An investigation of the C77G and C772T variations within the human protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type C gene for association with multiple sclerosis in an Australian population

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common cause of neurological disability in young adults. The disease generally manifests in early to middle adulthood and causes various neurological deficits. Autoreactive T lymphocytes and their associated antigens have long been presumed important features of MS pathogenesis. The Protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type C gene (PTPRC) encodes the T-cell receptor CD45. Variations within PTPRC have been previously associated with diseases of autoimmune origin such as type 1 diabetes mellitus and Graves' disease. We set out to investigate two variants within the PTPRC gene, C77G and C772T in subjects with MS and matched healthy controls to determine whether significant differences exist in these markers in an Australian population. We employed high resolution melt analysis (HRM) and restriction length polymorphism (RFLP) techniques to determine genotypic and allelic frequencies. Our study found no significant difference between frequencies for PTPRC C77G by either genotype (Χ2 = 0.65, P = 0.72) or allele (Χ2 = 0.48, P = 0.49). Similarly, we did not find evidence to suggest an association between PTPRC C772T by genotype (Χ2 = 1.06, P = 0.59) or allele (Χ2 = 0.20, P = 0.66). Linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis showed strong linkage disequilibrium between the two tested markers (D' = 0.9970, SD = 0.0385). This study reveals no evidence to suggest that these markers are associated with MS in the tested Australian Caucasian population. Although the PTPRC gene has a significant role in regulating CD4+ and CD8+ autoreactive T-cells, interferon-beta responsiveness, and potentially other important processes, our study does not support a role for the two tested variants of this gene in MS susceptibility in the Australian population.

Damage assessment in beams and plates using variations in modal properties

Damage detection using modal properties is a widely accepted method. However, quantifying such damage using modal properties is still not well established. With this in mind, a research project is presently underway towards the development of a procedure to detect, locate and quantify damage in structural components using the variations in modal properties. A novel vibration based parameter called Vibration based Damage Index is introduced into the damage assessment procedure. This paper presents the early part of the research project which treats flexural members. The proposed procedure is validated using experimental data and/or theoretical techniques and illustrated through application. Outcomes of this research highlight the ability of the proposed procedure to successfully detect, locate and quantify damage in flexural structural components using the modal properties of the first few modes.

Decision making under pressure : a behavioural economics perspective

This research investigates the decision making process of individuals from revealed preferences in extreme environments or life-and-death situations, from a behavioral economics perspective. The empirical analysis of revealed behavioral preferences shows how the individual decision making process can deviate from the standard self-interested or “homo economicus” model in non-standard situations. The environments examined include: elite athletes in FIFA World and Euro Cups; climbing on Everest and the Himalaya; communication during 9/11 and risk seeking after the 2011 Brisbane floods. The results reveal that the interaction of culture and environment has a significant impact on the decision process, as social behaviors and institutions are intimately intertwined, which govern the processes of human behavior and interaction. Additionally, that risk attitudes are not set and that immediate environmental factors can induce a significant shift in an individuals risk seeking behaviors.

Public Economics and the Assessment of Tourism Developments and Policies

Public economics covers both topics in welfare economic of social (as opposed to private) interest and aspects of public finance. This chapter considers the application of two methods of social economic evaluation of tourist developments, namely, social cost-benefit analysis and economic impact analysis. The role of social cost-benefit analysis in the assessment of tourism is illustrated by its application to the evaluation of inbound tourism. This is followed by a discussion of taxes on tourism and subsidies to promote it. The principle focus is on hotel room taxes. The analysis of taxes on tourism involves both public finance and welfare economics issues. The scope for and desirability of applying the user-pays principle to tourism is then examined.

Past 140-year environmental record in the northern South China Sea : evidence from coral skeletal trace metal variations

About 140-year changes in the trace metals in Porites coral samples from two locations in the northern South China Sea were investigated. Results of PCA analyses suggest that near the coast, terrestrial input impacted behavior of trace metals by 28.4%, impact of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was 19.0%, contribution of war and infrastructure were 14.4% and 15.6% respectively. But for a location in the open sea, contribution of War and SST reached 33.2% and 16.5%, while activities of infrastructure and guano exploration reached 13.2% and 14.7%. While the spatiotemporal change model of Cu, Cd and Pb in seawater of the north area of South China Sea during 1986–1997 were reconstructed. It was found that in the sea area Cu and Cd contaminations were distributed near the coast while areas around Sanya, Hainan had high Pb levels because of the well-developed tourism related activities.

