128 resultados para Nelson and Siegel model
Resumo:
Stations on Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines ordinarily control line capacity because they act as bottlenecks. At stations with passing lanes, congestion may occur when buses maneuvering into and out of the platform stopping lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the station blocking inflow. We contend that, as bus inflow to the station area approaches capacity, queuing will become excessive in a manner similar to operation of a minor movement on an unsignalized intersection. This analogy was used to treat BRT station operation and to analyze the relationship between station queuing and capacity. We conducted microscopic simulation to study and analyze operating characteristics of the station under near steady state conditions through output variables of capacity, degree of saturation and queuing. In the first of two stages, a mathematical model was developed for all stopping buses potential capacity with bus to bus interference and the model was validated. Secondly, a mathematical model was developed to estimate the relationship between average queue and degree of saturation and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of mean and coefficient of variation of dwell time.
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This work explores the potential of Australian native plants as a source of second-generation biodiesel for internal combustion engines application. Biodiesels were evaluated from a number of non-edible oil seeds which are grow naturally in Queensland, Australia. The quality of the produced biodiesels has been investigated by several experimental and numerical methods. The research methodology and numerical model developed in this study can be used for a broad range of biodiesel feedstocks and for the future development of renewable native biodiesel in Australia.
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This paper presents a novel path planning method for minimizing the energy consumption of an autonomous underwater vehicle subjected to time varying ocean disturbances and forecast model uncertainty. The algorithm determines 4-Dimensional path candidates using Nonlinear Robust Model Predictive Control (NRMPC) and solutions optimised using A*-like algorithms. Vehicle performance limits are incorporated into the algorithm with disturbances represented as spatial and temporally varying ocean currents with a bounded uncertainty in their predictions. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated through simulations using a 4-Dimensional, spatially distributed time-series predictive ocean current model. Results show the combined NRMPC and A* approach is capable of generating energy-efficient paths which are resistant to both dynamic disturbances and ocean model uncertainty.
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Purpose This paper aims to set out a new hierarchical and differentiated model of social marketing principles, concepts and techniques that builds on, but supersedes, the existing lists of non-equivalent and undifferentiated benchmark criteria. Design/methodology/approach This is a conceptual paper that proposes a hierarchical model of social marketing principles, concepts and techniques. Findings This new delineation of the social marketing principle, its four core concepts and five techniques, represents a new way to conceptualize and recognize the different elements that constitute social marketing. This new model will help add to and further the development of the theoretical basis of social marketing, building on the definitional work led by the International Social Marketing Association (iSMA), Australian Association of Social Marketing (AASM) and European Social Marketing Association (ESMA). Research limitations/implications This proposed model offers a foundation for future research to expand upon. Further research is recommended to empirically test the proposed model. Originality/value This paper seeks to advance the theoretical base of social marketing by making a reasoned case for the need to differentiate between principles, concepts and techniques when seeking to describe social marketing.
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In the present study, items pre-exposed in a familiarization series were included in a list discrimination task to manipulate memory strength. At test, participants were required to discriminate strong targets and strong lures from weak targets and new lures. This resulted in a concordant pattern of increased "old" responses to strong targets and lures. Model estimates attributed this pattern to either equivalent increases in memory strength across the two types of items (unequal variance signal detection model) or equivalent increases in both familiarity and recollection (dual process signal detection [DPSD] model). Hippocampal activity associated with strong targets and lures showed equivalent increases compared with missed items. This remained the case when analyses were restricted to high-confidence responses considered by the DPSD model to reflect predominantly recollection. A similar pattern of activity was observed in parahippocampal cortex for high-confidence responses. The present results are incompatible with "noncriterial" or "false" recollection being reflected solely in inflated DPSD familiarity estimates and support a positive correlation between hippocampal activity and memory strength irrespective of the accuracy of list discrimination, consistent with the unequal variance signal detection model account.
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This study tested the utility of a stress and coping model of employee adjustment to a merger. Two hundred and twenty employees completed both questionnaires (Time 1: 3 months after merger implementation; Time 2: 2 years later). Structural equation modeling analyses revealed that positive event characteristics predicted greater appraisals of self-efficacy and less stress at Time 1. Self-efficacy, in turn, predicted greater use of problem-focused coping at Time 2, whereas stress predicted a greater use of problem-focused and avoidance coping. Finally, problem-focused coping predicted higher levels of job satisfaction and identification with the merged organization (Time 2), whereas avoidance coping predicted lower identification.
