Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Clinical performance of a new silicone hydrogel contact lens over 6 months of extended wear

Purpose: Silicone hydrogel contact lenses (CLs) are becoming increasingly popular for daily wear (DW), extended wear (EW) and continuous wear (CW), due to their higher oxygen transmissibility compared to hydrogel CLs. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical and subjective performance of asmofilcon A (Menicon Co., Ltd), a new surface treated silicone hydrogel CL, during 6-night EW over 6 months (M). Methods: A prospective, randomised, single-masked, monadic study was conducted. N=60 experienced DW soft CL wearers were randomly assigned to wear either asmofilcon A (test: Dk=129, water content (WC)=40%, Nanogloss surface treatment) or senofilcon A (control: Dk=103, WC=38%, PVP internal wetting agent, Vistakon, Johnson & Johnson Vision Care) CLs bilaterally for 6 M on an EW basis. A PHMB-preserved solution (Menicon Co., Ltd) was dispensed for CL care. Evaluations were conducted at CL delivery and after 1 week (W), 4 W, 3 M and 6 M of EW. At each visit, a range of objective and subjective clinical performance measures were assessed. Results: N=50 subjects (83%) successfully completed the study, with the majority of discontinuations due to loss to follow-up (n=3) or moving away/travel (n=5). N=2 subjects experienced adverse events; n=1 unilateral red eye with asmofilcon A and n=1 asymptomatic infiltrate with senofilcon A. There were no significant differences in high or low contrast distance visual acuity (HCDVA or LCDVA) between asmofilcon A and senofilcon A; however, LCDVA decreased significantly over time with both CL types (p<0.05). The two CL types did not vary significantly with respect to any of the objective and subjective measures assessed (p>0.05); CL fitting characteristics and CL surface measurements were very similar and mean bulbar and limbal redness measures were always less than grade 1.0. Superior palpebral conjunctival injection showed a statistically, but not clinically, significant increase over time with both CL types (p<0.05). Corneal staining did not vary significantly between asmofilcon A and senofilcon A (p>0.05), with low median gradings of less than 0.5 observed for all areas assessed. There were no solution-related staining reactions observed with either CL type. The asmofilcon A and senofilcon A CLs were both rated highly with respect to overall comfort, with medians of 14 or 15 hours of comfortable lens wearing time per day reported at each of the study visits (p>0.05). Conclusions: Over 6 months of EW, the asmofilcon A and senofilcon A CLs performed in a similar manner with respect to visual acuity, ocular health and CL performance measures. Some changes over time were observed with both CL types, including reduced LCDVA and increased superior palpebral injection, which warrant further investigation in longer-term EW studies. Asmofilcon A appeared to be equivalent in performance to senofilcon A.

A randomised controlled trial to prevent hospital readmissions and loss of functional ability in high risk older adults: a study protocol

Background Older people have higher rates of hospital admission than the general population and higher rates of readmission due to complications and falls. During hospitalisation, older people experience significant functional decline which impairs their future independence and quality of life. Acute hospital services comprise the largest section of health expenditure in Australia and prevention or delay of disease is known to produce more effective use of services. Current models of discharge planning and follow-up care, however, do not address the need to prevent deconditioning or functional decline. This paper describes the protocol of a randomised controlled trial which aims to evaluate innovative transitional care strategies to reduce unplanned readmissions and improve functional status, independence, and psycho-social well-being of community-based older people at risk of readmission. Methods/Design The study is a randomised controlled trial. Within 72 hours of hospital admission, a sample of older adults fitting the inclusion/exclusion criteria (aged 65 years and over, admitted with a medical diagnosis, able to walk independently for 3 meters, and at least one risk factor for readmission) are randomised into one of four groups: 1) the usual care control group, 2) the exercise and in-home/telephone follow-up intervention group, 3) the exercise only intervention group, or 4) the in-home/telephone follow-up only intervention group. The usual care control group receive usual discharge planning provided by the health service. In addition to usual care, the exercise and in-home/telephone follow-up intervention group receive an intervention consisting of a tailored exercise program, in-home visit and 24 week telephone follow-up by a gerontic nurse. The exercise only and in-home/telephone follow-up only intervention groups, in addition to usual care receive only the exercise or gerontic nurse components of the intervention respectively. Data collection is undertaken at baseline within 72 hours of hospital admission, 4 weeks following hospital discharge, 12 weeks following hospital discharge, and 24 weeks following hospital discharge. Outcome assessors are blinded to group allocation. Primary outcomes are emergency hospital readmissions and health service use, functional status, psychosocial well-being and cost effectiveness. Discussion The acute hospital sector comprises the largest component of health care system expenditure in developed countries, and older adults are the most frequent consumers. There are few trials to demonstrate effective models of transitional care to prevent emergency readmissions, loss of functional ability and independence in this population following an acute hospital admission. This study aims to address that gap and provide information for future health service planning which meets client needs and lowers the use of acute care services.

