Defining the spatiotemporal surveillance space for alien species’ invasions using approximate Bayesian computation

The spatiotemporal dynamics of an alien species invasion across a real landscape are typically complex. While surveillance is an essential part of a management response, planning surveillance in space and time present a difficult challenge due to this complexity. We show here a method for determining the highest probability sites for occupancy across a landscape at an arbitrary point in the future, based on occupancy data from a single slice in time. We apply to the method to the invasion of Giant Hogweed, a serious weed in the Czech republic and throughout Europe.

Spatial-temporal epidemiological analyses of two sympatric, co-endemic alphaviral diseases in Queensland, Australia

Background: The two most reported mosquito-borne diseases in Queensland, a northern state of Australia, are Ross River virus (RRV) disease and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease. Both diseases are endemic in Queensland and have similar clinical symptoms and comparable transmission cycles involving a complex inter-relationship between human hosts, various mosquito vectors, and a range of nonhuman vertebrate hosts, including marsupial mammals that are unique to the Australasian region. Although these viruses are thought to share similar vectors and vertebrate hosts, RRV is four times more prevalent than BFV in Queensland. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of BFV and RRV human disease notification data collected from 1995 to 2007 in Queensland to ascertain whether there were differences in the incidence patterns of RRV and BFV disease. In particular, we compared the temporal incidence and spatial distribution of both diseases and considered the relationship between their disease dynamics. We also investigated whether a peak in BFV incidence during spring was indicative of the following RRV and BFV transmission season incidence levels. Results: Although there were large differences in the notification rates of the two diseases, they had similar annual temporal patterns, but there were regional variations between the length and magnitude of the transmission seasons. During periods of increased disease activity, however, there was no association between the dynamics of the two diseases. Conclusions: The results from this study suggest that while RRV and BFV share similar mosquito vectors, there are significant differences in the ecology of these viruses that result in different epidemic patterns of disease incidence. Further investigation is required into the ecology of each virus to determine which factors are important in promoting RRV and BFV disease outbreaks.

Surviving the electronic panopticon: New lessons in democracy, surveillance, and community in young adult fiction

The ability of new information and communication technologies to pierce previously impenetrable physical, personal, and social boundaries has particular relevance to contemporary society and young people as there is now more information that can be collected, accessed, and distributed about individuals and groups. The ability to know about each other has become a central feature of many young people’s lives. The need to know is further complicated by other questions – Who knows? What do they know? What are the implications of this knowledge?. These questions are a consequence of society having become more mobile and networked enabling increased surveillance, tracking, and spreading of dis/information. With the acceleration of new pervasive and immersive technologies, these questions have taken on a new urgency and significance that go beyond an Orwellian Big Brother scenario. This chapter extends Foucault’s notion of the panopticon to take account of the challenges of an AmI environment of smart networked devices. By drawing on examples of recent young adult fiction, I examine some of the ways in which these texts invite their readers to reflect and speculate on the uneasy relationship between surveillance and democracy and what this means for individual rights and freedom, and a sense of place and belonging.

An efficient and robust system for multi-person event detection in real world indoor surveillance scenes

Due to the popularity of security cameras in public places, it is of interest to design an intelligent system that can efficiently detect events automatically. This paper proposes a novel algorithm for multi-person event detection. To ensure greater than real-time performance, features are extracted directly from compressed MPEG video. A novel histogram-based feature descriptor that captures the angles between extracted particle trajectories is proposed, which allows us to capture motion patterns of multi-person events in the video. To alleviate the need for fine-grained annotation, we propose the use of Labelled Latent Dirichlet Allocation, a “weakly supervised” method that allows the use of coarse temporal annotations which are much simpler to obtain. This novel system is able to run at approximately ten times real-time, while preserving state-of-theart detection performance for multi-person events on a 100-hour real-world surveillance dataset (TRECVid SED).

Healthcare-associated infections in Australia : time for national surveillance

Abstract Objective. Healthcare-associated infection (HAI) surveillance programs are critical for infection prevention. Australia does not have a comprehensive national HAI surveillance program. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of established international and Australian statewide HAI surveillance programs and recommend a pathway for the development of a national HAI surveillance program in Australia. Methods. This study examined existing HAI surveillance programs through a literature review, a review of HAI surveillance program documentation, such as websites, surveillance manuals and data reports and direct contact with program representatives. Results. Evidence from international programs demonstrates national HAI surveillance reduces the incidence of HAIs. However, the current status of HAI surveillance activity in Australian states is disparate, variation between programs is not well understood, and the quality of data currently used to compose national HAI rates is uncertain. Conclusions. There is a need to develop a well-structured, evidence-based national HAI program in Australia to meet the increasing demand for validated reliable national HAI data. Such a program could be leveraged off the work of existing Australian and international programs.

Health consequences of exposure to brominated flame retardants : a systematic review

Background Brominated flame retardants (BFRs), are chemicals widely used in consumer products including electronics, vehicles, plastics and textiles to reduce flammability. Experimental animal studies have confirmed that these compounds may interfere with thyroid hormone homeostasis and neurodevelopment but to date health effects in humans have not been systematically examined. Objectives To conduct a systematic review of studies on the health impacts of exposure to BFRs in humans, with a particular focus on children. Methods A systematic review was conducted using the Medline and EMBASE electronic databases up to 1 February 2012. Published cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies exploring the relationship between BFR exposure and various health outcomes were included. Results In total, 36 epidemiological studies meeting the pre-determined inclusion criteria were included. Plausible outcomes associated with BFR exposure include diabetes, neurobehavioral and developmental disorders, cancer, reproductive health effects and alteration in thyroid function. Evidence for a causal relationship between exposure to BFRs and health outcomes was evaluated within the Bradford Hill framework. Conclusion Although there is suggestive evidence that exposure to BFRs is harmful to health, further epidemiological investigations particularly among children, and long-term monitoring and surveillance of chemical impacts on humans are required to confirm these relationships.

