Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modeling

A persistent question in the development of models for macroeconomic policy analysis has been the relative role of economic theory and evidence in their construction. This paper looks at some popular strategies that involve setting up a theoretical or conceptual model (CM) which is transformed to match the data and then made operational for policy analysis. A dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed that is similar to standard CMs. After calibration to UK data it is used to examine the utility of formal econometric methods in assessing the match of the CM to the data and also to evaluate some standard model-building strategies. Keywords: Policy oriented economic modeling; Model evaluation; VAR models

Modeling factors that influence exercise and dietary change among midlife Australian women: results from the Healthy Aging of Women Study

The objective of this study was to investigate the factors that influence midlife women to make positive exercise and dietary changes. In late 2005 questionnaires were mailed to 866 women aged 51–66 years from rural and urban locations in Queensland, Australia and participating in Stage 2 of the Healthy Aging of Women Study. The questionnaires sought data on socio-demographics, body mass index (BMI), chronic health conditions, self-efficacy, exercise and dietary behavior change since age 40, and health-related quality of life. Five hundred and sixty four (69%) were completed and returned by early 2006. Data analysis comprised descriptive and bivariate statistics and structural equation modeling. The results showed that midlife is a significant time for women to make positive health behavior changes. Approximately one-third of the sample (34.6%) indicated that they had increased their exercise and around 60% had made an effort to eat more healthily since age 40. Modeling showed self-efficacy to be important in making both exercise and dietary changes. Although education appeared to influence self-efficacy in relation to exercise change, this was not the case for dietary change. The study has application for programs promoting healthy aging among women, and implies that those with low education, high BMI and poor mental health may need considerable support to improve their lifestyles.

Analysis of primary user duty cycle impact on spectrum sensing performance

Spectrum sensing is considered to be one of the most important tasks in cognitive radio. Many sensing detectors have been proposed in the literature, with the common assumption that the primary user is either fully present or completely absent within the window of observation. In reality, there are scenarios where the primary user signal only occupies a fraction of the observed window. This paper aims to analyse the effect of the primary user duty cycle on spectrum sensing performance through the analysis of a few common detectors. Simulations show that the probability of detection degrades severely with reduced duty cycle regardless of the detection method. Furthermore we show that reducing the duty cycle has a greater degradation on performance than lowering the signal strength.

New Media and Public Communication: Mapping Australian User-Created Content in Online Social Networks

Presentation describling a project in data intensive research in the humanities. Measuring activity of publically available data in social networks such as Blogosphere, Twitter, Flickr, YouTube

An architecture for user configurable mobile collaborative geographic applications

Geographic information is increasingly being touted for use in research and industrial projects. While the technology is now available and affordable, there is a lack of easy to use software that takes advantage of geographic information. This is an important problem because users are often researchers or scientists who have insufficient software skills, and by providing applications that are easier to use, time and financial resources can be taken from training and be better applied to the actual research and development work. A solution for this problem must cater for the user and research needs. In particular it must allow for mobile operation for fieldwork, flexibility or customisability of data input, sharing of data with other tools and collaborative capabilities for the usual teamwork environment. This thesis has developed a new architecture and data model to achieve the solution. The result is the Mobile Collaborative Annotation framework providing an implementation of the new architecture and data model. Mobile Collaborative Mapping implements the framework as a Web 2.0 mashup rich internet application and has proven to be an effective solution through its positive application to a case study with fieldwork scientists. This thesis has contributed to research into mobile computing, collaborative computing and geospatial systems by creating a simpler entry point to mobile geospatial applications, enabling simplified collaboration and providing tangible time savings.

Analytical modeling and sensitivity analysis for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks

This paper presents a model for estimation of average travel time and its variability on signalized urban networks using cumulative plots. The plots are generated based on the availability of data: a) case-D, for detector data only; b) case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different degrees of saturation and different detector detection intervals is consistent for case-DSS and case-DS whereas, for case-D the performance is inconsistent. The sensitivity analysis of the model for case-D indicates that it is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Application of micro CT and computation modeling in bone tissue engineering

Computer aided technologies, medical imaging, and rapid prototyping has created new possibilities in biomedical engineering. The systematic variation of scaffold architecture as well as the mineralization inside a scaffold/bone construct can be studied using computer imaging technology and CAD/CAM and micro computed tomography (CT). In this paper, the potential of combining these technologies has been exploited in the study of scaffolds and osteochondral repair. Porosity, surface area per unit volume and the degree of interconnectivity were evaluated through imaging and computer aided manipulation of the scaffold scan data. For the osteochondral model, the spatial distribution and the degree of bone regeneration were evaluated. In this study the versatility of two softwares Mimics (Materialize), CTan and 3D realistic visualization (Skyscan) were assessed, too.