Intimate relationship status variations in violence against women : urban, suburban, and rural differences

Woman abuse varies across intimate relationship categories (e.g., marriage, divorce, separation). However, it is unclear whether relationship status variations in violence against women differ across urban, suburban, and rural areas. We test the hypothesis that rural females, regardless of their intimate partner relationship status, are at higher risk of intimate violence than their urban and suburban counterparts. Results indicate that marital status is an important aspect of the relationship between intimate victimization and geographic area and that rural divorced and separated females are victimized at rates exceeding their urban counterparts.

Spatial Patterns of Malaria Reported Deaths in Yunnan Province, China

Malaria has been a heavy social and health burden in the remote and poor areas in southern China. Analyses of malaria epidemic patterns can uncover important features of malaria transmission. This study identified spatial clusters, seasonal patterns, and geographic variations of malaria deaths at a county level in Yunnan, China, during 1991–2010. A discrete Poisson model was used to identify purely spatial clusters of malaria deaths. Logistic regression analysis was performed to detect changes in geographic patterns. The results show that malaria mortality had declined in Yunnan over the study period and the most likely spatial clusters (relative risk [RR] = 23.03–32.06, P < 0.001) of malaria deaths were identified in western Yunnan along the China–Myanmar border. The highest risk of malaria deaths occurred in autumn (RR = 58.91, P < 0.001) and summer (RR = 31.91, P < 0.001). The results suggested that the geographic distribution of malaria deaths was significantly changed with longitude, which indicated there was decreased mortality of malaria in eastern areas over the last two decades, although there was no significant change in latitude during the same period. Public health interventions should target populations in western Yunnan along border areas, especially focusing on floating populations crossing international borders.

Variations in acculturation and Australian physical education teacher education students' receptiveness to an alternative pedagogical approach to games teaching

Background The development of intelligent, thinking performers as a central theme in Physical Education curriculum documents worldwide has highlighted the need for an evolution of teaching styles from the dominant reproductive approach. This has prompted an Australian university to change the content and delivery of a games unit within their Physical Education Teacher Education (PETE) course and adopt a productive student centred approach that is compatible with current curriculum directives. The significance of prospective physical educators’ biographies on their receptiveness to this pedagogical innovation was studied to help recognise and understand potential differences and subsequently guide programme development to help improve the impact of teacher education. Purpose To investigate whether past school and sporting experiences are powerful influences on Australian PETE recruits’ initial perspectives about effective physical education teaching practice and their receptiveness to an alternative pedagogical approach. Participants and Setting 49 first year pre-service PETE students (53% male; 47% female; mean age 18.88 ± 1.57 years) undertaking a compulsory unit on games teaching at an Australian university volunteered to take part in the study and were grouped according to their highest level of representation in games, either school/club (n=13), regional (n=20), or state/national (n=16). Students experienced the constraints-led approach as learners and teachers during an 8-week games unit informed by nonlinear pedagogy and underpinned by motor learning theory. Data collection and Analysis Prior to the commencement of the unit participants completed part A of a two part mixed response questionnaire aimed at gathering data about their physical education and sporting background. The data were summarised using descriptive statistics. Pre and post intervention, participants completed part B responding, via Likert Scale with their opinion of the importance of each sub-component of the traditional reproductive style for an effective games teaching session. This resulted in a traditional reproductive games teaching belief score. For each sub-component, participants were invited to respond in more detail to justify their opinions. A one-way between groups analysis of variance (ANOVA), Tukey’s HSD Post Hoc Test and a two - tailed, paired samples t test were used to analyse the quantitative data. Content analysis was used to analyse the qualitative data. Findings The traditional, reproductive approach was the most frequently reported teaching approach used by the physical education teachers and sports coaches of participants in all groups. Prior to the commencement of the alternate games unit, participants in each representative level group held very strong custodial traditional reproductive games teaching beliefs. After experiencing the alternative games unit there were statistically significant differences in the traditional reproductive games teaching belief mean scores for each group, This combined with participants’ qualitative responses indicated a receptiveness to the alternative pedagogy. Conclusions The results of this present study show that, contrary to previous research undertaken in North America, in Australia, it is possible for PETE educators to change beliefs in order to overcome the constraint of acculturation and provide PETE students with the knowledge, understanding and belief in an alternate approach to teaching games in physical education compatible with curriculum documents.

