Modeling electricity price events as point processes

Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

SERS based detection of barcoded gold nanoparticle assemblies from within animal tissue

We have explored the potential of deep Raman spectroscopy, specifically surface enhanced spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SESORS), for non-invasive detection from within animal tissue, by employing SERS-barcoded nanoparticle (NP) assemblies as the diagnostic agent. This concept has been experimentally verified in a clinic-relevant backscattered Raman system with an excitation line of 785 nm under ex vivo conditions. We have shown that our SORS system, with a fixed offset of 2-3 mm, offered sensitive probing of injected QTH-barcoded NP assemblies through animal tissue containing both protein and lipid. In comparison to that of non-aggregated SERS-barcoded gold NPs, we have demonstrated that the tailored SERS-barcoded aggregated NP assemblies have significantly higher detection sensitivity. We report that these NP assemblies can be readily detected at depths of 7-8 mm from within animal proteinaceous tissue with high signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio. In addition they could also be detected from beneath 1-2 mm of animal tissue with high lipid content, which generally poses a challenge due to high absorption of lipids in the near-infrared region. We have also shown that the signal intensity and S/N ratio at a particular depth is a function of the SERS tag concentration used and that our SORS system has a QTH detection limit of 10-6 M. Higher detection depths may possibly be obtained with optimization of the NP assemblies, along with improvements in the instrumentation. Such NP assemblies offer prospects for in vivo, non-invasive detection of tumours along with scope for incorporation of drugs and their targeted and controlled release at tumour sites. These diagnostic agents combined with drug delivery systems could serve as a “theranostic agent”, an integration of diagnostics and therapeutics into a single platform.

School libraries, teacher-librarians and literacy at Gold Coast schools : research findings

This paper reports research about school libraries, teacher-librarians and their contribution to literacy development. It presents an evidenced based snapshot, from the principals’ perspective, of 27 school libraries in the Gold Coast area of Australia. These new Australian findings show: • an evidenced based snapshot of school libraries and teacher-librarians, from the principals’ perspective • indications that school NAPLAN scores for reading and writing were generally higher when (a) student to library staff ratios were lower (i.e. better) and (b) the school had a teacher-librarian. The research responds to the Australian Government inquiry into school libraries and teacher-librarians (2010-11) which identified an urgent need for current data about provision and staffing of school libraries and their influence on student literacy and learning. In light of the National plan for school improvement (Australian Government, 2013), the findings are of potential interest to education authorities, school leadership teams, teacher-librarians, teachers and researchers. They offer evidence to inform policy development, strategic planning and advocacy about school libraries and teacher-librarians in supporting the reading, literacy and learning needs of 21st century learners.

Impacts of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies on electricity market operations

The Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) concept is based on the newly developed and marketed technologies of hybrid petrol-electric vehicles, most notably represented by the Toyota Prius, in combination with significant structural changes to the world's energy economy, and the growing strain on electricity networks. The work described in this presentation focuses on the market and economic impacts of grid connected vehicles. We investigate price reduction effects and transmission system expansion cost reduction. We modelled a large numbers of plug-in-hybrid vehicle batteries by aggregating them into a virtual pumped-storage power station at the Australian national electricity market's (NEM) region level. The virtual power station concept models a centralised control for dispatching (operating) the aggregated electricity supply/demand capabilities of a large number of vehicles and their batteries. The actual level of output could be controlled by human or automated agents to either charge or discharge from/into the power grid. As previously mentioned the impacts of widespread deployments of this technology are likely to be economic, environmental and physical.

