On the commonly accepted assumptions regarding observed motor vehicle crash counts at transport system locations

Readily accepted knowledge regarding crash causation is consistently omitted from efforts to model and subsequently understand motor vehicle crash occurrence and their contributing factors. For instance, distracted and impaired driving accounts for a significant proportion of crash occurrence, yet is rarely modeled explicitly. In addition, spatially allocated influences such as local law enforcement efforts, proximity to bars and schools, and roadside chronic distractions (advertising, pedestrians, etc.) play a role in contributing to crash occurrence and yet are routinely absent from crash models. By and large, these well-established omitted effects are simply assumed to contribute to model error, with predominant focus on modeling the engineering and operational effects of transportation facilities (e.g. AADT, number of lanes, speed limits, width of lanes, etc.) The typical analytical approach—with a variety of statistical enhancements—has been to model crashes that occur at system locations as negative binomial (NB) distributed events that arise from a singular, underlying crash generating process. These models and their statistical kin dominate the literature; however, it is argued in this paper that these models fail to capture the underlying complexity of motor vehicle crash causes, and thus thwart deeper insights regarding crash causation and prevention. This paper first describes hypothetical scenarios that collectively illustrate why current models mislead highway safety researchers and engineers. It is argued that current model shortcomings are significant, and will lead to poor decision-making. Exploiting our current state of knowledge of crash causation, crash counts are postulated to arise from three processes: observed network features, unobserved spatial effects, and ‘apparent’ random influences that reflect largely behavioral influences of drivers. It is argued; furthermore, that these three processes in theory can be modeled separately to gain deeper insight into crash causes, and that the model represents a more realistic depiction of reality than the state of practice NB regression. An admittedly imperfect empirical model that mixes three independent crash occurrence processes is shown to outperform the classical NB model. The questioning of current modeling assumptions and implications of the latent mixture model to current practice are the most important contributions of this paper, with an initial but rather vulnerable attempt to model the latent mixtures as a secondary contribution.

Systematic variation of the severity of motor vehicle accident-related traumatic brain injury vignettes produces different post-concussion symptom reports

This study investigated the specificity of the post-concussion syndrome (PCS) expectation-as-etiology hypothesis. Undergraduate students (n = 551) were randomly allocated to one of three vignette conditions. Vignettes depicted either a very mild (VMI), mild (MI), or moderate-to-severe (MSI) motor vehicle-related traumatic brain injury (TBI). Participants reported the PCS and PTSD symptoms that they imagined the depicted injury would produce. Secondary outcomes (knowledge of mild TBI, and the perceived undesirability of TBI) were also assessed. After data screening, the distribution of participants by condition was: VMI (n = 100), MI (n = 96), and MSI (n = 71). There was a significant effect of condition on PCS symptomatology, F(2, 264) = 16.55, p < .001. Significantly greater PCS symptomatology was expected in the MSI condition compared to the other conditions (MSI > VMI; medium effect, r = .33; MSI > MI; small-to-medium effect, r = .22). The same pattern of group differences was found for PTSD symptoms, F(2, 264) = 17.12, p < .001. Knowledge of mild TBI was not related to differences in expected PCS symptoms by condition; and the perceived undesirability of TBI was only associated with reported PCS symptomatology in the MSI condition. Systematic variation in the severity of a depicted TBI produces different PCS and PTSD symptom expectations. Even a very mild TBI vignette can elicit expectations of PCS symptoms.