Diurnal variations in ocular aberrations of human eyes

Purpose: To investigate the diurnal variations in ocular wavefront aberrations over two consecutive days in young adult subjects. Materials and methods: Measurements of both lower-order (sphero-cylindrical refractive powers) and higher-order (3rd and 4th order aberration terms) ocular aberrations were collected for 30 young adult subjects at ten different times over two consecutive days using a Hartmann-Shack aberrometer. Fifteen subjects were myopic and 15 were emmetropic. Five sets of measurements were collected each day at approximately 3 hourly intervals, with the first measurement taken at ~9 am and the final measurement at ~9 pm. Results: Spherical equivalent refraction (p = 0.029) and spherical aberration (p = 0.043) were both found to undergo significant diurnal variation over the two measurement days. The spherical equivalent was typically found to be at a maximum (i.e. most hyperopic) at the morning measurement, with a small myopic shift of 0.37 ± 0.15 D observed over the course of the day. The mean spherical aberration of all subjects (0.038 ± 0.048 μm) was found to be positive during the day and gradually became more negative into the evening, with a mean amplitude of change of 0.036 ± 0.02 μm. None of the other considered sphero-cylindrical refractive power components or higher-order aberrations exhibited significant diurnal variation over the two days of the experiment (p>0.05). Except for the lower-order astigmatism at 90/180 deg (p = 0.040), there were no significant differences between myopes and emmetropes in the magnitude and timing of the observed diurnal variations (p>0.05). Conclusions: Significant diurnal variations in spherical equivalent and spherical aberration were consistently observed over two consecutive days of measurement. Research and clinical applications requiring precise refractive error and wavefront measurements should take these diurnal changes into account when interpreting wavefront data.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

The impact of a congestion charging exemption on the demand for new low‐emission vehicles

Numerous initiatives have been employed around the world in order to address rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originating from the transport sector. These measures include: travel demand management (congestion‐charging), increased fuel taxes, alternative fuel subsidies and low‐emission vehicle (LEV) rebates. Incentivizing the purchase of LEVs has been one of the more prevalent approaches in attempting to tackle this global issue. LEVs, whilst having the advantage of lower emissions and, in some cases, more efficient fuel consumption, also bring the downsides of increased purchase cost, reduced convenience of vehicle fuelling, and operational uncertainty. To stimulate demand in the face of these challenges, various incentive‐based policies, such as toll exemptions, have been used by national and local governments to encourage the purchase of these types of vehicles. In order to address rising GHG emissions in Stockholm, and in line with the Swedish Government’s ambition to operate a fossil free fleet by 2030, a number of policies were implemented targeting the transport sector. Foremost amongst these was the combination of a congestion charge – initiated to discourage emissions‐intensive travel – and an exemption from this charge for some LEVs, established to encourage a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet. Although both policies shared the aim of reducing GHG emissions, the exemption for LEVs carried the risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the congestion charging scheme. As the number of vehicle owners choosing to transition to an eligible LEV increased, the congestion‐reduction effectiveness of the charging scheme weakened. In fact, policy makers quickly recognized this potential issue and consequently phased out the LEV exemption less than 18 months after its introduction (1). Several studies have investigated the demand for LEVs through stated‐preference (SP) surveys across multiple countries, including: Denmark (2), Germany (3, 4), UK (5), Canada (6), USA (7, 8) and Australia (9). Although each of these studies differed in approach, all involved SP surveys where differing characteristics between various types of vehicles, including LEVs, were presented to respondents and these respondents in turn made hypothetical decisions about which vehicle they would be most likely to purchase. Although these studies revealed a number of interesting findings in regards to the potential demand for LEVs, they relied on SP data. In contrast, this paper employs an approach where LEV choice is modelled by taking a retrospective view and by using revealed preference (RP) data. By examining the revealed preferences of vehicle owners in Stockholm, this study overcomes one of the principal limitations of SP data, namely that stated preferences may not in fact reflect individuals’ actual choices, such as when cost, time, and inconvenience factors are real rather than hypothetical. This paper’s RP approach involves modelling the characteristics of individuals who purchased new LEVs, whilst estimating the effect of the congestion charging exemption upon choice probabilities and subsequent aggregate demand. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the effectiveness of a toll exemption under revealed preference conditions, and by assessing the total effect of the policy based on key indicators for policy makers, including: vehicle owner home location, commuting patterns, number of children, age, gender and income. Extended Abstract Submission for Kuhmo Nectar Conference 2014 2 The two main research questions motivating this study were:  Which individuals chose to purchase a new LEV in Stockholm in 2008?; and,  How did the congestion charging exemption affect the aggregate demand for new LEVs in Stockholm in 2008? In order to answer these research questions the analysis was split into two stages. Firstly, a multinomial logit (MNL) model was used to identify which demographic characteristics were most significantly related to the purchase of an LEV over a conventional vehicle. The three most significant variables were found to be: intra‐cordon residency (positive); commuting across the cordon (positive); and distance of residence from the cordon (negative). In order to estimate the effect of the exemption policy on vehicle purchase choice, the model included variables to control for geographic differences in preferences, based on the location of the vehicle owners’ homes and workplaces in relation to the congestion‐charging cordon boundary. These variables included one indicator representing commutes across the cordon and another indicator representing intra‐cordon residency. The effect of the exemption policy on the probability of purchasing LEVs was estimated in the second stage of the analysis by focusing on the groups of vehicle owners that were most likely to have been affected by the policy i.e. those commuting across the cordon boundary (in both directions). Given the inclusion of the indicator variable representing commutes across the cordon, it is assumed that the estimated coefficient of this variable captures the effect of the exemption policy on the utility of choosing to purchase an exempt LEV for these two groups of vehicle owners. The intra‐cordon residency indicator variable also controls for differences between the two groups, based upon direction of travel across the cordon boundary. A counter‐hypothesis to this assumption is that the coefficient of the variable representing commuting across the cordon boundary instead only captures geo‐demographic differences that lead to variations in LEV ownership across the different groups of vehicle owners in relation to the cordon boundary. In order to address this counter‐hypothesis, an additional analysis was performed on data from a city with a similar geodemographic pattern to Stockholm, Gothenburg ‐ Sweden’s second largest city. The results of this analysis provided evidence to support the argument that the coefficient of the variable representing commutes across the cordon was capturing the effect of the exemption policy. Based upon this framework, the predicted vehicle type shares were calculated using the estimated coefficients of the MNL model and compared with predicted vehicle type shares from a simulated scenario where the exemption policy was inactive. This simulated scenario was constructed by setting the coefficient for the variable representing commutes across the cordon boundary to zero for all observations to remove the utility benefit of the exemption policy. Overall, the procedure of this second stage of the analysis led to results showing that the exemption had a substantial effect upon the probability of purchasing and aggregate demand for exempt LEVs in Stockholm during 2008. By making use of unique evidence of revealed preferences of LEV owners, this study identifies the common characteristics of new LEV owners and estimates the effect of Stockholm's congestion charging exemption upon the demand for new LEVs during 2008. It was found that the variables that had the greatest effect upon the choice of purchasing an exempt LEV included intra‐cordon residency (positive), distance of home from the cordon (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). It was also determined that owners under the age of 30 years preferred non‐exempt LEVs (low CO2 LEVs), whilst those over the age of 30 years preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, it was apparent that those individuals living within the city had the highest propensity towards purchasing this vehicle type. A negative relationship between choosing an electric vehicle and the distance of an individuals’ residency from the cordon was also evident. Overall, the congestion charging exemption was found to have increased the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9%, with, as expected, a much stronger effect on those commuting across the boundary, with those living inside the cordon having a 13.1% increase, and those owners living outside the cordon having a 5.0% increase. This increase in demand corresponded to an additional 538 (+/‐ 93; 95% C.I.) new exempt LEVs purchased in Stockholm during 2008 (out of a total of 5 427; 9.9%). Policy makers can take note that an incentive‐based policy can increase the demand for LEVs and appears to be an appropriate approach to adopt when attempting to reduce transport emissions through encouraging a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet.

