A model of project complexity : distinguishing dimensions of complexity from severity

There is increasing agreement that understanding complexity is important for project management because of difficulties associated with decision-making and goal attainment which appear to stem from complexity. However the current operational definitions of complex projects, based upon size and budget, have been challenged and questions have been raised about how complexity can be measured in a robust manner that takes account of structural, dynamic and interaction elements. Thematic analysis of data from 25 in-depth interviews of project managers involved with complex projects, together with an exploration of the literature reveals a wide range of factors that may contribute to project complexity. We argue that these factors contributing to project complexity may define in terms of dimensions, or source characteristics, which are in turn subject to a range of severity factors. In addition to investigating definitions and models of complexity from the literature and in the field, this study also explores the problematic issues of ‘measuring’ or assessing complexity. A research agenda is proposed to further the investigation of phenomena reported in this initial study.

Ghrelin gene-related peptides : multifunctional endocrine/autocrine modulators in health and disease

Ghrelin is a multi-functional peptide hormone which affects various processes including growth hormone and insulin release, appetite regulation, gut motility, metabolism and cancer cell proliferation. Ghrelin is produced in the stomach and in other normal and pathological cell types. It may act as an endocrine or autocrine/paracrine factor. The ghrelin gene encodes a precursor protein, preproghrelin, from which ghrelin and other potentially active peptides are derived by alternative mRNA splicing and/or proteolytic processing. The metabolic role of the peptide obestatin, derived from the preproghrelin C-terminal region, is controversial. However, it has direct effects on cancer cell proliferation. The regulation of ghrelin expression and the mechanisms through which the peptide products arise are unclear. We have recently re-examined the organisation of the ghrelin gene and identified several novel exons and transcripts. One transcript, which lacks the ghrelin-coding region of preproghrelin, contains the coding sequence of obestatin. Furthermore, we have identified an overlapping gene on the antisense strand of ghrelin, GHRLOS, which generates transcripts that may function as non-coding regulatory RNAs or code for novel, short bioactive peptides. The identification of these novel ghrelin-gene related transcripts and peptides raises critical questions regarding their physiological function and their role in obesity, diabetes and cancer.

The reliability and validity of the Severity of Dependence Scale for detecting cannabis dependence in psychosis.

Aims: To determine the reliability and validity of the Severity of Dependence Scale (SDS) for detecting cannabis dependence in a large sample of in-patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Design: Cross-sectional study. Participants: Participants were 153 in-patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder in Brisbane, Australia. Measurements: Participants were administered the SDS for cannabis dependence in the past 12 months. The presence of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual Version-IV (DSM-IV) cannabis dependence in the previous 12 months was assessed using the Comprehensive International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Findings: The SDS had high levels of internal consistency and strong construct and concurrent validity. Individuals with a score of ≥2 on the SDS were nearly 30 times more likely to have DSM-IV cannabis dependence. The SDS was the strongest predictor of DSM-IV cannabis dependence after controlling for other predictor variables. Conclusions: The SDS is a brief, valid and reliable screen for cannabis dependence among people with psychosis

Establishment of a mouse model of colitis and its use to evaluate the anti-inflammatory effects of two ghrelin peptides