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This article considers the significance of a leading marine biodiscovery initiative. In March 2004, Dr. J. Craig Venter announced the official launch of the Sorcerer II Expedition, a scientific expedition of discovery, which would survey marine and terrestrial microbial populations. The Expedition has the potential to uncover tens of thousands of new microbial species and tens of millions of new genes. Venter has disavowed that the Sorcerer II Expedition has any commercial ambitions. However, some have viewed the Sorcerer II Expedition with suspicion. Various civil society groups have accused the Expedition of engaging in 'biopiracy'. This article investigates the Convention on Biological Diversity 1992 and other relevant international treaties, various national and regional regimes to govern access to genetic resources, and benefit-sharing agreements. It considers the intersection of intellectual property law, contract law, environmental law, and international law in this field. This article provides a blueprint for a nationally consistent scheme for access to genetic resources, and a model for future international developments.
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If the land sector is to make significant contributions to mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming decades, it must do so while concurrently expanding production of food and fiber. In our view, mathematical modeling will be required to provide scientific guidance to meet this challenge. In order to be useful in GHG mitigation policy measures, models must simultaneously meet scientific, software engineering, and human capacity requirements. They can be used to understand GHG fluxes, to evaluate proposed GHG mitigation actions, and to predict and monitor the effects of specific actions; the latter applications require a change in mindset that has parallels with the shift from research modeling to decision support. We compare and contrast 6 agro-ecosystem models (FullCAM, DayCent, DNDC, APSIM, WNMM, and AgMod), chosen because they are used in Australian agriculture and forestry. Underlying structural similarities in the representations of carbon flows though plants and soils in these models are complemented by a diverse range of emphases and approaches to the subprocesses within the agro-ecosystem. None of these agro-ecosystem models handles all land sector GHG fluxes, and considerable model-based uncertainty exists for soil C fluxes and enteric methane emissions. The models also show diverse approaches to the initialisation of model simulations, software implementation, distribution, licensing, and software quality assurance; each of these will differentially affect their usefulness for policy-driven GHG mitigation prediction and monitoring. Specific requirements imposed on the use of models by Australian mitigation policy settings are discussed, and areas for further scientific development of agro-ecosystem models for use in GHG mitigation policy are proposed.
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The mechanical environment around the healing of broken bone is very important as it determines the way the fracture will heal. Over the past decade there has been great clinical interest in improving bone healing by altering the mechanical environment through the fixation stability around the lesion. One constraint of preclinical animal research in this area is the lack of experimental control over the local mechanical environment within a large segmental defect as well as osteotomies as they heal. In this paper we report on the design and use of an external fixator to study the healing of large segmental bone defects or osteotomies. This device not only allows for controlled axial stiffness on the bone lesion as it heals, but it also enables the change of stiffness during the healing process in vivo. The conducted experiments have shown that the fixators were able to maintain a 5 mm femoral defect gap in rats in vivo during unrestricted cage activity for at least 8 weeks. Likewise, we observed no distortion or infections, including pin infections during the entire healing period. These results demonstrate that our newly developed external fixator was able to achieve reproducible and standardized stabilization, and the alteration of the mechanical environment of in vivo rat large bone defects and various size osteotomies. This confirms that the external fixation device is well suited for preclinical research investigations using a rat model in the field of bone regeneration and repair.
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Interstitial fibrosis, a histological process common to many kidney diseases, is the precursor state to end stage kidney disease, a devastating and costly outcome for the patient and the health system. Fibrosis is historically associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) but emerging evidence is now linking many forms of acute kidney disease (AKD) with the development of CKD. Indeed, we and others have observed at least some degree of fibrosis in up to 50% of clinically defined cases of AKD. Epithelial cells of the proximal tubule (PTEC) are central in the development of kidney interstitial fibrosis. We combine the novel techniques of laser capture microdissection and multiplex-tandem PCR to identify and quantitate “real time” gene transcription profiles of purified PTEC isolated from human kidney biopsies that describe signaling pathways associated with this pathological fibrotic process. Our results: (i) confirm previous in-vitro and animal model studies; kidney injury molecule-1 is up-regulated in patients with acute tubular injury, inflammation, neutrophil infiltration and a range of chronic disease diagnoses, (ii) provide data to inform treatment; complement component 3 expression correlates with inflammation and acute tubular injury, (iii) identify potential new biomarkers; proline 4-hydroxylase transcription is down-regulated and vimentin is up-regulated across kidney diseases, (iv) describe previously unrecognized feedback mechanisms within PTEC; Smad-3 is down-regulated in many kidney diseases suggesting a possible negative feedback loop for TGF-β in the disease state, whilst tight junction protein-1 is up-regulated in many kidney diseases, suggesting feedback interactions with vimentin expression. These data demonstrate that the combined techniques of laser capture microdissection and multiplex-tandem PCR have the power to study molecular signaling within single cell populations derived from clinically sourced tissue.