The ontological deficiencies of process modeling in practice

Business process modeling is widely regarded as one of the most popular forms of conceptual modeling. However, little is known about the capabilities and deficiencies of process modeling grammars and how existing deficiencies impact actual process modeling practice. This paper is a first contribution towards a theory-driven, exploratory empirical investigation of the ontological deficiencies of process modeling with the industry standard Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN). We perform an analysis of BPMN using a theory of ontological expressiveness. Through a series of semi-structured interviews with BPMN adopters we explore empirically the actual use of this grammar. Nine ontological deficiencies related to the practice of modeling with BPMN are identified, for example, the capture of business rules and the specification of process decompositions. We also uncover five contextual factors that impact on the use of process modeling grammars, such as tool support and modeling conventions. We discuss implications for research and practice, highlighting the need for consideration of representational issues and contextual factors in decisions relating to BPMN adoption in organizations.

Modeling, stability analysis and control of microgrid

With the increase in the level of global warming, renewable energy based distributed generators (DGs) will increasingly play a dominant role in electricity production. Distributed generation based on solar energy (photovoltaic and solar thermal), wind, biomass, mini-hydro along with use of fuel cells and micro turbines will gain considerable momentum in the near future. A microgrid consists of clusters of load and distributed generators that operate as a single controllable system. The interconnection of the DG to the utility/grid through power electronic converters has raised concern about safe operation and protection of the equipments. Many innovative control techniques have been used for enhancing the stability of microgrid as for proper load sharing. The most common method is the use of droop characteristics for decentralized load sharing. Parallel converters have been controlled to deliver desired real power (and reactive power) to the system. Local signals are used as feedback to control converters, since in a real system, the distance between the converters may make the inter-communication impractical. The real and reactive power sharing can be achieved by controlling two independent quantities, frequency and fundamental voltage magnitude. In this thesis, an angle droop controller is proposed to share power amongst converter interfaced DGs in a microgrid. As the angle of the output voltage can be changed instantaneously in a voltage source converter (VSC), controlling the angle to control the real power is always beneficial for quick attainment of steady state. Thus in converter based DGs, load sharing can be performed by drooping the converter output voltage magnitude and its angle instead of frequency. The angle control results in much lesser frequency variation compared to that with frequency droop. An enhanced frequency droop controller is proposed for better dynamic response and smooth transition between grid connected and islanded modes of operation. A modular controller structure with modified control loop is proposed for better load sharing between the parallel connected converters in a distributed generation system. Moreover, a method for smooth transition between grid connected and islanded modes is proposed. Power quality enhanced operation of a microgrid in presence of unbalanced and non-linear loads is also addressed in which the DGs act as compensators. The compensator can perform load balancing, harmonic compensation and reactive power control while supplying real power to the grid A frequency and voltage isolation technique between microgrid and utility is proposed by using a back-to-back converter. As utility and microgrid are totally isolated, the voltage or frequency fluctuations in the utility side do not affect the microgrid loads and vice versa. Another advantage of this scheme is that a bidirectional regulated power flow can be achieved by the back-to-back converter structure. For accurate load sharing, the droop gains have to be high, which has the potential of making the system unstable. Therefore the choice of droop gains is often a tradeoff between power sharing and stability. To improve this situation, a supplementary droop controller is proposed. A small signal model of the system is developed, based on which the parameters of the supplementary controller are designed. Two methods are proposed for load sharing in an autonomous microgrid in rural network with high R/X ratio lines. The first method proposes power sharing without any communication between the DGs. The feedback quantities and the gain matrixes are transformed with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ratio. The second method involves minimal communication among the DGs. The converter output voltage angle reference is modified based on the active and reactive power flow in the line connected at point of common coupling (PCC). It is shown that a more economical and proper power sharing solution is possible with the web based communication of the power flow quantities. All the proposed methods are verified through PSCAD simulations. The converters are modeled with IGBT switches and anti parallel diodes with associated snubber circuits. All the rotating machines are modeled in detail including their dynamics.

Statistical modeling to determine resonant frequency information present in combustion chamber pressure signals

A statistical modeling method to accurately determine combustion chamber resonance is proposed and demonstrated. This method utilises Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) through the use of the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm to yield a probability density function for the combustion chamber frequency and find the best estimate of the resonant frequency, along with uncertainty. The accurate determination of combustion chamber resonance is then used to investigate various engine phenomena, with appropriate uncertainty, for a range of engine cycles. It is shown that, when operating on various ethanol/diesel fuel combinations, a 20% substitution yields the least amount of inter-cycle variability, in relation to combustion chamber resonance.