Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The missing link of crime analysis: A systematic approach to testing competing hypotheses

Crime analysts have traditionally received little guidance from academic researchers in key tasks in the analysis process, specifically the testing of multiple hypotheses and evaluating evidence in a scientific fashion. This article attempts to fill this gap by outlining a method (the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses) of systematically analysing multiple explanations for crime problems. The method is systematic, avoids many cognitive errors common in analysis, and is explicit. It is argued that the implementation of this approach makes analytic products audit-able, the reasoning underpinning them transparent, and provides intelligence managers a rational professional development tool for individual analysts.

Chronic disease risks and use of a smartphone application during a physical activity and dietary intervention in Australian truck drivers

- Objective This study examined chronic disease risks and the use of a smartphone activity tracking application during an intervention in Australian truck drivers (April-October 2014). - Methods Forty-four men (mean age=47.5 [SD 9.8] years) completed baseline health measures, and were subsequently offered access to a free wrist-worn activity tracker and smartphone application (Jawbone UP) to monitor step counts and dietary choices during a 20-week intervention. Chronic disease risks were evaluated against guidelines; weekly step count and dietary logs registered by drivers in the application were analysed to evaluate use of the Jawbone UP. - Results Chronic disease risks were high (e.g. 97% high waist circumference [≥94 cm]). Eighteen drivers (41%) did not start the intervention; smartphone technical barriers were the main reason for drop out. Across 20-weeks, drivers who used the Jawbone UP logged step counts for an average of 6 [SD 1] days/week; mean step counts remained consistent across the intervention (weeks 1–4=8,743[SD 2,867] steps/day; weeks 17–20=8,994[SD 3,478] steps/day). The median number of dietary logs significantly decreased from start (17 [IQR 38] logs/weeks) to end of the intervention (0 [IQR 23] logs/week; p<0.01); the median proportion of healthy diet choices relative to total diet choices logged increased across the intervention (weeks 1–4=38[IQR 21]%; weeks 17–20=58[IQR 18]%). - Conclusions Step counts were more successfully monitored than dietary choices in those drivers who used the Jawbone UP. - Implications Smartphone technology facilitated active living and healthy dietary choices, but also prohibited intervention engagement in a number of these high-risk Australian truck drivers.

Comparing population attributable risks for heart disease across the adult lifespan in women

Background Recent estimates suggest that high body mass index (BMI), smoking, high blood pressure (BP) and physical inactivity are leading risk factors for the overall burden of disease in Australia. The aim was to examine the population attributable risk (PAR) of heart disease for each of these risk factors, across the adult lifespan in Australian women. Methods PARs were estimated using relative risks (RRs) for each of the four risk factors, as used in the Global Burden of Disease Study, and prevalence estimates from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, in 15 age groups from 22–27 (N=9608) to 85–90 (N=3901). Results RRs and prevalence estimates varied across the lifespan. RRs ranged from 6.15 for smoking in the younger women to 1.20 for high BMI and high BP in the older women. Prevalence of risk exposure ranged from 2% for high BP in the younger women to 79% for high BMI in mid-age women. In young adult women up to age 30, the highest population risk was attributed to smoking. From age 31 to 90, PARs were highest for physical inactivity. Conclusions From about age 30, the population risk of heart disease attributable to inactivity outweighs that of other risk factors, including high BMI. Programmes for the promotion and maintenance of physical activity deserve to be a much higher public health priority for women than they are now, across the adult lifespan.

Response: Special communication: Letters to the Editor-in-Chief [Vigorous exercise in clinical practice: balancing risks and benefits]

The effects of different exercise intensities on health have been investigated in several studies in recent years, in which some authors showed greater benefits for vigorous exercise (6) while others did not find any differences (8). An important issue regarding these conflicting results could be the fact that only a few of the studies controlled the effects of different exercise intensities for the overall volume of physical activity, making the evaluation of the available data difficult.

Medication incident reporting in residential aged care facilities: Limitations and risks to residents' safety

Background Medication incident reporting (MIR) is a key safety critical care process in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Retrospective studies of medication incident reports in aged care have identified the inability of existing MIR processes to generate information that can be used to enhance residents’ safety. However, there is little existing research that investigates the limitations of the existing information exchange process that underpins MIR, despite the considerable resources that RACFs’ devote to the MIR process. The aim of this study was to undertake an in-depth exploration of the information exchange process involved in MIR and identify factors that inhibit the collection of meaningful information in RACFs. Methods The study was undertaken in three RACFs (part of a large non-profit organisation) in NSW, Australia. A total of 23 semi-structured interviews and 62 hours of observation sessions were conducted between May to July 2011. The qualitative data was iteratively analysed using a grounded theory approach. Results The findings highlight significant gaps in the design of the MIR artefacts as well as information exchange issues in MIR process execution. Study results emphasized the need to: a) design MIR artefacts that facilitate identification of the root causes of medication incidents, b) integrate the MIR process within existing information systems to overcome key gaps in information exchange execution, and c) support exchange of information that can facilitate a multi-disciplinary approach to medication incident management in RACFs. Conclusions This study highlights the advantages of viewing MIR process holistically rather than as segregated tasks, as a means to identify gaps in information exchange that need to be addressed in practice to improve safety critical processes.

