Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Reliability prediction using the non-parametric explicit hazard model : a case study

Survival probability prediction using covariate-based hazard approach is a known statistical methodology in engineering asset health management. We have previously reported the semi-parametric Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) which incorporates three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators for hazard prediction. This model assumes the baseline hazard has the form of the Weibull distribution. To avoid this assumption, this paper presents the non-parametric EHM which is a distribution-free covariate-based hazard model. In this paper, an application of the non-parametric EHM is demonstrated via a case study. In this case study, survival probabilities of a set of resistance elements using the non-parametric EHM are compared with the Weibull proportional hazard model and traditional Weibull model. The results show that the non-parametric EHM can effectively predict asset life using the condition indicator, operating environment indicator, and failure history.

Component reliability estimations without field data

Maintenance activities in a large-scale engineering system are usually scheduled according to the lifetimes of various components in order to ensure the overall reliability of the system. Lifetimes of components can be deduced by the corresponding probability distributions with parameters estimated from past failure data. While failure data of the components is not always readily available, the engineers have to be content with the primitive information from the manufacturers only, such as the mean and standard deviation of lifetime, to plan for the maintenance activities. In this paper, the moment-based piecewise polynomial model (MPPM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of the reliability probability distribution of the products when only the mean and standard deviation of the product lifetime are known. This method employs a group of polynomial functions to estimate the two parameters of the Weibull Distribution according to the mathematical relationship between the shape parameter of two-parameters Weibull Distribution and the ratio of mean and standard deviation. Tests are carried out to evaluate the validity and accuracy of the proposed methods with discussions on its suitability of applications. The proposed method is particularly useful for reliability-critical systems, such as railway and power systems, in which the maintenance activities are scheduled according to the expected lifetimes of the system components.

Application of reliability-centred maintenance technology on electric trains

This paper demonstrates the application of the reliability-centred maintenance (RCM) process to analyse and develop preventive maintenance tasks for electric multiple units (EMU) in the East Rail of the Kowloon-Canton Railway Corporation (KCRC). Two systems, the 25 kV electrical power supply and the air-conditioning system of the EMU, have been chosen for the study. RCM approach on the two systems is delineated step by step in the paper. This study confirms the feasibility and effectiveness of RCM applications on the maintenance of electric trains.

Sustainable urban development : formulation of indicator-based residential sustainability assessment framework for local level

Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to formulate a conceptual framework for urban sustainability indicators selection. This framework will be used to develop an indicator-based evaluation method for assessing the sustainability levels of residential neighbourhood developments in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach–We provide a brief overview of existing evaluation frameworks for sustainable development assessment. We then develop a conceptual Sustainable Residential Neighbourhood Assessment (SNA) framework utilising a four-pillar sustainability framework (environmental, social, economic and institutional) and a combination of domain-based and goal-based general frameworks. This merger offers the advantages of both individual frameworks, while also overcoming some of their weaknesses when used to develop the urban sustainability evaluation method for assessing residential neighbourhoods. Originality/value–This approach puts in evidence that many of the existing frameworks for evaluating urban sustainability do not extend their frameworks to include assessing housing sustainability at a local level. Practical implications–It is expected that the use of the indicator-based Sustainable Neighbourhood Assessment framework will present a potential mechanism for planners and developers to evaluate and monitor the sustainability performance of residential neighbourhood developments.

Use of ITS to improve level crossings safety : open issues

Level crossing crashes have been shown to result in enormous human and financial cost to society. According to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) [5] a total of 632 Railway Level crossing (RLX) collisions, between trains and road vehicles, occurred in Australia between 2001 and June 2009. The cost of RLX collisions runs into the tens of millions of dollars each year in Australia [6]. In addition, loss of life and injury are commonplace in instances where collisions occur. Based on estimates that 40% of rail related fatalities occur at level crossings [12], it is estimated that 142 deaths between 2001 and June 2009 occurred at RLX. The aim of this paper is to (i) summarise crash patterns in Australia, (ii) review existing international ITS interventions to improve level crossing and (iii) highlights open human factors research related issues. Human factors (e.g., driver error, lapses or violations) have been evidenced as a significant contributing factor in RLX collisions, with drivers of road vehicles particularly responsible for many collisions. Unintentional errors have been found to contribute to 46% of RLX collisions [6] and appear to be far more commonplace than deliberate violations. Humans have been found to be inherently inadequate at using the sensory information available to them to facilitate safe decision-making at RLX and tend to underestimate the speed of approaching large objects due to the non-linear increases in perceived size [6]. Collisions resulting from misjudgements of train approach speed and distance are common [20]. Thus, a fundamental goal for improved RLX safety is the provision of sufficient contextual information to road vehicle drivers to facilitate safe decision-making regarding crossing behaviours.

