Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

How can soil monitoring networks be used to improve predictions of organic carbon pool dynamics and CO2 fluxes in agricultural soils?

Abstract As regional and continental carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems become available, it becomes clear that the soils are the largest source of uncertainty. Repeated inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) organized in soil monitoring networks (SMN) are being implemented in a number of countries. This paper reviews the concepts and design of SMNs in ten countries, and discusses the contribution of such networks to reducing the uncertainty of soil carbon balances. Some SMNs are designed to estimate country-specific land use or management effects on SOC stocks, while others collect soil carbon and ancillary data to provide a nationally consistent assessment of soil carbon condition across the major land-use/soil type combinations. The former use a single sampling campaign of paired sites, while for the latter both systematic (usually grid based) and stratified repeated sampling campaigns (5–10 years interval) are used with densities of one site per 10–1,040 km². For paired sites, multiple samples at each site are taken in order to allow statistical analysis, while for the single sites, composite samples are taken. In both cases, fixed depth increments together with samples for bulk density and stone content are recommended. Samples should be archived to allow for re-measurement purposes using updated techniques. Information on land management, and where possible, land use history should be systematically recorded for each site. A case study of the agricultural frontier in Brazil is presented in which land use effect factors are calculated in order to quantify the CO2 fluxes from national land use/management conversion matrices. Process-based SOC models can be run for the individual points of the SMN, provided detailed land management records are available. These studies are still rare, as most SMNs have been implemented recently or are in progress. Examples from the USA and Belgium show that uncertainties in SOC change range from 1.6–6.5 Mg C ha−1 for the prediction of SOC stock changes on individual sites to 11.72 Mg C ha−1 or 34% of the median SOC change for soil/land use/climate units. For national SOC monitoring, stratified sampling sites appears to be the most straightforward attribution of SOC values to units with similar soil/land use/climate conditions (i.e. a spatially implicit upscaling approach). Keywords Soil monitoring networks - Soil organic carbon - Modeling - Sampling design

Cholesterol enhances phospholipid-dependent activated protein C anticoagulant activity

The influence of cholesterol on activated protein C (APC) anticoagulant activity in plasma and on factor Va inactivation was investigated. Anticoagulant and procoagulant activities of phosphatidylcholine/phosphatidylserine (PC/PS) vesicles containing cholesterol were assessed in the presence and absence of APC using factor Xa-1-stage clotting and factor Va inactivation assays. Cholesterol at approximate physiological membrane levels (30%) in PC/PS (60%/10% w/w) vesicles prolonged the factor Xa-1-stage clotting time dose-dependently in the presence of APC but not in the absence of APC. APC-mediated cleavage of purified recombinant factor Va variants that were modified at specific APC cleavage sites (Q306/Q679-factor Va; Q506/Q679-factor Va) was studied to define the effects of cholesterol on APC cleavage at R506 and R306. When compared to control PC/PS vesicles, cholesterol in PC/PS vesicles enhanced factor Va inactivation and the rate of APC cleavage at both R506 and R306. Cholesterol also enhanced APC cleavage rates at R306 in the presence of the APC cofactor, protein S. In summary, APC anticoagulant activity in plasma and factor Va inactivation as a result of cleavages at R506 and R306 by APC is markedly enhanced by cholesterol in phospholipid vesicles. These results suggest that cholesterol in a membrane surface may selectively enhance APC activities. © 2005 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

A comparison of the effects of a chlamydial vaccine administered during or after a C. muridarum urogenital infection of female mice

There are approximately 92 million new chlamydial infections of the genital tract in humans diagnosed each year, costing health care systems billions of dollars in treatment not only of acute infections, but also of associated inflammatory sequelae, such as pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) and ectopic pregnancy. These numbers are increasing at a steady rate and, due to the asymptomatic nature of infections, the incidence may be underestimated and the costs of treatment therefore higher. Over the previous few decades there has been a large amount of research into the development of an efficacious vaccine against genital tract chlamydial infections. The majority of this research has focused on females, due to the high rate of development of associated diseases, including PID, which can lead to ectopic pregnancy and infertility. In light of the increasing infection rates that have occurred despite the availability of antibiotics, and the asymptomatic nature of chlamydial infections, it is imperative that an efficacious vaccine that protects against infection and associated pathology be developed.