Ghrelin is a gut-brain peptide hormone that induces appetite, stimulates the release of growth hormone, and has recently been shown to ameliorate inflammation. Recent studies have suggested that ghrelin may play a potential role in inflammation-related diseases such as inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). A previous study with ghrelin in the TNBS mouse model of colitis demonstrated that ghrelin treatment decreased the clinical severity of colitis and inflammation and prevented the recurrence of disease. Ghrelin may be acting at the immunological and epithelial level as the ghrelin receptor (GHSR) is expressed by immune cells and intestinal epithelial cells. The current project investigated the effect of ghrelin in a different mouse model of colitis using dextran sodium sulphate (DSS) – a luminal toxin. Two molecular weight forms of DSS were used as they give differing effects (5kDa and 40kDa). Ghrelin treatment significantly improved clinical colitis scores (p=0.012) in the C57BL/6 mouse strain with colitis induced by 2% DSS (5kDa). Treatment with ghrelin suppressed colitis in the proximal colon as indicated by reduced accumulative histopathology scores (p=0.03). Whilst there was a trend toward reduced scores in the mid and distal colon in these mice this did not reach significance. Ghrelin did not affect histopathology scores in the 40kDa model. There was no significant effect on the number of regulatory T cells or TNF-α secretion from cultured lymph node cells from these mice. The discovery of C-terminal ghrelin peptides, for example, obestatin and the peptide derived from exon 4 deleted proghrelin (Δ4 preproghrelin peptide) have raised questions regarding their potential role in biological functions. The current project investigated the effect of Δ4 peptide in the DSS model of colitis however no significant suppression of colitis was observed. In vitro epithelial wound healing assays were also undertaken to determine the effect of ghrelin on intestinal epithelial cell migration. Ghrelin did not significantly improve wound healing in these assays. In conclusion, ghrelin treatment displays a mild anti-inflammatory effect in the 5kDa DSS model. The potential mechanisms behind this effect and the disparity between these results and those published previously will be discussed.

Clinical efficacy and safety of zoledronic acid in osteoporosis and Paget's disease

Osteoporosis and Paget’s bone disease are the most common diseases of the bone. In addition to glucocorticoid treatment, there are many other secondary causes of osteoporosis. Bisphosphonates are used to treat these bone conditions. Zoledronic acid is the most potent bisphosphonate at inhibiting bone resorption. In osteoporosis, zoledronic acid increases bone mineral density for at least 1 year following a single intravenous administration. The efficacy and safety of zoledronic acid in the treatment of osteoporosis and Paget’s bone disease are reviewed. This article also covers the studies of the effects of zoledronic acid in the bone loss associated with the secondary osteoporosis.

Vitamin D in health and disease : an insight into traditional functions and new roles for the 'sunshine vitamin'

Vitamin D is unique among the vitamins in that humans can synthesize it via the action of UV radiation upon the skin. This combined with its ability to act on specific target tissues via Vitamin D Receptor’s (VDR) make its classification as a steroid hormone more appropriate. While Vitamin D deficiency is a recognized problem in some northern latitude countries, recent studies have shown even in sunny countries such as Australia, vitamin D deficiency may be more prevalent than first thought. Vitamin D is most well known for its role in bone health, however, the discovery of VDR’s on a wide variety of tissue types has also opened up roles for vitamin D far beyond traditional bone health. These include possible associations with autoimmune diseases such as multiple sclerosis and inflammatory bowel diseases, cancer, cardiovascular diseases and muscle strength. Firstly, this paper presents an overview of the two sources of vitamin D: exposure to ultraviolet-B radiation and food sources of vitamin D, with particular focus on both Australian and international studies on dietary vitamin D intake and national fortification strategies. Secondly, the paper reviews recent epidemiological and experimental evidence linking vitamin D and its role in health and disease for the major conditions linked to suboptimal vitamin D, while identifying significant gaps in the research and possible future directions for research.

Inequalities in cardiovascular disease mortality : the role of behavioural, physiological and social risk factors

