Assessing the impact of crime on residential property markets

The aim of this research is to determine if a range of crimes in a suburb have an impact on the residential property sectors in that particular suburb. With the increasing media coverage of crime in specific locations, this knowledge of crime in Brisbane Australia is more available to potential residential property buyers This research is based on the analysis of the crime statistics for 30 suburbs in Brisbane across a range of major crime activities and compares the level of crime to property median prices, sales volume and in a range of suburbs the volume of sale and lease listings. The results of the research show a significant variation in the response of buyers in residential property markets based on the type of crime and the socio-economic status of the suburb. In a range of suburbs, value factors other than crime are the major drivers of the market. The study provides an insight into consumer behaviour in a major city and the response of residential property buyers to an increasing level and awareness of crime statistics in the suburbs they are considering to buy. Implications of this research are that with a greater level of awareness of factors that could be a disadvantage to some potential buyers are not always reflected across a full residential property market. Valuers, property financiers and the public need to be aware of the type of crime and locations that have a direct impact on property prices and saleability These results expand on the current knowledge of value drivers in major residential property markets.

The land hoarding and land inspector dilemma in China : an evolutionary game theoretic perspective

China has experienced considerable economic growth since 1978, which was accompanied by unprecedented growth in urbanization and, more recently, by associated rising urban housing and land banking issues. One such issue is that of land hoarding - where real estate developers purchase land to hold unused in the rising market for a future lucrative sale, often several years later. This practice is outlawed in China, where land use is controlled by increasingly strengthened Government policies and inspectors. Despite this, land hoarding continues apace, with the main culprits being the developers and inspectors working subversively. This resembles a game between two players - the inspector and the developer - which provides the setting for this paper in developing an evolutionary game theory model to provide insights into dealing with the dilemmas faced by the players. The logic and dilemma of land banking strategy and illegal land banking issues are analysed, along with the land inspector’s role from a game theory perspective by determining the replication dynamic mechanism and evolutionary stable strategies under the various conditions that the players face. The major factors influencing the actions of land inspectors, on the other hand, are the costs of inspection, no matter if it is strict or indolent, conflict costs, and income and penalties from corruption. From this, it is shown that, when the net loss for corruption (income from corruption minus the penalties for corruption and cost of strict inspections) is less than the cost of strict inspections, the final evolutionary stable strategy of the inspectors is to carry out indolent inspections. Then, whether penalising developers for hoarding is severe or not, the evolutionary strategy for the developer is to hoard. The implications for land use control mechanisms and associated developer-inspector actions and counteractions are then examined in the light of the model's properties.

The cluster effect in China: Real or imagined?

Policy makers, urban planners and economic geographers readily acknowledge the potential value of industrial clustering. Clusters attract policy makers’ interest because it is widely held that they are a way of connecting agglomeration to innovation and human capital to investment. Urban planners view clustering as a way of enticing creative human capital, the so-called ‘creative class’, that is, creative people are predisposed to live where there is a range of cultural infrastructure and amenities. Economists and geographers have contrived to promote clustering as a solution to stalled regional development. In the People’s Republic of China, over the past decade the cluster has become the default setting of the cultural and creative industries, the latter a composite term applied to the quantifiable outputs of artists, designers and media workers as well as related service sectors such as tourism, advertising and management. The thinking behind many cluster projects is to ‘pick winners’. In this sense the rapid expansion in the number of cultural and creative clusters in China over the past decade is not so very different from the early 1990s, a period that saw an outbreak of innovation parks, most of which inevitably failed to deliver measurable innovation and ultimately served as revenue-generating sources for district governments via real estate speculation. Since the early years of the first decade of the new millennium the cluster model has been pressed into the service of cultural development.

Barriers to entering affordable home ownership for young people: A preliminary study from university students’ perspectives

Over the last two decades, housing affordability has been a problem for young people, and identified as factor leading to youth homelessness. The National Youth Commission Inquiry into Youth Homelessness developed a roadmap for preventing this problem (National Youth Commission, 2008). The roadmap recommends increasing the supply of affordable housing for young people as an important strategy to reduce the risk of homelessness problems. In addition, understanding the barriers and the needs of young people is a significant part of the development of a national affordable housing strategy. This paper explores issues encountered by young people when they enter the housing market as first home buyers. A short survey was conducted to review the barriers to entry, classified by income levels, housing cost and availability of affordable housing. In the current competitive job market, young people have minimal work experience, relatively low job security and low income. In addition to these barriers, participants also suggested other barriers towards the purchase of their first home, such as lack of knowledge of legal issues and lack of government funding. This study suggests the need for both government and educational support for young people around housing choices and the development of financial strategies to manage barriers towards owning their first home.

De-risking development of medium density housing to improve housing affordability and boost supply

Housing price inflation is a national concern given the serious decline in the number of low and middle income households able to purchase housing. In addition housing supply lags well behind demand. In Melbourne, urban consolidation policies explicitly seek intensification to promote housing supply but planning regulation is often criticised for being a significant cost driver for medium density housing. It is assumed that easing supply constraints will improve affordability. We suggest that laissez-faire planning exacerbates affordability issues because this approach fails to address the basic economic problem: the current inability of the market to efficiently match supply and demand in order to progress an orderly and de-risked development process. The role of “exchange” one of the four housing market sub-systems identified by Burke (2012) has until recently generally been ignored but our examination reveals significant economic transaction costs that manifest as development risks that impact on affordability. Fortunately these can be mitigated, but only if there is a more consumer driven supply response.

