Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Raman spectroscopy of hydrogen arsenate group (AsO3OH)2− in solid-state compounds: cobalt-containing zinc arsenate mineral, koritnigite (Zn,Co)(AsO3OH)·H2O

Raman spectra of two well-defined types of koritnigite crystals from the Jáchymov ore district, Czech Republic, were recorded and interpreted. No substantial differences were observed between both crystal types. Observed Raman bands were attributed to the (AsO3OH)2- stretching and bending vibrations, stretching and bending vibrations of water molecules and hydroxyl ions. Non-interpreted Raman spectra of koritnigite from the RRUFF database, and published infrared spectra of cobaltkoritnigite were used for comparison. The O-H...O hydrogen bond lengths in the crystal structure of koritnigite were inferred from the Raman spectra and compared with those derived from the X-ray single crystal refinement. The presence of (AsO3OH)2- units in the crystal structure of koritnigite was proved from the Raman spectra which supports the conclusions of the X-ray structure analysis.

Factors affecting somatic embryogenesis and transformation in modern plant breeding

Somatic embryogenesis and transformation systems are indispensable modern plant breeding components since they provide an alternative platform to develop control strategies against the plethora of pests and diseases affecting many agronomic crops. This review discusses some of the factors affecting somatic embryogenesis and transformation, highlights the advantages and limitations of these systems and explores these systems as breeding tools for the development of crops with improved agronomic traits. The regeneration of non-chimeric transgenic crops through somatic embryogenesis with introduced disease and pest-resistant genes for instance, would be of significant benefit to growers worldwide.

Size and habit of mineral particles in bone and mineralized callus during bone healing in sheep

Bone healing is known to occur through the successive formation and resorption of various tissues with different structural and mechanical properties. To get a better insight into this sequence of events, we used environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM) together with scanning small-angle X-ray scattering (sSAXS) to reveal the size and orientation of bone mineral particles within the regenerating callus tissues at different healing stages (2, 3, 6, and 9 weeks). Sections of 200 µm were cut from embedded blocks of midshaft tibial samples in a sheep osteotomy model with an external fixator. Regions of interest on the medial side of the proximal fragment were chosen to be the periosteal callus, middle callus, intercortical callus, and cortex. Mean thickness (T parameter), degree of alignment (ρ parameter), and predominant orientation (ψ parameter) of mineral particles were deduced from resulting sSAXS patterns with a spatial resolution of 200 µm. 2D maps of T and ρ overlapping with ESEM images revealed that the callus formation occurred in two waves of bone formation, whereby a highly disordered mineralized tissue was deposited first, followed by a bony tissue with more lamellar appearance in the ESEM and where the mineral particles were more aligned, as revealed by sSAXS. As a consequence, degree of alignment and mineral particle size within the callus increased with healing time, whereas at any given moment there were structural gradients, for example, from periosteal toward the middle callus.

Spatial and temporal variations of mechanical properties and mineral content of the external callus during bone healing

After bone fracture, various cellular activities lead to the formation of different tissue types, which form the basis for the process of secondary bone healing. Although these tissues have been quantified by histology, their material properties are not well understood. Thus, the aim of this study is to correlate the spatial and temporal variations in the mineral content and the nanoindentation modulus of the callus formed via intramembranous ossification over the course of bone healing. Midshaft tibial samples from a sheep osteotomy model at time points of 2, 3, 6 and 9 weeks were employed. PMMA embedded blocks were used for quantitative back scattered electron imaging and nanoindentation of the newly formed periosteal callus near the cortex. The resulting indentation modulus maps show the heterogeneity in the modulus in the selected regions of the callus. The indentation modulus of the embedded callus is about 6 GPa at the early stage. At later stages of mineralization, the average indentation modulus reaches 14 GPa. There is a slight decrease in average indentation modulus in regions distant to the cortex, probably due to remodelling of the peripheral callus. The spatial and temporal distribution of mineral content in the callus tissue also illustrates the ongoing remodelling process observed from histological analysis. Most interestingly the average indentation modulus, even at 9 weeks, remains as low as 13 GPa, which is roughly 60% of that for cortical sheep bone. The decreased indentation modulus in the callus compared to cortex is due to the lower average mineral content and may be perhaps also due to the properties of the organic matrix which might be different from normal bone.