The effects of muscle fatigue on knee function during landing

The human knee acts as a sophisticated shock absorber during landing movements. The ability of the knee to perform this function in the real world is remarkable given that the context of the landing movement may vary widely between performances. For this reason, humans must be capable of rapidly adjusting the mechanical properties of the knee under impact load in order to satisfy many competing demands. However, the processes involved in regulating these properties in response to changing constraints remain poorly understood. In particular, the effects of muscle fatigue on knee function during step landing are yet to be fully explored. Fatigue of the knee muscles is significant for 2 reasons. First, it is thought to have detrimental effects on the ability of the knee to act as a shock absorber and is considered a risk factor for knee injury. Second, fatigue of knee muscles provides a unique opportunity to examine the mechanisms by which healthy individuals alter knee function. A review of the literature revealed that the effect of fatigue on knee function during landing has been assessed by comparing pre and postfatigue measurements, with fatigue induced by a voluntary exercise protocol. The information is limited by inconsistent results with key measures, such as knee stiffness, showing varying results following fatigue, including increased stiffness, decreased stiffness or failure to detect any change in some experiments. Further consideration of the literature questions the validity of the models used to induce and measure fatigue, as well as the pre-post study design, which may explain the lack of consensus in the results. These limitations cast doubt on the usefulness of the available information and identify a need to investigate alternative approaches. Based on the results of this review, the aims of this thesis were to: • evaluate the methodological procedures used in validation of a fatigue model • investigate the adaptation and regulation of post-impact knee mechanics during repeated step landings • use this new information to test the effects of fatigue on knee function during a step-landing task. To address the aims of the thesis, 3 related experiments were conducted that collected kinetic, kinematic and electromyographic data from 3 separate samples of healthy male participants. The methodologies involved optoelectronic motion capture (VICON), isokinetic dynamometry (System3 Pro, BIODEX) and wireless surface electromyography (Zerowire, Aurion, Italy). Fatigue indicators and knee function measures used in each experiment were derived from the data. Study 1 compared the validity and reliability of repetitive stepping and isokinetic contractions with respect to fatigue of the quadriceps and hamstrings. Fifteen participants performed 50 repetitions of each exercise twice in randomised order, over 4 sessions. Sessions were separated by a minimum of 1 week’s rest, to ensure full recovery. Validity and reliability depended on a complex interaction between the exercise protocol, the fatigue indicator, the individual and the muscle of interest. Nevertheless, differences between exercise protocols indicated that stepping was less effective in eliciting valid and reliable changes in peak power and spectral compression, compared with isokinetic exercise. A key finding was that fatigue progressed in a biphasic pattern during both exercises. The point separating the 2 phases, known as the transition point, demonstrated superior between-test reliability during the isokinetic protocol, compared with stepping. However, a correction factor should be used to accurately apply this technique to the study of fatigue during landing. Study 2 examined alterations in knee function during repeated landings, with a different sample (N =12) performing 60 consecutive step landing trials. Each landing trial was separated by 1-minute rest periods. The results provided new information in relation to the pre-post study design in the context of detecting adjustments in knee function during landing. First, participants significantly increased or decreased pre-impact muscle activity or post-impact mechanics despite environmental and task constraints remaining unchanged. This is the 1st study to demonstrate this effect in healthy individuals without external feedback on performance. Second, single-subject analysis was more effective in detecting alterations in knee function compared to group-level analysis. Finally, repeated landing trials did not reduce inter-trial variability of knee function in some participants, contrary to assumptions underpinning previous studies. The results of studies 1 and 2 were used to modify the design of Study 3 relative to previous research. These alterations included a modified isokinetic fatigue protocol, multiple pre-fatigue measurements and singlesubject analysis to detect fatigue-related changes in knee function. The study design incorporated new analytical approaches to investigate fatiguerelated alterations in knee function during landing. Participants (N = 16) were measured during multiple pre-fatigue baseline trial blocks prior to the fatigue model. A final block of landing trials was recorded once the participant met the operational fatigue definition that was identified in Study 1. The analysis revealed that the effects of fatigue in this context are heavily dependent on the compensatory response of the individual. A continuum of responses was observed within the sample for each knee function measure. Overall, preimpact preparation and post-impact mechanics of the knee were altered with highly individualised patterns. Moreover, participants used a range of active or passive pre-impact strategies to adapt post-impact mechanics in response to quadriceps fatigue. The unique patterns identified in the data represented an optimisation of knee function based on priorities of the individual. The findings of these studies explain the lack of consensus within the literature regarding the effects of fatigue on knee function during landing. First, functional fatigue protocols lack validity in inducing fatigue-related changes in mechanical output and spectral compression of surface electromyography (sEMG) signals, compared with isokinetic exercise. Second, fatigue-related changes in knee function during landing are confounded by inter-individual variation, which limits the sensitivity of group-level analysis. By addressing these limitations, the 3rd study demonstrated the efficacies of new experimental and analytical approaches to observe fatigue-related alterations in knee function during landing. Consequently, this thesis provides new perspectives into the effects of fatigue in knee function during landing. In conclusion: • The effects of fatigue on knee function during landing depend on the response of the individual, with considerable variation present between study participants, despite similar physical characteristics. • In healthy males, adaptation of pre-impact muscle activity and postimpact knee mechanics is unique to the individual and reflects their own optimisation of demands such as energy expenditure, joint stability, sensory information and loading of knee structures. • The results of these studies should guide future exploration of adaptations in knee function to fatigue. However, research in this area should continue with reduced emphasis on the directional response of the population and a greater focus on individual adaptations of knee function.

