Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Appendix 8: Quantifying the effects of environmental factors on catch rates in South-East fisheries: 1986-2006

The collection of basic environmental data by industry members was successful and offers a way of overcoming the problems associated with differences in scale between the environment and fisheries datasets. A simple method of collecting environmental data was developed that was only a small time burden on skippers, yet has the potential to provide very useful information on the same scale as the catch and effort data recorded in the logbooks. The success of this trial was aided by the natural interest of fishers to learn more about the environment in which they fish. The archival temperature-depth tags chosen proved robust, reliable and easy to use. While the use of large scale environmental data may not yield significant improvements in stock assessments for most SESSF species, fine-scale data collected from selected vessels using methods developed during this project may, in the longer term, be useful for incorporation into CPUE standardisations in the future...

A workplace-based Participatory Action Research project to investigate the effectiveness of nutrition and physical activity interventions for truck drivers in six Queensland transport industry workplaces: 2012-2015

The Queensland Transport Industry Workplace Health Intervention project was a Participatory Action Research (PAR) project to investigate the effectiveness of workplace-based nutrition and physical activity health promotion interventions for truck drivers in transport industry workplaces in south-east Queensland. The project was conducted by a research team at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT), and was funded by the Queensland Government under the Healthier.Happier.Workplaces initiative.

Estimating the potential impact of entry fees for marine parks on dive tourism in South East Asia

Marine reserves are increasingly being established as a mechanism to protect marine biodiversity and sensitive habitats. As well as providing conservation benefits, marine reserves provide benefits to recreational scuba divers who dive within the reserve, as well as to recreational and commercial fishers outside the reserve through spill-over effects. To ensure benefits are being realised, management of marine reserves requires ongoing monitoring and surveillance. These are not costless, and many marine reserve managers impose an entry fee. In some countries, dive tourism is major income source to coastal industries, and a concern is that high entry fees may dissuade divers. In this paper, the price elasticity of demand for dive tourism in three countries in South East Asia – Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia – is estimated using a travel-cost model. From the model, the total non-market use value associated with diving in the area is estimated to be in the order of US$4.5 billion a year. The price elasticity of demand in the region is highly inelastic, such that increasing the cost of diving through a management levy would have little impact on total diver numbers.

Monitoring temporal changes in use of two cathinones in a large urban catchment in Queensland, Australia

Wastewater analysis was used to examine prevalence and temporal trends in the use of two cathinones, methylone and mephedrone, in an urban population (>200,000 people) in South East Queensland, Australia. Wastewater samples were collected from the inlet of the sewage treatment plant that serviced the catchment from 2011 to 2013. Liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used to measure mephedrone and methylone in wastewater sample using direct injection mode. Mephedrone was not detected in any samples while methylone was detected in 45% of the samples. Daily mass loads of methylone were normalized to the population and used to evaluate methylone use in the catchment. Methylone mass loads peaked in 2012 but there was no clear temporal trend over the monitoring period. The prevalence of methylone use in the catchment was associated with the use of MDMA, the more popular analogue of methylone, as indicated by other complementary sources. Methylone use was stable in the study catchment during the monitoring period whereas mephedrone use has been declining after its peak in 2010. More research is needed on the pharmacokinetics of emerging illicit drugs to improve the applicability of wastewater analysis in monitoring their use in the population.

Teachers’ understandings of their relationships with students : pedagogic connectedness

This paper reports on a doctoral study that explored the nature of pedagogic connectedness and revealed the ways in which teachers experience this phenomenon. Pedagogic connectedness is defined as the engagements between teacher and student that impact on student learning. In this study, twenty teachers in an independent college in South-East Queensland, Australia, were interviewed and the interview transcripts analysed iteratively. Five qualitatively different ways of experiencing pedagogic connectedness emerged from the data. The findings of this phenomenographic-related study are instructive in developing a framework for changes to teachers’ pedagogic practices.

Effects of fare collection policy on operating characteristics of a Brisbane busway station

Transit agencies across the world are increasingly shifting their fare collection mechanisms towards fully automated systems like the smart card. One of the objectives in implementing such a system is to reduce the boarding time per passenger and hence reduce the overall dwell time for the buses at the bus stops/bus rapid transit (BRT) stations. TransLink, the transit authority responsible for public transport management in South East Queensland, has introduced ‘GoCard’ technology using the Cubic platform for fare collection on its public transport system. In addition to this, three inner city BRT stations on South East Busway spine are operating as pre-paid platforms during evening peak time. This paper evaluates the effects of these multiple policy measures on operation of study busway station. The comparison between pre and post policy scenarios suggests that though boarding time per passenger has decreased, while the alighting time per passenger has increased slightly. However, there is a substantial reduction in operating efficiency was observed at the station.

