rs9371601 in TNF and SYNE1 genes respectively, were significantly associated with migraine in the MM population (p = 0.008; p = 0.009 respectively). Analysis of qPCR results found no significant difference in levels of gene expression between cases and controls. However, we found a significant correlation between the expression of ESR1 and SYNE1, ESR1 and PGR and TNF and SYNE1 in samples taken during the follicular phase of the menstrual cycle. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that SNPs rs9371601 and rs3093664 in the SYNE1 and TNF genes respectively, are associated with MM. The present study also provides strong evidence to support the correlation of ESR1, PGR, SYNE1 and TNF gene expression in MM.