Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual's previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag-recapture data and tag-recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Estimation of growth parameters from multiple-recapture data

This article develops a method for analysis of growth data with multiple recaptures when the initial ages for all individuals are unknown. The existing approaches either impute the initial ages or model them as random effects. Assumptions about the initial age are not verifiable because all the initial ages are unknown. We present an alternative approach that treats all the lengths including the length at first capture as correlated repeated measures for each individual. Optimal estimating equations are developed using the generalized estimating equations approach that only requires the first two moment assumptions. Explicit expressions for estimation of both mean growth parameters and variance components are given to minimize the computational complexity. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed method works well. Two real data sets are analyzed for illustration, one from whelks (Dicathais aegaota) and the other from southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) in South Australia.

Effect of individual variability on estimation of population parameters from length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity and investigate the possible bias in the estimates when the individual variability is ignored. Three methods are examined: (i) the regression method based on the Beverton and Holt's (1956, Rapp. P.V. Reun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 140: 67-83) equation; (ii) the moment method of Powell (1979, Rapp. PV. Reun. Int. Explor. Mer, 175: 167-169); and (iii) a generalization of Powell's method that estimates the individual variability to be incorporated into the estimation. It is found that the biases in the estimates from the existing methods are, in general, substantial, even when individual variability in growth is small and recruitment is uniform, and the generalized method performs better in terms of bias but is subject to a larger variation. There is a need to develop robust and flexible methods to deal with individual variability in the analysis of length-frequency data.

An improved Fabens method for estimation of growth parameters in the vonBertalanffy model with individual asymptotes

In the analysis of tagging data, it has been found that the least-squares method, based on the increment function known as the Fabens method, produces biased estimates because individual variability in growth is not allowed for. This paper modifies the Fabens method to account for individual variability in the length asymptote. Significance tests using t-statistics or log-likelihood ratio statistics may be applied to show the level of individual variability. Simulation results indicate that the modified method reduces the biases in the estimates to negligible proportions. Tagging data from tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus) and rock lobster (Panulirus ornatus) are analysed as an illustration.

Growth curves with explanatory variables and estimation of the effect of tagging

The von Bertalanffy growth model is extended to incorporate explanatory variables. The generalized model includes the switched growth model and the seasonal growth model as special cases, and can also be used to assess the tagging effect on growth. Distribution-free and consistent estimating functions are constructed for estimation of growth parameters from tag-recapture data in which age at release is unknown. This generalizes the work of James (1991, Biometrics 47 1519-1530) who considered the classical model and allowed for individual variability in growth. A real dataset from barramundi (Lates calcarifer) is analysed to estimate the growth parameters and possible effect of tagging on growth.

The influence of pre-processing on the estimation of readability of web documents

This paper investigates the effect that text pre-processing approaches have on the estimation of the readability of web pages. Readability has been highlighted as an important aspect of web search result personalisation in previous work. The most widely used text readability measures rely on surface level characteristics of text, such as the length of words and sentences. We demonstrate that different tools for extracting text from web pages lead to very different estimations of readability. This has an important implication for search engines because search result personalisation strategies that consider users reading ability may fail if incorrect text readability estimations are computed.

Correction factors for dynamic state estimation of aggregated generators

This paper presents an approach for dynamic state estimation of aggregated generators by introducing a new correction factor for equivalent inter-area power flows. The spread of generators from the center of inertia of each area is summarized by the correction term α on the equivalent power flow between the areas and is applied to the identification and estimation process. A nonlinear time varying Kalman filter is applied to estimate the equivalent angles and velocities of coherent areas by reducing the effect of local modes on the estimated states. The approach is simulated on two test systems and the results show the effect of the correction factor and the performance of the state estimation by estimating the inter-area dynamics of the system.

Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders’ bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder’s probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Estimation of cosmological parameters using adaptive importance sampling

We present a Bayesian sampling algorithm called adaptive importance sampling or population Monte Carlo (PMC), whose computational workload is easily parallelizable and thus has the potential to considerably reduce the wall-clock time required for sampling, along with providing other benefits. To assess the performance of the approach for cosmological problems, we use simulated and actual data consisting of CMB anisotropies, supernovae of type Ia, and weak cosmological lensing, and provide a comparison of results to those obtained using state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). For both types of data sets, we find comparable parameter estimates for PMC and MCMC, with the advantage of a significantly lower wall-clock time for PMC. In the case of WMAP5 data, for example, the wall-clock time scale reduces from days for MCMC to hours using PMC on a cluster of processors. Other benefits of the PMC approach, along with potential difficulties in using the approach, are analyzed and discussed.

Bayesian mixture model estimation of aerosol particle size distributions

In this paper, we examine approaches to estimate a Bayesian mixture model at both single and multiple time points for a sample of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. For estimation of a mixture model at a single time point, we use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to estimate mixture model parameters including the number of components which is assumed to be unknown. We compare the results of this approach to a commonly used estimation method in the aerosol physics literature. As PSD data is often measured over time, often at small time intervals, we also examine the use of an informative prior for estimation of the mixture parameters which takes into account the correlated nature of the parameters. The Bayesian mixture model offers a promising approach, providing advantages both in estimation and inference.

Performance estimation of streaming applications for hierarchical MPSoCs

Parallel programming and effective partitioning of applications for embedded many-core architectures requires optimization algorithms. However, these algorithms have to quickly evaluate thousands of different partitions. We present a fast performance estimator embedded in a parallelizing compiler for streaming applications. The estimator combines a single execution-based simulation and an analytic approach. Experimental results demonstrate that the estimator has a mean error of 2.6% and computes its estimation 2848 times faster compared to a cycle accurate simulator.

Effect of gaze position and blur on stepping accuracy in older adults.

Purpose: To examine the effects of gaze position and optical blur, similar to that used in multifocal corrections, on stepping accuracy for a precision stepping task among older adults. Methods: Nineteen healthy older adults (mean age, 71.6 +/- 8.8 years) with normal vision performed a series of precision stepping tasks onto a fixed target. The stepping tasks were performed using a repeated-measures design for three gaze positions (fixating on the stepping target as well as 30 and 60 cm farther forward of the stepping target) and two visual conditions (best-corrected vision and with +2.50DS blur). Participants' gaze position was tracked using a head-mounted eye tracker. Absolute, anteroposterior, and mediolateral foot placement errors and within-subject foot placement variability were calculated from the locations of foot and floor-mounted retroreflective markers captured by flash photography of the final foot position. Results: Participants made significantly larger absolute and anteroposterior foot placement errors and exhibited greater foot placement variability when their gaze was directed farther forward of the stepping target. Blur led to significantly increased absolute and anteroposterior foot placement errors and increased foot placement variability. Furthermore, blur differentially increased the absolute and anteroposterior foot placement errors and variability when gaze was directed 60 cm farther forward of the stepping target. Conclusions: Increasing gaze position farther ahead from stepping locations and the presence of blur negatively impact the stepping accuracy of older adults. These findings indicate that blur, similar to that used in multifocal corrections, has the potential to increase the risk of trips and falls among older populations when negotiating challenging environments where precision stepping is required, particularly as gaze is directed farther ahead from stepping locations when walking.