Development of a particle number and particle mass vehicle emissions inventory for an urban fleet

Motor vehicles are major emitters of gaseous and particulate pollution in urban areas, and exposure to particulate pollution can have serious health effects, ranging from respiratory and cardiovascular disease to mortality. Motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions span a broad size range from 0.003-10µm, and are measured as different subsets of particle mass concentrations or particle number count. However, no comprehensive inventories currently exist in the international published literature covering this wide size range. This paper presents the first published comprehensive inventory of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions covering the full size range of particles emitted. The inventory was developed for urban South-East Queensland by combining two techniques from distinctly different disciplines, from aerosol science and transport modelling. A comprehensive set of particle emission factors were combined with traffic modelling, and tailpipe particle emissions were quantified for particle number (ultrafine particles), PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 for light and heavy duty vehicles and buses. A second aim of the paper involved using the data derived in this inventory for scenario analyses, to model the particle emission implications of different proportions of passengers travelling in light duty vehicles and buses in the study region, and to derive an estimate of fleet particle emissions in 2026. It was found that heavy duty vehicles (HDVs) in the study region were major emitters of particulate matter pollution, and although they contributed only around 6% of total regional vehicle kilometres travelled, they contributed more than 50% of the region’s particle number (ultrafine particles) and PM1 emissions. With the freight task in the region predicted to double over the next 20 years, this suggests that HDVs need to be a major focus of mitigation efforts. HDVs dominated particle number (ultrafine particles) and PM1 emissions; and LDV PM2.5 and PM10 emissions. Buses contributed approximately 1-2% of regional particle emissions.

Host searching behaviour of Diachasmimorpha kraussii (Fullaway) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Opiinae), a polyphagous parasitoid of Dacinae fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Diachasmimorpha kraussii (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Opiinae) is a koinobiont larval parasitoid of dacine fruit flies of the genus Bactrocera (Diptera: Tephritidae) in its native range (Australia, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands). The wasp is a potentially important control agent for pest fruit flies, having been considered for both classical and inundative biological control releases. I investigated the host searching, selection and utilisation mechanisms of the wasp against native host flies within its native range (Australia). Such studies are rare in opiine research where the majority of studies, because of the applied nature of the research, have been carried out using host flies and environments which are novel to the wasps. Diachasmimorpha kraussii oviposited equally into maggots of four fruit fly species, all of which coexist with the wasp in its native range (Australia), when tested in a choice trial using a uniform artificial diet media. While eggs laid into Bactrocera tryoni and B. jarvisi developed successfully through to adult wasps, eggs laid into B. cucumis and B. cacuminata were encapsulated. These results suggest that direct larval cues are not an important element in host selection by D. kraussii. Further exploring how D. kraussii locates suitable host larvae, I investigated the role of plant cues in host searching and selection. This was examined in a laboratory choice trial using uninfested fruit or fruit infested with either B. tryoni or B. jarvisi maggots. The results showed a consistent preference ranking among infested fruits by the wasp, with guava and peach most preferred, but with no response to uninfested fruits. Thus, it appears the wasp uses chemical cues emitted in response to fruit fly larval infestation for host location, but does not use cues from uninfested fruits. To further tease apart the role of (i) suitable and non-suitable maggots, (ii) infested and uninfested fruits of different plant species, and (iii) adult flies, in wasp host location and selection, I carried out a series of behavioural tests where I manipulated these attributes in a field cage. These trials confirmed that D. kraussii did not respond to cues in uninfested fruits, that there were consistent preferences by the wasps for different maggot infested fruits, that fruit preference did not vary depending on whether the maggots were physiologically suitable or not suitable for wasp offspring development, and finally, that adult flies appear to play a secondary role as indicators of larval infestation. To investigate wasp behaviour in an unrestrained environment, I concurrently observed diurnal foraging behaviours of both the wasp and one of its host fly in a small nectarine orchard. Wasp behaviour, both spatially and temporally, was not correlated with adult fruit fly behaviour or abundance. This study reinforced the point that infested fruit seems to be the primary cue used by foraging wasps. Wasp and fly feeding and mating was not observed in the orchard, implying these activities are occurring elsewhere. It is highly unlikely that these behaviours were happening within the orchard during the night as both insects are diurnal. As the final component of investigating host location, I carried out a habitat preference study for the wasp at the landscape scale. Using infested sentinel fruits, I tested the parasitism rate of B. tryoni in eucalyptus sclerophyll forest, rainforest and suburbia in South East Queensland. Although, rainforest is the likely endemic habitat of both B. tryoni and D. kraussii, B. tryoni abundance is significantly greater in suburban environments followed by eucalyptus sclerophyll forest. Parasitism rate was found to be higher in suburbia than in the eucalyptus sclerophyll forest, while no parasitism was recorded in the rainforest. This result suggests that wasps orient within the landscape towards areas of high host density and are not restricted by habitat types. Results from the different experiments suggest that host searching, selection and utilisation behaviour of D. kraussii are strongly influenced by cues associated with fruit fly larval feeding. Cues from uninfested fruits, the host larvae themselves, and the adult host flies play minimal roles. The discussion focuses on the fit of D. kraussii to Vinson’s classical parasitoid host location model and the implications of results for biological control, including recommendations for host and plant preference screening protocols and release regimes.

