Intelligent reliability analysis with incomplete covariates

The reliability analysis is crucial to reducing unexpected down time, severe failures and ever tightened maintenance budget of engineering assets. Hazard based reliability methods are of particular interest as hazard reflects the current health status of engineering assets and their imminent failure risks. Most existing hazard models were constructed using the statistical methods. However, these methods were established largely based on two assumptions: one is the assumption of baseline failure distributions being accurate to the population concerned and the other is the assumption of effects of covariates on hazards. These two assumptions may be difficult to achieve and therefore compromise the effectiveness of hazard models in the application. To address this issue, a non-linear hazard modelling approach is developed in this research using neural networks (NNs), resulting in neural network hazard models (NNHMs), to deal with limitations due to the two assumptions for statistical models. With the success of failure prevention effort, less failure history becomes available for reliability analysis. Involving condition data or covariates is a natural solution to this challenge. A critical issue for involving covariates in reliability analysis is that complete and consistent covariate data are often unavailable in reality due to inconsistent measuring frequencies of multiple covariates, sensor failure, and sparse intrusive measurements. This problem has not been studied adequately in current reliability applications. This research thus investigates such incomplete covariates problem in reliability analysis. Typical approaches to handling incomplete covariates have been studied to investigate their performance and effects on the reliability analysis results. Since these existing approaches could underestimate the variance in regressions and introduce extra uncertainties to reliability analysis, the developed NNHMs are extended to include handling incomplete covariates as an integral part. The extended versions of NNHMs have been validated using simulated bearing data and real data from a liquefied natural gas pump. The results demonstrate the new approach outperforms the typical incomplete covariates handling approaches. Another problem in reliability analysis is that future covariates of engineering assets are generally unavailable. In existing practices for multi-step reliability analysis, historical covariates were used to estimate the future covariates. Covariates of engineering assets, however, are often subject to substantial fluctuation due to the influence of both engineering degradation and changes in environmental settings. The commonly used covariate extrapolation methods thus would not be suitable because of the error accumulation and uncertainty propagation. To overcome this difficulty, instead of directly extrapolating covariate values, projection of covariate states is conducted in this research. The estimated covariate states and unknown covariate values in future running steps of assets constitute an incomplete covariate set which is then analysed by the extended NNHMs. A new assessment function is also proposed to evaluate risks of underestimated and overestimated reliability analysis results. A case study using field data from a paper and pulp mill has been conducted and it demonstrates that this new multi-step reliability analysis procedure is able to generate more accurate analysis results.

Recommending people in social networks using data mining

This thesis improves the process of recommending people to people in social networks using new clustering algorithms and ranking methods. The proposed system and methods are evaluated on the data collected from a real life social network. The empirical analysis of this research confirms that the proposed system and methods achieved improvements in the accuracy and efficiency of matching and recommending people, and overcome some of the problems that social matching systems usually suffer.

A semi-supervised graph-based algorithm for detecting outliers in online-social-networks

In this paper, we propose a semi-supervised approach of anomaly detection in Online Social Networks. The social network is modeled as a graph and its features are extracted to detect anomaly. A clustering algorithm is then used to group users based on these features and fuzzy logic is applied to assign degree of anomalous behavior to the users of these clusters. Empirical analysis shows effectiveness of this method.

Community college faculty's teaching social networks and their implications for librarians

