479 resultados para Variance.


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Aims The aim of this cross sectional study is to explore levels of physical activity and sitting behaviour amongst a sample of pregnant Australian women (n = 81), and investigate whether reported levels of physical activity and/or time spent sitting were associated with depressive symptom scores after controlling for potential covariates. Methods Study participants were women who attended the antenatal clinic of a large Brisbane maternity hospital between October and November 2006. Data relating to participants. current levels of physical activity, sitting behaviour, depressive symptoms, demographic characteristics and exposure to known risk factors for depression during pregnancy were collected; via on-site survey, follow-up telephone interview (approximately one week later) and post delivery access to participant hospital records. Results Participants were aged 29.5 (¡¾ 5.6) years and mostly partnered (86.4%) with a gross household income above $26,000 per annum (88.9%). Levels of physical activity were generally low, with only 28.4 % of participants reporting sufficient total activity and 16% of participants reporting sufficient planned (leisure-time) activity. The sample mean for depressive symptom scores measured by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D) was 6.38 (¡¾ 2.55). The mean depressive symptom scores for participants who reported total moderate-to-vigorous activity levels of sufficient, insufficient, and none, were 5.43 (¡¾ 1.56), 5.82 (¡¾ 1.77) and 7.63 (¡¾ 3.25), respectively. Hierarchical multivariable linear regression modelling indicated that after controlling for covariates, a statistically significant difference of 1.09 points was observed between mean depressive symptom scores of participants who reported sufficient total physical activity, compared with participants who reported they were engaging in no moderate-to-vigorous activity in a typical week (p = 0.05) but this did not reach the criteria for a clinically meaningful difference. Total physical activity was contributed 2.2% to the total 30.3% of explained variance within this model. The other main contributors to explained variance in multivariable regression models were anxiety symptom scores and the number of existing children. Further, a trend was observed between higher levels of planned sitting behaviour and higher depressive symptom scores (p = 0.06); this correlation was not clinically meaningful. Planned sitting contributed 3.2% to the total 31.3 % of explained variance. The number of regression covariates and limited sample size led to a less than ideal ratio of covariates to participants, probably attenuating this relationship. Specific information about the sitting-based activities in which participants engaged may have provided greater insight about the relationship between planned sitting and depressive symptoms, but these data were not captured by the present study. Conclusions The finding that higher levels of physical activity were associated with lower levels of depressive symptoms is consistent with the current body of existing literature in pregnant women, and with a larger body of evidence based in general population samples. Although this result was not considered clinically meaningful, the criterion for a clinically meaningful result was an a priori decision based on quality of life literature in non-pregnant populations and may not truly reflect a difference in symptoms that is meaningful to pregnant women. Further investigation to establish clinically meaningful criteria for continuous depressive symptom data in pregnant women is required. This result may have implications relating to prevention and management options for depression during pregnancy. The observed trend between planned sitting and depressive symptom scores is consistent with literature based on leisure-time sitting behaviour in general population samples, and suggests that further research in this area, with larger samples of pregnant women and more specific sitting data is required to explore potential associations between activities such as television viewing and depressive symptoms, as this may be an area of behaviour that is amenable to modification.

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Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) has a 30 year history as one of the most used concepts in entrepreneurship research. “Recent attention in formal sessions at the Academy of Management conference programs confirm Entrepreneurial Orientation as a primary construct with a majority of Entrepreneurship Division sponsored sessions devoted to studies using EO related measures”, as reported by the 2010 division program chair, Per Davidson (Roberts, 2010: 9). However, questions continue to be raised concerning over-dependence on parts of one strategic scale, possible inappropriate or under-theorized adaptations, and the lack of theoretical development on application and performance variance in emergent, organizational, and socioeconomic settings. One recent area of investigation in analysis, methods, theory and application concerns an “EO gestalt”, focusing on the family of EO-related measures and theory, rather than on one or more dimensions, in order to explore the theory and process of the Entrepreneurial Orientation phenomenon. The goals of the 4th Annual EO3 PDW are to enlighten researchers on the development of Entrepreneurial Orientation theory and related scales, balance the use of Entrepreneurial Orientation current knowledge with new research frontiers suggested by EO3 scholars’ questions, and transcend boundaries in the discoveries undertaken in the shared interdisciplinary and cross-cultural research agenda currently developing for Entrepreneurial Orientation concepts. Going into its forth year, the EO3 PDW has been pivotal in formalizing discussion, pushing research forward, and gaining insights from experienced and cutting edge scholars, as it provides a point of reference for coalescing research questions and findings surrounding this important concept.

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Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.