Bayesian algorithms with applications

Advances in algorithms for approximate sampling from a multivariable target function have led to solutions to challenging statistical inference problems that would otherwise not be considered by the applied scientist. Such sampling algorithms are particularly relevant to Bayesian statistics, since the target function is the posterior distribution of the unobservables given the observables. In this thesis we develop, adapt and apply Bayesian algorithms, whilst addressing substantive applied problems in biology and medicine as well as other applications. For an increasing number of high-impact research problems, the primary models of interest are often sufficiently complex that the likelihood function is computationally intractable. Rather than discard these models in favour of inferior alternatives, a class of Bayesian "likelihoodfree" techniques (often termed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)) has emerged in the last few years, which avoids direct likelihood computation through repeated sampling of data from the model and comparing observed and simulated summary statistics. In Part I of this thesis we utilise sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methodology to develop new algorithms for ABC that are more efficient in terms of the number of model simulations required and are almost black-box since very little algorithmic tuning is required. In addition, we address the issue of deriving appropriate summary statistics to use within ABC via a goodness-of-fit statistic and indirect inference. Another important problem in statistics is the design of experiments. That is, how one should select the values of the controllable variables in order to achieve some design goal. The presences of parameter and/or model uncertainty are computational obstacles when designing experiments but can lead to inefficient designs if not accounted for correctly. The Bayesian framework accommodates such uncertainties in a coherent way. If the amount of uncertainty is substantial, it can be of interest to perform adaptive designs in order to accrue information to make better decisions about future design points. This is of particular interest if the data can be collected sequentially. In a sense, the current posterior distribution becomes the new prior distribution for the next design decision. Part II of this thesis creates new algorithms for Bayesian sequential design to accommodate parameter and model uncertainty using SMC. The algorithms are substantially faster than previous approaches allowing the simulation properties of various design utilities to be investigated in a more timely manner. Furthermore the approach offers convenient estimation of Bayesian utilities and other quantities that are particularly relevant in the presence of model uncertainty. Finally, Part III of this thesis tackles a substantive medical problem. A neurological disorder known as motor neuron disease (MND) progressively causes motor neurons to no longer have the ability to innervate the muscle fibres, causing the muscles to eventually waste away. When this occurs the motor unit effectively ‘dies’. There is no cure for MND, and fatality often results from a lack of muscle strength to breathe. The prognosis for many forms of MND (particularly amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)) is particularly poor, with patients usually only surviving a small number of years after the initial onset of disease. Measuring the progress of diseases of the motor units, such as ALS, is a challenge for clinical neurologists. Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is an attempt to directly assess underlying motor unit loss rather than indirect techniques such as muscle strength assessment, which generally is unable to detect progressions due to the body’s natural attempts at compensation. Part III of this thesis builds upon a previous Bayesian technique, which develops a sophisticated statistical model that takes into account physiological information about motor unit activation and various sources of uncertainties. More specifically, we develop a more reliable MUNE method by applying marginalisation over latent variables in order to improve the performance of a previously developed reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. We make other subtle changes to the model and algorithm to improve the robustness of the approach.

Does legal heritage affect obesity? The channel of motor vehicle dependence

We find a robust relationship between motor vehicle ownership, its interaction with legal heritage and obesity in OECD countries. Our estimates indicate that an increase of 100 motor vehicles per thousand residents is associated with about a 6% point increase in obesity in common law countries, whereas it has a much smaller or insignificant impact in civil law countries. These relations hold whether we examine trend data and simple correlations, or conduct cross-section or panel data regression analysis. Our results suggest that obesity rises with motor vehicle ownership in countries following a common law tradition where individual liberty is encouraged, whereas the link is small or statistically non-existent in countries with a civil law background where the rights of the individual tend to be circumscribed by the power of the state.

Power system sensitivity analysis considering induction motor loads

Power system operation and planning are facing increasing uncertainties especially with the deregulation process and increasing demand for power. Probabilistic power system stability assessment and probabilistic power system planning have been identified by EPRI as one of the important trends in power system operations and planning. Probabilistic small signal stability assessment studies the impact of system parameter uncertainties on system small disturbance stability characteristics. Researches in this area have covered many uncertainties factors such as controller parameter uncertainties and generation uncertainties. One of the most important factors in power system stability assessment is load dynamics. In this paper, composite load model is used to consider the uncertainties from load parameter uncertainties impact on system small signal stability characteristics. The results provide useful insight into the significant stability impact brought to the system by load dynamics. They can be used to help system operators in system operation and planning analysis.

Evaluation of plastic deformation ability of Cu/Ni/W metallic multilayers

Plastic deformation behavior of Cu/Ni/Wmetallicmultilayers with individual layer thickness ranging from 5 nm to 300 nm is investigated by nanoindentation testing. The experimental results reveal that the composite still exhibits indentation-induced plastic deformation instability and the loss of strain hardening ability at the nanometer scale even if the composite contains two kinds of layer interfaces (face centered cubic(FCC)/FCC and FCC/ body centered cubic) simultaneously. Plastic deformation behavior of the nanolayered material was evaluated and analyzed.