Conceptual models of satisfaction level in construction

It is recognized that, in general, the performance of construction projects does not meet optimal expectations. One aspect of this is the performance of each participant, which is interdependent and makes a significance impact on overall project outcomes. Of these, the client is traditionally the owner of the project, the architect or engineer is engaged as the lead designer and a contractor is selected to construct the facilities. Generally, the performance of the participants is gauged by considering three main factors, namely time, cost and quality. As the level of satisfaction is a subjective measurement, it is rarely used in the performance evaluation of construction work. Recently, various approaches to the measurement of satisfaction have been made in attempting to determine the performance of construction project outcomes – for instance client satisfaction, consultant satisfaction, contractor satisfaction, customer satisfaction and home buyer satisfaction. These not only identify the performance of the construction project, but are also used to improve and maintain relationships. In addition, these assessments are necessary for continuous improvement and enhanced cooperation between participants. The measurement of satisfaction levels primarily involves expectations and perceptions. An expectation can be regarded as a comparison standard of different needs, motives and beliefs, while a perception is a subjective interpretation that is influenced by moods, experiences and values. This suggests that the disparity between perceptions and expectations may be used to represent different levels of satisfaction. However, this concept is rather new and in need of further investigation. This paper examines the current methods commonly practiced in measuring satisfaction level and the advantages of promoting these methods. The results provided are a preliminary review of the advantages of satisfaction measurement in the construction industry and recommendations are made concerning the most appropriate methods for use in identifying the performance of project outcomes.

The impact of contractor’s characteristics in gauging level satisfaction

The outcomes of the construction projects can be evaluated in numerous ways. One method is to measure the satisfaction of participants as represented by the differences between their expectations and perceptions. This measurement is used widely in construction as it promises benefits, such as the improvement of product delivery, and enhances services quality by identifying some necessary changes. Commonly satisfaction measurement is gauged by evaluating the level of client satisfaction of construction performance. The measurement of customer satisfaction on the other hand, is based on the quality of the end product. This evaluation is used to encourage contractors to improve their performance to a required level and to ensure that the projects are delivered as expected- in terms of time, budget and quality. Several studies of performance measurement have indicated that contractor performance is still not satisfactory, as the outcome delivered is not as required (because of cost overruns, time overruns or because it is generally unsatisfactory). This drawback may be due to the contractors’ lack of expertise, motivation and/or satisfaction. The measurement of performance based on contractor satisfaction levels is still new and very few studies have yet taken place in the construction industry. This paper examines how the characteristics of a contracting organisation – namely its experience in the industry, background, past performance, size of organisation and financial stability- may influence its satisfaction levels with regards to project performance. Previous literature reviews and interviews are used as research tools in the preliminary investigation. The outcome is expected to present a basic understanding of contractor satisfaction measurement and its potential for improving the performance of project outcomes.

Knowledge-based development for cities and societies : integrated multi-level approaches

Over the past twenty years, the conventional knowledge management approach has evolved into a strategic management approach that has found applications and opportunities outside of business, in society at large, through education, urban development, governance, and healthcare, amongst others. Knowledge-Based Development for Cities and Socieities: Integrated Multi-Level Approaches enlightens the concepts and challenges of knowledge management for both urban environments and entire regions, enhancing the expertise and knowledge of scholars, resdearchers, practitioners, managers and urban developers in the development of successful knowledge-based development policies, creation of knowledte cities and prosperous knowledge societies. This reference creates large knowledge base for scholars, managers and urban developers and increases the awareness of the role of knowledge cities and knowledge socieiteis in the knowledge era, as well as of the challenges and opportunities for future research.

