Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Current treatment of Helicobacter pylori infection and peptic ulcer disease

Since the initial report by Warren and Marshall in 1984, Helicobacter pylori has assumed an increasingly important role in the pathogenesis of peptic ulcer disease and gastric carcinoma in all ages. A recent National Institutes of Health Consensus Development conference acknowledges the relationship between H. pylori infection and peptic ulcer disease and recommends that the medical community treat H. pylori infection in all patients with Helicobacter pylori and peptic ulcer. Although the same organism, the response to Helicobacter pylori infection in childhood differs somewhat from that seen in adults. The paediatric patient mounts a different inflammatory response, has different macroscopic appearances and has a markedly diminished peptic ulcer disease frequency compared with their adult counterparts. The appearances of antral nodularity appear to be characteristic of Helicobacter pylori infections. The appearances, however, are unrelated to symptoms and the underlying cause for this nodularity remains obscure. Younger children with peptic ulcer diseases are more likely to be Helicobacter pylori negative. This may suggest an increased susceptibility to gastric acid or possibly a very transient Helicobacter pylori infection rather than the well described lifelong infection without treatment. It is well known that the epidemiology of Helicobacter pylori would suggest that the incidence of infection increases with age. There is also geographical variations with the incidence being higher in countries of a third world background. These epidemiological observations fly in the face of all other infections where the major period of acquisition is in childhood. There has been recent evidence to suggest that in fact the incidence in childhood is decreasing in developed countries which could support the observation that there is a decreasing positive serology with successive decades in some countries. It is felt that the most likely mode of transmission of Helicobacter pylori is faecal to oral or oral to oral route. These are similar modes of transmission to Hepatitis A infections. It is obvious that most infections in childhood remain asymptomatic. It is also clear that there is no relationship between chronic recurrent abdominal pain of childhood syndrome and the presence of Helicobacter pylori infections. It remains to be seen as to who should be treated, what with and when. All of these issues will be discussed in the paper.

Analysis of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 drug resistance in children receiving nucleoside analogue reverse-transcriptase inhibitors plus nevirapine, nelfinavir, or ritonavir (Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group 377)

In Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group 377, antiretroviral therapy-experienced children were randomized to 4 treatment arms that included different combinations of stavudine, lamivudine (3TC), nevirapine (Nvp), nelfinavir (Nfv), and ritonavir (Rtv). Previous treatment with zidovudine (Zdv), didanosine (ddI), or zalcitabine (ddC) was acceptable. Drug resistance ((R)) mutations were assessed before study treatment (baseline) and at virologic failure. Zdv(R), ddI(R), and ddC(R) mutations were detected frequently at baseline but were not associated with virologic failure. Children with drug resistance mutations at baseline had greater reductions in virus load over time than did children who did not. Nvp(R) and 3TC(R) mutations were detected frequently at virologic failure, and Nvp(R) mutations were more common among children receiving 3-drug versus 4-drug Nvp-containing regimens. Children who were maintained on their study regimen after virologic failure accumulated additional Nvp(R) and 3TC(R) mutations plus Rtv(R) and Nfv(R) mutations. However, Rtv(R) and Nfv(R) mutations were detected at unexpectedly low rates.

Disease mapping using Bayesian hierarchical models

description and analysis of geographically indexed health data with respect to demographic, environmental, behavioural, socioeconomic, genetic, and infectious risk factors (Elliott andWartenberg 2004). Disease maps can be useful for estimating relative risk; ecological analyses, incorporating area and/or individual-level covariates; or cluster analyses (Lawson 2009). As aggregated data are often more readily available, one common method of mapping disease is to aggregate the counts of disease at some geographical areal level, and present them as choropleth maps (Devesa et al. 1999; Population Health Division 2006). Therefore, this chapter will focus exclusively on methods appropriate for areal data...

Induction of partial immunity in both males and females is sufficient to protect females against sexual transmission of Chlamydia

Sexually transmitted Chlamydia trachomatis causes infertility, and because almost 90% of infections are asymptomatic, a vaccine is required for its eradication. Mathematical modeling studies have indicated that a vaccine eliciting partial protection (non-sterilizing) may prevent Chlamydia infection transmission, if administered to both sexes before an infection. However, reducing chlamydial inoculum transmitted by males and increasing infection resistance in females through vaccination to elicit sterilizing immunity has yet to be investigated experimentally. Here we show that a partially protective vaccine (chlamydial major outer membrane protein (MOMP) and ISCOMATRIX (IMX) provided sterilizing immunity against sexual transmission between immunized mice. Immunizing male or female mice before an infection reduced chlamydial burden and disease development, but did not prevent infection. However, infection and inflammatory disease responsible for infertility were absent in 100% of immunized female mice challenged intravaginally with ejaculate collected from infected immunized males. In contrast to the sterilizing immunity generated following recovery from a previous chlamydial infection, protective immunity conferred by MOMP/IMX occurred independent of resident memory T cells. Our results demonstrate that vaccination of males or females can further protect the opposing sex, whereas vaccination of both sexes can synergize to elicit sterilizing immunity against Chlamydia sexual transmission.