Seasonal amplitude of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China : a call for attention to neglected regions

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne viral disease characterized by fever, hemorrhagic, kidney damage and hypotension, is caused by different species of hantaviruses [1]. Every year, HFRS affects thousands of people in Asia, and more than 90% of these cases are reported in China [2, 3]. Due to its high fatality, HFRS has attracted considerable research attention, and prior studies have predominantly focused on quantifying HFRS morbidity [4], identifying high risk areas [5] and populations [6], or exploring peak time of HFRS occurrence [3]. To date, no study has assessed the seasonal amplitude of HFRS in China, even though it reveals the seasonal fluctuation and thus may provide pivotal information on the possibility of HFRS outbreaks.

Measuring patient flow variations : a cross-organisational process mining approach

Variations that exist in the treatment of patients (with similar symptoms) across different hospitals do substantially impact the quality and costs of healthcare. Consequently, it is important to understand the similarities and differences between the practices across different hospitals. This paper presents a case study on the application of process mining techniques to measure and quantify the differences in the treatment of patients presenting with chest pain symptoms across four South Australian hospitals. Our case study focuses on cross-organisational benchmarking of processes and their performance. Techniques such as clustering, process discovery, performance analysis, and scientific workflows were applied to facilitate such comparative analyses. Lessons learned in overcoming unique challenges in cross-organisational process mining, such as ensuring population comparability, data granularity comparability, and experimental repeatability are also presented.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.