Collaboration between faculty and librarians is an important topic of discussion and research among academic librarians. These partnerships between faculty and librarians are vital for enabling students to become lifelong learners through their information literacy education. This research developed an understanding of academic collaborators by analyzing a community college faculty's teaching social networks. A teaching social network, an original term generated in this study, is comprised of communications that influence faculty when they design and deliver their courses. The communication may be formal (e.g., through scholarly journals and professional development activities) and informal (e.g., through personal communication) through their network elements. Examples of the elements of a teaching social network may be department faculty, administration, librarians, professional development, and students. This research asked 'What is the nature of faculty's teaching social networks and what are the implications for librarians?' This study moves forward the existing research on collaboration, information literacy, and social network analysis. It provides both faculty and librarians with added insight into their existing and potential relationships. This research was undertaken using mixed methods. Social network analysis was the quantitative data collection methodology and the interview method was the qualitative technique. For the social network analysis data, a survey was sent to full-time faculty at Las Positas College, a community college, in California. The survey gathered the data and described the teaching social networks for faculty with respect to their teaching methods and content taught. Semi-structured interviews were conducted following the survey with a sub-set of survey respondents to understand why specific elements were included in their teaching social networks and to learn of ways for librarians to become an integral part of the teaching social networks. The majority of the faculty respondents were moderately influenced by the elements of their network except the majority of the potentials were weakly influenced by the elements in their network in their content taught. The elements with the most influence on both teaching methods and content taught were students, department faculty, professional development, and former graduate professors and coursework. The elements with the least influence on both aspects were public or academic librarians, and social media. The most popular roles for the elements were conversations about teaching, sharing ideas, tips for teaching, insights into teaching, suggestions for ways of teaching, and how to engage students. Librarians' weakly influenced faculty in their teaching methods and their content taught. The motivating factors for collaboration with librarians were that students learned how to research, students' research projects improved, faculty saved time by having librarians provide the instruction to students, and faculty built strong working relationships with librarians. The challenges of collaborating with librarians were inadequate teaching techniques used when librarians taught research orientations and lack of time. Ways librarians can be more integral in faculty's teaching social networks included: more workshops for faculty, more proactive interaction with faculty, and more one-on-one training sessions for faculty. Some of the recommendations for the librarians from this study were develop a strong rapport with faculty, librarians should build their services in information literacy from the point of view of the faculty instead of from the librarian perspective, use staff development funding to attend conferences and workshops to improve their teaching, develop more training sessions for faculty, increase marketing efforts of the librarian's instructional services, and seek grant opportunities to increase funding for the library. In addition, librarians and faculty should review the definitions of information literacy and move from a skills based interpretation to a learning process.

Tangled Webs : Using Bayesian Networks in the Fight Against Infection

Bayesian networks (BNs) provide a statistical modelling framework which is ideally suited for modelling the many factors and components of complex problems such as healthcare-acquired infections. The methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) organism is particularly troublesome since it is resistant to standard treatments for Staph infections. Overcrowding and understa�ng are believed to increase infection transmission rates and also to inhibit the effectiveness of disease control measures. Clearly the mechanisms behind MRSA transmission and containment are very complicated and control strategies may only be e�ective when used in combination. BNs are growing in popularity in general and in medical sciences in particular. A recent Current Content search of the number of published BN journal articles showed a fi�ve fold increase in general and a six fold increase in medical and veterinary science from 2000 to 2009. This chapter introduces the reader to Bayesian network (BN) modelling and an iterative modelling approach to build and test the BN created to investigate the possible role of high bed occupancy on transmission of MRSA while simultaneously taking into account other risk factors.

A case study analysis of Israeli Organised Crime (IOC) (1990-2005) : applying the Crime Business Analysis Matrix (CBAM)

Israeli Organised Crime (IOC) gained prominence in the 1990s for its involvement in the manufacturing and wholesale distribution of MDMA through traditional trafficking networks across Europe. Equipped with astute business acumen and an entrepreneurial spirit, IOC dominated MDMA trafficking in Europe for more than a decade and remains as a major participant in this drug market. The paper analyses the entrepreneurial activities of IOC within the context of the MDMA market in Europe between 1990 and 2005 using the Crime Business Analysis Matrix (CBAM) as proffered by Dean, et al (2010). The study is in two parts. Part A provides a review of the literature as it pertains to IOC and its involvement in the European drug market, while Part B provides a qualitative analysis of their criminal business practices and entrepreneurialism of IOC within this context.

