Bayesian mixtures for modelling complex medical data : a case study in Parkinson’s disease

Mixture models are a flexible tool for unsupervised clustering that have found popularity in a vast array of research areas. In studies of medicine, the use of mixtures holds the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of patient responses through the identification of clinically meaningful clusters that, given the complexity of many data sources, may otherwise by intangible. Furthermore, when developed in the Bayesian framework, mixture models provide a natural means for capturing and propagating uncertainty in different aspects of a clustering solution, arguably resulting in richer analyses of the population under study. This thesis aims to investigate the use of Bayesian mixture models in analysing varied and detailed sources of patient information collected in the study of complex disease. The first aim of this thesis is to showcase the flexibility of mixture models in modelling markedly different types of data. In particular, we examine three common variants on the mixture model, namely, finite mixtures, Dirichlet Process mixtures and hidden Markov models. Beyond the development and application of these models to different sources of data, this thesis also focuses on modelling different aspects relating to uncertainty in clustering. Examples of clustering uncertainty considered are uncertainty in a patient’s true cluster membership and accounting for uncertainty in the true number of clusters present. Finally, this thesis aims to address and propose solutions to the task of comparing clustering solutions, whether this be comparing patients or observations assigned to different subgroups or comparing clustering solutions over multiple datasets. To address these aims, we consider a case study in Parkinson’s disease (PD), a complex and commonly diagnosed neurodegenerative disorder. In particular, two commonly collected sources of patient information are considered. The first source of data are on symptoms associated with PD, recorded using the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) and constitutes the first half of this thesis. The second half of this thesis is dedicated to the analysis of microelectrode recordings collected during Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS), a popular palliative treatment for advanced PD. Analysis of this second source of data centers on the problems of unsupervised detection and sorting of action potentials or "spikes" in recordings of multiple cell activity, providing valuable information on real time neural activity in the brain.

Reduced variance in monozygous twins for multiple MR parameters : implications for disease studies and the genetic basis of brain structure

Twin studies offer the opportunity to determine the relative contribution of genes versus environment in traits of interest. Here, we investigate the extent to which variance in brain structure is reduced in monozygous twins with identical genetic make-up. We investigate whether using twins as compared to a control population reduces variability in a number of common magnetic resonance (MR) structural measures, and we investigate the location of areas under major genetic influences. This is fundamental to understanding the benefit of using twins in studies where structure is the phenotype of interest. Twenty-three pairs of healthy MZ twins were compared to matched control pairs. Volume, T2 and diffusion MR imaging were performed as well as spectroscopy (MRS). Images were compared using (i) global measures of standard deviation and effect size, (ii) voxel-based analysis of similarity and (iii) intra-pair correlation. Global measures indicated a consistent increase in structural similarity in twins. The voxel-based and correlation analyses indicated a widespread pattern of increased similarity in twin pairs, particularly in frontal and temporal regions. The areas of increased similarity were most widespread for the diffusion trace and least widespread for T2. MRS showed consistent reduction in metabolite variation that was significant in the temporal lobe N-acetylaspartate (NAA). This study has shown the distribution and magnitude of reduced variability in brain volume, diffusion, T2 and metabolites in twins. The data suggest that evaluation of twins discordant for disease is indeed a valid way to attribute genetic or environmental influences to observed abnormalities in patients since evidence is provided for the underlying assumption of decreased variability in twins.

Estimation on disease burden related to hepatitis B virus infection in Shandong province of China [山东省乙型肝炎病毒感染所致相关疾病的疾病负担研究]

Objective: To comprehensively measure the burden of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer in Shandong province, using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to estimate the disease burden attribute to hepatitis B virus (HBV)infection. Methods: Based on the mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer derived from the third National Sampling Retrospective Survey for Causes of Death during 2004 and 2005, the incidence data of hepatitis B and the prevalence and the disability weights of liver cancer gained from the Shandong Cancer Prevalence Sampling Survey in 2007, we calculated the years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and DALYs of three diseases following the procedures developed for the global burden of disease (GBD) study to ensure the comparability. Results: The total burden for hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 211 616 (39 377 YLLs and 172 239 YLDs), 16 783 (13 497 YLLs and 3286 YLDs) and 247 795 (240 236 YLLs and 7559 YLDs) DALYs in 2005 respectively, and men were 2.19, 2.36 and 3.16 times as that for women, respectively in Shandong province. The burden for hepatitis B was mainly because of disability (81.39%). However, most burden on liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were due to premature death (80.42% and 96.95%). The burden of each patient related to hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 4.8, 13.73 and 11.11 respectively. Conclusion: Hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer caused considerable burden to the people living in Shandong province, indicating that the control of hepatitis B virus infection would bring huge potential benefits.