Raman spectroscopic study of the uranyl titanate mineral brannerite (U,Ca,Y,Ce)2(Ti,Fe)2O6 –Effect of Metamictization

Raman spectra of the uranyl titanate mineral brannerite were analysed and related to the mineral structure. A comparison is made with the Raman spectra of uranyl oxyhydroxide hydrates. Observed bands are attributed to the TiO and (UO2)2+ stretching and bending vibrations, U-OH bending vibrations, H2O and (OH)- stretching, bending and libration modes. U-O bond lengths in uranyls and O-H…O bond lengths are calculated from the wavenumbers assigned to the stretching vibrations. Raman bands of brannerite are in harmony with those of the uranyl oxyhydroxides. The mineral brannerite is metamict as is evidenced by the intensity of the UO stretching and bending modes being of lower intensity than expected and with bands that are significantly broader.

Single crystal Raman spectroscopy of natural leiteite ZnAs2O4 and in comparison with the synthesised mineral

The oriented single crystal Raman spectrum of leiteite has been obtained and the spectra related to the structure of the mineral. The intensities of the observed bands vary according to orientation allowing them to be assigned to either Ag or Bg modes. Ag bands are generally the most intense in the CAAC spectrum, followed by ACCA, CBBC, and ABBA whereas Bg bands are generally the most intense in the CBAC followed by ABCA. The CAAC and ACCA spectra are identical, as are those obtained in the CBBC and ABBA orientations. Both cross-polarised spectra are identical. Band assignments were made with respect to bridging and non-bridging As-O bonds.

Raman spectroscopic study of the uranyl titanate mineral euxenite (Y,Ca,U,Ce,Th) (Nb,Ta,Ti)2O6

Raman spectra of the uranyl titanate mineral euxenite were analyzed and related to the mineral structure. A comparison is made with the Raman spectra of uranyl oxyhydroxide hydrates. The obsd. bands are attributed to the Ti[n.63743]O and (UO2)2+ stretching and bending vibrations, as well as lattice vibrations of rare-earth ions. The Raman bands of euxenite are in harmony with those of the uranyl oxyhydroxides. The mineral euxenite is metamict as is evidenced by the intensity of the U[n.63743]O stretching and bending modes, which are of lower intensity than expected, and with bands that are significantly broader.

Vibrational spectroscopic study of the antimonate mineral bindheimite Pb2Sb2O6(O,OH)

Raman spectroscopy complimented with infrared spectroscopy has been used to characterise the antimonate mineral bindheimite Pb2Sb2O6(O,OH). The mineral is characterised by an intense Raman band at 656 cm-1 assigned to SbO stretching vibrations. Other lower intensity bands at 664, 749 and 814 cm-1 are also assigned to stretching vibrations. This observation suggests the non-equivalence of SbO units in the structure. Low intensity Raman bands at 293, 312 and 328 cm-1 are assigned to the OSbO bending vibrations. Infrared bands at 979, 1008, 1037 and 1058 cm-1 may be assigned to δ OH deformation modes of SbOH units. Infrared bands at 1603 and 1640 cm-1 are assigned to water bending vibrations, suggesting that water is involved in the bindheimite structure. Broad infrared bands centred upon 3250 cm-1 supports this concept. Thus the true formula of bindheimite is questioned and probably should be written as Pb2Sb2O6(O,OH,H2O)

A Raman spectroscopic study of the ‘cave’ mineral ardealite Ca2(HPO4)(SO4)•4H2O

The mineral ardealite Ca2(HPO4)(SO4)•4H2O is a ‘cave’ mineral and is formed through the reaction of calcite with bat guano. The mineral shows disorder and the composition varies depending on the origin of the mineral. Raman spectroscopy complimented with infrared spectroscopy has been used to characterise the mineral ardealite. The Raman spectrum is very different from that of gypsum. Bands are assigned to SO42- and HPO42- stretching and bending modes.

