Advance transit oriented development typology : case study in Brisbane, Australia

Internationally, transit oriented development (TOD) is characterised by moderate to high density development with diverse land use patterns and well connected street networks centred around high frequency transit stops (bus and rail). Although different TOD typologies have been developed in different contexts, they are based on subjective evaluation criteria derived from the context in which they are built and typically lack a validation measure. Arguably there exist sets of TOD characteristics that perform better in certain contexts, and being able to optimise TOD effectiveness would facilitate planning and supporting policy development. This research utilises data from census collection districts (CCDs) in Brisbane with different sets of TOD attributes measured across six objectively quantified built environmental indicators: net employment density, net residential density, land use diversity, intersection density, cul-de-sac density, and public transport accessibility. Using these measures, a Two Step Cluster Analysis was conducted to identify natural groupings of the CCDs with similar profiles, resulting in four unique TOD clusters: (a) residential TODs, (b) activity centre TODs, (c) potential TODs, and; (d) TOD non-suitability. The typologies are validated by estimating a multinomial logistic regression model in order to understand the mode choice behaviour of 10,013 individuals living in these areas. Results indicate that in comparison to people living in areas classified as residential TODs, people who reside in non-TOD clusters were significantly less likely to use public transport (PT) (1.4 times), and active transport (4 times) compared to the car. People living in areas classified as potential TODs were 1.3 times less likely to use PT, and 2.5 times less likely to use active transport compared to using the car. Only a little difference in mode choice behaviour was evident between people living in areas classified as residential TODs and activity centre TODs. The results suggest that: (a) two types of TODs may be suitable for classification and effect mode choice in Brisbane; (b) TOD typology should be developed based on their TOD profile and performance matrices; (c) both bus stop and train station based TODs are suitable for development in Brisbane.

Maternal exposure to heatwave and preterm birth in Brisbane, Australia

Objective To quantify the short-term effects of maternal exposure to heatwave on preterm birth. Design An ecological study. Setting: A population-based study in Brisbane, Australia. Population All pregnant women who had a spontaneous singleton live birth in Brisbane between November and March in 2000–2010 were studied. Methods Daily data on pregnancy outcomes, meteorological factors, and ambient air pollutants were obtained. The Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-dependent variables was used to examine the short-term impact of heatwave on preterm birth. A series of cut-off temperatures and durations were used to define heatwave. Multivariable analyses were also performed to adjust for socio-economic factors, demographic factors, meteorological factors, and ambient air pollutants. Main outcome measure Spontaneous preterm births. Results The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) ranged from 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.24) to 2.00 (95% CI 1.37–2.91) by using different heatwave definitions, after controlling for demographic, socio-economic, and meteorological factors, and air pollutants. Conclusions Heatwave was significantly associated with preterm birth: the associations were robust to the definitions of heatwave. The threshold temperatures, instead of duration, could be more likely to influence the evaluation of birth-related heatwaves. The findings of this study may have significant public health implications as climate change progresses.

Motion planning and stochastic control with experimental validation on a planetary rover

Motion planning for planetary rovers must consider control uncertainty in order to maintain the safety of the platform during navigation. Modelling such control uncertainty is difficult due to the complex interaction between the platform and its environment. In this paper, we propose a motion planning approach whereby the outcome of control actions is learned from experience and represented statistically using a Gaussian process regression model. This model is used to construct a control policy for navigation to a goal region in a terrain map built using an on-board RGB-D camera. The terrain includes flat ground, small rocks, and non-traversable rocks. We report the results of 200 simulated and 35 experimental trials that validate the approach and demonstrate the value of considering control uncertainty in maintaining platform safety.