Estimation on the mortality and disease burden attributed to selected risk factors in Shandong province [山东省主要危险因素的归因死亡和疾病负担分析]

Objective: To determine the major health related risk factors and provide evidence for policy-making,using health burden analysis on selected factors among general population from Shandong province. Methods: Based on data derived from the Third Death of Cause Sampling Survey in Shandong. Years of life lcrat(YLLs),yearS Iived with disability(YLDs)and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) were calculated according to the GBD ethodology.Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were than estimated together with the PAF data from GBD 2001 study.The indirect method was employed to estimate the YLDs. Results: 51.09%of the total dearlls and 31.83%of the total DALYs from the Shandong population were resulted from the 19 selected risk factors.High blood pre.ure,smoking,low fruit and vegetable intake,aleohol consumption,indoor smoke from solid fuels,high cholesterol,urban air pollution, physical inactivity,overweight and obesity and unsafe injections in health care settings were identified as the top 10 risk faetors for mortality which together caused 50.21%of the total deaths.Alcohol use,smoking,high blood pressure,Low fruit and vegetable intake, indoor smoke from solid fuels, overweight and obesity,high cholesterol, physical inactivity,urban air pollution and iron-deficiency anemia were proved as the top 10 risk factors related to disease burden and were responsible for 29.04%of the total DALYs. Conclusion: Alcohol use.smoking and high blood pressure were determined as the major risk factors which influencing the health of residents in Shandong. The mortality and burden of disease could be reduced significantly if these major factors were effectively under control.

Interaction of myxomatosis and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease in wild rabbit

Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

The relationship between chronic disease self-efficacy and nutritional status, functional ability and quality of life in older adults at risk of hospital readmission

Background and significance: Older adults with chronic diseases are at increasing risk of hospital admission and readmission. Approximately 75% of adults have at least one chronic condition, and the odds of developing a chronic condition increases with age. Chronic diseases consume about 70% of the total Australian health expenditure, and about 59% of hospital events for chronic conditions are potentially preventable. These figures have brought to light the importance of the management of chronic disease among the growing older population. Many studies have endeavoured to develop effective chronic disease management programs by applying social cognitive theory. However, limited studies have focused on chronic disease self-management in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Moreover, although the majority of studies have covered wide and valuable outcome measures, there is scant evidence on examining the fundamental health outcomes such as nutritional status, functional status and health-related quality of life. Aim: The aim of this research was to test social cognitive theory in relation to self-efficacy in managing chronic disease and three health outcomes, namely nutritional status, functional status, and health-related quality of life, in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was employed for this research. Three studies were undertaken. Study One examined the nutritional status and validation of a nutritional screening tool; Study Two explored the relationships between participants. characteristics, self-efficacy beliefs, and health outcomes based on the study.s hypothesized model; Study Three tested a theoretical model based on social cognitive theory, which examines potential mechanisms of the mediation effects of social support and self-efficacy beliefs. One hundred and fifty-seven patients aged 65 years and older with a medical admission and at least one risk factor for readmission were recruited. Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history, and from self-report questionnaires. The nutrition data were collected by two registered nurses. For Study One, a contingency table and the kappa statistic was used to determine the validity of the Malnutrition Screening Tool. In Study Two, standard multiple regression, hierarchical multiple regression and logistic regression were undertaken to determine the significant influential predictors for the three health outcome measures. For Study Three, a structural equation modelling approach was taken to test the hypothesized self-efficacy model. Results: The findings of Study One suggested that a high prevalence of malnutrition continues to be a concern in older adults as the prevalence of malnutrition was 20.6% according to the Subjective Global Assessment. Additionally, the findings confirmed that the Malnutrition Screening Tool is a valid nutritional screening tool for hospitalized older adults at risk of readmission when compared to the Subjective Global Assessment with high sensitivity (94%), and specificity (89%) and substantial agreement between these two methods (k = .74, p < .001; 95% CI .62-.86). Analysis data for Study Two found that depressive symptoms and perceived social support were the two strongest influential factors for self-efficacy in managing chronic disease in a hierarchical multiple regression. Results of multivariable regression models suggested advancing age, depressive symptoms and less tangible support were three important predictors for malnutrition. In terms of functional status, a standard regression model found that social support was the strongest predictor for the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, followed by self-efficacy in managing chronic disease. The results of standard multiple regression revealed that the number of hospital readmission risk factors adversely affected the physical component score, while depressive symptoms and self-efficacy beliefs were two significant predictors for the mental component score. In Study Three, the results of the structural equation modelling found that self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of health characteristics and depression on health-related quality of life. The health characteristics had strong direct effects on functional status and body mass index. The results also indicated that social support partially mediated the relationship between health characteristics and functional status. With regard to the joint effects of social support and self-efficacy, social support fully mediated the effect of health characteristics on self-efficacy, and self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of social support on functional status and health-related quality of life. The results also demonstrated that the models fitted the data well with relative high variance explained by the models, implying the hypothesized constructs under discussion were highly relevant, and hence the application for social cognitive theory in this context was supported. Conclusion: This thesis highlights the applicability of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults at risk of hospital readmission. Further studies are recommended to validate and continue to extend the development of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults to improve their nutritional and functional status, and health-related quality of life.