Self excitation in equity indices

A "self-exciting" market is one in which the probability of observing a crash increases in response to the occurrence of a crash. It essentially describes cases where the initial crash serves to weaken the system to some extent, making subsequent crashes more likely. This thesis investigates if equity markets possess this property. A self-exciting extension of the well-known jump-based Bates (1996) model is used as the workhorse model for this thesis, and a particle-filtering algorithm is used to facilitate estimation by means of maximum likelihood. The estimation method is developed so that option prices are easily included in the dataset, leading to higher quality estimates. Equilibrium arguments are used to price the risks associated with the time-varying crash probability, and in turn to motivate a risk-neutral system for use in option pricing. The option pricing function for the model is obtained via the application of widely-used Fourier techniques. An application to S&P500 index returns and a panel of S&P500 index option prices reveals evidence of self excitation.

Supported gold nanoparticles as photocatalysts utilising the full solar spectrum for organic synthesis

This thesis is an innovative study for organic synthesis using supported gold nanoparticles as photocatalysts under visible light irradiation. It especially examines a novel green process for efficient hydroamination of alkynes with amines. The investigation of other traditional reduction and oxidation reactions also adds significantly to the knowledge of gold nanoparticles and titania nanofibres as photocatalysts for organic synthesis.

Asset allocation policy, returns and expenses of superannuation funds : recent evidence based on default options

We examine the asset allocation, returns, and expenses of superannuation funds whose assets are mainly invested in default investment options between 2004 and 2012. A majority of these funds fail to earn returns commensurate with their strategic asset allocation policy. It appears that much of the variation of returns between the funds might be a result of their engaging in significant active management of assets. Our results indicate that returns from active management are negatively related to expenses. We also find strong evidence of economies of scale existing in these superannuation funds across different size categories.

The impact of the clean development mechanism (CDM) on the cost price of wind power electricity : a China study

As a renewable energy source, wind power is playing an increasingly important role in China’s electricity supply. Meanwhile, China is also the world’s largest market for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) wind power projects. Based on the data of 27 wind power projects of Inner Mongolia registered with the Executive Board of the United Nations (EB) in 2010, this paper constructs a financial model of Net Present Value (NPV) to analyze the cost of wind power electricity. A sensitivity analysis is then conducted to examine the impact of different variables with and without Certified Emission Reduction (CER) income brought about by the CDM. It is concluded that the CDM, along with static investment and annual wind electricity production, is one of the most significant factors in promoting the development of wind power in China. Additionally, wind power is envisaged as a practical proposition for competing with thermal power if the appropriate actions identified in the paper are made.

Generation of active surface states of gold and the role of such states in electrocatalysis

The cyclic voltammetry behaviour of gold in aqueous media is often regarded in very simple terms as a combination of two distinct processes, double layer charging/discharging and monolayer oxide formation/removal. This view is questioned here on the basis of both the present results and earlier independent data by other authors. It was demonstrated in the present case that both severe cathodization or thermal pretreatment of polycrystalline gold in acid solution resulted in the appearance of substantial Faradaic responses in the double layer region. Such anamolous behaviour, as outlined recently also for other metals, is rationalized in terms of the presence of active metal atoms (which undergo premonolayer oxidation) at the electrode surface. Such behaviour, which is also assumed to correspond to that of active sites on conventional gold surfaces, is assumed to be of vital importance in electrocatalysis; in many instances the latter process is also quite marked in the double layer region.

Premonolayer oxidation of nanostructured gold : an important factor influencing electrocatalytic activity

The study of the electrodeposition of polycrystalline gold in aqueous solution is important from the viewpoint that in electrocatalysis applications ill-defined micro- and nanostructured surfaces are often employed. In this work, the morphology of gold was controlled by the electrodeposition potential and the introduction of Pb(CH3COO)2•3H2O into the plating solution to give either smooth or nanostructured gold crystallites or large dendritic structures which have been characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The latter structures were achieved through a novel in situ galvanic replacement of lead with AuCl4−(aq) during the course of gold electrodeposition. The electrochemical behavior of electrodeposited gold in the double layer region was studied in acidic and alkaline media and related to electrocatalytic performance for the oxidation of hydrogen peroxide and methanol. It was found that electrodeposited gold is a significantly better electrocatalyst than a polished gold electrode; however, performance is highly dependent on the chosen deposition parameters. The fabrication of a deposit with highly active surface states, comparable to those achieved at severely disrupted metal surfaces through thermal and electrochemical methods, does not result in the most effective electrocatalyst. This is due to significant premonolayer oxidation that occurs in the double layer region of the electrodeposited gold. In particular, in alkaline solution, where gold usually shows the most electrocatalytic activity, these active surface states may be overoxidized and inhibit the electrocatalytic reaction. However, the activity and morphology of an electrodeposited film can be tailored whereby electrodeposited gold that exhibits nanostructure within the crystallites on the surface demonstrated enhanced electrocatalytic activity compared to smaller smooth gold crystallites and larger dendritic structures in potential regions well within the double layer region.