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Biologists are increasingly conscious of the critical role that noise plays in cellular functions such as genetic regulation, often in connection with fluctuations in small numbers of key regulatory molecules. This has inspired the development of models that capture this fundamentally discrete and stochastic nature of cellular biology - most notably the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The SSA simulates a temporally homogeneous, discrete-state, continuous-time Markov process, and of course the corresponding probabilities and numbers of each molecular species must all remain positive. While accurately serving this purpose, the SSA can be computationally inefficient due to very small time stepping so faster approximations such as the Poisson and Binomial τ-leap methods have been suggested. This work places these leap methods in the context of numerical methods for the solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Poisson noise. This allows analogues of Euler-Maruyuma, Milstein and even higher order methods to be developed through the Itô-Taylor expansions as well as similar derivative-free Runge-Kutta approaches. Numerical results demonstrate that these novel methods compare favourably with existing techniques for simulating biochemical reactions by more accurately capturing crucial properties such as the mean and variance than existing methods.

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This study examined the lifetime and 4-week prevalence of postcoital dysphoria (PCD) and its relationship with psychological distress and reports of past sexual abuse. Amongst 222 female university students, 32.9% reported having ever experienced PCD while 10% reported experiencing PCD in the previous four weeks. Multiple regression analyses revealed support for the hypothesis that lifetime and 4-week prevalence of PCD would be positively correlated with psychological distress. Lifetime prevalence of PCD, but not 4-week prevalence, correlated with reports of childhood sexual abuse. These factors explained only minimal variance in PCD prevalence, prompting further research into this significantly under-investigated sexual difficulty.

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Statistics of the estimates of tricoherence are obtained analytically for nonlinear harmonic random processes with known true tricoherence. Expressions are presented for the bias, variance, and probability distributions of estimates of tricoherence as functions of the true tricoherence and the number of realizations averaged in the estimates. The expressions are applicable to arbitrary higher order coherence and arbitrary degree of interaction between modes. Theoretical results are compared with those obtained from numerical simulations of nonlinear harmonic random processes. Estimation of true values of tricoherence given observed values is also discussed

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Continuous user authentication with keystroke dynamics uses characters sequences as features. Since users can type characters in any order, it is imperative to find character sequences (n-graphs) that are representative of user typing behavior. The contemporary feature selection approaches do not guarantee selecting frequently-typed features which may cause less accurate statistical user-representation. Furthermore, the selected features do not inherently reflect user typing behavior. We propose four statistical based feature selection techniques that mitigate limitations of existing approaches. The first technique selects the most frequently occurring features. The other three consider different user typing behaviors by selecting: n-graphs that are typed quickly; n-graphs that are typed with consistent time; and n-graphs that have large time variance among users. We use Gunetti’s keystroke dataset and k-means clustering algorithm for our experiments. The results show that among the proposed techniques, the most-frequent feature selection technique can effectively find user representative features. We further substantiate our results by comparing the most-frequent feature selection technique with three existing approaches (popular Italian words, common n-graphs, and least frequent ngraphs). We find that it performs better than the existing approaches after selecting a certain number of most-frequent n-graphs.

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There are many applications in aeronautical/aerospace engineering where some values of the design parameters states cannot be provided or determined accurately. These values can be related to the geometry(wingspan, length, angles) and or to operational flight conditions that vary due to the presence of uncertainty parameters (Mach, angle of attack, air density and temperature, etc.). These uncertainty design parameters cannot be ignored in engineering design and must be taken into the optimisation task to produce more realistic and reliable solutions. In this paper, a robust/uncertainty design method with statistical constraints is introduced to produce a set of reliable solutions which have high performance and low sensitivity. Robust design concept coupled with Multi Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) is defined by applying two statistical sampling formulas; mean and variance/standard deviation associated with the optimisation fitness/objective functions. The methodology is based on a canonical evolution strategy and incorporates the concepts of hierarchical topology, parallel computing and asynchronous evaluation. It is implemented for two practical Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) design problems; the flrst case considers robust multi-objective (single disciplinary: aerodynamics) design optimisation and the second considers a robust multidisciplinary (aero structures) design optimisation. Numerical results show that the solutions obtained by the robust design method with statistical constraints have a more reliable performance and sensitivity in both aerodynamics and structures when compared to the baseline design.