Retinal nerve fibre layer thickness is associated with higher risk of foot ulceration in diabetic peripheral neuropathy

Purpose To evaluate the association between retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thickness and diabetic peripheral neuropathy in people with type 2 diabetes, and specifically those at higher risk of foot ulceration. Methods RNFL thicknesses was measured globally and in four quadrants (temporal, superior, nasal and inferior) at 3.45 mm diameter around the optic nerve head using optical coherence tomography (OCT). Severity of neuropathy was assessed using the Neuropathy Disability Score (NDS). Eighty-two participants with type 2 diabetes were stratified according to NDS scores (0-10) as: none, mild, moderate, and severe neuropathy. A control group was additionally included (n=17). Individuals with NDS≥ 6 (moderate and severe neuropathy) have been shown to be at higher risk of foot ulceration. A linear regression model was used to determine the association between RNFL and severity of neuropathy. Age, disease duration and diabetic retinopathy levels were fitted in the models. Independent t-test was employed for comparison between controls and the group without neuropathy, as well as for comparison between groups with higher and lower risk of foot ulceration. Analysis of variance was used to compare across all NDS groups. Results RNFL thickness was significantly associated with NDS in the inferior quadrant (b= -1.46, p=0.03). RNFL thicknesses globally and in superior, temporal and nasal quadrants did not show significant associations with NDS (all p>0.51). These findings were independent of the effect of age, disease duration and retinopathy. RNFL was thinner for the group with NDS ≥ 6 in all quadrants but was significant only inferiorly (p<0.005). RNFL for control participants was not significantly different from the group with diabetes and no neuropathy (superior p=0.07, global and all other quadrants: p>0.23). Mean RNFL thickness was not significantly different between the four NDS groups globally and in all quadrants (p=0.08 for inferior, P>0.14 for all other comparisons). Conclusions Retinal nerve fibre layer thinning is associated with neuropathy in people with type 2 diabetes. This relationship is strongest in the inferior retina and in individuals at higher risk of foot ulceration.

Australian baby boomers switched to more environment friendly modes of transport during the global financial crisis

The global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008 rocked local, regional, and state economies throughout the world. Several intermediate outcomes of the GFC have been well documented in the literature including loss of jobs and reduced income. Relatively little research has, however, examined the impacts of the GFC on individual level travel behaviour change. To address this shortcoming, HABITAT panel data were employed to estimate a multinomial logit model to examine mode switching behaviour between 2007 (pre-GFC) and 2009 (post-GFC) of a baby boomers cohort in Brisbane, Australia—a city within a developed country that has been on many metrics the least affected by the GFC. In addition, a Poisson regression model was estimated to model the number of trips made by individuals in 2007, 2008, and 2009. The South East Queensland Travel Survey datasets were used to develop this model. Four linear regression models were estimated to assess the effects of the GFC on time allocated to travel during a day: one for each of the three travel modes including public transport, active transport, less environmentally friendly transport; and an overall travel time model irrespective of mode. The results reveal that individuals were more likely to switch to public transport who lost their job or whose income reduced between 2007 and 2009. Individuals also made significantly fewer trips in 2008 and 2009 compared to 2007. Individuals spent significantly less time using less environmentally friendly transport but more time using public transport in 2009. Baby boomers switched to more environmentally friendly travel modes during the GFC.

The contributions of solar ultraviolet radiation exposure and other determinants to Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D concentrations in Australian adults : the AusD study

The Quantitative Assessment of Solar UV [ultraviolet] Exposure for Vitamin D Synthesis in Australian Adults (AusD) Study aimed to better define the relationship between sun exposure and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration. Cross-sectional data were collected between May 2009 and December 2010 from 1,002 participants aged 18-75 years in 4 Australian sites spanning 24° of latitude. Participants completed the following: 1) questionnaires on sun exposure, dietary vitamin D intake, and vitamin D supplementation; 2) 10 days of personal ultraviolet radiation dosimetry; 3) a sun exposure and physical activity diary; and 4) clinical measurements and blood collection for 25(OH)D determination. Our multiple regression model described 40% of the variance in 25(OH)D concentration; modifiable behavioral factors contributed 52% of the explained variance, and environmental and demographic or constitutional variables contributed 38% and 10%, respectively. The amount of skin exposed was the single strongest contributor to the explained variance (27%), followed by location (20%), season (17%), personal ultraviolet radiation exposure (8%), vitamin D supplementation (7%), body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)2) (4%), and physical activity (4%). Modifiable behavioral factors strongly influence serum 25(OH)D concentrations in Australian adults. In addition, latitude was a strong determinant of the relative contribution of different behavioral factors.