Piecing the puzzle together : enhancing the quality of road trauma surveillance through linkage of police and health data

This program of research linked police and health data collections to investigate the potential benefits for road safety in terms of enhancing the quality of data. This research has important implications for road safety because, although police collected data has historically underpinned efforts in the area, it is known that many road crashes are not reported to police and that these data lack specific injury severity information. This research shows that data linkage provides a more accurate quantification of the severity and prevalence of road crash injuries which is essential for: prioritising funding; targeting interventions; and estimating the burden and cost of road trauma.

Incidence and fatality of serious suicide attempts in a predominantly rural population in Shandong, China : a public health surveillance study

Objectives To estimate the incidence of serious suicide attempts (SSAs, defined as suicide attempts resulting in either death or hospitalisation) and to examine factors associated with fatality among these attempters. Design A surveillance study of incidence and mortality. Linked data from two public health surveillance systems were analysed. Setting Three selected counties in Shandong, China. Participants All residents in the three selected counties. Outcome measures Incidence rate ( per 100 000 person-years) and case fatality rate (%). Methods Records of suicide deaths and hospitalisations that occurred among residents in selected counties during 2009–2011 (5 623 323 person-years) were extracted from electronic databases of the Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) system and the Injury Surveillance System (ISS) and were linked by name, sex, residence and time of suicide attempt. A multiple logistic regression model was developed to examine the factors associated with a higher or lower fatality rate. Results The incidence of SSAs was estimated to be 46 (95% CI 44 to 48) per 100 000 person-years, which was 1.5 times higher in rural versus urban areas, slightly higher among females, and increased with age. Among all SSAs, 51% were hospitalised and survived, 9% were hospitalised but later died and 40% died with no hospitalisation. Most suicide deaths (81%) were not hospitalised and most hospitalised SSAs (85%) survived. The fatality rate was 49% overall, but was significantly higher among attempters living in rural areas, who were male, older, with lower education or with a farming occupation. With regard to the method of suicide, fatality was lowest for non-pesticide poisons (7%) and highest for hanging (97%). Conclusions The incidence of serious suicide attempts is substantially higher in rural areas than in urban areas of China. The risk of death is influenced by the attempter’s sex, age, education level, occupation, method used and season of year.

The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder : application for the global burden of disease study 2010

Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.

Global variation in the prevalence and incidence of major depressive disorder : a systematic review of the epidemiological literature

Background Summarizing the epidemiology of major depressive disorder (MDD) at a global level is complicated by significant heterogeneity in the data. The aim of this study is to present a global summary of the prevalence and incidence of MDD, accounting for sources of bias, and dealing with heterogeneity. Findings are informing MDD burden quantification in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 Study. Method A systematic review of prevalence and incidence of MDD was undertaken. Electronic databases Medline, PsycINFO and EMBASE were searched. Community-representative studies adhering to suitable diagnostic nomenclature were included. A meta-regression was conducted to explore sources of heterogeneity in prevalence and guide the stratification of data in a meta-analysis. Results The literature search identified 116 prevalence and four incidence studies. Prevalence period, sex, year of study, depression subtype, survey instrument, age and region were significant determinants of prevalence, explaining 57.7% of the variability between studies. The global point prevalence of MDD, adjusting for methodological differences, was 4.7% (4.4–5.0%). The pooled annual incidence was 3.0% (2.4–3.8%), clearly at odds with the pooled prevalence estimates and the previously reported average duration of 30 weeks for an episode of MDD. Conclusions Our findings provide a comprehensive and up-to-date profile of the prevalence of MDD globally. Region and study methodology influenced the prevalence of MDD. This needs to be considered in the GBD 2010 study and in investigations into the ecological determinants of MDD. Good-quality estimates from low-/middle-income countries were sparse. More accurate data on incidence are also required.

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

Objectives Directly measuring disease incidence in a population is difficult and not feasible to do routinely. We describe the development and application of a new method of estimating at a population level the number of incident genital chlamydia infections, and the corresponding incidence rates, by age and sex using routine surveillance data. Methods A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to calibrate the parameters of a decision-pathway tree against national data on numbers of notifications and tests conducted (2001-2013). Independent beta probability density functions were adopted for priors on the time-independent parameters; the shape parameters of these beta distributions were chosen to match prior estimates sourced from peer-reviewed literature or expert opinion. To best facilitate the calibration, multivariate Gaussian priors on (the logistic transforms of) the time-dependent parameters were adopted, using the Matérn covariance function to favour changes over consecutive years and across adjacent age cohorts. The model outcomes were validated by comparing them with other independent empirical epidemiological measures i.e. prevalence and incidence as reported by other studies. Results Model-based estimates suggest that the total number of people acquiring chlamydia per year in Australia has increased by ~120% over 12 years. Nationally, an estimated 356,000 people acquired chlamydia in 2013, which is 4.3 times the number of reported diagnoses. This corresponded to a chlamydia annual incidence estimate of 1.54% in 2013, increased from 0.81% in 2001 (~90% increase). Conclusions We developed a statistical method which uses routine surveillance (notifications and testing) data to produce estimates of the extent and trends in chlamydia incidence.