Background: While the relationship between socioeconomic disadvantage and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established, the role that traditional cardiovascular risk factors play in this association remains unclear. We examined the association between education attainment and CVD mortality and the extent to which behavioural, social and physiological factors explained this relationship. Methods: Adults (n=38 355) aged 40-69 years living in Melbourne, Australia were recruited in 1990-1994. Subjects with baseline CVD risk factor data ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement were followed for an average of 9.4 years with CVD deaths verified by review of medical records and autopsy reports. Results: CVD mortality was higher for those with primary education only compared to those who had completed tertiary education, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.66 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-2.49) after adjustment for age, country of birth and gender. Those from the lowest educated group had a more adverse cardiovascular risk factor profile compared to the highest educated group, and adjustment for these risk factors reduced the HR to 1.18 (95% CI 0.78-1.77). In analysis of individual risk factors, smoking and waist circumference explained most of the difference in CVD mortality between the highest and lowest education groups. Conclusions: Most of the excess CVD mortality in lower socioeconomic groups can be explained by known risk factors, particularly smoking and overweight. While targeting cardiovascular risk factors should not divert efforts from addressing the underlying determinants of health inequalities, it is essential that known risk factors are addressed effectively among lower socioeconomic groups.

New insights into appetite, inflammation and the use of fish oil in hemodialysis patients

Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is commonly seen in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The condition is characterised by chronic, systemic low-grade inflammation which affects nutritional status by a variety of mechanisms including reducing appetite and food intake and increasing muscle catabolism. PEW is linked with co-morbidities such as cardiovascular disease, and is associated with lower quality of life, increased hospitalisations and a 6-fold increase in risk of death1. Significant gender differences have been found in the severity and effects of several markers of PEW. There have been limited studies testing the ability of anti-inflammatory agents or nutritional interventions to reduce the effects of PEW in dialysis patients. This thesis makes a significant contribution to the understanding of PEW in dialysis patients. It advances understanding of measurement techniques for two of the key components, appetite and inflammation, and explores the effect of fish oil, an anti-inflammatory agent, on markers of PEW in dialysis patients. The first part of the thesis consists of two methodological studies conducted using baseline data. The first study aims to validate retrospective ratings of hunger, desire to eat and fullness on visual analog scales (VAS) (paper and pen and electronic) as a new method of measuring appetite in dialysis patients. The second methodological study aims to assess the ability of a variety of methods available in routine practice to detect the presence of inflammation. The second part of the thesis aims to explore the effect of 12 weeks supplementation with 2g per day of Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA), a longchain fatty acid found in fish oil, on markers of PEW. A combination of biomarkers and psychomarkers of appetite and inflammation are the main outcomes being explored, with nutritional status, dietary intake and quality of life included as secondary outcomes. A lead in phase of 3 months prior to baseline was used so that each person acts as their own historical control. The study also examines whether there are gender differences in response to the treatment. Being an exploratory study, an important part of the work is to test the feasibility of the intervention, thus the level of adherence and factors associated with adherence are also presented. The studies were conducted at the hemodialysis unit of the Wesley Hospital. Participants met the following criteria: adult, stage 5 CKD on hemodialysis for at least 3 months, not expected to receive a transplant or switch to another dialysis modality during the study, absence of intellectual impairment or mental illness impairing ability to follow instructions or complete the intervention. A range of intermediate, clinical and patient-centred outcome measures were collected at baseline and 12 weeks. Inflammation was measured using five biomarkers: c-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL6), intercellular adhesion molecule (sICAM-1), vascular cell adhesion molecule (sVCAM-1) and white cell count (WCC). Subjective appetite was measured using the first question from the Appetite and Dietary Assessment (ADAT) tool and VAS for measurements of hunger, desire to eat and fullness. A novel feature of the study was the assessment of the appetite peptides leptin, ghrelin and peptide YY as biomarkers of appetite. Nutritional status/inflammation was assessed using the Malnutrition-Inflammation Score (MIS) and the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Dietary intake was measured using 3-day records. Quality of life was measured using the Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short Form version 1.3 (KDQOL-SF™ v1.3 © RAND University), which combines the Short-Form 36 (SF36) with a kidney-disease specific module2. A smaller range of these variables was available for analysis during the control phase (CRP, ADAT, dietary intake and nutritional status). Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS version 14 (SPSS Inc, Chicago IL, USA). Analysis of the first part of the thesis involved descriptive and bivariate statistics, as well as Bland-Altman plots to assess agreement between methods, and sensitivity analysis/ROC curves to test the ability of methods to predict the presence of inflammation. The unadjusted (paired ttests) and adjusted (linear mixed model) change over time is presented for the main outcome variables of inflammation and appetite. Results are shown for the whole group followed by analyses according to gender and adherence to treatment. Due to the exploratory nature of the study, trends and clinical significance were considered as important as statistical significance. Twenty-eight patients (mean age 61±17y, 50% male, dialysis vintage 19.5 (4- 101) months) underwent baseline assessment. Seven out of 28 patients (25%) reported sub-optimal appetite (self-reported as fair, poor or very poor) despite all being well nourished (100% SGA A). Using the VAS, ratings of hunger, but not desire to eat or fullness, were significantly (p<0.05) associated with a range of relevant clinical variables including age (r=-0.376), comorbidities (r=-0.380) nutritional status (PG-SGA score, r=-0.451), inflammatory markers (CRP r=-0.383; sICAM-1 r=-0.387) and seven domains of quality of life. Patients expressed a preference for the paper and pen method of administering VAS. None of the tools (appetite, MIS, PG-SGA, albumin or iron) showed an acceptable ability to detect patients who are inflamed. It is recommended that CRP should be tested more frequently as a matter of course rather than seeking alternative methods of measuring inflammation. 27 patients completed the 12 week intervention. 20 patients were considered adherent based on changes in % plasma EPA, which rose from 1.3 (0.94)% to 5.2 (1.1)%, p<0.001, in this group. The major barriers to adherence were forgetting to take the tablets as well as their size. At 12 weeks, inflammatory markers remained steady apart from the white cell count which decreased (7.6(2.5) vs 7.0(2.2) x109/L, p=0.058) and sVCAM-1 which increased (1685(654) vs 2249(925) ng/mL, p=0.001). Subjective appetite using VAS increased (51mm to 57mm, +12%) and there was a trend towards reduction in peptide YY (660(31) vs 600(30) pg/mL, p=0.078). There were some gender differences apparent, with the following adjusted change between baseline and week 12: CRP (males -3% vs females +17%, p=0.19), IL6 (males +17% vs females +48%, p=0.77), sICAM-1 (males -5% vs females +11%, p=0.07), sVCAM-1 (males +54% vs females +19%, p=0.08) and hunger ratings (males 20% vs females -5%, p=0.18). On balance, males experienced a maintainence or reduction in three inflammatory markers and an improvement in hunger ratings, and therefore appeared to have responded better to the intervention. Compared to those who didn’t adhere, adherent patients maintained weight (mean(SE) change: +0.5(1.6) vs - 0.8(1.2) kg, p=0.052) and fat-free mass (-0.1 (1.6) vs -1.8 (1.8) kg, p=0.045). There was no difference in change between the intervention and control phase for CRP, appetite, nutritional status or dietary intake. The thesis makes a significant contribution to the evidence base for understanding of PEW in dialysis patients. It has advanced knowledge of methods of assessing inflammation and appetite. Retrospective ratings of hunger on a VAS appear to be a valid method of assessing appetite although samples which include patients with very poor appetite are required to confirm this. Supplementation with fish oil appeared to improve subjective appetite and dampen the inflammatory response. The effectiveness of the intervention is influenced by gender and adherence. Males appear to be more responsive to the primary outcome variables than females, and the quality of response is improved with better adherence. These results provide evidence to support future interventions aimed at reducing the effects of PEW in dialysis patients.