Parameter estimation of thrust models of uninhabited airborne systems

This paper presents a method for the estimation of thrust model parameters of uninhabited airborne systems using specific flight tests. Particular tests are proposed to simplify the estimation. The proposed estimation method is based on three steps. The first step uses a regression model in which the thrust is assumed constant. This allows us to obtain biased initial estimates of the aerodynamic coeficients of the surge model. In the second step, a robust nonlinear state estimator is implemented using the initial parameter estimates, and the model is augmented by considering the thrust as random walk. In the third step, the estimate of the thrust obtained by the observer is used to fit a polynomial model in terms of the propeller advanced ratio. We consider a numerical example based on Monte-Carlo simulations to quantify the sampling properties of the proposed estimator given realistic flight conditions.

Comparison of 3 accelerometer data reduction approaches, step counts, and 2 self-report measures for estimating physical activity in free-living adults

Background Accelerometers have become one of the most common methods of measuring physical activity (PA). Thus, validity of accelerometer data reduction approaches remains an important research area. Yet, few studies directly compare data reduction approaches and other PA measures in free-living samples. Objective To compare PA estimates provided by 3 accelerometer data reduction approaches, steps, and 2 self-reported estimates: Crouter's 2-regression model, Crouter's refined 2-regression model, the weighted cut-point method adopted in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; 2003-2004 and 2005-2006 cycles), steps, IPAQ, and 7-day PA recall. Methods A worksite sample (N = 87) completed online-surveys and wore ActiGraph GT1M accelerometers and pedometers (SW-200) during waking hours for 7 consecutive days. Daily time spent in sedentary, light, moderate, and vigorous intensity activity and percentage of participants meeting PA recommendations were calculated and compared. Results Crouter's 2-regression (161.8 +/- 52.3 minutes/day) and refined 2-regression (137.6 +/- 40.3 minutes/day) models provided significantly higher estimates of moderate and vigorous PA and proportions of those meeting PA recommendations (91% and 92%, respectively) as compared with the NHANES weighted cut-point method (39.5 +/- 20.2 minutes/day, 18%). Differences between other measures were also significant. Conclusions When comparing 3 accelerometer cut-point methods, steps, and self-report measures, estimates of PA participation vary substantially.

The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China

This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha—a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0–3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10–25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0–2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%–8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%–7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.

Benthic metabolism as an indicator of stream ecosystem health

We tested direct and indirect measures of benthic metabolism as indicators of stream ecosystem health across a known agricultural land-use disturbance gradient in southeast Queensland, Australia. Gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (R24) in benthic chambers in cobble and sediment habitats, algal biomass (as chlorophyll a) from cobbles and sediment cores, algal biomass accrual on artificial substrates and stable carbon isotope ratios of aquatic plants and benthic sediments were measured at 53 stream sites, ranging from undisturbed subtropical rainforest to catchments where improved pasture and intensive cropping are major land-uses. Rates of benthic GPP and R24 varied by more than two orders of magnitude across the study gradient. Generalised linear regression modelling explained 80% or more of the variation in these two indicators when sediment and cobble substrate dominated sites were considered separately, and both catchment and reach scale descriptors of the disturbance gradient were important in explaining this variation. Model fits were poor for net daily benthic metabolism (NDM) and production to respiration ratio (P/R). Algal biomass accrual on artificial substrate and stable carbon isotope ratios of aquatic plants and benthic sediment were the best of the indirect indicators, with regression model R2 values of 50% or greater. Model fits were poor for algal biomass on natural substrates for cobble sites and all sites. None of these indirect measures of benthic metabolism was a good surrogate for measured GPP. Direct measures of benthic metabolism, GPP and R24, and several indirect measures were good indicators of stream ecosystem health and are recommended in assessing process-related responses to riparian and catchment land use change and the success of ecosystem rehabilitation actions.