An Uber for apartments could solve some common housing problems

Speculative property developers, criticised for building dog boxes and the slums of tomorrow, are generally hated by urban planners and the public alike. But the doors of state governments are seemingly always open to developers and their lobbyists. Politicians find it hard to say no to the demands of the development industry for concessions because of the contribution housing construction makes to the economic bottom line and because there is a need for well located housing. New supply is also seen as a solution to declining housing affordability. Classical economic theory however is too simplistic for housing supply. Instead, an offshoot of Game Theory - Market Design – not only offers greater insight into apartment supply but also can simultaneously address price, design and quality issues. New research reveals the most significant risk in residential development is settlement risk – when buyers fail to proceed with their purchase despite there being a pre-sale contract. At the point of settlement, the developer has expended all the project funds only to see forecast revenue evaporate. While new buyers may be found, this process is likely to strip the profitability out of the project. As the global financial crisis exposed, buyers are inclined to walk if property values slide. This settlement problem reflects a poor legal mechanism (the pre-sale contract), and a lack of incentive for truthfulness. A second problem is the search costs of finding buyers. At around 10% of project costs, pre-sales are more expensive to developers than finance. This is where Market Design comes in.

Islamic fund and asset management: The opportunities and challenges of Islamic REITs

Purpose This paper aims to present a review on the issues and challenges for Islamic Funds and Asset Management, particularly the Islamic Real Estate Trusts (I-REITs) available in Malaysia. The key difference between the Islamic and the conventional investment vehicle is mainly the fund needs to adhere to the Shariah framework. Design/methodology/approach The paper reviews and synthesises the relevant literature on the framework of Islamic Asset and Fund Management, particularly the Islamic Real Estate Investment Trusts. The paper then provides insights for further research to address the issues and consider the Shariah framework applicable to other further research works. Findings The paper highlights the opportunities and challenges of Islamic REITs globally. There is a lack of the standardisation in the screening methodology used by the Malaysian I- REITs and Singapore I-REITs as the latter follows the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) guideline to capture the investors mainly from the Gulf countries. In term of tenants’ selection, there is similarity between I-REITs and the Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) or ethical investment. The gap between the investments can be bridged if the Islamic funds skewed the investment portfolio towards the social and ethical investment. Even though there is a limitation in the investment universe, I-REITs provide better diversification option and show better performance compared to the equity market during the economic crisis. The introduction of the Shariah-compliant REITs index for Asia Pacific allows the fund managers to benchmark the performance of either the funds or the sector with other investment vehicles. This will encourage more investors to consider I-REIT in the decision making of the asset allocation portfolio and broadening the horizon of the investment. Originality/value The contribution of the study is the examination and analysis of the Shariah framework currently adopted for Islamic REITs. This will assist in the identification of specific issues associated with Islamic REITs that will need to be addressed in the development and application of further research in the aspect of the management and operations to increase the efficiency level and better performance in order to capture more investors in this specific and promising market.

Enhancing information about sustainability features for sustainable housing delivery

Sustainability practices in government regulations and within the society influence the delivery of sustainable housing. The actual delivery rate of Australian sustain-able housing is not as high as other countries. There is an absence of engagement by stakeholders in adopting sustainable housing practices. This may be due, in the current Australian property market, to confusion as to what sustainability features should be considered, given the large range of environmental, economic and social sustainability options possible. One of the main problems appears to be that information demanders, especially real estate agents, valuers, insurance agents and mortgage lenders do not include sustainability perspectives in their advice or in their decision processes. Information distribution in the Australian property market is flawed, resulting in a lack of return-on-investment value of ‘green’ features implemented by some stakeholders. This paper reviewed the global sustainable development concept and Australian sustainable assessment methods. This review identified the possibility of a research project which aimed at identifying and integrating different perceptions and priority needs of the information demanders, for developing a model for the potential implementation of sustainability features distribution in the property industry. This research will reduce confusion on the sustainability-related information which can influence the decision making of stakeholders in the supply and demand of sustainable housing.

Identifying the financial barriers to deliberative, affordable apartment development in Australia

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the financial barriers to the supply of affordable apartments in Australia and examine whether demand aggregation and ‘deliberative development’ (self-build) can form a new affordable housing ‘structure of provision’. Design/methodology/approach Market design, an offshoot of game theory, is used to analyse the existing apartment development model, with ‘deliberative development’ proposed as an innovative alternative. Semi-structured interviews with residential development financiers are used to evaluate whether deliberative development could obtain the requisite development finance. Findings Our investigation into the financial barriers of a deliberative development model suggest that while there are hurdles, these can be addressed if key risks in the exchange process can be mitigated. Hence, affordability can be enhanced by ‘deliberative development’ replacing the existing speculative development model. Research implications Market design is a new innovative theoretical approach to understanding the supply of housing, offering practical solutions to affordable apartment supply in Australia. Originality/value This research identifies financial barriers to the supply of affordable apartments; introduces theoretical understandings gained from market design as an innovative solution; provides evidence that a new structure of building provision based on ‘deliberative development’ could become a key means of achieving more affordable and better designed apartments.

