Untangling the evidence : introducing an empirical model for evidence-based library and information practice

Introduction This research is the first to investigate the experiences of teacher-librarians as evidence-based practice. An empirically derived model is presented in this paper. Method This qualitative study utilised the expanded critical incident approach, and investigated the real-life experiences of fifteen Australian teacher-librarians, through semi-structured interviews and inductive data analysis. Data collection utilised semi-structured interviews, on-site observations, journaling and the rubric for contextual information. These approaches allowed each of the interviewees to tell their own story and provided richness to the data. Analysis The analysis involved two types of data categorisation: binary and thematic. Binary classification was used to identify factual details. Thematic analysis involved categorising the emerging themes. Results An empirically derived model for evidence-based practice was devised and associated critical findings identified. The results demonstrate that evidence-based practice for teacher-librarians is a holistic practice. It is not a linear, step-by-step process. Conclusions This study is significant for teacher-librarians and library and information professionals as it provides new understanding of evidence-based practice.

Adaptive estimation of hidden semi-Markov chains with parameterised transition probabilities and exponential decaying states

This paper develops maximum likelihood (ML) estimation schemes for finite-state semi-Markov chains in white Gaussian noise. We assume that the semi-Markov chain is characterised by transition probabilities of known parametric from with unknown parameters. We reformulate this hidden semi-Markov model (HSM) problem in the scalar case as a two-vector homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) problem in which the state consist of the signal augmented by the time to last transition. With this reformulation we apply the expectation Maximumisation (EM ) algorithm to obtain ML estimates of the transition probabilities parameters, Markov state levels and noise variance. To demonstrate our proposed schemes, motivated by neuro-biological applications, we use a damped sinusoidal parameterised function for the transition probabilities.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Multiphase porous media model for heat and mass transfer during drying of agricultural products

Modelling of food processing is complex because it involves sophisticated material and transport phenomena. Most of the agricultural products such fruits and vegetables are hygroscopic porous media containing free water, bound water, gas and solid matrix. Considering all phase in modelling is still not developed. In this article, a comprehensive porous media model for drying has been developed considering bound water, free water separately, as well as water vapour and air. Free water transport was considered as diffusion, pressure driven and evaporation. Bound water assumed to be converted to free water due to concentration difference and also can diffuse. Binary diffusion between water vapour and air was considered. Since, the model is fundamental physics based it can be applied to any drying applications and other food processing where heat and mass transfer takes place in porous media with significant evaporation and other phase change.

Development of a log-quadratic model to describe microbial inactivation, illustrated by thermal inactivation of Clostridium botulinum

In the commercial food industry, demonstration of microbiological safety and thermal process equivalence often involves a mathematical framework that assumes log-linear inactivation kinetics and invokes concepts of decimal reduction time (DT), z values, and accumulated lethality. However, many microbes, particularly spores, exhibit inactivation kinetics that are not log linear. This has led to alternative modeling approaches, such as the biphasic and Weibull models, that relax strong log-linear assumptions. Using a statistical framework, we developed a novel log-quadratic model, which approximates the biphasic and Weibull models and provides additional physiological interpretability. As a statistical linear model, the log-quadratic model is relatively simple to fit and straightforwardly provides confidence intervals for its fitted values. It allows a DT-like value to be derived, even from data that exhibit obvious "tailing." We also showed how existing models of non-log-linear microbial inactivation, such as the Weibull model, can fit into a statistical linear model framework that dramatically simplifies their solution. We applied the log-quadratic model to thermal inactivation data for the spore-forming bacterium Clostridium botulinum and evaluated its merits compared with those of popular previously described approaches. The log-quadratic model was used as the basis of a secondary model that can capture the dependence of microbial inactivation kinetics on temperature. This model, in turn, was linked to models of spore inactivation of Sapru et al. and Rodriguez et al. that posit different physiological states for spores within a population. We believe that the log-quadratic model provides a useful framework in which to test vitalistic and mechanistic hypotheses of inactivation by thermal and other processes. Copyright © 2009, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Toward a model for predicting magnetic susceptibility of bedrock regolith and soils