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BACKGROUND: Data from prior health scares suggest that an avian influenza outbreak will impact on people’s intention to donate blood; however research exploring this is scarce. Using an augmented theory of planned behavior (TPB), incorporating threat perceptions alongside the rational decision-making components of the TPB, the current study sought to identify predictors of blood donors’ intentions to donate during two phases of an avian influenza outbreak. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Blood donors (N = 172) completed an on-line survey assessing the standard TPB predictors as well as measures of threat perceptions from the health belief model (HBM; i.e., perceived susceptibility and severity). Path analyses examined the utility of the augmented TPB to predict donors’ intentions to donate during a low- and high-risk phase of an avian influenza outbreak. RESULTS: In both phases, the model provided a good fit to the data explaining 69% (low risk) and 72% (high risk) of the variance in intentions. Attitude, subjective norm, and perceived susceptibility significantly predicted donor intentions in both phases. Within the low-risk phase, gender was an additional significant predictor of intention, while in the high-risk phase, perceived behavioral control was significantly related to intentions. CONCLUSION: An augmented TPB model can be used to predict donors’ intentions to donate blood in a low-risk and a high-risk phase of an outbreak of avian influenza. As such, the results provide important insights into donors’ decision-making that can be used by blood agencies to maintain the blood supply in the context of an avian influenza outbreak.

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Annually, in Australia, 10-15% of all road-related fatalities involve pedestrians. Of those pedestrians fatally injured, approximately 45% were walking while intoxicated or 'drink walking'. Drink walking is increasing in prevalence and younger persons may be especially prone to engage in this behaviour and, thus, are at heightened risk of being injured or killed. Presently, limited research is available regarding the factors which influence individuals to drink walk. This study explored young people's (17-25 years) intentions to drink walk, using an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Participants (N = 215), completed a self-report questionnaire which assessed the standard TPB constructs (attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control) as well as the extended constructs of risk perception, anticipated regret, and past behaviour. It was hypothesised that the standard TPB constructs would significantly predict individuals' reported intentions to drink walk and that the additional constructs would predict intentions over and above the TPB constructs. The TPB variables significantly predicted 63.2% of the variance in individuals' reported intentions to drink walk, and the additional variables, combined, explained a further 6.1% of the variance. Of the additional constructs, anticipated regret and past behaviour, but not risk perception, were significant predictors of drink walking intentions. As one of the first studies to provide a theoretically-based investigation of factors influencing individuals' drink walking intentions, the current study's findings have potentially significant implications for understanding young people's decisions to drink walk and the design of future countermeasures to ultimately reduce this behaviour.

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Background We investigated the geographical variation of water supply and sanitation indicators (WS&S) and their role to the risk of schistosomiasis and hookworm infection in school age children in West Africa. The aim was to predict large-scale geographical variation in WS&S, quantify the attributable risk of S. haematobium, S. mansoni and hookworm infections due to WS&S and identify communities where sustainable transmission control could be targeted across the region. Methods National cross-sectional household-based demographic health surveys were conducted in 24,542 households in Burkina Faso, Ghana and Mali, in 2003–2006. We generated spatially-explicit predictions of areas without piped water, toilet facilities and finished floors in West Africa, adjusting for household covariates. Using recently published helminth prevalence data we developed Bayesian geostatistical models (MGB) of S. haematobium, S. mansoni and hookworm infection in West Africa including environmental and the mapped outputs for WS&S. Using these models we estimated the effect of WS&S on parasite risk, quantified their attributable fraction of infection, and mapped the risk of infection in West Africa. Findings Our maps show that most areas in West Africa are very poorly served by water supply except in major urban centers. There is a better geographical coverage for toilet availability and improved household flooring. We estimated smaller attributable risks for water supply in S. mansoni (47%) compared to S. haematobium (71%), and 5% of hookworm cases could be averted by improving sanitation. Greater levels of inadequate sanitation increased the risk of schistosomiasis, and increased levels of unsafe water supply increased the risk of hookworm. The role of floor type for S. haematobium infection (21%) was comparable to that of S. mansoni (16%), but was significantly higher for hookworm infection (86%). S. haematobium and hookworm maps accounting for WS&S show small clusters of maximal prevalence areas in areas bordering Burkina Faso and Mali smaller. The map of S. mansoni shows that this parasite is much more wide spread across the north of the Niger River basin than previously predicted. Interpretation Our maps identify areas where the Millennium Development Goal for water and sanitation is lagging behind. Our results show that WS&S are important contributors to the burden of major helminth infections of children in West Africa. Including information about WS&S as well as the “traditional” environmental risk factors in spatial models of helminth risk yielded a substantial gain both in model fit and at explaining the proportion of spatial variance in helminth risk. Mapping the distribution of infection risk adjusted for WS&S allowed the identification of communities in West Africa where integrative preventive chemotherapy and engineering interventions will yield the greatest public health benefits.