Submission to the Senate Economics References Committee Inquiry into affordable housing 20 August 2014: De-risking development of medium density housing to improve housing affordability and boost supply

This submission addresses the problem of housing price inflation, the chronic under-supply of new housing stock, and the resultant decline in housing affordability for low and middle income households. It specifically focusses on the supply of medium density housing (multi-unit development) in Melbourne, although we believe that the observations made about housing in supply in Melbourne are relevant in other urban centres and to other types of housing supply. In terms of medium density housing (MDH) our concern also extends to the poor quality and design. Why the market tends to deliver generic apartments of poor quality and design which are uncompetitive with lower density housing and amenity despite planning objectives, and how this apparently intractable problem can be overcome is the topic of this submission...

Making apartments affordable: Moving from speculative to deliberative development

Urban planning policies in Australia presuppose apartments as the new dominant housing type, but much of what the market has delivered is criticised as over-development, and as being generic, poorly-designed, environmentally unsustainable and unaffordable. Policy responses to this problem typically focus on planning regulation and construction costs as the primary issues needing to be addressed in order to increase the supply of quality, affordable apartment housing. In contrast, this paper uses Ball’s (1983) ‘structures of provision’ approach to outline the key processes informing apartment development and identifies a substantial gap in critical understanding of how apartments are developed in Australia. This reveals economic problems not typically considered by policymakers. Using mainstream economic analysis to review the market itself, the authors found high search costs, demand risk, problems with exchange, and lack of competition present key barriers to achieving greater affordability and limit the extent to which ‘speculative’ developers can respond to the preferences of would be owner-occupiers of apartments. The existing development model, which is reliant on capturing uplift in site value, suits investors seeking rental yields in the first instance and capital gains in the second instance, and actively encourages housing price inflation. This is exacerbated by lack of density restrictions, such as have existed in inner Melbourne for many years, which permits greater yields on redevelopment sites. The price of land in the vicinity of such redevelopment sites is pushed up as landholders' expectation of future yield is raised. All too frequently existing redevelopment sites go back onto the market as vendors seek to capture the uplift in site value and exit the project in a risk free manner...

Deriving optimal competition in infrastructure procurement

Typically only a limited number of consortiums are able to competitively bid for Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects. Consequently, this may lead to oligopoly pricing constraints and ineffective competition, thus engendering ex ante market failure. In addressing this issue, this paper aims to determine the optimal number of bidders required to ensure a healthy level of competition is available to procure major infrastructure projects. The theories of Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) paradigm; Game Theory and Auction Theory and Transaction Cost Economics are reviewed and discussed and used to produce an optimal level of competition for major infrastructure procurement, that prevents market failure ex ante (lack of competition) and market failure ex post (due to asymmetric lock-in).

Comparative study on green building supportive policies of pacific-rim countries most vulnerable to climate change

- Problem Climate change is affecting the world in numerous ways such as increased temperatures, sea level rise, and increased droughts and floods. Governments worldwide, especially in the most vulnerable countries, are urged to seek better solutions for sustainable development. The construction industry and buildings have enormous impacts on humans and the environment, meaning green building must be one of the solutions. Government involvement is widely considered as one of the essential and most effective ways to promote green building and drive the construction market towards sustainability. This paper will review green building policy of the Pacific-Rim countries that are most vulnerable to climate change according to the recent Standard and Poor’s ranking, including: Cambodia, Vietnam, Fiji, Philippines, Papua New Guinea and Indonesia. Methodology: This paper will review policy related publications including journal and conference papers, portal websites of governments, legislation documents and reports of international organisations. It will focus on the policies and governmental instruments that support the adoption of green building practices. - Findings All six governments have launched climate change adaptation policies, showing a great concern regarding the damages caused by the phenomenon. All countries except Papua New Guinea have promulgated energy efficiency policy and programs which indirectly promote the adoption of green building practices. The comparison study shows that Philippines and Indonesia motivate the adoption of renewable energy generation, energy efficiency and green building through either financial or advocacy instruments, while other four countries tend to implement regulatory tools to mandate energy conservation. Through comparison, Cambodia and Vietnam – the two countries providing vision to develop green building - can learn from Philippines and Indonesia’s policy and instruments. - Research limitations Language differences between the countries and limit of formal sources may pose difficulties in searching for information. While much English language literature exists, sources from Cambodia, Philippines and Indonesia are less accessible. - Takeaway for practice As the paper provides more understanding about the supportive policy of those countries, it will introduce more opportunities for green property developers to invest in construction markets of those Pacific-Rim countries. - Originality There is little research reviewing green building supportive policies of developing and less-wealthy countries that are forecasted to be most vulnerable and most impacted by climate change. The originality of this paper lies in its investigation on how those countries intend to respond to this phenomenon and whether and to what extent they support the green building market by using policy tools.