Markers of chronic disease in offenders in a high secure correctional centre in Queensland

This study aimed to gauge the presence of markers of chronic disease, as a basis for food and nutrition policy in correctional facilities. One hundred and twenty offenders, recruited from a Queensland Correctional Centre, provided informed consent and completed both dietary interviews and physical measurements. Mean age of the sample was 35.5 ± 12 years (range = 19–77 yrs); mean age of the total population (n = 945) was 32.8 ± 10 years (range = 19–80 yrs). Seventy-nine participants also provided fasting blood samples. The mean body mass index (BMI) was 27 ± 3.5 kg/m2; 72% having a BMI > 25 kg/m2. Thirty-three percent were classified overweight or obese using waist circumference (mean = 92 ± 10 cm). Mean blood pressure measurement was systolic = 130 ± 14 mmHg and diastolic = 73 ± 10 mmHg. Twenty-four percent were classified as hypertensive of whom three were on antihypertensive medication. Eighteen percent had elevated triglycerides, and 40% unfavourable total cholesterol to HDL ratios. Homeostatic Model Assessment (HOMA scores) were calculated from glucose and insulin. Four participants were insulin resistant, two of whom had known diabetes. Metabolic syndrome, based on waist circumference (adjusted for ethnicity), blood lipids, blood pressure and plasma glucose indicated that 25% (n = 20) were classified with metabolic syndrome. Eighty-four percent (n = 120) reported some physical activity each day, with 51 percent participating ≥two times daily. Fifty-four percent reported smoking with an additional 20% having smoked in the past. Findings suggest that waist circumference rather than weight and BMI only should be used in this group to determine weight status. The data suggest that markers of chronic disease are present and that food and nutrition policy must reflect this. Further analysis is being completed to determine relevant policy initiatives.

The 'obesity paradox' in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Poor nutritional status in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased mortality independently of disease-severity (Collins et al).1 Epidemiological studies have suggested a protective role of obesity against mortality in COPD (Vestbo et al)2 which is contrary to data from the general population where obesity is associated with decreased life expectancy. This relationship has been referred to as the ‘obesity paradox’ and has been demonstrated in a number of chronic wasting conditions (Kalantar-Zadeh et al).3 This study investigated the existence of the obesity paradox in outpatients with COPD by examining the effect of body mass index (BMI) on 1-year healthcare use and clinical outcome in terms of hospital admission rates, length of hospital stay, outpatient appointments and mortality. BMI was assessed in 424 outpatients with COPD, with measurements performed by specialist respiratory nurses during outpatient clinics. 1-year healthcare use was retrospectively collected from the date of BMI measurement. Abstract S163 Table 1 Patients classified as overweight (25.0–29.9 kg/m2) or obese (>30 kg/m2) experienced significantly fewer emergency hospital admissions, as well as a reduced length of hospital stay, in comparison to normal weight (20.0–24.9 kg/m2) or underweight (<20 kg/m2) outpatients. There was a significant negative trend between BMI classification and mortality. This study supports the existence of the ‘obesity paradox’ in COPD, not only in relation to reduced 1 year mortality rates but also in terms of reduced emergency hospital admissions and reduced length of hospital stay.

P147 Deprivation is associated with increased healthcare utilisation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Deprivation assessed using the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) has been shown to be an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; COPD (Collins et al, 2010). IMD combines a number of economic and social issues (eg, health, education, employment) into one overall deprivation score, the higher the score the higher an individual's deprivation. Whilst malnutrition in COPD has been linked to increased healthcare use it is not clear if deprivation is also independently associated. This study aimed to investigate the influence of deprivation on 1-year healthcare utilisation in outpatients with COPD. IMD was established in 424 outpatients with COPD according to the geographical location for each patient's address (postcode) and related to their healthcare use in the year post-date screened (Nobel et al, 2008). Patients were routinely screened in outpatient clinics for malnutrition using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’, ‘MUST’ (Elia 2003); mean age 73 (SD 9.9) years; body mass index 25.8 (SD 6.3) kg/m2 with healthcare use collected 1 year from screening (Abstract P147 Table 1). Deprivation assessed using IMD (mean 15.9; SD 11.1) was found to be a significant predictor for the frequency and duration of emergency hospital admissions as well as the duration of elective hospital admission. Deprivation was also linked to reduced secondary care outpatient appointment attendance but not an increase in failure to attend and deprivation was not associated with increased disease severity, as classified by the GOLD criteria (p=0.580). COPD outpatients residing in more deprived areas experience increased hospitalisation rates but decreased outpatient appointment attendance. The underlying reason behind this disparity in healthcare use requires further investigation.