Enterprise social networks : a business model perspective

Enterprise Social Networks continue to be adopted by organisations looking to increase collaboration between employees, customers and industry partners. Offering a varied range of features and functionality, this technology can be distinguished by the underlying business models that providers of this software deploy. This study identifies and describes the different business models through an analysis of leading Enterprise Social Networks: Yammer, Chatter, SharePoint, Connections, Jive, Facebook and Twitter. A key contribution of this research is the identification of consumer and corporate models as extreme approaches. These findings align well with research on the adoption of Enterprise Social Networks that has discussed bottom-up and top-down approaches. Of specific interest are hybrid models that wrap a corporate model within a consumer model and may, therefore, provide synergies on both models. From a broader perspective, this can be seen as the merging of the corporate and consumer markets for IT products and services.

Networked masculinities and social networking sites : a call for the analysis of men and contemporary digital media

It is of course recognised that technology can be gendered and implicated in gender relations. However, it continues to be the case that men’s experiences with technology are underexplored and the situation is even more problematic where digital media is concerned. Over the past 30 years we have witnessed a dramatic rise in the pervasiveness of digital media across many parts of the world and as associated with wide ranging aspects of our lives. This rise has been fuelled over the last decade by the emergence of Web 2.0 and particularly Social Networking Sites (SNS). Given this context, I believe it is necessary for us to undertake more work to understand men’s engagements with digital media, the implications this might have for masculinities and the analysis of gender relations more generally. To begin to unpack this area, I engage theorizations of the properties of digital media networks and integrate this with the masculinity studies field. Using this framework, I suggest we need to consider the rise in what I call networked masculinities – those masculinities (co)produced and reproduced with digitally networked publics. Through this analysis I discuss themes related to digital mediators, relationships, play and leisure, work and commerce, and ethics. I conclude that as masculinities can be, and are being, complicated and given agency by advancing notions and practices of connectivity, mobility, classification and convergence, those engaged with masculinity studies and digital media have much to contribute.

A Near-Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy Method for Direct Analysis of Several Chemical Components and Properties of Fruit, for Example, Chinese Hawthorn

Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) calibrations were developed for the discrimination of Chinese hawthorn (Crataegus pinnatifida Bge. var. major) fruit from three geographical regions as well as for the estimation of the total sugar, total acid, total phenolic content, and total antioxidant activity. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used for the discrimination of the fruit on the basis of their geographical origin. Three pattern recognition methods, linear discriminant analysis, partial least-squares-discriminant analysis, and back-propagation artificial neural networks, were applied to classify and compare these samples. Furthermore, three multivariate calibration models based on the first derivative NIR spectroscopy, partial least-squares regression, back-propagation artificial neural networks, and least-squares-support vector machines, were constructed for quantitative analysis of the four analytes, total sugar, total acid, total phenolic content, and total antioxidant activity, and validated by prediction data sets.

Predicting voltage unbalance impacts of plug-in electric vehicles penetration in residential low-voltage distribution networks

Plug-in electric vehicles will soon be connected to residential distribution networks in high quantities and will add to already overburdened residential feeders. However, as battery technology improves, plug-in electric vehicles will also be able to support networks as small distributed generation units by transferring the energy stored in their battery into the grid. Even though the increase in the plug-in electric vehicle connection is gradual, their connection points and charging/discharging levels are random. Therefore, such single-phase bidirectional power flows can have an adverse effect on the voltage unbalance of a three-phase distribution network. In this article, a voltage unbalance sensitivity analysis based on charging/discharging levels and the connection point of plug-in electric vehicles in a residential low-voltage distribution network is presented. Due to the many uncertainties in plug-in electric vehicle ratings and connection points and the network load, a Monte Carlo-based stochastic analysis is developed to predict voltage unbalance in the network in the presence of plug-in electric vehicles. A failure index is introduced to demonstrate the probability of non-standard voltage unbalance in the network due to plug-in electric vehicles.