Study of the underlying electrochemistry of polycrystalline gold electrodes in aqueous solution and electrocatalysis by large amplitude Fourier transformed alternating current voltammetry

Polycrystalline gold electrodes of the kind that are routinely used in analysis and catalysis in aqueous media are often regarded as exhibiting relatively simple double-layer charging/discharging and monolayer oxide formation/ removal in the positive potential region. Application of the large amplitude Fourier transformed alternating current (FT-ac) voltammetric technique that allows the faradaic current contribution of fast electron-transfer processes to be emphasized in the higher harmonic components has revealed the presence of well-defined faradaic (premonolayer oxidation) processes at positive potentials in the double-layer region in acidic and basic media which are enhanced by electrochemical activation. These underlying quasi-reversible interfacial electron-transfer processes may mediate the course of electrocatalytic oxidation reactions of hydrazine, ethylene glycol, and glucose on gold electrodes in aqueous media. The observed responses support key assumptions associated with the incipient hydrous oxide adatom mediator (IHOAM) model of electrocatalysis.

High energy states of gold and their importance in electrocatalytic processes at surfaces and interfaces

The ability of metals to store or trap considerable amounts of energy, and thus exist in a non-equilibrium or metastable state, is very well known in metallurgy; however, such behaviour, which is intimately connected with the defect character of metals, has been largely ignored in noble metal surface electrochemistry. Techniques for generating unusually high energy surface states for gold, and the unusual voltammetric responses of such states, are outlined. The surprisingly high (and complex) electrocatalytic activity of gold in aqueous media is attributed to the presence of a range of such non-equilibrium states as the vital entities at active sites on conventional gold surfaces. The possible relevance of these ideas to account for the remarkable catalytic activity of oxide-supported gold microparticles is briefly outlined.

Auto-inhibition of hydrogen gas evolution on gold in aqueous acid solution

It was demonstrated recently that dramatic changes in the redox behaviour of gold/aqueous solution interfaces may be observed following either cathodic or thermal electrode pretreatment. Further work on the cathodic pretreatment of gold in acid solution revealed that as the activity of the gold surface was increased, its performance as a substrate for hydrogen gas evolution under constant potential conditions deteriorated. The change in activity of the gold atoms at the interface, which was attributed to a hydrogen embrittlement process (the occurrence of the latter was subsequently checked by surface microscopy), was confirmed, as in earlier work, by the appearance of a substantial anodic peak at ca. 0.5 V (RHE) in a post-activation positive sweep. Changes in the catalytic activity of a metal surface reflect the fact that the structure (or topography), thermodynamic activity and electronic properties of a surface are dependent not only on pretreatment but also, in the case of the hydrogen evolution reaction, vary with time during the course of reaction. As will be reported shortly, similar (and often more dramatic) time-dependent behaviour was observed for hydrogen gas evolution on other metal electrodes.

Gold nanospikes formed through a simple electrochemical route with high electrocatalytic and surface enhanced Raman scattering activity

We demonstrate a simple electrochemical route to produce uniformly sized gold nanospikes without the need for a capping agent or prior modification of the electrode surface, which are predominantly oriented in the {111} crystal plane and exhibit promising electrocatalytic and SERS properties.