Principles of motor learning in ecological dynamics : a comment on functions of learning and the acquisition of motor skills (with reference to sport)

This paper provides a commentary on the contribution by Dr Chow who questioned whether the functions of learning are general across all categories of tasks or whether there are some task-particular aspects to the functions of learning in relation to task type. Specifically, they queried whether principles and practice for the acquisition of sport skills are different than what they are for musical, industrial, military and human factors skills. In this commentary we argue that ecological dynamics contains general principles of motor learning that can be instantiated in specific performance contexts to underpin learning design. In this proposal, we highlight the importance of conducting skill acquisition research in sport, rather than relying on empirical outcomes of research from a variety of different performance contexts. Here we discuss how task constraints of different performance contexts (sport, industry, military, music) provide different specific information sources that individuals use to couple their actions when performing and acquiring skills. We conclude by suggesting that his relationship between performance task constraints and learning processes might help explain the traditional emphasis on performance curves and performance outcomes to infer motor learning.

Binocular rivalry and visuospatial ability in individuals with schizophrenia

Visual abnormalities, both at the sensory input and the higher interpretive levels, have been associated with many of the symptoms of schizophrenia. Individuals with schizophrenia typically experience distortions of sensory perception, resulting in perceptual hallucinations and delusions that are related to the observed visual deficits. Disorganised speech, thinking and behaviour are commonly experienced by sufferers of the disorder, and have also been attributed to perceptual disturbances associated with anomalies in visual processing. Compounding these issues are marked deficits in cognitive functioning that are observed in approximately 80% of those with schizophrenia. Cognitive impairments associated with schizophrenia include: difficulty with concentration and memory (i.e. working, visual and verbal), an impaired ability to process complex information, response inhibition and deficits in speed of processing, visual and verbal learning. Deficits in sustained attention or vigilance, poor executive functioning such as poor reasoning, problem solving, and social cognition, are all influenced by impaired visual processing. These symptoms impact on the internal perceptual world of those with schizophrenia, and hamper their ability to navigate their external environment. Visual processing abnormalities in schizophrenia are likely to worsen personal, social and occupational functioning. Binocular rivalry provides a unique opportunity to investigate the processes involved in visual awareness and visual perception. Binocular rivalry is the alternation of perceptual images that occurs when conflicting visual stimuli are presented to each eye in the same retinal location. The observer perceives the opposing images in an alternating fashion, despite the sensory input to each eye remaining constant. Binocular rivalry tasks have been developed to investigate specific parts of the visual system. The research presented in this Thesis provides an explorative investigation into binocular rivalry in schizophrenia, using the method of Pettigrew and Miller (1998) and comparing individuals with schizophrenia to healthy controls. This method allows manipulations to the spatial and temporal frequency, luminance contrast and chromaticity of the visual stimuli. Manipulations to the rival stimuli affect the rate of binocular rivalry alternations and the time spent perceiving each image (dominance duration). Binocular rivalry rate and dominance durations provide useful measures to investigate aspects of visual neural processing that lead to the perceptual disturbances and cognitive dysfunction attributed to schizophrenia. However, despite this promise the binocular rivalry phenomenon has not been extensively explored in schizophrenia to date. Following a review of the literature, the research in this Thesis examined individual variation in binocular rivalry. The initial study (Chapter 2) explored the effect of systematically altering the properties of the stimuli (i.e. spatial and temporal frequency, luminance contrast and chromaticity) on binocular rivalry rate and dominance durations in healthy individuals (n=20). The findings showed that altering the stimuli with respect to temporal frequency and luminance contrast significantly affected rate. This is significant as processing of temporal frequency and luminance contrast have consistently been demonstrated to be abnormal in schizophrenia. The current research then explored binocular rivalry in schizophrenia. The primary research question was, "Are binocular rivalry rates and dominance durations recorded in participants with schizophrenia different to those of the controls?" In this second study binocular rivalry data that were collected using low- and highstrength binocular rivalry were compared to alternations