Thermal stability of the ‘cave’ mineral brushite CaHPO4•2H2O -mechanism of formation and decomposition

Thermogravimetry combined with evolved gas mass spectrometry has been used to ascertain the stability of the ‘cave’ mineral brushite. X-ray diffraction shows that brushite from the Jenolan Caves is very pure. Thermogravimetric analysis coupled with ion current mass spectrometry shows a mass loss at 111°C due to loss of water of hydration. A further decomposition step occurs at 190°C with the conversion of hydrogen phosphate to a mixture of calcium ortho-phosphate and calcium pyrophosphate. TG-DTG shows the mineral is not stable above 111°C. A mechanism for the formation of brushite on calcite surfaces is proposed, and this mechanism has relevance to the formation of brushite in urinary tracts.

Composition and source identification of road deposited pollutants

Road deposited solids are a mix of pollutants originating from a range of anthropogenic sources common to urban land uses and soil inputs from surrounding areas. These particles accumulate potentially toxic pollutants thereby posing a threat to receiving waters. Reliable estimation of sources of particulate pollutants in build-up and quantification of particle composition is important for the development of best management practices for stormwater quality mitigation. The research study analysed build-up pollutants from sixteen different urban road surfaces and soil from four background locations. The road surfaces were selected from residential, industrial and commercial land uses from four suburbs in Gold Coast, Australia. Collected build-up samples were analysed for solids load, organic matter and mineralogy. The soil samples were analysed for mineralogy. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of mineralogical data, along with multivariate data analysis were employed to identify the relative source contributions to road deposited solids. The build-up load on road surfaces in different suburbs showed significant differences due to the nature of anthropogenic activities, road texture depth and antecedent dry period. Analysis revealed that build-up pollutants consists primarily of soil derived minerals (60%) and the remainder is composed of traffic generated pollutants and organic matter. Major mineral components detected were quartz and potential clay forming minerals such as albite, microline, chlorite and muscovite. An average of 40-50% of build-up pollutants by weight was made up of quartz. Comparison of the mineral component of build-up pollutants with background soil samples indicated that the minerals primarily originate from surrounding soils. About 2.2% of build-up pollutants were organic matter which originates largely from plant matter. Traffic related pollutants which are potentially toxic to the receiving water environment represented about 30% of the build-up pollutants at the study sites.

The application of Raman spectroscopy to the study of the uranyl mineral coconinoite Fe2Al2(UO2)2(PO4)4(SO4)(OH)2•20H2O

Raman spectra of the uranyl containing mineral coconinoite, Fe2Al2(UO2)2(PO4)4(SO4)(OH)2•20H2O, are presented and compared with the mineral’s infrared spectra. Bands connected with (UO2)2+, (PO4)3- , (SO4)2-, (OH)- and H2O stretching and bending vibrations, are assigned. Approximate U-O bond lengths in uranyl, (UO2)2+, and O-H...O hydrogen bond lengths are calculated from the wavenumbers of the U-O stretching vibrations and (OH)- and H2O stretching vibrations, respectively, and compared with published data for similar natural and synthetic compounds.

Vibrational spectroscopic study of the mineral tsumebite Pb2Cu(PO4,SO4) (OH)

The mineral tsumebite Pb2Cu(PO4)(SO4)(OH), a copper phosphate-sulfate hydroxide of the brackebuschite group has been characterised by Raman and infrared spectroscopy. The brackebuschite mineral group are a series of monoclinic arsenates, phosphates and vanadates of the general formula A2B(XO4)(OH,H2O), where A may be Ba, Ca, Pb, Sr, while B may be Al, Cu2+,Fe2+, Fe3+, Mn2+, Mn3+, Zn and XO4 may be AsO4, PO4, SO4,VO4. Bands are assigned to the stretching and bending modes of PO43- and HOPO3 units. Hydrogen bond distances are calculated based upon the position of the OH stretching vibrations and range from 2.759 Å to 3.205 Å. This range of hydrogen bonding contributes to the stability of the mineral.