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Australia needs more Indigenous nurses. This is widely recognised in both academic literature and government policy. In 2012, only 0.8 percent of the Australian nursing workforce was Indigenous (AIHW, 2012). In spite of the clear need, there is little discussion about how to successfully recruit, retain and graduate Indigenous nursing students. This paper describes a successful program being implemented at the University of Southern Queensland (USQ). Between 2000 and 2012, USQ graduated 80 Indigenous nurses and midwives, at both undergraduate and postgraduate levels. In this paper, the authors outline the journey they undertook to develop the successful program at USQ: the Indigenous Nursing Support (INS) Model: Helping Hands. They argue that four elements underpin success for Indigenous nursing students: the availability of Indigenous academics, Indigenous health content in the nursing curriculum, Indigenous-specific recruitment materials, and individual mentoring and nurturing of Indigenous students.
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Nondeclarative memory and novelty processing in the brain is an actively studied field of neuroscience, and reducing neural activity with repetition of a stimulus (repetition suppression) is a commonly observed phenomenon. Recent findings of an opposite trend specifically, rising activity for unfamiliar stimuli—question the generality of repetition suppression and stir debate over the underlying neural mechanisms. This letter introduces a theory and computational model that extend existing theories and suggests that both trends are, in principle, the rising and falling parts of an inverted U-shaped dependence of activity with respect to stimulus novelty that may naturally emerge in a neural network with Hebbian learning and lateral inhibition. We further demonstrate that the proposed model is sufficient for the simulation of dissociable forms of repetition priming using real-world stimuli. The results of our simulation also suggest that the novelty of stimuli used in neuroscientific research must be assessed in a particularly cautious way. The potential importance of the inverted-U in stimulus processing and its relationship to the acquisition of knowledge and competencies in humans is also discussed
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A series of observational studies have been made to investigate the association of the ADAM33 gene polymorphisms with the risk of COPD, but their results were conflicting. Therefore, we performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the associations of ADAM33 gene polymorphisms with the risk of COPD. Thirteen case–control studies referring to nine SNPs were identified: V4 (rs2787094), T+1 (rs2280089), T2 (rs2280090), T1 (rs2280091), S2 (rs528557), S1 (rs3918396), Q−1 (rs612709), F+1 (rs511898) and ST+5 (rs597980). A dominant model (AA+Aa vs. aa), recessive model (AA vs. Aa+aa), additive model (AA vs. aa) and allelic model (A vs. a) were used to evaluate the association of ADAM33 polymorphism with the risk of COPD. The results indicated that significant associations were found for ADAM33 T1, T2, S1, Q−1, F+1 and ST+5 polymorphisms associated with the risk of COPD in different populations. However, no significant associations were found for V4, T+1 and S2 polymorphisms with the risk of COPD in all genetic models, even in the subgroup analysis by ethnicity. This meta-analysis provided evidence that the ADAM33 T1, T2, S1, Q−1, F+1 and ST+5 six locus polymorphisms association with the risk of COPD. Furthermore, T2, Q−1 and ST+5 indicated an association with the risk of COPD in the European populations, whereas T1, T2, S1, F+1 and Q−1 indicated an association with the risk of COPD in the Asian populations.
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This paper demonstrates the procedures for probabilistic assessment of a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, to elucidate the modeling uncertainty using the Monte Carlo technique. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the influence of herbicide characteristics and related soil properties on model outputs using four popular rice herbicides: mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. Uncertainty quantification showed that the simulated concentrations in paddy water varied more than those of paddy soil. This tendency decreased as the simulation proceeded to a later period but remained important for herbicides having either high solubility or a high 1st-order dissolution rate. The sensitivity analysis indicated that PCPF-1 parameters requiring careful determination are primarily those involve with herbicide adsorption (the organic carbon content, the bulk density and the volumetric saturated water content), secondary parameters related with herbicide mass distribution between paddy water and soil (1st-order desorption and dissolution rates) and lastly, those involving herbicide degradations. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.
Resumo:
Uncertainty assessments of herbicide losses from rice paddies in Japan associated with local meteorological conditions and water management practices were performed using a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, under the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation scheme. First, MC simulations were conducted for five different cities with a prescribed water management scenario and a 10-year meteorological dataset of each city. The effectiveness of water management was observed regarding the reduction of pesticide runoff. However, a greater potential of pesticide runoff remained in Western Japan. Secondly, an extended analysis was attempted to evaluate the effects of local water management and meteorological conditions between the Chikugo River basin and the Sakura River basin using uncertainty inputs processed from observed water management data. The results showed that because of more severe rainfall events, significant pesticide runoff occurred in the Chikugo River basin even when appropriate irrigation practices were implemented. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.