Understanding the psychosocial factors influencing the risky behaviour of young drivers

Young people aged 17–24 years are at high risk of being killed in road crashes around the world. Road safety interventions consider some influences upon young driver behaviour; for example, imposing passenger restrictions on young novice drivers indirectly minimises the potential negative social influences of peers as passengers. To change young driver risky behaviour, the multitude of psychosocial influences upon its initiation and maintenance must be identified. A study questionnaire was developed to investigate the relationships between risky driving and Akers’ social learning theory, social identity theory, and thrill seeking variables. The questionnaire was completed by 165 participants (105 women,60 men) residing in south-east Queensland, Australia. The sociodemographic variables of age, gender, and exposure explained 19% of the variance in self-reported risky driving behaviour, whilst Akers’ social learning variables explained an additional 42%. Thrill seeking and social identity variables did not explain any significant additional variance. Significant predictors of risky driving included imitation of the driving behaviours of, and anticipated rewards and punishments administered by, parents and peers. Road safety policy that directly considers and incorporates these factors in their design, implementation, and enforcement of young driver road safety interventions should prove more efficacious than current approaches.

Can Risk Management boost the supply of Affordable Housing Development and Management?

A shortage of affordable housing is a major problem in Australia today. This is mainly due to the limited supply of affordable housing that is provided by the non-government housing sector. Some private housing developers see the provision of affordable housing for lower income people as a high risk investment which offers a lower return than broader market-based housing. The scarcity of suitable land, a limited government ‘subsidy’, and increasing housing costs have not provided sufficient development incentives to encourage their investment despite the existing high demand for affordable housing. This study analyses the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit housing providers in South East Queensland, and draws conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences. In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment/response in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. These developers use an informal risk management process as part of their normal business process in accordance with industry standards. A simple qualitative matrix has been used to analyse probability and impacts using a qualitative scale - low, medium and high. For housing providers who have considered investing in affordable housing but have not yet implemented any such projects, affordable housing development is seen as an opportunity that needs to be approached with caution. The risks associated with such projects and the levels of acceptance of these are not consistently identified by current housing providers. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. This study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.

Can risk management boost the supply of affordable housing development and management?

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit affordable housing providers in South East Queensland, and draw conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences.----- Design/methodology/approach: In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. Qualitative data are analysed using thematic analysis to find emerging themes suggested by interview participants.----- Findings: The paper finds that informal risk management process is used as part of normal business process in accordance with industry standards. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. The levels of acceptance of risk are not always consistent across housing providers which create opportunities to conduct multi-stakeholder partnership to reduce overall risk.----- Research limitations/implications: The paper has implications for developers or investors who seek to include affordable housing as part of their portfolio. However, data collected in the study are a cross-section of interviews that will not include the impact on recent tax incentives offers by the Australian Commonwealth Government.----- Practical implications: The study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.----- Originality/value: The focus of the study is the interaction between partnerships and risk management in development and management of affordable rental housing.

Age-related differences in exercise and quality of life among breast cancer survivors

Purpose: Physical activity has become a focus of cancer recovery research as it has the potential to reduce treatment-related burden and optimize health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, the potential for physical activity to influence recovery may be age-dependent. This paper describes physical activity levels and HRQoL among younger and older women after surgery for breast cancer and explores the correlates of physical inactivity. Methods: A population-based sample of breast cancer patients diagnosed in South-East Queensland, Australia, (n=287) were assessed once every three months, from 6 to 18 months post-surgery. The Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Breast questionnaire (FACTB+4) and items from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) questionnaire were used to measure HRQoL and physical activity, respectively. Physical activity was assigned metabolic equivalent task (MET) values, and categorized as < 3, 3 to 17.9 and 18+ MET-hours/weeks. Descriptive statistics, generalized linear models with age stratification (<50 years versus 50+ years), and logistic regression were used for analyses (p=0.05, two-tailed). Results: Younger women who engaged in 3 or more MET-hours/week of physical activity reported a higher HRQoL at 18 months compared to their more sedentary counterparts (p<0.05). Older women reported similar HRQoL irrespective of activity level and consistently reported clinically higher HRQoL than younger women. Increasing age, being overweight or obese, and restricting use of the treated side at six months post-surgery increased the likelihood of sedentary behavior (OR>3, p<0.05). Conclusions: Age influences the potential to observe HRQoL benefits related to physical activity participation. These results also provide relevant information for the design of exercise interventions for breast cancer survivors and highlights that some groups of women are at greater risk of long-term sedentary behavior.