One of the Department of Defense's most pressing environmental problems is the efficient detection and identification of unexploded ordnance (UXO). In regions of highly magnetic soils, magnetic and electromagnetic sensors often detect anomalies that are of geologic origin, adding significantly to remediation costs. In order to develop predictive models for magnetic susceptibility, it is crucial to understand modes of formation and the spatial distribution of different iron oxides. Most rock types contain iron and their magnetic susceptibility is determined by the amount and form of iron oxides present. When rocks weather, the amount and form of the oxides change, producing concomitant changes in magnetic susceptibility. The type of iron oxide found in the weathered rock or regolith is a function of the duration and intensity of weathering, as well as the original content of iron in the parent material. The rate of weathering is controlled by rainfall and temperature; thus knowing the climate zone, the amount of iron in the lithology and the age of the surface will help predict the amount and forms of iron oxide. We have compiled analyses of the types, amounts, and magnetic properties of iron oxides from soils over a wide climate range, from semi arid grasslands, to temperate regions, and tropical forests. We find there is a predictable range of iron oxide type and magnetic susceptibility according to the climate zone, the age of the soil and the amount of iron in the unweathered regolith.

Model-based analysis and optimization of bioreactor for hematopoietic stem cell cultivation

One of the problems to be solved in attaining the full potentials of hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) applications is the limited availability of the cells. Growing HSCs in a bioreactor offers an alternative solution to this problem. Besides, it also offers the advantages of eliminating labour intensive process as well as the possible contamination involved in the periodic nutrient replenishments in the traditional T-flask stem cell cultivation. In spite of this, the optimization of HSC cultivation in a bioreactor has been barely explored. This manuscript discusses the development of a mathematical model to describe the dynamics in nutrient distribution and cell concentration of an ex vivo HSC cultivation in a microchannel perfusion bioreactor. The model was further used to optimize the cultivation by proposing three alternative feeding strategies in order to prevent the occurrence of nutrient limitation in the bioreactor. The evaluation of these strategies, the periodic step change increase in the inlet oxygen concentration, the periodic step change increase in the media inflow, and the feedback control of media inflow, shows that these strategies can successfully improve the cell yield of the bioreactor. In general, the developed model is useful for the design and optimization of bioreactor operation.

Experiencing information use for early career academics’ learning: A knowledge ecosystem model

Purpose This study explores the informed learning experiences of early career academics while building their networks for professional and personal development. The notion that information and learning are inextricably linked via the concept of ‘informed learning’ is used as a conceptual framework to gain a clearer picture of what informs early career academics while they learn and how they experience using that which informs their learning within this complex practice: to build, maintain and utilise their developmental networks. Methodology This research employs a qualitative framework using a constructivist grounded theory approach (Charmaz, 2006). Through semi-structured interviews with a sample of fourteen early career academics from across two Australian universities, data were generated to investigate the research questions. The study used the methods of constant comparison to create codes and categories towards theme development. Further examination considered the relationship between thematic categories to construct an original theoretical model. Findings The model presented is a ‘knowledge ecosystem’, which represents the core informed learning experience. The model consists of informal learning interactions such as relating to information to create knowledge and engaging in mutually supportive relationships with a variety of knowledge resources found in people who assist in early career development. Originality/Value Findings from this study present an alternative interpretation of informed learning that is focused on processes manifesting as human interactions with informing entities revolving around the contexts of reciprocal human relationships.

