Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high blood pressure in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to high blood pressure (BP) in adults aged 30 years and older in South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Mean systolic BP (SBP) estimates by age and sex were obtained from the 1998 South African Demographic and Health Survey adult data. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for the relevant disease categories for South Africa in 2000. Monte Carlo simulation modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa Subjects Adults aged 30 years and older. Outcome measures Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, hypertensive disease and other cardiovascular disease (CVD). Results High BP was estimated to have caused 46 888 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 44 878 - 48 566) or 9% (95% uncertainty interval 8.6 - 9.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000, and 390 860 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 377 955 - 402 256) or 2.4% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 2.3 - 2.5%) in South Africa in 2000. Overall, 50% of stroke, 42% of IHD, 72% of hypertensive disease and 22% of other CVD burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to high BP (systolic BP ≥ 115 mmHg). Conclusions High BP contributes to a considerable burden of CVD in South Africa and results indicate that there is considerable potential for health gain from implementing BP-lowering interventions that are known to be highly costeffective.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to lead exposure in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to lead exposure in South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Recent community studies were used to derive mean blood lead concentrations in adults and children in urban and rural areas. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for the relevant disease categories for South Africa in the year 2000. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa. Subjects Children under 5 and adults 30 years and older. Outcome measures Cardiovascular mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in adults 30 years and older and mild mental disability DALYs in children under 5 years. Results Lead exposure was estimated to cause 1 428 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1 086-1 772) or 0.27% (95% uncertainty interval: 0.21 - 0.34%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Burden of disease attributed to lead exposure was dominated by mild mental disability in young children, accounting for 75% of the total 58 939 (95% uncertainty interval 55 413 - 62 500) attributable DALYs. Cardiovascular disease in adults accounted for the remainder of the burden. Conclusions Even with the phasing out of leaded petrol, exposure to lead from its ongoing addition to paint, paraoccupational exposure and its use in backyard 'cottage industries' will continue to be an important public health hazard in South Africa for decades. Young children, especially those from disadvantaged communities, remain particularly vulnerable to lead exposure and poisoning.

The high burden of injuries in South Africa

Objective To estimate the magnitude and characteristics of the injury burden in South Africa within a global context. Methods The Actuarial Society of South Africa demographic and AIDS model (ASSA 2002) – calibrated to survey, census and adjusted vital registration data – was used to calculate the total number of deaths in 2000. Causes of death were determined from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System profile. Injury death rates and years of life lost (YLL) were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease methodology. National years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by applying a ratio between YLLs and YLDs found in a local injury data source, the Cape Metropole Study. Mortality and disability-adjusted life years’ (DALYs) rates were compared with African and global estimates. Findings Interpersonal violence dominated the South African injury profile with age-standardized mortality rates at seven times the global rate. Injuries were the second-leading cause of loss of healthy life, accounting for 14.3% of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000. Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the leading cause of injury in most regions of the world but South Africa has exceedingly high numbers – double the global rate. Conclusion Injuries are an important public health issue in South Africa. Social and economic determinants of violence, many a legacy of apartheid policies, must be addressed to reduce inequalities in society and build community cohesion. Multisectoral interventions to reduce traffic injuries are also needed. We highlight this heavy burden to stress the need for effective prevention programmes.

Interpersonal violence : an important risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa

Background Burden of disease estimates for South Africa have highlighted the particularly high rates of injuries related to interpersonal violence compared with other regions of the world, but these figures tell only part of the story. In addition to direct physical injury, violence survivors are at an increased risk of a wide range of psychological and behavioral problems. This study aimed to comprehensively quantify the excess disease burden attributable to exposure to interpersonal violence as a risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa. Methods The World Health Organization framework of interpersonal violence was adapted. Physical injury mortality and disability were categorically attributed to interpersonal violence. In addition, exposure to child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence, subcategories of interpersonal violence, were treated as risk factors for disease and injury using counterfactual estimation and comparative risk assessment methods. Adjustments were made to account for the combined exposure state of having experienced both child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence. Results Of the 17 risk factors included in the South African Comparative Risk Assessment study, interpersonal violence was the second leading cause of healthy years of life lost, after unsafe sex, accounting for 1.7 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) or 10.5% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval: 8.5%-12.5%) in 2000. In women, intimate partner violence accounted for 50% and child sexual abuse for 32% of the total attributable DALYs. Conclusions The implications of our findings are that estimates that include only the direct injury burden seriously underrepresent the full health impact of interpersonal violence. Violence is an important direct and indirect cause of health loss and should be recognized as a priority health problem as well as a human rights and social issue. This study highlights the difficulties in measuring the disease burden from interpersonal violence as a risk factor and the need to improve the epidemiological data on the prevalence and risks for the different forms of interpersonal violence to complete the picture. Given the extent of the burden, it is essential that innovative research be supported to identify social policy and other interventions that address both the individual and societal aspects of violence.

