Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian Weighted Least Squares approach

Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.

SnowSports interactive a global start-up's challenges

A case study based on the experiences of (at the time of writing) Brisbane-based start-up SnowSports Interactive and their plans for global expansion. This case study questions whether SnowSports interactive is ready for global expansion, and if so which country should be its primary target? Once a country has been chosen, how should SnowSports approach and enter the market? This case study prompts business (in particular international business students) to consider a company's readiness in entering a global market, utlising evaluating tools in a wide range of discipline - product, human resources, capital, busines strategy. Furthermore students are asked to match SnowSports' unique characteristics with a country and an entry strategy. Ability to answer questions posed in this case study will demonstrate high level understanding in entrepreneurship and innovation, international business strategy, and cultural awareness; and demonstrate ability in theoretical and framework application

Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular mortality and the role of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors : a prospective cohort study with 17-years of follow up

Background The mechanisms underlying socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are largely unknown. We studied the contribution of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors to inequalities in CVD mortality in adulthood. Methods The prospective GLOBE study was carried out in the Netherlands, with baseline data from 1991, and linked with the cause of death register in 2007. At baseline, participants reported on adulthood socioeconomic position (SEP) (own educational level), childhood socioeconomic conditions (occupational level of respondent’s father), and a broad range of adulthood risk factors (health behaviours, material circumstances, psychosocial factors). This present study is based on 5,395 men and 6,306 women, and the data were analysed using Cox regression models and hazard ratios (HR). Results A low adulthood SEP was associated with increased CVD mortality for men (HR 1.84; 95% CI: 1.41-2.39) and women (HR 1.80; 95%CI: 1.04-3.10). Those with poorer childhood socioeconomic conditions were more likely to die from CVD in adulthood, but this reached statistical significance only among men with the poorest childhood socioeconomic circumstances. About half of the investigated adulthood risk factors showed significant associations with CVD mortality among both men and women, namely renting a house, experiencing financial problems, smoking, physical activity and marital status. Alcohol consumption and BMI showed a U-shaped relationship with CVD mortality among women, with the risk being significantly greater for both abstainers and heavy drinkers, and among women who were underweight or obese. Among men, being single or divorced and using sleep/anxiety drugs increased the risk of CVD mortality. In explanatory models, the largest contributor to adulthood CVD inequalities were material conditions for men (42%; 95% CI: −73 to −20) and behavioural factors for women (55%; 95% CI: -191 to −28). Simultaneous adjustment for adulthood risk factors and childhood socioeconomic conditions attenuated the HR for the lowest adulthood SEP to 1.34 (95% CI: 0.99-1.82) for men and 1.19 (95% CI: 0.65-2.15) for women. Conclusions Adulthood material, behavioural and psychosocial factors played a major role in the explanation of adulthood SEP inequalities in CVD mortality. Childhood socioeconomic circumstances made a modest contribution, mainly via their association with adulthood risk factors. Policies and interventions to reduce health inequalities are likely to be most effective when considering the influence of socioeconomic circumstances across the entire life course and in particular, poor material conditions and unhealthy behaviours in adulthood.

Timed Up and Go Tests in cardiac rehabilitation : reliability and comparison with the 6-minute walk test

PURPOSE: To test the reliability of Timed Up and Go Tests (TUGTs) in cardiac rehabilitation (CR) and compare TUGTs to the 6-Minute Walk Test (6MWT) for outcome measurement. METHODS: Sixty-one of 154 consecutive community-based CR patients were prospectively recruited. Subjects undertook repeated TUGTs and 6MWTs at the start of CR (start-CR), postdischarge from CR (post-CR), and 6 months postdischarge from CR (6 months post-CR). The main outcome measurements were TUGT time (TUGTT) and 6MWT distance (6MWD). RESULTS: Mean (SD) TUGTT1 and TUGTT2 at the 3 assessments were 6.29 (1.30) and 5.94 (1.20); 5.81 (1.22) and 5.53 (1.09); and 5.39 (1.60) and 5.01 (1.28) seconds, respectively. A reduction in TUGTT occurred between each outcome point (P ≤ .002). Repeated TUGTTs were strongly correlated at each assessment, intraclass correlation (95% CI) = 0.85 (0.76–0.91), 0.84 (0.73–0.91), and 0.90 (0.83–0.94), despite a reduction between TUGTT1 and TUGTT2 of 5%, 5%, and 7%, respectively (P ≤ .006). Relative decreases in TUGTT1 (TUGTT2) occurred from start-CR to post-CR and from start-CR to 6 months post-CR of −7.5% (−6.9%) and −14.2% (−15.5%), respectively, while relative increases in 6MWD1 (6MWD2) occurred, 5.1% (7.2%) and 8.4% (10.2%), respectively (P < .001 in all cases). Pearson correlation coefficients for 6MWD1 to TUGTT1 and TUGTT2 across all times were −0.60 and −0.68 (P < .001) and the intraclass correlations (95% CI) for the speeds derived from averaged 6MWDs and TUGTTs were 0.65 (0.54, 0.73) (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Similar relative changes occurred for the TUGT and the 6MWT in CR. A significant correlation between the TUGTT and 6MWD was demonstrated, and we suggest that the TUGT may provide a related or a supplementary measurement of functional capacity in CR.