The association between social support and levels of psychological distress in pregnant women in Australia

The purpose of this study was to explore associations between forms of social support and levels of psychological distress during pregnancy. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of 2,743 pregnant women from south-east Queensland, Australia, was conducted utilising data collected between 2007-2011 as part of the Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL) project, Griffith University. Psychological distress was measured using the Kessler 6; social support was measured using the following four factors: living with a partner, living with parents or in-laws, self-perceived social network, and area satisfaction. Data were analysed using an ordered logistic regression model controlling for a range of socio-demographic factors. Results: There was an inverse association between self-perceived strength of social networks and levels of psychological distress (OR = 0.77; 95%CI: 0.70, 0.85) and between area satisfaction and levels of psychological distress (OR = 0.77; 95%CI: 0.69, 0.87). There was a direct association between living with parents or in-laws and levels of psychological distress (OR = 1.50; 95%CI: 1.16, 1.96). There was no statistically significant association between living with a partner and the level of psychological distress of the pregnant woman after accounting for household income. Conclusion: Living with parents or in-laws is a strong marker for psychological distress. Strategies aiming to build social support networks for women during pregnancy have the potential to provide a significant benefit. Policies promoting stable family relationships and networks through community development could also be effective in promoting the welfare of pregnant women.

Temperature variability and childhood pneumonia : an ecological study

Background Few data on the relationship between temperature variability and childhood pneumonia are available. This study attempted to fill this knowledge gap. Methods A quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to quantify the impacts of diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between two neighbouring days (TCN) on emergency department visits (EDVs) for childhood pneumonia in Brisbane, from 2001 to 2010, after controlling for possible confounders. Results An adverse impact of TCN on EDVs for childhood pneumonia was observed, and the magnitude of this impact increased from the first five years (2001–2005) to the second five years (2006–2010). Children aged 5–14 years, female children and Indigenous children were particularly vulnerable to TCN impact. However, there was no significant association between DTR and EDVs for childhood pneumonia. Conclusions As climate change progresses, the days with unstable weather pattern are likely to increase. Parents and caregivers of children should be aware of the high risk of pneumonia posed by big TCN and take precautionary measures to protect children, especially those with a history of respiratory diseases, from climate impacts.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Learned stochastic mobility prediction for planning with control uncertainty on unstructured terrain

Motion planning for planetary rovers must consider control uncertainty in order to maintain the safety of the platform during navigation. Modelling such control uncertainty is difficult due to the complex interaction between the platform and its environment. In this paper, we propose a motion planning approach whereby the outcome of control actions is learned from experience and represented statistically using a Gaussian process regression model. This mobility prediction model is trained using sample executions of motion primitives on representative terrain, and predicts the future outcome of control actions on similar terrain. Using Gaussian process regression allows us to exploit its inherent measure of prediction uncertainty in planning. We integrate mobility prediction into a Markov decision process framework and use dynamic programming to construct a control policy for navigation to a goal region in a terrain map built using an on-board depth sensor. We consider both rigid terrain, consisting of uneven ground, small rocks, and non-traversable rocks, and also deformable terrain. We introduce two methods for training the mobility prediction model from either proprioceptive or exteroceptive observations, and report results from nearly 300 experimental trials using a planetary rover platform in a Mars-analogue environment. Our results validate the approach and demonstrate the value of planning under uncertainty for safe and reliable navigation.

Assessment of the effects of maternal exposure to heatwave on birth outcomes in Brisbane, Australia

Even though heatwave events have become more frequent and intense in most regions around the world, little is known about the impact of heatwave on birth outcomes. This thesis uses a population-based study design to investigate the relationship between maternal heatwave exposure and adverse birth outcomes in Brisbane, Australia. This study found that heatwave exposure at any stage of pregnancy can be harmful to fetal growth, and further increase the risk of adverse birth outcomes. Both short- and long-term effects of heatwave on adverse birth outcomes were found. The findings in this thesis may have significant public health implications.