An improved method to detect damage using modal strain energy based damage index

This paper presents two novel concepts to enhance the accuracy of damage detection using the Modal Strain Energy based Damage Index (MSEDI) with the presence of noise in the mode shape data. Firstly, the paper presents a sequential curve fitting technique that reduces the effect of noise on the calculation process of the MSEDI, more effectively than the two commonly used curve fitting techniques; namely, polynomial and Fourier’s series. Secondly, a probability based Generalized Damage Localization Index (GDLI) is proposed as a viable improvement to the damage detection process. The study uses a validated ABAQUS finite-element model of a reinforced concrete beam to obtain mode shape data in the undamaged and damaged states. Noise is simulated by adding three levels of random noise (1%, 3%, and 5%) to the mode shape data. Results show that damage detection is enhanced with increased number of modes and samples used with the GDLI.

Real-time power line extraction from unmanned aerial system video images

In this paper a real-time vision based power line extraction solution is investigated for active UAV guidance. The line extraction algorithm starts from ridge points detected by steerable filters. A collinear line segments fitting algorithm is followed up by considering global and local information together with multiple collinear measurements. GPU boosted algorithm implementation is also investigated in the experiment. The experimental result shows that the proposed algorithm outperforms two baseline line detection algorithms and is able to fitting long collinear line segments. The low computational cost of the algorithm make suitable for real-time applications.

Anchored deformable face ensemble alignment

At present, many approaches have been proposed for deformable face alignment with varying degrees of success. However, the common drawback to nearly all these approaches is the inaccurate landmark registrations. The registration errors which occur are predominantly heterogeneous (i.e. low error for some frames in a sequence and higher error for others). In this paper we propose an approach for simultaneously aligning an ensemble of deformable face images stemming from the same subject given noisy heterogeneous landmark estimates. We propose that these initial noisy landmark estimates can be used as an “anchor” in conjunction with known state-of-the-art objectives for unsupervised image ensemble alignment. Impressive alignment performance is obtained using well known deformable face fitting algorithms as “anchors.

Fast power line detection and localization using steerable filter for active UAV guidance

In this paper we present a fast power line detection and localisation algorithm as well as propose a high-level guidance architecture for active vision-based Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) guidance. The detection stage is based on steerable filters for edge ridge detection, followed by a line fitting algorithm to refine candidate power lines in images. The guidance architecture assumes an UAV with an onboard Gimbal camera. We first control the position of the Gimbal such that the power line is in the field of view of the camera. Then its pose is used to generate the appropriate control commands such that the aircraft moves and flies above the lines. We present initial experimental results for the detection stage which shows that the proposed algorithm outperforms two state-of-the-art line detection algorithms for power line detection from aerial imagery.

Extracting deck trend to plan descent trajectory for safe landing of UAVs

This paper outlines a feasible scheme to extract deck trend when a rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (RUAV)approaches an oscillating deck. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) is de- veloped to fuse measurements from multiple sensors for effective estimation of the unknown deck heave motion. Also, a recursive Prony Analysis (PA) procedure is proposed to implement online curve-fitting of the estimated heave mo- tion. The proposed PA constructs an appropriate model with parameters identified using the forgetting factor recursive least square (FFRLS)method. The deck trend is then extracted by separating dominant modes. Performance of the proposed procedure is evaluated using real ship motion data, and simulation results justify the suitability of the proposed method into safe landing of RUAVs operating in a maritime environment.