Bayesian networks in environmental and resource management

This overview article for the special series “Bayesian Networks in Environmental and Resource Management” reviews 7 case study articles with the aim to compare Bayesian network (BN) applications to different environmental and resource management problems from around the world. The article discusses advances in the last decade in the use of BNs as applied to environmental and resource management. We highlight progress in computational methods, best-practices for model design and model communication. We review several research challenges to the use of BNs in environmental and resource management that we think may find a solution in the near future with further research attention.

ADCS reaches adulthood : an analysis of the conference and its community over the last eighteen years

How influential is the Australian Document Computing Symposium (ADCS)? What do ADCS articles speak about and who cites them? Who is the ADCS community and how has it evolved? This paper considers eighteen years of ADCS, investigating both the conference and its community. A content analysis of the proceedings uncovers the diversity of topics covered in ADCS and how these have changed over the years. Citation analysis reveals the impact of the papers. The number of authors and where they originate from reveal who has contributed to the conference. Finally, we generate co-author networks which reveal the collaborations within the community. These networks show how clusters of researchers form, the effect geographic location has on collaboration, and how these have evolved over time.

Social networks in arid Australia : a review of concepts and evidence

Arid systems are markedly different from non-arid systems. This distinctiveness extends to arid-social networks, by which we mean social networks which are influenced by the suite of factors driving arid and semi-arid regions. Neither the process of how aridity interacts with social structure, nor what happens as a result of this interaction, is adequately understood. This paper postulates three relative characteristics which make arid-social networks distinct: that they are tightly bound, are hierarchical in structure and, hence, prone to power abuses, and contain a relatively higher proportion of weak links, making them reactive to crisis. These ideas were modified from workshop discussions during 2006. Although they are neither tested nor presented as strong beliefs, they are based on the anecdotal observations of arid-system scientists with many years of experience. This paper does not test the ideas, but rather examines them in the context of five arid-social network case studies with the aim of hypotheses building. Our cases are networks related to pastoralism, Aboriginal outstations, the ‘Far West Coast Aboriginal Enterprise Network’ and natural resources in both the Lake-Eyre basin and the Murray–Darling catchment. Our cases highlight that (1) social networks do not have clear boundaries, and that how participants perceive their network boundaries may differ from what network data imply, (2) although network structures are important determinants of system behaviour, the role of participants as individuals is still pivotal, (3) and while in certain arid cases weak links are engaged in crisis, the exact structure of all weak links in terms of how they place participants in relation to other communities is what matters.

Voltage quality improvement in distribution networks containing DERs using UPQC

Single phase distributed energy resources (DERs) can cause voltage rise along distribution feeder and power imbalance among the phases. Usually transformer tap setting are used to mitigate voltage drop along feeders. However this can aggravate the voltage rise problem when DERs are connected. Moreover if the power generation in a phase is more than its load demand, the excess power in that phase will be fed back to the transmission network. In this paper, a unified power quality compensator (UPQC) has been utilized to alleviate the voltage quality excess power circulation problems. Through analysis and simulation results, the mode of operation of UPQC is highlighted. The proposals are validated through extensive digital computer simulation studies using PSCAD and MATLAB.

Export readiness index : construction and analysis

The internationalisation process of firms has attracted much research interest since the 1970s. It is noted, however, that a significant research gap exists in studies with a primary focus on the pre-internationalisation behaviour of firms. This paper proposes the incorporation of a pre-internationalisation phase into the traditional Uppsala model of firm internationalisation to address the issue of export readiness. Through extensive literature review, the concepts fundamental to the ability of an Uppsala type firm to begin internationalisation through an export entry mode are identified: exposure to stimuli factors, attitudinal commitment of decision makers towards exporting, the firm’s resource capabilities, as well as the moderating effect of lateral rigidity. The concept of export readiness is operationalised in this study through the construction of an export readiness index (ERI) using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. The index is then applied to some representative cases and tested using logistic regression to establish its validity as a diagnostic tool. The proposed ERI presents not only a more practical approach towards analysing firms’ export readiness but has also major public policy implications as a possible tool for government export promotion agencies.