Correction to “The Importance of Convexity in Learning With Squared Loss” [Sep 98 1974-1980]

The paper "the importance of convexity in learning with squared loss" gave a lower bound on the sample complexity of learning with quadratic loss using a nonconvex function class. The proof contains an error. We show that the lower bound is true under a stronger condition that holds for many cases of interest.

Natural convection boundary-layer adjacent to an inclined flat plate subject to sudden and ramp heating

The natural convection thermal boundary layer adjacent to an inclined flat plate subject to sudden heating and a temperature boundary condition which follows a ramp function up until a specified time and then remains constant is investigated. The development of the flow from start-up to a steady-state has been described based on scaling analyses and verified by numerical simulations. Different flow regimes based on the Rayleigh number are discussed with numerical results for both boundary conditions. For ramp heating, the boundary layer flow depends on the comparison of the time at which the ramp heating is completed and the time at which the boundary layer completes its growth. If the ramp time is long compared with the steady state time, the layer reaches a quasi steady mode in which the growth of the layer is governed solely by the thermal balance between convection and conduction. On the other hand, if the ramp is completed before the layer becomes steady; the subsequent growth is governed by the balance between buoyancy and inertia, as for the case of instantaneous heating.

Natural convection in attic-shaped spaces subject to sudden and ramp heating boundary conditions

In this study, a discussion of the fluid dynamics in the attic space is reported, focusing on its transient response to sudden and linear changes of temperature along the two inclined walls. The transient behaviour of an attic space is relevant to our daily life. The instantaneous and non-instantaneous (ramp) heating boundary condition is applied on the sloping walls of the attic space. A theoretical understanding of the transient behaviour of the flow in the enclosure is performed through scaling analysis. A proper identification of the timescales, the velocity and the thickness relevant to the flow that develops inside the cavity makes it possible to predict theoretically the basic flow features that will survive once the thermal flow in the enclosure reaches a steady state. A time scale for the heating-up of the whole cavity together with the heat transfer scales through the inclined walls has also been obtained through scaling analysis. All scales are verified by the numerical simulations.

Natural convection and heat transfer in attics subject to periodic thermal forcing

The heat transfer through the attics of buildings under realistic thermal forcing has been considered in this study. A periodic temperature boundary condition is applied on the sloping walls of the attic to show the basic flow features in the attic space over diurnal cycles. The numerical results reveal that, during the daytime heating stage, the flow in the attic space is stratified; whereas at the night-time cooling stage, the flow becomes unstable. A symmetrical solution is seen for relatively low Rayleigh numbers. However, as the Ra gradually increases, a transition occurs at a critical value of Ra. Above this critical value, an asymmetrical solution exhibiting a pitchfork bifurcation arises at the night-time. It is also found that the calculated heat transfer rate at the night-time cooling stage is much higher than that during the daytime heating stage.

On the natural convection boundary layer adjacent to an inclined flat plate subject to ramp heating

An investigation of the natural convection boundary layer adjacent to an inclined semi-infinite plate subject to a temperature boundary condition which follows a ramp function up until some specified time and then remains constant is reported. The development of the flow from start-up to a steadystate has been described based on scaling analyses and verified by numerical simulations. Attention in this study has been given to fluids having a Prandtl number Pr less than unity. The boundary layer flow depends on the comparison of the time at which the ramp heating is completed and the time at which the boundary layer completes its growth. If the ramp time is long compared with the steady state time, the layer reaches a quasi steady mode in which the growth of the layer is governed solely by the thermal balance between convection and conduction. On the other hand, if the ramp is completed before the layer becomes steady; the subsequent growth is governed by the balance between buoyancy and inertia, as for the case of instantaneous heating.

Scaling of thermo-magnetic convection

The scaling to characterize unsteady boundary layer development for thermo-magnetic convection of paramagnetic fluids with the Prandtl number greater than one is developed. Under the consideration is a square cavity with initially quiescent isothermal fluid placed in microgravity condition (g = 0) and subject to a uniform, vertical gradient magnetic field. A distinct magnetic thermal-boundary layer is produced by sudden imposing of a higher temperature on the vertical sidewall and as an effect of magnetic body force generated on paramagnetic fluid. The transient flow behavior of the resulting boundary layer is shown to be described by three stages: the start-up stage, the transitional stage and the steady state. The scaling is verified by numerical simulations with the magnetic momentum parameter m variation and the parameter γRa variation.