Quality of life detriments through self-reported swelling associated with gynaecological cancer

Background and aims: Lower-limb lymphoedema is a serious and feared sequela after treatment for gynaecological cancer. Given the limited prospective data on incidence of and risk factors for lymphoedema after treatment for gynaecological cancer we initiated a prospective cohort study in 2008. Methods: Data were available for 353 women with malignant disease. Participants were assessed before treatment and at regular intervals after treatment for two years. Follow-up visits were grouped into time-periods of six weeks to six months (time 1), nine months to 15 months (time 2), and 18 months to 24 months (time 3). Preliminary data analyses were undertaken up to time 2 using generalised estimating equations to model the repeated measures data of Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General (FACT-G) quality of life (QoL) scores and self-reported swelling at each follow-up period (best-fitting covariance structure). Results: Depending on the time-period, between 30% and 40% of patients self-reported swelling of the lower limb. The QoL of those with self-reported swelling was lower at all time-periods compared with those who did not have swelling. Mean (95% CI) FACT-G scores at time 0, 1 and 2 were 80.7 (78.2, 83.2), 83.0 (81.0, 85.0) and 86.3 (84.2, 88.4), respectively for those with swelling and 85.0 (83.0, 86.9), 86.0 (84.1, 88.0) and 88.9 (87.0, 90.7), respectively for those without swelling. Conclusions: Lower-limb swelling adversely influences QoL and change in QoL over time in patients with gynaecological cancer.

Influence of atmospheric sublimation and evaporation on the heat pump fluid bed drying of bovine intestines

Experiments on atmospheric two-stage fluidized bed drying of bovine intestines with heat pump were carried out. The investigation covers innovative fluidized bed heat pump drying of bovine intestines. The two-stage drying consists of atmospheric moisture sublimation immediately followed by evaporation. Studies were done to establish the influence of the drying condition on the drying characteristics and product quality of bovine intestines and properties focusing on kinetics, diffusion, and color. The investigation of the drying characteristics has been conducted during moisture removal by evaporation and combined sublimation and evaporation. The effect of drying temperature on the drying constants was determined by fitting the experimental data using regression analysis techniques. The investigation revealed that the drying kinetics is most significantly affected by temperature. Correlations expressing the drying constants and effective moisture diffusivity dependence on the drying conditions are reported.

Everyday preschool talk about Christchurch earthquakes

This article investigates young children’s interactions with their peers and teachers following the events of the Christchurch earthquakes in New Zealand on September 2010 and February 2011. Drawing on conversation analysis and psychological literature, we focus on one outdoor excursion to visit a broken water pipe caused by the earthquake to show how the teacher and children mutually accomplished trouble telling and storying. A particular feature of talk was the use of pivotal utterances to transition from talking about the damaged environment, to talking about reflections of actual earthquake events. This article shows how teachers initiate and prompt children’s informal and spontaneous story telling as an interactional resource for discussing traumatic events.

Deformable face ensemble alignment with robust grouped-L1 anchors

Many methods exist at the moment for deformable face fitting. A drawback to nearly all these approaches is that they are (i) noisy in terms of landmark positions, and (ii) the noise is biased across frames (i.e. the misalignment is toward common directions across all frames). In this paper we propose a grouped $\mathcal{L}1$-norm anchored method for simultaneously aligning an ensemble of deformable face images stemming from the same subject, given noisy heterogeneous landmark estimates. Impressive alignment performance improvement and refinement is obtained using very weak initialization as "anchors".