Resilience in chronic disease : the relationships among risk factors, protective factors, adaptive outcomes, and the level of resilience in adults with diabetes

Background: There are innumerable diabetes studies that have investigated associations between risk factors, protective factors, and health outcomes; however, these individual predictors are part of a complex network of interacting forces. Moreover, there is little awareness about resilience or its importance in chronic disease in adulthood, especially diabetes. Thus, this is the first study to: (1) extensively investigate the relationships among a host of predictors and multiple adaptive outcomes; and (2) conceptualise a resilience model among people with diabetes. Methods: This cross-sectional study was divided into two research studies. Study One was to translate two diabetes-specific instruments (Problem Areas In Diabetes, PAID; Diabetes Coping Measure, DCM) into a Chinese version and to examine their psychometric properties for use in Study Two in a convenience sample of 205 outpatients with type 2 diabetes. In Study Two, an integrated theoretical model is developed and evaluated using the structural equation modelling (SEM) technique. A self-administered questionnaire was completed by 345 people with type 2 diabetes from the endocrine outpatient departments of three hospitals in Taiwan. Results: Confirmatory factor analyses confirmed a one-factor structure of the PAID-C which was similar to the original version of the PAID. Strong content validity of the PAID-C was demonstrated. The PAID-C was associated with HbA1c and diabetes self-care behaviours, confirming satisfactory criterion validity. There was a moderate relationship between the PAID-C and the Perceived Stress Scale, supporting satisfactory convergent validity. The PAID-C also demonstrated satisfactory stability and high internal consistency. A four-factor structure and strong content validity of the DCM-C was confirmed. Criterion validity demonstrated that the DCM-C was significantly associated with HbA1c and diabetes self-care behaviours. There was a statistical correlation between the DCM-C and the Revised Ways of Coping Checklist, suggesting satisfactory convergent validity. Test-retest reliability demonstrated satisfactory stability of the DCM-C. The total scale of the DCM-C showed adequate internal consistency. Age, duration of diabetes, diabetes symptoms, diabetes distress, physical activity, coping strategies, and social support were the most consistent factors associated with adaptive outcomes in adults with diabetes. Resilience was positively associated with coping strategies, social support, health-related quality of life, and diabetes self-care behaviours. Results of the structural equation modelling revealed protective factors had a significant direct effect on adaptive outcomes; however, the construct of risk factors was not significantly related to adaptive outcomes. Moreover, resilience can moderate the relationships among protective factors and adaptive outcomes, but there were no interaction effects of risk factors and resilience on adaptive outcomes. Conclusion: This study contributes to an understanding of how risk factors and protective factors work together to influence adaptive outcomes in blood sugar control, health-related quality of life, and diabetes self-care behaviours. Additionally, resilience is a positive personality characteristic and may be importantly involved in the adjustment process among people living with type 2 diabetes.

Anger and depression predict hospital use among chronic heart failure patients

Costly hospital readmissions among chronic heart failure (CHF) patients are expected to increase dramatically with the ageing population. This study investigated the prognostic ability of depression, anger and anxiety, prospectively, and after adjusting for illness severity, on the number of readmissions to hospital and the total length of stay over one year. Participants comprised 175 inpatients with CHF. Depression, anger, anxiety, and illness severity were measured at baseline. One year later, the number of readmissions and length of stay for each patient were obtained from medical records. Depression and anger play a detrimental role in the health profile of CHF patients.

