Effects of variance-function misspecification in analysis of longitudinal data

The approach of generalized estimating equations (GEE) is based on the framework of generalized linear models but allows for specification of a working matrix for modeling within-subject correlations. The variance is often assumed to be a known function of the mean. This article investigates the impacts of misspecifying the variance function on estimators of the mean parameters for quantitative responses. Our numerical studies indicate that (1) correct specification of the variance function can improve the estimation efficiency even if the correlation structure is misspecified; (2) misspecification of the variance function impacts much more on estimators for within-cluster covariates than for cluster-level covariates; and (3) if the variance function is misspecified, correct choice of the correlation structure may not necessarily improve estimation efficiency. We illustrate impacts of different variance functions using a real data set from cow growth.

Working correlation structure misspecification, estimation and covariate design: Implications for generalised estimating equations performance

The method of generalised estimating equations for regression modelling of clustered outcomes allows for specification of a working matrix that is intended to approximate the true correlation matrix of the observations. We investigate the asymptotic relative efficiency of the generalised estimating equation for the mean parameters when the correlation parameters are estimated by various methods. The asymptotic relative efficiency depends on three-features of the analysis, namely (i) the discrepancy between the working correlation structure and the unobservable true correlation structure, (ii) the method by which the correlation parameters are estimated and (iii) the 'design', by which we refer to both the structures of the predictor matrices within clusters and distribution of cluster sizes. Analytical and numerical studies of realistic data-analysis scenarios show that choice of working covariance model has a substantial impact on regression estimator efficiency. Protection against avoidable loss of efficiency associated with covariance misspecification is obtained when a 'Gaussian estimation' pseudolikelihood procedure is used with an AR(1) structure.

Estimating equations for removal data analysis

We consider the problem of estimating a population size from successive catches taken during a removal experiment and propose two estimating functions approaches, the traditional quasi-likelihood (TQL) approach for dependent observations and the conditional quasi-likelihood (CQL) approach using the conditional mean and conditional variance of the catch given previous catches. Asymptotic covariance of the estimates and the relationship between the two methods are derived. Simulation results and application to the catch data from smallmouth bass show that the proposed estimating functions perform better than other existing methods, especially in the presence of overdispersion.

Gittins indices and constrained allocation in clinical trials

We explore the use of Gittins indices to search for near optimality in sequential clinical trials. Some adaptive allocation rules are proposed to achieve the following two objectives as far as possible: (i) to reduce the expected successes lost, (ii) to minimize the error probability at the end. Simulation results indicate the merits of the rules based on Gittins indices for small trial sizes. The rules are generalized to the case when neither of the response densities is known. Asymptotic optimality is derived for the constrained rules. A simple allocation rule is recommended for one-stage models. The simulation results indicate that it works better than both equal allocation and Bather's randomized allocation. We conclude with a discussion of possible further developments.

A novel approach to 6-DOF adaptive trajectory tracking control of an AUV in the presence of parameter uncertainties

In this paper, the trajectory tracking control of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUVs) in six-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOFs) is addressed. It is assumed that the system parameters are unknown and the vehicle is underactuated. An adaptive controller is proposed, based on Lyapunov׳s direct method and the back-stepping technique, which interestingly guarantees robustness against parameter uncertainties. The desired trajectory can be any sufficiently smooth bounded curve parameterized by time even if consist of straight line. In contrast with the majority of research in this field, the likelihood of actuators׳ saturation is considered and another adaptive controller is designed to overcome this problem, in which control signals are bounded using saturation functions. The nonlinear adaptive control scheme yields asymptotic convergence of the vehicle to the reference trajectory, in the presence of parametric uncertainties. The stability of the presented control laws is proved in the sense of Lyapunov theory and Barbalat׳s lemma. Efficiency of presented controller using saturation functions is verified through comparing numerical simulations of both controllers.

Characterisation of the efficacy of endodontic medications using a three-dimensional fluorescent tooth model: An ex vivo study

The purpose of this study was to establish a three-dimensional fluorescent tooth model to investigate bacterial viability against intra-canal medicaments across the thickness and surface of root dentine. Dental microbial biofilms (Enterococcus faecalis and Streptococcus mutans) were established on the external root surface and bacterial kill was monitored over time against intra-canal medicament (Ca(OH)2 ) using fluorescent microscopy in conjunction with BacLight SYTO9 and propidium iodide stains. An Olympus digital camera fitted to SZX16 fluorescent microscope captured images of bacterial cells in biofilms on the external root surface. Viability of biofilm was measured by calculating the total pixel area of green (viable bacteria) and red (non-viable bacteria) for each image using ImageJ® software. All data generated were assessed for normality and then analysed using a Mann-Whitney t-test. The viability of S. mutans biofilm following Ca(OH)2 treatment showed a significant decline compared with the untreated group (P = 0.0418). No significant difference was seen for E. faecalis biofilm between the Ca(OH)2 and untreated groups indicating Ca(OH)2 medicament is ineffective against E. faecalis biofilm. This novel three-dimensional fluorescent biofilm model provides a new clinically relevant tool for testing of medicaments against dental biofilms.