recorded during a monocular rivalry task, the Necker Cube task to replicate and advance the work of Miller et al., (2003). Participants with schizophrenia (n=20) recorded fewer alternations (i.e. slower alternation rates) than control participants (n=20) on both binocular rivalry tasks, however no difference was observed between the groups on the Necker cube task. Magnocellular and parvocellular visual pathways, thought to be abnormal in schizophrenia, were also investigated in binocular rivalry. The binocular rivalry stimuli used in this third study (Chapter 4) were altered to bias the task for one of these two pathways. Participants with schizophrenia recorded slower binocular rivalry rates than controls in both binocular rivalry tasks. Using a ‘within subject design’, binocular rivalry data were compared to data collected from a backwardmasking task widely accepted to bias both these pathways. Based on these data, a model of binocular rivalry, based on the magnocellular and parvocellular pathways that contribute to the dorsal and ventral visual streams, was developed. Binocular rivalry rates were compared with performance on the Benton’s Judgment of Line Orientation task, in individuals with schizophrenia compared to healthy controls (Chapter 5). The Benton’s Judgment of Line Orientation task is widely accepted to be processed within the right cerebral hemisphere, making it an appropriate task to investigate the role of the cerebral hemispheres in binocular rivalry, and to investigate the inter-hemispheric switching hypothesis of binocular rivalry proposed by Pettigrew and Miller (1998, 2003). The data were suggestive of intra-hemispheric rather than an inter-hemispheric visual processing in binocular rivalry. Neurotransmitter involvement in binocular rivalry, backward masking and Judgment of Line Orientation in schizophrenia were investigated using a genetic indicator of dopamine receptor distribution and functioning; the presence of the Taq1 allele of the dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) receptor gene. This final study (Chapter 6) explored whether the presence of the Taq1 allele of the DRD2 receptor gene, and thus, by inference the distribution of dopamine receptors and dopamine function, accounted for the large individual variation in binocular rivalry. The presence of the Taq1 allele was associated with slower binocular rivalry rates or poorer performance in the backward masking and Judgment of Line Orientation tasks seen in the group with schizophrenia. This Thesis has contributed to what is known about binocular rivalry in schizophrenia. Consistently slower binocular rivalry rates were observed in participants with schizophrenia, indicating abnormally-slow visual processing in this group. These data support previous studies reporting visual processing abnormalities in schizophrenia and suggest that a slow binocular rivalry rate is not a feature specific to bipolar disorder, but may be a feature of disorders with psychotic features generally. The contributions of the magnocellular or dorsal pathways and parvocellular or ventral pathways to binocular rivalry, and therefore to perceptual awareness, were investigated. The data presented supported the view that the magnocellular system initiates perceptual awareness of an image and the parvocellular system maintains the perception of the image, making it available to higher level processing occurring within the cortical hemispheres. Abnormal magnocellular and parvocellular processing may both contribute to perceptual disturbances that ultimately contribute to the cognitive dysfunction associated with schizophrenia. An alternative model of binocular rivalry based on these observations was proposed.

The effect of exercise repetition on the frequency characteristics of motor output force : Implications for Achilles tendinopathy rehabilitation

Objectives: To investigate the frequency characteristics of the ground reaction force (GRF) recorded throughout the eccentric Achilles tendon rehabilitation programme described by Alfredson. Design: Controlled laboratory study, longitudinal. Methods: Nine healthy adult males performed six sets (15 repetitions per set) of eccentric ankle exercise. Ground reaction force was recorded throughout the exercise protocol. For each exercise repetition the frequency power spectrum of the resultant ground reaction force was calculated and normalised to total power. The magnitude of peak relative power within the 8-12 Hz bandwidth and the frequency at which this peak occurred was determined. Results: The magnitude of peak relative power within the 8-12 Hz bandwidth increased with each successive exercise set and following the 4th set (60 repetitions) of exercise the frequency at which peak relative power occurred shifted from 9 to 10 Hz. Conclusions: The increase in magnitude and frequency of ground reaction force vibrations with an increasing number of exercise repetitions is likely connected to changes in muscle activation with fatigue and tendon conditioning. This research illustrates the potential for the number of exercise repetitions performed to influence the tendons' mechanical environment, with implications for tendon remodelling and the clinical efficacy of eccentric rehabilitation programmes for Achilles tendinopathy.

Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 - request for information

In Angus v Conelius [2007] QCA 190 the Queensland Court of Appeal concluded that the obligations under the Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 (Qld), and in particular s 45 of the Act (duty of claimant to cooperate with insurer), continue beyond the commencement of court proceedings

Pre-service Physical Education teachers and concerns regarding their ability to successfully facilitate school-based physical activity promotion strategies

Regular physical activity (PA) in youth has numerous immediate and long-term health benefits. With several studies indicating low levels of youth PA globally, schools settings have become increasingly critical settings for youth health promotion strategies. The role of physical education (PE) teachers has long been considered central to the facilitation of such strategies. However, PE teachers have a selfreported lack of knowledge, skills, understanding, and competence to successfully implement these strategies. Tertiary education programs are fundamental to adequately preparing, and shaping the attitudes and philosophies of future PE teachers towards their involvement within these programs. The aim of this investigation was to explore the beliefs and perceptions of future secondary school PE teachers, regarding their potential roles in future school-based programs designed to promote student PA. Fifty-seven (21 males and 36 females) pre-service PE teachers completed a series of open-ended survey questions concerning their perceptions towards participating in school-based PA promotion programs both as preservice during practicum, and prospectively as practising teachers. Responses were analysed thematically. Participants responded both positively and enthusiastically to both questions. Concerns regarding time, and the intention or expectation to participate in such programs were also key themes for pre-service and practicing teacher participation respectively. Critically in this study, participants did not identify any limitations which may impact upon their ability to successfully promote youth PA in school settings. This may indicate that participants have misconceptions regarding their ability to fulfil this role, or conversely, the deficiency of current PE teachers regarding school-based PA promotion has been recognised by the tertiary institution, and addressed to adequately prepare its students. School-based PA promotion is an integral element of pre-service PE teacher education, and ongoing professional development of practicing PE teachers. This trend is expected to continue in the future, in order to address ongoing public health concerns.

The ability of YSR DSM-oriented depression scales to predict DSM-IV depression in young adults : a longitudinal study

Background The Achenbach child behaviour checklist (CBCL/YSR) is a widely used screening tool for affective problems. Several studies report good association between the checklists and psychiatric diagnoses; although with varying degrees of agreement. Most are cross-sectional studies involving adolescents referred to mental health services. This paper aims to evaluate the performance of the youth self report (YSR) empirical and DSM-oriented internalising scales in predicting later depressive disorders in young adults. Methods Sample was 2431 young adults from an Australian birth cohort study. The strength of association between the empirical and DSM-oriented scales assessed at 14 and 21 years and structured-interview derived depression in young adulthood (18 to 22 years) were tested using odds ratios, ROC analyses and related diagnostic efficiency tests (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values). Results Adolescents with internalising symptoms were twice (OR 2.3, 95%CI 1.7 to 3.1) as likely to be diagnosed with DSM-IV depression by age 21. Use of DSM-oriented depressive scales did not improve the concordance between the internalising behaviour and DSM-IV diagnosed depression at age 14 (ORs ranged from 1.9 to 2.5). Limitations Some loss to follow-up over the 7-year gap between the two waves of follow-up. Conclusion DSM-oriented scales perform no better than the standard internalising or anxious/depressed scales in identifying young adults with later DSM-IV depressive disorder.

Mixing and dispersion of pollutants emitted from an outboard motor

This paper quantifies the mixing and dispersion from an outboard motor by field experiments in a small subtropical waterway. Organic dye was used as a surrogate for exhaust emissions and was mixed with uncontaminated creek water before being dispersed into the creek. Dye concentrations were measured with an array of concentration probes stationed in the creek. The data were then processed and fitted with a power law function. The corresponding dispersion constants agreed well with the literature. However, the amplitude was lower than the IMO equation but higher than the correlation from laboratory tests. Results for dye concentration intermittency (presence of dye) are presented for the first time from such field measurements and show significant mixing in-homogeneity.