Mining patterns and factors contributing to crash severity on road curves

Road curves are an important feature of road infrastructure and many serious crashes occur on road curves. In Queensland, the number of fatalities is twice as many on curves as that on straight roads. Therefore, there is a need to reduce drivers’ exposure to crash risk on road curves. Road crashes in Australia and in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) have plateaued in the last five years (2004 to 2008) and the road safety community is desperately seeking innovative interventions to reduce the number of crashes. However, designing an innovative and effective intervention may prove to be difficult as it relies on providing theoretical foundation, coherence, understanding, and structure to both the design and validation of the efficiency of the new intervention. Researchers from multiple disciplines have developed various models to determine the contributing factors for crashes on road curves with a view towards reducing the crash rate. However, most of the existing methods are based on statistical analysis of contributing factors described in government crash reports. In order to further explore the contributing factors related to crashes on road curves, this thesis designs a novel method to analyse and validate these contributing factors. The use of crash claim reports from an insurance company is proposed for analysis using data mining techniques. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to use data mining techniques to analyse crashes on road curves. Text mining technique is employed as the reports consist of thousands of textual descriptions and hence, text mining is able to identify the contributing factors. Besides identifying the contributing factors, limited studies to date have investigated the relationships between these factors, especially for crashes on road curves. Thus, this study proposed the use of the rough set analysis technique to determine these relationships. The results from this analysis are used to assess the effect of these contributing factors on crash severity. The findings obtained through the use of data mining techniques presented in this thesis, have been found to be consistent with existing identified contributing factors. Furthermore, this thesis has identified new contributing factors towards crashes and the relationships between them. A significant pattern related with crash severity is the time of the day where severe road crashes occur more frequently in the evening or night time. Tree collision is another common pattern where crashes that occur in the morning and involves hitting a tree are likely to have a higher crash severity. Another factor that influences crash severity is the age of the driver. Most age groups face a high crash severity except for drivers between 60 and 100 years old, who have the lowest crash severity. The significant relationship identified between contributing factors consists of the time of the crash, the manufactured year of the vehicle, the age of the driver and hitting a tree. Having identified new contributing factors and relationships, a validation process is carried out using a traffic simulator in order to determine their accuracy. The validation process indicates that the results are accurate. This demonstrates that data mining techniques are a powerful tool in road safety research, and can be usefully applied within the Intelligent Transport System (ITS) domain. The research presented in this thesis provides an insight into the complexity of crashes on road curves. The findings of this research have important implications for both practitioners and academics. For road safety practitioners, the results from this research illustrate practical benefits for the design of interventions for road curves that will potentially help in decreasing related injuries and fatalities. For academics, this research opens up a new research methodology to assess crash severity, related to road crashes on curves.

Adiabatic compression testing - part II : background and approach to estimating severity of test methodology

Adiabatic compression testing of components in gaseous oxygen is a test method that is utilized worldwide and is commonly required to qualify a component for ignition tolerance under its intended service. This testing is required by many industry standards organizations and government agencies; however, a thorough evaluation of the test parameters and test system influences on the thermal energy produced during the test has not yet been performed. This paper presents a background for adiabatic compression testing and discusses an approach to estimating potential differences in the thermal profiles produced by different test laboratories. A “Thermal Profile Test Fixture” (TPTF) is described that is capable of measuring and characterizing the thermal energy for a typical pressure shock by any test system. The test systems at Wendell Hull & Associates, Inc. (WHA) in the USA and at the BAM Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing in Germany are compared in this manner and some of the data obtained is presented. The paper also introduces a new way of comparing the test method to idealized processes to perform system-by-system comparisons. Thus, the paper introduces an “Idealized Severity Index” (ISI) of the thermal energy to characterize a rapid pressure surge. From the TPTF data a “Test Severity Index” (TSI) can also be calculated so that the thermal energies developed by different test systems can be compared to each other and to the ISI for the equivalent isentropic process. Finally, a “Service Severity Index” (SSI) is introduced to characterizing the thermal energy of actual service conditions. This paper is the second in a series of publications planned on the subject of adiabatic compression testing.

Sustainability of a multimodal intervention to promote lifestyle factors associated with the prevention of cardiovascular disease in midlife Australian women : a 5-year follow-up

We evaluated sustainability of an intervention to reduce women’s cardiovascular risk factors, determined the influence of self-efficacy, and described women’s current health. We used a mixed method approach that utilized forced choice and open-ended questionnaire items about health status, habits, and self-efficacy. Sixty women, average age 61, returned questionnaires. Women in the original intervention group continued health behaviors intended to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) at a higher rate than the control group, supporting the feasibility of a targeted intervention built around women’s individual goals. The role of self-efficacy in behavior change is unclear. The original intervention group reported higher self-reported health.