Equilibrium studies of ammonium exchange with Australian natural zeolites

This paper is concerned with the study of the equilibrium exchange of ammonium ions with two natural zeolite samples sourced in Australia from Castle Mountain Zeolites and Zeolite Australia. A range of sorption models including Langmuir Vageler, Competitive Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, Dubinin Astakhov and Brouers–Sotolongo were applied in order to gain an insight as to the exchange process. In contrast to most previous studies, non-linear regression was used in all instances to determine the best fit of the experimental data. Castle Mountain natural zeolite was found to exhibit higher ammonium capacity than Zeolite Australia material when in the freshly received state, and this behavior was related to the greater amount of sodium ions present relative to calcium ions on the zeolite exchange sites. The zeolite capacity for ammonium ions was also found to be dependent on the solution normality, with 35–60% increase inuptake noted when increasing the ammonium concentration from 250 to 1000 mg/L. The optimal fit ofthe equilibrium data was achieved by the Freundlich expression as confirmed by use of Akaikes Information Criteria. It was emphasized that the bottle-point method chosen influenced the isotherm profile in several ways, and could lead to misleading interpretation of experiments, especially if the constant zeolite mass approach was followed. Pre-treatment of natural zeolite with acid and subsequently sodium hydroxide promoted the uptake of ammonium species by at least 90%. This paper highlighted the factors which should be taken into account when investigating ammonium ion exchange with natural zeolites.

A curve shortening flow rule for closed embedded plane curves with a prescribed rate of change in enclosed area

Motivated by a problem from fluid mechanics, we consider a generalization of the standard curve shortening flow problem for a closed embedded plane curve such that the area enclosed by the curve is forced to decrease at a prescribed rate. Using formal asymptotic and numerical techniques, we derive possible extinction shapes as the curve contracts to a point, dependent on the rate of decreasing area; we find there is a wider class of extinction shapes than for standard curve shortening, for which initially simple closed curves are always asymptotically circular. We also provide numerical evidence that self-intersection is possible for non-convex initial conditions, distinguishing between pinch-off and coalescence of the curve interior.

Tied aid, unemployment and welfare

The effect of foreign aid on the welfare levels of both the recipient and the donor country has been a much analysed topic for research in both the theory of international trade and development economics. In the development economics literature, concerns have been raised since the 1960s on the possible adverse effect of foreign aid on domestic savings and growth.1 The trade theory literature in this respect is much older and dates back to the 1920s when Professors Keynes and Ohlin debated on the effect of foreign aid on international terms of trade.2 Ever since, the terms of trade effect has been the cornerstone in the analysis of the welfare effect of foreign aid in the trade theory literature.3 After some early confusion, it is now well established that in a Walrasian stable world economy with two countries, a necessary condition for foreign aid to have perverse effects is that there is some distortion in either of the two countries.4 It is also known that, under normality and substitutability of goods, untied aid cannot be strictly Pareto-improving in a tariff distorted world.5

A discourse of ‘abnormality’: Exploring discussions of people living in Australia with a deafness or hearing loss

Adopting a social constructionist framework, the authors conducted a synthetic discourse analysis to explore how people living in Australia with deafness construct their experience of deafness. An online forum facilitated access and communication between the lead author and 24 widely dispersed and linguistically diverse forum contributors. The authors discuss the productive and restrictive effects of the emergent discourse of deafness as abnormal and the rhetorical strategies mobilized in people’s accounts: fitting in, acceptance as permission to be different, and the need to prove normality. Using these strategies was productive in that the forum respondents were enabled to reposition deafness as a positive, socially valued identity position. However, the need to manage deafness was reproduced as an individual concern, disallowing any exploration of how deafness could be reconstructed as socially valued. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of the deafness as abnormal discourse.

Bayesian estimation of small effects in exercise and sports science

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a ‘magnitude-based inference’ approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.