187 resultados para Realized volatility


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This article proposes an approach for real-time monitoring of risks in executable business process models. The approach considers risks in all phases of the business process management lifecycle, from process design, where risks are defined on top of process models, through to process diagnosis, where risks are detected during process execution. The approach has been realized via a distributed, sensor-based architecture. At design-time, sensors are defined to specify risk conditions which when fulfilled, are a likely indicator of negative process states (faults) to eventuate. Both historical and current process execution data can be used to compose such conditions. At run-time, each sensor independently notifies a sensor manager when a risk is detected. In turn, the sensor manager interacts with the monitoring component of a business process management system to prompt the results to process administrators who may take remedial actions. The proposed architecture has been implemented on top of the YAWL system, and evaluated through performance measurements and usability tests with students. The results show that risk conditions can be computed efficiently and that the approach is perceived as useful by the participants in the tests.

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The question has been asked "Can we shape an imaginative teacher identity?" (Garrod 2005). This research explores how participating in an overseas school experience can contribute to developing TESOL teachers' professional identities. The particular context for this research is the experiences of a group of Hong Kong pre-service TESOL teachers attending a short language immersion program at a university in Australia. As part of this program, the teachers are attached to a local school, where they observe and interact with the school community. This research tracks the teachers' perceptions of how this experience has contributed to their understandings of what it means to be a TESOL teacher and to their own developing sense of professional identity. It is suggested that engaging in critical reflection on this intercultural experience can develop teacher knowledge, practice and sense of self. Recent research (Swain, in press) posits that verbal protocols, such as 'stimulated recall' are part of the learning process rather than mere data collection techniques. How can this potential of 'stimulated recall' be realized as part of the learning processes in TESOL teacher education?

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We sought to determine the impact of electrospinning parameters on a trustworthy criterion that could evidently improve the maximum applicability of fibrous scaffolds for tissue regeneration. We used an image analysis technique to elucidate the web permeability index (WPI) by modeling the formation of electrospun scaffolds. Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) (P3HB) scaffolds were fabricated according to predetermined conditions of levels in a Taguchi orthogonal design. The material parameters were the polymer concentration, conductivity, and volatility of the solution. The processing parameters were the applied voltage and nozzle-to-collector distance. With a law to monitor the WPI values when the polymer concentration or the applied voltage was increased, the pore interconnectivity was decreased. The quality of the jet instability altered the pore numbers, areas, and other structural characteristics, all of which determined the scaffold porosity and aperture interconnectivity. An initial drastic increase was observed in the WPI values because of the chain entanglement phenomenon above a 6 wt % P3HB content. Although the solution mixture significantly (p < 0.05) changed the scaffold architectural characteristics as a function of the solution viscosity and surface tension, it had a minor impact on the WPI values. The solution mixture gained the third place of significance, and the distance was approved as the least important factor.

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In power hardware in the loop (PHIL) simulations, a real-time simulated power system is interfaced to a piece of hardware, usually called hardware under test (HuT). A PHIL test can be realized using several simulation tools. Among them Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) is an ideal tool to perform complex power system simulations in near real-time. Stable operation of the entire system, along with the accuracy of simulation results are the main concerns regarding a PHIL simulation. In this paper, a simulated power network on RTDS will be interfaced to HuT through a voltage source converter (VSC). Issues around stability and other interface problems are studied and a new method to stabilize some unstable PHIL cases is proposed. PHIL simulation results in PSCAD and RSCAD are presented.

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We test theoretical drivers of the oil price beta of oil industry stocks. The strongest statistical and economic support comes for market conditions-type variables as the prime drivers: namely, oil price (+), bond rate (+), volatility of oil returns (−) and cost of carry (+). Though statistically significant, exogenous firm characteristics and oil firms' financing decisions have less compelling economic significance. There is weaker support for the prediction that financial risk management reduces the exposure of oil stocks to crude oil price variation. Finally, extended modelling shows that mean reversion in oil prices also helps explain cross-sectional variation in the oil beta.