Paleomagnetic data support Early Permian age for the Abor Volcanics in the lower Siang Valley, NE India; significance for Gondwana-related break-up models

Confusion exists as to the age of the Abor Volcanics of NE India. Some consider the unit to have been emplaced in the Early Permian, others the Early Eocene, a difference of ∼230 million years. The divergence in opinion is significant because fundamentally different models explaining the geotectonic evolution of India depend on the age designation of the unit. Paleomagnetic data reported here from several exposures in the type locality of the formation in the lower Siang Valley indicate that steep dipping primary magnetizations (mean = 72.7 ± 6.2°, equating to a paleo-latitude of 58.1°) are recorded in the formation. These are only consistent with the unit being of Permian age, possibly Artinskian based on a magnetostratigraphic argument. Plate tectonic models for this time consistently show the NE corner of the sub-continent >50°S; in the Early Eocene it was just north of the equator, which would have resulted in the unit recording shallow directions. The mean declination is counter-clockwise rotated by ∼94°, around half of which can be related to the motion of the Indian block; the remainder is likely due local Himalayan-age thrusting in the Eastern Syntaxis. Several workers have correlated the Abor Volcanics with broadly coeval mafic volcanic suites in Oman, NE Pakistan–NW India and southern Tibet–Nepal, which developed in response to the Cimmerian block peeling-off eastern Gondwana in the Early-Middle Permian, but we believe there are problems with this model. Instead, we suggest that the Abor basalts relate to India–Antarctica/India–Australia extension that was happening at about the same time. Such an explanation best accommodates the relevant stratigraphical and structural data (present-day position within the Himalayan thrust stack), as well as the plate tectonic model for Permian eastern Gondwana.

How do supercontinents break up? — assessing the continental large igneous province (LIP) record of the break-up of Pangea

LIP emplacement is linked to the timing and evolution of supercontinental break-up. LIP-related break-up produces volcanic rifted margins, new and large (up to 108 km2) ocean basins, and new, smaller continents that undergo dispersal and potentially reassembly (e.g., India). However, not all continental LIPs lead to continental rupture. We analysed the <330 Ma continental LIP record(following final assembly of Pangea) to find relationships between LIP event attributes (e.g., igneous volume, extent, distance from pre-existing continental margin) and ocean basin attributes (e.g., length of new ocean basin/rifted margin) and how these varied during the progressive break up of Pangea. No correlation exists between LIP magnitude and size of the subsequent ocean basin or rifted margin. Our review suggests a three-phased break-up history of Pangea: 1) “Preconditioning” phase (∼330–200 Ma): LIP events (n=7) occurred largely around the supercontinental margin clustering today in Asia, with a low (<20%) rifting success rate. The Panjal Traps at ∼280 Ma may represent the first continental rupturing event of Pangea, resulting in continental ribboning along the Tethyan margin; 2) “Main Break-up” phase (∼200–100 Ma): numerous large LIP events(n=10) in the supercontinent interior, resulting in highly successful fragmentation (90%) and large, new ocean basins(e.g., Central/South Atlantic, Indian, >3000 km long); 3) “Waning” phase (∼100–0 Ma): Declining LIP magnitudes (n=6), greater proximity to continental margins (e.g., Madagascar, North Atlantic, Afro-Arabia, Sierra Madre) producing smaller ocean basins (<2600 km long). How Pangea broke up may thus have implications for earlier supercontinent reconstructions and LIP record.

Effects of a defender on run-up velocity and ball speed when crossing a football

This study evaluated effects of defensive pressure on running velocity in footballers during the approach to kick a stationary football. Approach velocity and ball speed/accuracy data were recorded from eight football youth academy participants (15.25, SD=0.46 yrs). Participants were required to run to a football to cross it to a receiver to score against a goal-keeper. Defensive pressure was manipulated across three counterbalanced conditions: defender-absent (DA); defender-far (DF) and defender-near (DN). Pass accuracy (percentages of a total of 32 trials with 95% confidence limits in parenthesis) did not significantly reduce under changing defensive pressure: DA, 78% (55–100%); DF, 78% (61–96%); DN, 59% (40–79%). Ball speed (m·s−1) significantly reduced as defensive pressure was included and increased: DA, 23.10 (22.38–23.83); DF, 20.40 (19.69–21.11); DN, 19.22 (18.51–19.93). When defensive pressure was introduced, average running velocity of attackers did not change significantly: DA versus DF (m·s−1), 5.40 (5.30–5.51) versus 5.41 (5.34–5.48). Scaling defender starting positions closer to the start position of the attacker (DN) significantly increased average running velocity relative to the DA and DF conditions, 5.60 (5.50–5.71). In the final approach footfalls, all conditions significantly differed: DA, 5.69 (5.35–6.03); DF, 6 .22 (5.93–6.50); DN, 6.52 (6.23–6.80). Data suggested that approach velocity is constrained by both presence and initial distance of the defender during task performance. Implications are that the expression of kicking behaviour is specific to a performance context and some movement regulation features will not emerge unless a defender is present as a task constraint in practice.