A novel population balance model for the dilute acid hydrolysis of hemicellulose

Acid hydrolysis is a popular pretreatment for removing hemicellulose from lignocelluloses in order to produce a digestible substrate for enzymatic saccharification. In this work, a novel model for the dilute acid hydrolysis of hemicellulose within sugarcane bagasse is presented and calibrated against experimental oligomer profiles. The efficacy of mathematical models as hydrolysis yield predictors and as vehicles for investigating the mechanisms of acid hydrolysis is also examined. Experimental xylose, oligomer (degree of polymerisation 2 to 6) and furfural yield profiles were obtained for bagasse under dilute acid hydrolysis conditions at temperatures ranging from 110C to 170C. Population balance kinetics, diffusion and porosity evolution were incorporated into a mathematical model of the acid hydrolysis of sugarcane bagasse. This model was able to produce a good fit to experimental xylose yield data with only three unknown kinetic parameters ka, kb and kd. However, fitting this same model to an expanded data set of oligomeric and furfural yield profiles did not successfully reproduce the experimental results. It was found that a ``hard-to-hydrolyse'' parameter, $\alpha$, was required in the model to ensure reproducibility of the experimental oligomer profiles at 110C, 125C and 140C. The parameters obtained through the fitting exercises at lower temperatures were able to be used to predict the oligomer profiles at 155C and 170C with promising results. The interpretation of kinetic parameters obtained by fitting a model to only a single set of data may be ambiguous. Although these parameters may correctly reproduce the data, they may not be indicative of the actual rate parameters, unless some care has been taken to ensure that the model describes the true mechanisms of acid hydrolysis. It is possible to challenge the robustness of the model by expanding the experimental data set and hence limiting the parameter space for the fitting parameters. The novel combination of ``hard-to-hydrolyse'' and population balance dynamics in the model presented here appears to stand up to such rigorous fitting constraints.

Limitations of a laboratory scale model in predicting optimal pilot scale conditions for dilute acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse

Pilot and industrial scale dilute acid pretreatment data can be difficult to obtain due to the significant infrastructure investment required. Consequently, models of dilute acid pretreatment by necessity use laboratory scale data to determine kinetic parameters and make predictions about optimal pretreatment conditions at larger scales. In order for these recommendations to be meaningful, the ability of laboratory scale models to predict pilot and industrial scale yields must be investigated. A mathematical model of the dilute acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse has previously been developed by the authors. This model was able to successfully reproduce the experimental yields of xylose and short chain xylooligomers obtained at the laboratory scale. In this paper, the ability of the model to reproduce pilot scale yield and composition data is examined. It was found that in general the model over predicted the pilot scale reactor yields by a significant margin. Models that appear very promising at the laboratory scale may have limitations when predicting yields on a pilot or industrial scale. It is difficult to comment whether there are any consistent trends in optimal operating conditions between reactor scale and laboratory scale hydrolysis due to the limited reactor datasets available. Further investigation is needed to determine whether the model has some efficacy when the kinetic parameters are re-evaluated by parameter fitting to reactor scale data, however, this requires the compilation of larger datasets. Alternatively, laboratory scale mathematical models may have enhanced utility for predicting larger scale reactor performance if bulk mass transport and fluid flow considerations are incorporated into the fibre scale equations. This work reinforces the need for appropriate attention to be paid to pilot scale experimental development when moving from laboratory to pilot and industrial scales for new technologies.

Numerical treatment of a two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model

A two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is considered. A second-order spatial accurate semi-implicit alternating direction method for a two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is proposed. Stability and convergence of the semi-implicit alternating direct method are established. Finally, some numerical examples are given to support our theoretical analysis. These numerical techniques can be used to simulate a two-dimensional variable order fractional FitzHugh-Nagumo model in a rectangular domain. This type of model can be used to describe how electrical currents flow through the heart, controlling its contractions, and are used to ascertain the effects of certain drugs designed to treat arrhythmia.

A comprehensive mechanistic kinetic model for dilute acid hydrolysis of switchgrass cellulose to glucose, 5-HMF and levulinic acid

Switchgrass was treated by 1% (w/w) H₂SO₄in batch tube reactors at temperatures ranging from 140–220°C for up to 60 minutes. In this study, release patterns of glucose, 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (5-HMF), and levulinic acid from switchgrass cellulose were investigated through a mechanistic kinetic model. The predictions were consistent with the measured products of interest when new parameters reflecting the effects of reaction limitations, such as cellulose crystallinity, acid soluble lignin–glucose complex (ASL–glucose) and humins that cannot be quantitatively analyzed, were included. The new mechanistic kinetic model incorporating these parameters simulated the experimental data with R² above 0.97. Results showed that glucose yield was most sensitive to variations in the parameter regarding the cellulose crystallinity at low temperatures (140–180°C), while the impact of crystallinity on the glucose yield became imperceptible at elevated temperatures (200–220 °C). Parameters related to the undesired products (e.g. ASL–glucose and humins) were the most sensitive factors compared with rate constants and other additional parameters in impacting the levulinic acid yield at elevated temperatures (200–220°C), while their impacts were negligible at 140–180°C. These new findings provide a more rational explanation for the kinetic changes in dilute acid pretreatment performance and suggest that the influences of cellulose crystallinity and undesired products including ASL–glucose and humins play key roles in determining the generation of glucose, 5-HMF and levulinic acid from biomass-derived cellulose.