Alcohol use in South Africa : findings from the first demographic and health survey (1998)

Objective This study formed part of the 1998 South African Demographic and Health Survey, which included questions assessing the extent of alcohol use, risky drinking and alcohol problems among South Africans to obtain up-to-date baseline estimates of consumption and risky drinking and to inform intervention efforts. Method A two-stage random sample of 13,826 persons ages 15 or older (59% women) was included in the survey. Alcohol use was assessed through eight questions, including the CAGE questionnaire. Frequency analyses for different age groups, geographic setting, education level, population group and gender were calculated, as were odds ratios for these variables in relation to symptoms of alcohol problems. Results Current alcohol consumption was reported by 45% of the men and 17% of the women. White men (71%) were most likely and Asian women (9%) least likely to be current drinkers. Urban residents were more likely than nonurban dwellers to report current drinking. One third of the current drinkers reported risky drinking over weekends, and 28% of the men and 10% of the women scored above the cutoff level on the CAGE questionnaire. Symptoms of alcohol problems were significantly associated with lower socioeconomic status, no school education in women and being older than 25 years of age. Conclusions A comprehensive strategy is required to address the high levels of risky drinking and reported symptoms of alcohol problems.

Poverty and non-communicable diseases in South Africa

Background: High levels of wealth inequality with improved health statistics in South Africa (SA) provide an important opportunity to investigate non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among the poor. Aims: This paper uses two distinct national data sets to contrast patterns of mortality in rich and poor areas and explore the associations between poverty, risk factors, health care and selected NCDs diseases in South African adults. Methods: Causes of premature mortality in 1996 experienced in the poorest magisterial districts are compared with those in the richest, using average household wealth to classify districts. Logistic and multinomial regression are used to investigate the association of a household asset index and selected chronic conditions, related risk factors and healthcare indicators using data from the 1998 South African Demographic and Health Survey. Results: NCDs accounted for 39% and 33% of premature mortality in rich and poor districts respectively. The household survey data showed that the risk factors hypertension and obesity increased with increasing wealth, while most of the lifestyle factors, such as light smoking, domestic exposure to ``smoky'' fuels and alcohol dependence were associated with poverty. Treatment status for hypertension and asthma was worse for poor people than for rich people. Conclusions: The study suggests that NCDs and lifestyle-related risk factors are prevalent among the poor in SA and treatment for chronic diseases is lacking for poor people. The observed increase in hypertension and obesity with wealth suggests that unless comprehensive health promotion strategies are implemented, there will be an unmanageable chronic disease epidemic with future socioeconomic development in SA.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to low fruit and vegetable intake in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributed to low fruit and vegetable intake by sex and age group in South Africa for the year 2000. Design The analysis follows the World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology. Populationattributable fractions were calculated from South African prevalence data from dietary surveys and applied to the revised South African burden of disease estimates for 2000. A theoretical maximum distribution of 600 g per day for fruit and vegetable intake was chosen. Monte Carlo simulationmodelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa. Subjects Adults ≥ 15 years. Outcome measures Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, lung cancer, gastric cancer, colorectal cancer and oesophageal cancer. Results Low fruit and vegetable intake accounted for 3.2% of total deaths and 1.1% of the 16.2 million attributable DALYs. For both males and females the largest proportion of total years of healthy life lost attributed to low fruit and vegetable intake was for ischaemic heart disease (60.6% and 52.2%, respectively). Ischaemic stroke accounted for 17.8% of attributable DALYs for males and 32.7% for females. For the related cancers, the leading attributable DALYs for men and women were oesophageal cancer (9.8% and 7.0%, respectively) and lung cancer (7.8% and 4.7%, respectively). Conclusions A high intake of fruit and vegetables can make a significant contribution to decreasing mortality from certain diseases. The challenge lies in creating the environment that facilitates changes in dietary habits such as the increased intake of fruit and vegetables.

The spectrum of HIV-1 related cancers in South Africa

Despite the high prevalence of infection by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in South Africa, information on its association with cancer is sparse. Our study was carried out to examine the relationship between HIV and a number of cancer types or sites that are common in South Africa. A total of 4,883 subjects, presenting with a cancer or cardiovascular disease at the 3 tertiary referral hospitals in Johannesburg, were interviewed and had blood tested for HIV. Odds ratios associated with HIV infection were calculated by using unconditional logistic regression models for 16 major cancer types where data was available for 50 or more patients. In the comparison group, the prevalence of HIV infection was 8.3% in males and 9.1% in females. Significant excess risks associated with HIV infection were found for Kaposi's sarcoma (OR=21.9, 95% CI=12.5–38.6), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (OR=5.0, 95%CI=2.7–9.5), vulval cancer (OR=4.8, 95%CI=1.9–12.2) and cervical cancer (OR=1.6, 95%CI=1.1–2.3) but not for any of the other major cancer types examined, including Hodgkin disease, multiple myeloma and lung cancer. In Johannesburg, South Africa, HIV infection was associated with significantly increased risks of Kaposi's sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and cancers of the cervix and the vulva. The relative risks for Kaposi's sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma associated with HIV infection were substantially lower than those found in the West.