Contrast water therapy and exercise induced muscle damage : a systematic review and meta-analysis

The aim of this systematic review was to examine the effect of Contrast Water Therapy (CWT) on recovery following exercise induced muscle damage. Controlled trials were identified from computerized literature searching and citation tracking performed up to February 2013. Eighteen trials met the inclusion criteria; all had a high risk of bias. Pooled data from 13 studies showed that CWT resulted in significantly greater improvements in muscle soreness at the five follow-up time points(<6, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) in comparison to passive recovery. Pooled data also showed that CWT significantly reduced muscle strength loss at each follow-up time (<6, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) in comparison to passive recovery. Despite comparing CWT to a large number of other recovery interventions, including cold water immersion, warm water immersion, compression, active recovery and stretching, there was little evidence for a superior treatment intervention. The current evidence base shows that CWT is superior to using passive recovery or rest after exercise; the magnitudes of these effects may be most relevant to an elite sporting population. There seems to be little difference in recovery outcome between CWT and other popular recovery interventions.

Personal processes interface mock up

Situated on Youtube, and shown in various locations. In this video we show a 3D mock up of a personal house purchasing process. A path traversal metaphor is used to give a sense of progression along the process stages. The intention is to be able to use console devices like an Xbox to consume business processes. This is so businesses can expose their internal processes to consumers using sophisticated user interfaces. The demonstrator was developed using Microsoft XNA, with assistance from the Suncorp Bank and the Smart Services CRC. More information at: www.bpmve.org

Open up the building : architectural relevance of building-users and their participations

As buildings have become more advanced and complex, our ability to understand how they are operated and managed has diminished. Modern technologies have given us systems to look after us but it appears to have taken away our say in how we like our environment to be managed. The aim of this paper is to discuss our research concerning spaces that are sensitive to changing needs and allow building-users to have a certain level of freedom to understand and control their environment. We discuss why, what we call the Active Layer, is needed in modern buildings; how building inhabitants are to interact with it; and the development of interface prototypes to test consequences of having the Active Layer in our environment.

Enhanced skin self-examination : a novel approach to skin cancer monitoring and follow-up

Advances in mobile telephone technology and available dermoscopic attachments for mobile telephones have created a unique opportunity for consumer-initiated mobile teledermoscopy. At least 2 companies market a dermoscope attachment for an iPhone (Apple), forming a mobile teledermoscope. These devices and the corresponding software applications (apps) enable (1) lesion magnification (at least ×20) and visualization with polarized light; (2) photographic documentation using the telephone camera; (3) lesion measurement (ruler); (4) adding of image and lesion details; and (5) e-mail data to a teledermatologist for review. For lesion assessment, the asymmetry-color (AC) rule has 94% sensitivity and 62 specificity for melanoma identification by consumers [1]. Thus, consumers can be educated to recognize asymmetry and color patterns in suspect lesions. However, we know little about consumers' use of mobile teledermoscopy for lesion assessment.

Characterising one-to-one conservatoire teaching : Some implications of a quantitative analysis

Despite the significant recent growth in research relating to instrumental, vocal and composition tuition in higher education, little is known about the diversity of approaches that characterise one-to-one teaching in the Conservatoire, and what counts as optimal practice for educating 21st-century musicians. Through analysis of video-recorded one-to-one lessons that draws on a ‘bottom up’ methodology for characterising pedagogical practices (Taylor, 2012; Taylor et al, 2012), this paper provides empirical evidence about the nature of one-to-one pedagogy in one Australian institution. The research aims (1) to enable a better understanding of current one-to-one conservatoire teaching; and (2) to build and improve upon existing teaching practice using authentic insights gained through systematic investigation. The authors hope the research will lead to a better understanding of the diversity and efficacy of the pedagogical practice within the specific context in which the study was conducted, and beyond, to Conservatoire pedagogy generally.

Creating a warm and supportive learning environment for young children

Planning and managing the classroom environment in relation to daily schedule, activities, and routines is vital to creating warm, supportive learning environments for young children.

Reply to comment on “Characterising metal build-up on urban road surfaces” by Egodawatta et al. (2013)

In the recent manuscript published by Egodawatta et al. (2013), the authors investigated the build-up process of heavy metals (HMs) associated with road-deposited sediment (RDS) on residential road surfaces, and presented empirical models for the prediction of both the surface loads and build-up rates of HMs on these surfaces...