Sport across cultures: Applications of the human capital model in refugee communities

When working with the world’s most vulnerable populations there are questions surrounding the salience of physical activity promotion programs given the multitude of basic needs that must first be met. Indeed, physical activity may be a low priority for individuals seeking safety, reunification with loved ones, and food for their families, as a subsistence lifestyle makes excess weight gain, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease irrelevant. Yet, when working with people from a refugee background for whom these challenges all too frequently apply, opportunities for sport and activity have repeatedly surfaced as desirable and needed, yet are utterly deficient. If we conceptualize physical activity purely as a chronic disease prevention tool, its significance within under-resourced communities is most assuredly lost; however, if we harness the power of physical activity to serve as an agent of positive social change, then it instantly becomes more meaningful and necessary.

Mathematical modeling for improved greenhouse gas balances, agro-ecosystems, and policy development: Lessons from the Australian experience

If the land sector is to make significant contributions to mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming decades, it must do so while concurrently expanding production of food and fiber. In our view, mathematical modeling will be required to provide scientific guidance to meet this challenge. In order to be useful in GHG mitigation policy measures, models must simultaneously meet scientific, software engineering, and human capacity requirements. They can be used to understand GHG fluxes, to evaluate proposed GHG mitigation actions, and to predict and monitor the effects of specific actions; the latter applications require a change in mindset that has parallels with the shift from research modeling to decision support. We compare and contrast 6 agro-ecosystem models (FullCAM, DayCent, DNDC, APSIM, WNMM, and AgMod), chosen because they are used in Australian agriculture and forestry. Underlying structural similarities in the representations of carbon flows though plants and soils in these models are complemented by a diverse range of emphases and approaches to the subprocesses within the agro-ecosystem. None of these agro-ecosystem models handles all land sector GHG fluxes, and considerable model-based uncertainty exists for soil C fluxes and enteric methane emissions. The models also show diverse approaches to the initialisation of model simulations, software implementation, distribution, licensing, and software quality assurance; each of these will differentially affect their usefulness for policy-driven GHG mitigation prediction and monitoring. Specific requirements imposed on the use of models by Australian mitigation policy settings are discussed, and areas for further scientific development of agro-ecosystem models for use in GHG mitigation policy are proposed.

Fate and transport of bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron in paddy fields: Experiments and model simulation

Experiments were conducted to determine the fate of bensulfuron-methyl (BSM) and imazosulfuron (IMS) under paddy conditions. Initially, laboratory experiments were conducted and the photolysis half-lives of the two herbicides were found to be much shorter than their hydrolysis half-lives in aqueous solutions. In the aerobic water–soil system, dissipation followed first-order kinetics with water half-lives of 9.1 and 11.0 days and soil half-lives of 12.4 and 18.5 days (first phase) and 35.0 and 44.1 days (second phase) for bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron, respectively. However, the anaerobic soil half-lives were only 12.7 and 9.8 days for BSM and IMS, respectively. The values of K d were determined to be 16.0 and 13.8 for BSM and IMS, respectively. Subsequent field measurements for the two herbicides revealed that dissipation of both herbicides in paddy water involved biphasic first-order kinetics, with the dissipation rates in the first phase being much faster than those in the second phase. The dissipation of bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron in the paddy surface soil were also followed biphasic first-order kinetics. These results were then used as input parameters for the PCPF-1 model to simulate the fate and transport of BSM and IMS in the paddy environment (water and 1-cm surface soil layer). The measured and simulated values agreed well and the mass balance error during the simulation period was −1.2 and 2.8% of applied pesticide, respectively, for BSM and IMS.