A review of project evaluation methodologies to address net impacts and risks of toll road projects to the community

Project evaluation is a process of measuring costs, benefits, risks and uncertainties for the purpose of decision-making by estimating and assessing impacts of the project to the community. The effects of impacts of toll roads are similar but different from the general non-tolled roads. Project evaluation methodologies are extensively studied and applied to various transport infrastructure projects. However, there is no definitive methodology to evaluate toll roads. This review discusses the impacts of toll roads then reviews the limitations of existing project evaluation methodologies when evaluating toll road impacts. The review identified gaps of knowledge of toll evaluations. First, the treatment of toll in project evaluation, particularly in Cost-Benefit Analysis requires further study to explore the appropriate methodology. Secondly, the project evaluation methodology needs to place strong emphasis on empirically based risk and uncertainty assessment. Addressing the limitations of the existing project evaluation methodologies leads to improvements of the methodology in practical level as well as fills the gap of knowledge of project evaluation for toll roads with respect to net impacts to the community.

Transfer pricing rules and competing governments

The literature on the regulation of multinationals' transfer prices has not considered the possibility that governments may use transfer pricing rules strategically when they compete with other governments. The present paper analyses this case and shows that, even in the absence of agency considerations, a non‐cooperative equilibrium is characterised by above‐optimal levels of effective taxation. We then derive conditions under which harmonization of transfer pricing rules lead to a Pareto improvement, and show that harmonization according to the ‘arm's length’ principle—the form of harmonization advocated by the OECD—may not be Pareto improving.

Performing immobility / protesting immobility: The risks & rewards of public space protest performances

Though there is much interest in mobilities and performing mobilities as a characteristic of modern, urban, social life today, this is not always matched by attention to immobilities, as the flipside of mobility in modern life. In this paper, I investigate public space performances designed to draw attention to precisely this counterpoint to current discourses of mobilities – performances about the socially produced immobilities many people with disabilities find a more fundamental feature of day-to-day life, the fight for mobility, and the freedom found when accommodations for alternative mobilities are made available. Although public policy is increasingly aligned with a social model of disability, which sees disability as socially constructed through systems, institutions and infrastructure deliberately designed to exclude specific bodies – stairs, curbs, queues and so forth – and although governments in the US, UK, and to a lesser degree Australia, New Zealand and other Commonwealth nations aim to address these inequalities, the experience of immobility is still every-present for many people. This often comes not just from pain, or from impairment, or event from lack of accommodations for alternative mobilities, but from fellow social performers’ antipathy to, appropriation of, or destruction of accommodations designed to facilitate access for a range of different bodies in public space, and thus the public sphere. The archetypal instance of this tension between the mobile, and those needing accommodations to allow mobility, is, of course, the antipathy many able bodied people feel towards the provision of disabled parking spaces. A cursory search online shows thousands of accounts of antagonism, vitriol, and even violence prompted by disputes which began when a disabled person asked an able person to exit a designated disabled parking space. For many, it seems, expecting them to pass by such parks so others can experience the mobility they take for granted is too much. In this paper, I examine a number of protest performances in public space in which activist present actions – for example, placing wheelchairs in every regular parking space in a precinct – to give bystanders, passersby and spectators, as well as antagonistic fellow social performers, a sense of what socially produced immobility feels like. I examine responses to such protest performances, and what they say about the potential social, political and ethical impacts of such protests, in terms of their potential to produce new attitudes to mobility, alternative mobility, and access to alternative modes of mobility.

No evidence for association of ataxia-telangiectasia mutated gene T2119C and C3161G amino acid substitution variants with risk of breast cancer

Background There is evidence that certain mutations in the double-strand break repair pathway ataxia-telangiectasia mutated gene act in a dominant-negative manner to increase the risk of breast cancer. There are also some reports to suggest that the amino acid substitution variants T2119C Ser707Pro and C3161G Pro1054Arg may be associated with breast cancer risk. We investigate the breast cancer risk associated with these two nonconservative amino acid substitution variants using a large Australian population-based case–control study. Methods The polymorphisms were genotyped in more than 1300 cases and 600 controls using 5' exonuclease assays. Case–control analyses and genotype distributions were compared by logistic regression. Results The 2119C variant was rare, occurring at frequencies of 1.4 and 1.3% in cases and controls, respectively (P = 0.8). There was no difference in genotype distribution between cases and controls (P = 0.8), and the TC genotype was not associated with increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.08, 95% confidence interval = 0.59–1.97, P = 0.8). Similarly, the 3161G variant was no more common in cases than in controls (2.9% versus 2.2%, P = 0.2), there was no difference in genotype distribution between cases and controls (P = 0.1), and the CG genotype was not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 0.85–1.98, P = 0.2). This lack of evidence for an association persisted within groups defined by the family history of breast cancer or by age. Conclusion The 2119C and 3161G amino acid substitution variants are not associated with moderate or high risks of breast cancer in Australian women.

Assessing health risk associated with airborne polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons by chemometrics and toxic equivalency factors

Some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous in air and have been implicated as carcinogenic materials. Therefore, literature is replete with studies that are focused on their occurrence and profiles in indoor and outdoor air samples. However, because the relative potency of individual PAHs vary widely, health risks associated with the presence of PAHs in a particular environment cannot be extrapolated directly from the concentrations of individual PAHs in that environment. In addition, database on the potency of PAH mixtures is currently limited. In this paper, we have utilized multi-criteria decision making methods (MCDMs) to simultaneously correlate PAH-related health risk in some microenvironments to the concentration levels, ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity induction equivalency factors and toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) of PAHs found in those microenvironments. The results showed that the relative risk associated with PAHs in different air samples depends on the index used. Nevertheless, this approach offers a promising tool that could help identify microenvironments of concern and assist the prioritisation of control strategies.