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WHEN JANE Ogden embarked on writing a book about the psychology of eating I wonder whether she realized the enormity of the task given the breadth of research literature in this field. Through a series of 12 closely related chapters on eating, health, food choice, dieting, obesity, body image, eating disorders and others, an extensive range of areas of the psychology of eating is covered. As well as these areas, included within each chapter is a discussion of the significance of historical, cultural, social and familial factors, theoretical approaches and empirical data in the understanding of the multifaceted problems related to eating. At the end of each chapter there is a box entitled ‘Towards an integrated model of diet’ that links the content with that of the following chapters...

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This article describes the architecture of a monitoring component for the YAWL system. The architecture proposed is based on sensors and it is realized as a YAWL service to have perfect integration with the YAWL systems. The architecture proposed is generic and applicable in different contexts of business process monitoring. Finally, it was tested and evaluated in the context of risk monitoring for business processes.

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Increasing concerns about the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its impact on the environment are motivating researchers to discover new materials and technologies for efficient CO2 capture and conversion. Here, we report a study of the adsorption of CO2, CH4, and H2 on boron nitride (BN) nanosheets and nanotubes (NTs) with different charge states. The results show that the process of CO2 capture/release can be simply controlled by switching on/off the charges carried by BN nanomaterials. CO2 molecules form weak interactions with uncharged BN nanomaterials and are weakly adsorbed. When extra electrons are introduced to these nanomaterials (i.e., when they are negatively charged), CO2 molecules become tightly bound and strongly adsorbed. Once the electrons are removed, CO2 molecules spontaneously desorb from BN absorbents. In addition, these negatively charged BN nanosorbents show high selectivity for separating CO2 from its mixtures with CH4 and/or H2. Our study demonstrates that BN nanomaterials are excellent absorbents for controllable, highly selective, and reversible capture and release of CO2. In addition, the charge density applied in this study is of the order of 1013 cm–2 of BN nanomaterials and can be easily realized experimentally.

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The emergence of pseudo-marginal algorithms has led to improved computational efficiency for dealing with complex Bayesian models with latent variables. Here an unbiased estimator of the likelihood replaces the true likelihood in order to produce a Bayesian algorithm that remains on the marginal space of the model parameter (with latent variables integrated out), with a target distribution that is still the correct posterior distribution. Very efficient proposal distributions can be developed on the marginal space relative to the joint space of model parameter and latent variables. Thus psuedo-marginal algorithms tend to have substantially better mixing properties. However, for pseudo-marginal approaches to perform well, the likelihood has to be estimated rather precisely. This can be difficult to achieve in complex applications. In this paper we propose to take advantage of multiple central processing units (CPUs), that are readily available on most standard desktop computers. Here the likelihood is estimated independently on the multiple CPUs, with the ultimate estimate of the likelihood being the average of the estimates obtained from the multiple CPUs. The estimate remains unbiased, but the variability is reduced. We compare and contrast two different technologies that allow the implementation of this idea, both of which require a negligible amount of extra programming effort. The superior performance of this idea over the standard approach is demonstrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility model.

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Following the growing need for adoption of alternative fuels, this project aimed at getting more information on the oxidative potential of biodiesel particulate matter. Within this scope, the physical and chemical characteristics of biodiesel PM were analysed which lead to identification of reactive organic fractions. An in-house developed proflurescent nitroxide probe was used. This project further developed in-depth understanding of the chemical mechanisms following the detection of the oxidative potential of PM. This knowledge made a significant contribution to our understanding of processes behind negative health effects of pollution and enabled us to further develop new techniques to monitor it.

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A strong Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) sector is said to underpin a competitive advantage of the Australian regions that are struggling to grow the economy, distribute the growth fairly, and in the process not degrade the environment. The concept of Regional Innovation Systems that draws on industrial cluster theory has gained currency as an umbrella framework for enabling the SMEs sector. However, there are significant gaps between research and innovation of such ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. This paper responds to this gap and proposes a Living Laboratory – an open multidisciplinary and multi-stakeholder action research platform where innovations can be co-created, tested, and evaluated in the every-day environment of SME – as a way to strengthen the SMEs sector in regional Australia.