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Many studies into construction procurement methods reveal evidence of a need to change the culture and attitude in the construction industry, transition from traditional adversarial relationships to cooperative and collaborative relationships. At the same time there is also increasing concern and discussion on alternative procurement methods, involving a movement away from traditional procurement systems. Relational contracting approaches, such as partnering and relationship management, are business strategies that align the objectives of clients, commercial participants and stakeholders. It provides a collaborative environment and a framework for all participants to adapt their behaviour to project objectives and allows for engagement of those subcontractors and suppliers down the supply chain. The efficacy of relationship management in the client and contractor groups is proven and well documented. However, the industry has a history of slow implementation of relational contracting down the supply chain. Furthermore, there exists little research on relationship management conducted in the supply chain context. This research aims to explore the association between relational contracting structures and processes and supply chain sustainability in the civil engineering construction industry. It endeavours to shed light on the practices and prerequisites for relationship management implementation success and for supply sustainability to develop. The research methodology is a triangulated approach based on Cheung.s (2006) earlier research where questionnaire survey, interviews and case studies were conducted. This new research includes a face-to-face questionnaire survey that was carried out with 100 professionals from 27 contracting organisations in Queensland from June 2008 to January 2009. A follow-up survey sub-questionnaire, further examining project participants. perspectives was sent to another group of professionals (as identified in the main questionnaire survey). Statistical analysis including multiple regression, correlation, principal component factor analysis and analysis of variance were used to identify the underlying dimensions and test the relationships among variables. Interviews and case studies were conducted to assist in providing a deeper understanding as well as explaining findings of the quantitative study. The qualitative approaches also gave the opportunity to critique and validate the research findings. This research presents the implementation of relationship management from the contractor.s perspective. Findings show that the adaption of relational contracting approach in the supply chain is found to be limited; contractors still prefer to keep the suppliers and subcontractors at arm.s length. This research shows that the degree of match and mismatch between organisational structuring and organisational process has an impact on staff.s commitment level and performance effectiveness. Key issues affecting performance effectiveness and relationship effectiveness include total influence between parties, access to information, personal acquaintance, communication process, risk identification, timely problem solving and commercial framework. Findings also indicate that alliance and Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) projects achieve higher performance effectiveness at both short-term and long-term levels compared to projects with either no or partial relationship management adopted.

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Background: It is predicted that China will have the largest number of cases of dementia in the world by 2025 (Ferri et al., 2005). Research has demonstrated that caring for family members with dementia can be a long-term, burdensome activity resulting in physical and emotional distress and impairment (Pinquart & Sorensen, 2003b). The establishment of family caregiver supportive services in China can be considered urgent; and the knowledge of the caregiving experience and related influencing factors is necessary to inform such services. Nevertheless, in the context of rapid demographic and socioeconomic change, the impact of caregiving for rural and urban Chinese adult-child caregivers may be different, and different needs in supportive services may therefore be expected. Objectives: The aims of this research were 1) to examine the potential differences existing in the caregiving experience between rural and urban adult-child caregivers caring for parents with dementia in China; and 2) to examine the potential differences existing in the influencing factors of the caregiving experience for rural as compared with urban adult-child caregivers caring for parents with dementia in China. Based on the literature review and Kramer.s (1997) caregiver adaptation model, six concepts and their relationships of caregiving experience were studied: severity of the care receivers. dementia, caregivers. appraisal of role strain and role gain, negative and positive well-being outcomes, and health related quality of life. Furthermore, four influencing factors (i.e., filial piety, social support, resilience, and personal mastery) were studied respectively. Methods: A cross-sectional, comparative design was used to achieve the aims of the study. A questionnaire, which was designed based on the literature review and on Kramer.s (1997) caregiver adaptation model, was completed by 401 adult-child caregivers caring for their parents with dementia from the mental health outpatient departments in five hospitals in the Yunnan province, P.R. China. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was employed as the main statistical technique for data analyses. Other statistical techniques (e.g., t-tests and Chi-Square tests) were also conducted to compare the demographic characteristics and the measured variables between rural and urban groups. Results: For the first research aim, the results indicated that urban adult-child caregivers in China experienced significantly greater strain and negative well-being outcomes than their rural peers; whereas, the difference on the appraisal of role gain and positive outcomes was nonsignificant between the two groups. The results also indicated that the amounts of severity of care receivers. dementia and caregivers. health related quality of life do not have the same meanings between the two groups. Thus, the levels of these two concepts were not comparable between the rural and urban groups in this study. Moreover, the results also demonstrated that the negative direct effect of gain on negative outcomes in urban caregivers was stronger than that in rural caregivers, suggesting that the urban caregivers tended to use appraisal of role gain to protect themselves from negative well-being outcomes to a greater extent. In addition, the unexplained variance in strain in the urban group was significantly more than that in the rural group, suggesting that there were other unmeasured variables besides the severity of care receivers. dementia which would predict strain in urban caregivers compared with their rural peers. For the second research aim, the results demonstrated that rural adult-child caregivers reported a significantly higher level of filial piety and more social support than their urban counterparts, although the two groups did not significantly differ on the levels of their resilience and personal mastery. Furthermore, although the mediation effects of these four influencing factors on both positive and negative aspects remained constant across rural and urban adult-child caregivers, urban caregivers tended to be more effective in using personal mastery to protect themselves from role strain than rural caregivers, which in turn protects them more from the negative well-being outcomes than was the case with their rural peers. Conclusions: The study extends the application of Kramer.s caregiving adaptation process model (Kramer, 1997) to a sample of adult-child caregivers in China by demonstrating that both positive and negative aspects of caregiving may impact on the caregiver.s health related quality of life, suggesting that both aspects should be targeted in supportive interventions for Chinese family caregivers. Moreover, by demonstrating partial mediation effects, the study provides four influencing factors (i.e., filial piety, social support, resilience, and personal mastery) as specific targets for clinical interventions. Furthermore, the study found evidence that urban adult-child caregivers had more negative but similar positive experience compared to their rural peers, suggesting that the establishment of supportive services for urban caregivers may be more urgent at present stage in China. Additionally, since urban caregivers tended to use appraisal of role gain and personal mastery to protect themselves from negative well-being outcomes than rural caregivers to a greater extend, interventions targeting utility of gain or/and personal mastery to decrease negative outcomes might be more effective in urban caregivers than in rural caregivers. On the other hand, as cultural expectations and expression of filial piety tend to be more traditional in rural areas, interventions targeting filial piety could be more effective among rural caregivers. Last but not least, as rural adult-child caregivers have more existing natural social support than their urban counterparts, mobilising existing natural social support resources may be more beneficial for rural caregivers, whereas, formal supports (e.g., counselling services, support groups and adult day care centres) should be enhanced for urban caregivers.