A comparison of the 27-item and 12-item intolerance of uncertainty scales

The 27-item Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS) has become one of the most frequently used measure of Intolerance of Uncertainty. More recently, an abridged, 12-item version of the IUS has been developed. The current research used clinical (n = 50) and non-clinical (n = 56) samples to examine and compare the psychometric properties of both versions of the IUS. The two scales showed good internal consistency at both the total and subscale level and had satisfactory test-retest reliability. Both versions were correlated with worry and trait anxiety and had satisfactory concurrent validity. Significant differences between the scores of the clinical and non-clinical sample supported discriminant validity. Predictive validity was also supported for the two scales. Total scores, in the case of the clinical sample, and a subscale, in the case of the non-clinical sample, significantly predicted pathological worry and trait anxiety. Overall, the clinicians and researchers can use either version of the IUS with confidence, due to their sound psychometric properties.

Clinical indicators of quality for Australian residential aged care facilities : establishing reliability, validity, and quality thresholds

Background: In response to the need for more comprehensive quality assessment within Australian residential aged care facilities, the Clinical Care Indicator (CCI) Tool was developed to collect outcome data as a means of making inferences about quality. A national trial of its effectiveness and a Brisbane-based trial of its use within the quality improvement context determined the CCI Tool represented a potentially valuable addition to the Australian aged care system. This document describes the next phase in the CCI Tool.s development; the aims of which were to establish validity and reliability of the CCI Tool, and to develop quality indicator thresholds (benchmarks) for use in Australia. The CCI Tool is now known as the ResCareQA (Residential Care Quality Assessment). Methods: The study aims were achieved through a combination of quantitative data analysis, and expert panel consultations using modified Delphi process. The expert panel consisted of experienced aged care clinicians, managers, and academics; they were initially consulted to determine face and content validity of the ResCareQA, and later to develop thresholds of quality. To analyse its psychometric properties, ResCareQA forms were completed for all residents (N=498) of nine aged care facilities throughout Queensland. Kappa statistics were used to assess inter-rater and test-retest reliability, and Cronbach.s alpha coefficient calculated to determine internal consistency. For concurrent validity, equivalent items on the ResCareQA and the Resident Classification Scales (RCS) were compared using Spearman.s rank order correlations, while discriminative validity was assessed using known-groups technique, comparing ResCareQA results between groups with differing care needs, as well as between male and female residents. Rank-ordered facility results for each clinical care indicator (CCI) were circulated to the panel; upper and lower thresholds for each CCI were nominated by panel members and refined through a Delphi process. These thresholds indicate excellent care at one extreme and questionable care at the other. Results: Minor modifications were made to the assessment, and it was renamed the ResCareQA. Agreement on its content was reached after two Delphi rounds; the final version contains 24 questions across four domains, enabling generation of 36 CCIs. Both test-retest and inter-rater reliability were sound with median kappa values of 0.74 (test-retest) and 0.91 (inter-rater); internal consistency was not as strong, with a Chronbach.s alpha of 0.46. Because the ResCareQA does not provide a single combined score, comparisons for concurrent validity were made with the RCS on an item by item basis, with most resultant correlations being quite low. Discriminative validity analyses, however, revealed highly significant differences in total number of CCIs between high care and low care groups (t199=10.77, p=0.000), while the differences between male and female residents were not significant (t414=0.56, p=0.58). Clinical outcomes varied both within and between facilities; agreed upper and lower thresholds were finalised after three Delphi rounds. Conclusions: The ResCareQA provides a comprehensive, easily administered means of monitoring quality in residential aged care facilities that can be reliably used on multiple occasions. The relatively modest internal consistency score was likely due to the multi-factorial nature of quality, and the absence of an aggregate result for the assessment. Measurement of concurrent validity proved difficult in the absence of a gold standard, but the sound discriminative validity results suggest that the ResCareQA has acceptable validity and could be confidently used as an indication of care quality within Australian residential aged care facilities. The thresholds, while preliminary due to small sample size, enable users to make judgements about quality within and between facilities. Thus it is recommended the ResCareQA be adopted for wider use.

Reliability analysis and economic equipment replacement appraisal for substation and sub-transmission systems with explicit inclusion of non-repairable failures

The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.