Risk assessment for airborne infectious diseases between natural ventilation and split-system air conditioner in a university classroom

Indoor air quality is a critical factor in the classroom due to high people concentration in a unique space. Indoor air pollutant might increase the chance of both long and short-term health problems among students and staff, reduce the productivity of teachers and degrade the student’s learning environment and comfort. Adequate air distribution strategies may reduce risk of infection in classroom. So, the purpose of air distribution systems in a classroom is not only to maximize conditions for thermal comfort, but also to remove indoor contaminants. Natural ventilation has the potential to play a significant role in achieving improvements in IAQ. The present study compares the risk of airborne infection between Natural Ventilation (opening windows and doors) and a Split-System Air Conditioner in a university classroom. The Wells-Riley model was used to predict the risk of indoor airborne transmission of infectious diseases such as influenza, measles and tuberculosis. For each case, the air exchange rate was measured using a CO2 tracer gas technique. It was found that opening windows and doors provided an air exchange rate of 2.3 air changes/hour (ACH), while with the Split System it was 0.6 ACH. The risk of airborne infection ranged between 4.24 to 30.86 % when using the Natural Ventilation and between 8.99 to 43.19% when using the Split System. The difference of airborne infection risk between the Split System and the Natural Ventilation ranged from 47 to 56%. Opening windows and doors maximize Natural Ventilation so that the risk of airborne contagion is much lower than with Split System.

Disease control and management

Globally, the main contributors to morbidity and mortality are chronic conditions, including cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Chronic disease is costly and partially avoidable, with around 60% of deaths and nearly 50% of the global disease burden attributable to these conditions. By 2020, chronic illnesses will likely be the leading cause of disability worldwide. Existing healthcare systems that focus on acute episodic health conditions, both national and international, cannot address the worldwide transition to chronic illness; nor are they appropriate for the ongoing care and management of those already dealing with chronic diseases. As such, chronic disease management requires integrated approaches that incorporate interventions targeted at both individuals and populations, and emphasise the shared risk factors of different conditions. International and Australian strategic planning documents articulate similar elements to manage chronic disease, including the need for aligning sectoral policies for health, forming partnerships, and engaging communities in decision-making. Infectious diseases are also a common and significant contributor to ill health throughout the world. In many countries, this impact has been minimised by the combined efforts of preventative health measures and improved treatment methods. However, in low-income countries, infectious diseases remain the dominant cause of death and disability. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that infectious diseases (including respiratory infections) still account for around 23% (or around 14 million) of all deaths each year, and result in over 4.6 billion episodes of diarrhoeal disease and 243 million cases of malaria each year (Lozano et al. 2012, WHO 2009). In addition to the high level of mortality, infectious diseases disable many hundreds of millions of people each year, mainly in developing countries, with the global burden of disease from infectious diseases estimated to be around 300 million DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) (WHO 2012). The aim of this chapter is to outline the impact that infectious diseases and chronic diseases have on the health of the community, describe the public health strategies used to reduce the burden of those diseases, and discuss the historic and emerging disease risks to public health. This chapter examines the comprehensive approaches implemented to prevent both chronic and infectious diseases, and to manage and care for communities with these conditions.

HealthMap: A cluster randomised trial of interactive health plans and self-management support to prevent coronary heart disease in people with HIV

Background The leading causes of morbidity and mortality for people in high-income countries living with HIV are now non-AIDS malignancies, cardiovascular disease and other non-communicable diseases associated with ageing. This protocol describes the trial of HealthMap, a model of care for people with HIV (PWHIV) that includes use of an interactive shared health record and self-management support. The aims of the HealthMap trial are to evaluate engagement of PWHIV and healthcare providers with the model, and its effectiveness for reducing coronary heart disease risk, enhancing self-management, and improving mental health and quality of life of PWHIV. Methods/Design The study is a two-arm cluster randomised trial involving HIV clinical sites in several states in Australia. Doctors will be randomised to the HealthMap model (immediate arm) or to proceed with usual care (deferred arm). People with HIV whose doctors are randomised to the immediate arm receive 1) new opportunities to discuss their health status and goals with their HIV doctor using a HealthMap shared health record; 2) access to their own health record from home; 3) access to health coaching delivered by telephone and online; and 4) access to a peer moderated online group chat programme. Data will be collected from participating PWHIV (n = 710) at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months and from participating doctors (n = 60) at baseline and 12 months. The control arm will be offered the HealthMap intervention at the end of the trial. The primary study outcomes, measured at 12 months, are 1) 10-year risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction or coronary heart disease death as estimated by a Framingham Heart Study risk equation; and 2) Positive and Active Engagement in Life Scale from the Health Education Impact Questionnaire (heiQ). Discussion The study will determine the viability and utility of a novel technology-supported model of care for maintaining the health and wellbeing of people with HIV. If shown to be effective, the HealthMap model may provide a generalisable, scalable and sustainable system for supporting the care needs of people with HIV, addressing issues of equity of access. Trial registration Universal Trial Number (UTN) U111111506489; ClinicalTrial.gov Id NCT02178930 submitted 29 June 2014