The use of prescribed drugs for common chronic conditions in South Africa in 1998

Purpose To determine the prescribed drug-utilisation pattern for six common chronic conditions in adult South Africans in a cross-sectional survey. Methods 13 826 randomly selected participants, 15 years and older, were surveyed by trained fieldworkers at their homes in 1998. Questionnaires included socio-demographic, chronic-disease and drug-use data. The prescribed drugs were recorded from participants' medication containers. The Anatomical Therapeutic Classification (ATC) code of the drugs for tuberculosis (TB), diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, other atherosclerosis-related conditions, such as heart conditions or cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), and asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), was recorded. The use of logistic regression analyses identified the determinants of those patients who used prescription medication for these six conditions. Results 18.4% of the women and 12.5% of the men used drugs for the six chronic conditions. Men used drugs most frequently for hypertension (50.9%) and asthma or chronic bronchitis (24.3%), while in women it was for hypertension (59.9%) and diabetes (17.5%). The logistic regression analyses showed that women, wealthier and older people, and those with medical insurance used these chronic-disease drugs more frequently compared to men, younger or poor people, or those without medical insurance. The African population group used these drugs less frequently than any other ethnic group. The inappropriate use of methyldopa was found for 14.8% of all antihypertensive drugs, while very few people used aspirin. Conclusions The methodology of this study provides a means of ascertaining the chronic-disease drug-utilisation pattern in national health surveys. The pattern described, suggests an inequitable use of chronic-disease drugs and inadequate use of some effective drugs to control the burden of chronic diseases in South Africa. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

'It's Africa. It's Arizona. It's Antarctica. It's Afghanistan. Actually, it's Alberta' : Marketing locations to film producers

This chapter begins by outlining the dynamics of contemporary international film production and the inherent tension between ‘design interest’ and ‘location interest’. A history of the promotion of particular places as filmmaking locations (including Hollywood) is presented, prior to the establishment of the first film commissions. The creation of international associations and their role in professionalization, norm setting and the standardization of offerings and activities, is then described. The chapter concludes with a discussion of commissions’ work, the emergent discourse of ‘film friendliness,’ and the differences between location marketing and other kinds of destination marketing.

The largest admitted IT project failure in the Southern Hemisphere: A teaching case

The Queensland Health implementation project failure is the largest IS failure in the southern hemisphere to date, costing $1.25 billion AUD. This case highlights the importance of systematically analysing project failure. It examines the case organization details, royal commission report, auditor general report and 118 witness statements pertaining to the Queensland Health implementation project. The objective of this teaching case is (1) to illustrate the factors that contributed to Queensland Health's disastrous implementation project and (2) to understand the broader applications of this project failure on state and national legislations as well as industry sectors. The case narrative and teaching notes are appropriate for both undergraduate and postgraduate students studying IS and project management subjects.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to childhood and maternal undernutrition in South Africa in 2000

OBJECTIVES To estimate the disease burden attributable to being underweight as an indicator of undernutrition in children under 5 years of age and in pregnant women for the year 2000. DESIGN World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. The 1999 National Food Consumption Survey prevalence of underweight classified in three low weight-for-age categories was compared with standard growth charts to estimate population-attributable fractions for mortality and morbidity outcomes, based on increased risk for each category and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for South Africa in 2000. Maternal underweight, leading to an increased risk of intra-uterine growth retardation and further risk of low birth weight (LBW), was also assessed using the approach adopted by the global assessment. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Children under 5 years of age and pregnant women. OUTCOME MEASURES Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from protein- energy malnutrition and a fraction of those from diarrhoeal disease, pneumonia, malaria, other non- HIV/AIDS infectious and parasitic conditions in children aged 0 - 4 years, and LBW. RESULTS Among children under 5 years, 11.8% were underweight. In the same age group, 11,808 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 11,100 - 12,642) or 12.3% (95% uncertainty interval 11.5 - 13.1%) were attributable to being underweight. Protein-energy malnutrition contributed 44.7% and diarrhoeal disease 29.6% of the total attributable burden. Childhood and maternal underweight accounted for 2.7% (95% uncertainty interval 2.6 - 2.9%) of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000 and 10.8% (95% uncertainty interval 10.2 - 11.5%) of DALYs in children under 5. CONCLUSIONS The study shows that reduction of the occurrence of underweight would have a substantial impact on child mortality, and also highlights the need to monitor this important indicator of child health.