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The role of government in developing policies and guidelines for asset management is becoming increasingly important especially in view of ageing infrastructure and increasing financial risks for building infrastructure. This paper reviews policies and guidelines developed by Australian state authorities against industry developed principles. It utilizes the software program Leximancer to; a) produce conceptual visualisations of the key themes and concepts embedded within state-wide policies and guidelines, and b) systematically compare the differing asset management foci between states. The analyses reveal mixed results in terms of policy priorities and guidelines for managing assets at a strategic level across states. This paper outlines a rigorous analytical methodology to inform specific policy changes.

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This article explores the strengths and limitations of settler colonial theory (SCT) as a tool for non-Indigenous scholars seeking to disturb rather than re-enact colonial privilege. Based on an examination of recent Australian academic debates on settler colonialism and the Northern Territory intervention, we argue that SCT is useful in dehistoricizing colonialism, usually presented as an unfortunate but already transcended national past, and in revealing the intimate connections between settler emotions, knowledges, institutions and policies. Most importantly, it makes settler investments visible to settlers, in terms we understand and find hard to escape. However, as others have noted, SCT seems unable to transcend itself, in the sense that it posits a structural inevitability to the settler colonial relationship. We suggest that this structuralism can be mobilized by settler scholars in ways that delegitimize Indigenous resistance and reinforce violent colonial relationships. But while settlers come to stay and to erase Indigenous political existence, this does not mean that these intentions will be realized or must remain fixed. Non-Indigenous scholars should challenge the politically convenient conflation of settler desires and reality, and of the political present and the future. This article highlights these issues in order to begin to unlock the transformative potential of SCT, engaging settler scholars as political actors and arguing that this approach has the potential to facilitate conversations and alliances with Indigenous people. It is precisely by using the strengths of SCT that we can challenge its limitations; the theory itself places ethical demands on us as settlers, including the demand that we actively refuse its potential to re-empower our own academic voices and to marginalize Indigenous resistance.

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A controlled layer of multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWCNT) was grown directly on top of fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO) glass electrodes as a surface modifier for improving the performance of polymer solar cells. By using low-temperature chemical vapor deposition with short synthesis times, very short MWCNTs were grown, these uniformly decorating the FTO surface. The chemical vapor deposition parameters were carefully refined to balance the tube size and density, while minimizing the decrease in conductivity and light harvesting of the electrode. As created FTO/CNT electrodes were applied to bulk-heterojunction polymer solar cells, both in direct and inverted architecture. Thanks to the inclusion of MWCNT and the consequent nano-structuring of the electrode surface, we observe an increase in external quantum efficiency in the wavelength range from 550 to 650 nm. Overall, polymer solar cells realized with these FTO/CNT electrodes attain power conversion efficiency higher than 2%, outclassing reference cells based on standard FTO electrodes.

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Oral immunization is attractive as a delivery route because it is needle-free and useful for rapid mass vaccination programs to target pandemics or bioterrorism. This potential has not been realized for human vaccination, due to the requirement of large antigen doses and toxic (to humans) adjuvants to overcome the induction of oral tolerance and potential degradation of antigens in the stomach. To date, only oral vaccines based on live attenuated organisms have been approved for human use. In this study we describe the use of a lipid-based delivery system/adjuvant, Lipid C, for oral immunization to protect mice against genital tract chlamydial infection. Lipid C is formulated from food-grade purified and fractionated triglycerides. Bacterial shedding following vaginal challenge with Chlamydia muridarum was reduced by 50% in female mice orally immunized with the chlamydial major outer membrane protein (MOMP) formulated in Lipid C, protection equivalent to that seen in animals immunized with MOMP admixed with both cholera toxin (CT) and CpG oligodeoxynucleotides (CpG-ODN). Protection was further enhanced when MOMP, CT and CpG were all combined in the Lipid C matrix. Protection correlated with production of gamma interferon (IFN) by splenic T cells, a serum MOMP-specific IgG response and low but detectable levels of MOMP-specific IgA in vaginal lavage.