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Computer vision is an attractive solution for uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) collision avoidance, due to the low weight, size and power requirements of hardware. A two-stage paradigm has emerged in the literature for detection and tracking of dim targets in images, comprising of spatial preprocessing, followed by temporal filtering. In this paper, we investigate a hidden Markov model (HMM) based temporal filtering approach. Specifically, we propose an adaptive HMM filter, in which the variance of model parameters is refined as the quality of the target estimate improves. Filters with high variance (fat filters) are used for target acquisition, and filters with low variance (thin filters) are used for target tracking. The adaptive filter is tested in simulation and with real data (video of a collision-course aircraft). Our test results demonstrate that our adaptive filtering approach has improved tracking performance, and provides an estimate of target heading not present in previous HMM filtering approaches.

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Preterm infants commence breastfeeding when health-care professionals deem them to be ready. However, the optimal timing for commencement of breastfeeding is unclear. Currently, there is little guidance for neonatal care providers to decide when to initiate breastfeeding among preterm infants. A mixed-methods study was conducted to develop and test the Preterm Sucking Readiness (PTSR) scale in four phases. The first phase involved a chart audit to explore the use of age as a criterion by investigating when preterm infants meet feeding milestones as well as other factors that may affect an infant’s readiness to engage in nutritive sucking behaviour. The second phase utilised focus groups to explore and define how neonatal care providers decide when to commence breastfeeding. To gain consensus on the criteria mentioned by the focus groups, a Delphi survey was conducted in phase 3, involving neonatal providers across Australia and New Zealand. Phase 4 of the study involved an observational study that was used to test the six-item PTSR. The age at which specific feeding milestones were reached was consistent with what has been previously described in the literature. The chart audit showed that the time taken to the first feeding attempt in the preterm infant population was affected by gestational age at birth, birth weight, and specific interventions. Staff also considered age along with other criteria when deciding when to initiate feeding. Consensus on nine criteria for inclusion into the six-item PTSR was achieved using the Delphi technique. Three items of PTSR showed significant differences between the preterm and fullterm infant groups. Only two items, feeding-readiness behaviour and low pulse oximetry during handling, explained the variance in breastfeeding behaviour. The inter-rater variability ranged between moderate and very good for the PTSR items. The results of this study indicate the importance of assessing behavioural cues as an indication of breastfeeding readiness in the preterm infant population, once an infant is deemed physiologically stable. Age continues to be a factor in some clinicians' decisions to commence breastfeeding. However, age alone cannot be used to decide if an infant is ready to engage in breastfeeding. Further research is needed to confirm these findings.