Using a pharmacokinetic model to interpret biomonitoring data of PBDEs in the Australian population

From human biomonitoring data that are increasingly collected in the United States, Australia, and in other countries from large-scale field studies, we obtain snap-shots of concentration levels of various persistent organic pollutants (POPs) within a cross section of the population at different times. Not only can we observe the trends within this population with time, but we can also gain information going beyond the obvious time trends. By combining the biomonitoring data with pharmacokinetic modeling, we can re-construct the time-variant exposure to individual POPs, determine their intrinsic elimination half-lives in the human body, and predict future levels of POPs in the population. Different approaches have been employed to extract information from human biomonitoring data. Pharmacokinetic (PK) models were combined with longitudinal data1, with single2 or multiple3 average concentrations of a cross-sectional data (CSD), or finally with multiple CSD with or without empirical exposure data4. In the latter study, for the first time, the authors based their modeling outputs on two sets of CSD and empirical exposure data, which made it possible that their model outputs were further constrained due to the extensive body of empirical measurements. Here we use a PK model to analyze recent levels of PBDE concentrations measured in the Australian population. In this study, we are able to base our model results on four sets5-7 of CSD; we focus on two PBDE congeners that have been shown3,5,8-9 to differ in intake rates and half-lives with BDE-47 being associated with high intake rates and a short half-life and BDE-153 with lower intake rates and a longer half-life. By fitting the model to PBDE levels measured in different age groups in different years, we determine the level of intake of BDE-47 and BDE-153, as well as the half-lives of these two chemicals in the Australian population.

Feasibility of agent-based modelling of articular cartilage including a conceptual representation of its structure

Articular cartilage is a complex structure with an architecture in which fluid-swollen proteoglycans constrained within a 3D network of collagen fibrils. Because of the complexity of the cartilage structure, the relationship between its mechanical behaviours at the macroscale level and its components at the micro-scale level are not completely understood. The research objective in this thesis is to create a new model of articular cartilage that can be used to simulate and obtain insight into the micro-macro-interaction and mechanisms underlying its mechanical responses during physiological function. The new model of articular cartilage has two characteristics, namely: i) not use fibre-reinforced composite material idealization ii) Provide a framework for that it does probing the micro mechanism of the fluid-solid interaction underlying the deformation of articular cartilage using simple rules of repartition instead of constitutive / physical laws and intuitive curve-fitting. Even though there are various microstructural and mechanical behaviours that can be studied, the scope of this thesis is limited to osmotic pressure formation and distribution and their influence on cartilage fluid diffusion and percolation, which in turn governs the deformation of the compression-loaded tissue. The study can be divided into two stages. In the first stage, the distributions and concentrations of proteoglycans, collagen and water were investigated using histological protocols. Based on this, the structure of cartilage was conceptualised as microscopic osmotic units that consist of these constituents that were distributed according to histological results. These units were repeated three-dimensionally to form the structural model of articular cartilage. In the second stage, cellular automata were incorporated into the resulting matrix (lattice) to simulate the osmotic pressure of the fluid and the movement of water within and out of the matrix; following the osmotic pressure gradient in accordance with the chosen rule of repartition of the pressure. The outcome of this study is the new model of articular cartilage that can be used to simulate and study the micromechanical behaviours of cartilage under different conditions of health and loading. These behaviours are illuminated at the microscale level using the socalled neighbourhood rules developed in the thesis in accordance with the typical requirements of cellular automata modelling. Using these rules and relevant Boundary Conditions to simulate pressure distribution and related fluid motion produced significant results that provided the following insight into the relationships between osmotic pressure gradient and associated fluid micromovement, and the deformation of the matrix. For example, it could be concluded that: 1. It is possible to model articular cartilage with the agent-based model of cellular automata and the Margolus neighbourhood rule. 2. The concept of 3D inter connected osmotic units is a viable structural model for the extracellular matrix of articular cartilage. 3. Different rules of osmotic pressure advection lead to different patterns of deformation in the cartilage matrix, enabling an insight into how this micromechanism influences macromechanical deformation. 4. When features such as transition coefficient were changed, permeability (representing change) is altered due to the change in concentrations of collagen, proteoglycans (i.e. degenerative conditions), the deformation process is impacted. 5. The boundary conditions also influence the relationship between osmotic pressure gradient and fluid movement at the micro-scale level. The outcomes are important to cartilage research since we can use these to study the microscale damage in the cartilage matrix. From this, we are able to monitor related diseases and their progression leading to potential insight into drug-cartilage interaction for treatment. This innovative model is an incremental progress on attempts at creating further computational modelling approaches to cartilage research and other fluid-saturated tissues and material systems.