823 resultados para Accident risk forecasting.


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Male and Female, Cyclist and Driver Perceptions of Crash Risk in Critical Road Situations. Governments are promoting cycling but many Australians, particularly women, do not ride because they perceive it to be too risky. This research compared the risks perceived by female and male, cyclists and drivers in specific on-road situations, accounting for factors such as travel patterns and experience, perceived skill, and risk taking behaviours. Compared to their male counterparts, female cyclists and drivers gave similarly elevated perceptions of risk. These differences are not completely accounted for by cycling patterns or perceptions of skill. Thus, these gender differences are not specific to cycling, but may reflect wider differences in risk perception.

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One of the riskiest activities in the course of a person's work is driving. By developing and testing a new work driving risk assessment measurement tool for use by organisations this research will contribute to the safety of those who drive for work purposes. The research results highlighted limitations associated with current self-report measures and provided evidence that the work driving environment is extremely complex and involves constant interactions between humans, vehicles, the road environment, and the organisational context.

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As China continues to motorise rapidly, solutions are needed to reduce the burden of road trauma that is spread inequitably across the community. Little is currently known about how new drivers are trained to deal with on-road challenges, and little is also known about the perceptions, behaviours and attitudes of road users in China. This paper reports on a pilot study conducted in a driver retraining facility in one Chinese city where people who have had their licence suspended for accrual of 12 demerit points in a one year period must attend compulsory retraining in order to regain their licence. A sample of 239 suspended drivers responded to an anonymous questionnaire that sought information about preferred driving speeds and perceptions of safe driving speeds across two speed zones. Responses indicated that speeds higher than the posted limits were commonly reported, and that there was incongruence between preferred and safe speeds, such that a greater proportion of drivers reported preferred speeds that were substantially faster than what were reported as safe speeds. Participants with more driving experience reported significantly fewer crashes than newly licensed drivers (less than 2 years licensed) but no differences were found in offences when compared across groups with different levels of driving experience. Perceptions of risky behaviours were assessed by asking participants to describe what they considered to be the most dangerous on-road behaviours. Speeding and drink driving were the most commonly reported by far, followed by issues such as fatigue, ignoring traffic rules, not obeying traffic rules, phone use while driving, and non-use of seatbelts, which attracted an extremely low response which seems consistent with previously reported low belt wearing rates, unfavourable attitudes towards seatbelt use, and low levels of enforcement. Finally, observations about culturally specific considerations are made from previous research conducted by the authors and others. Specifically, issues of saving face and the importance and pervasiveness of social networks and social influence are discussed with particular regard to how any future countermeasures need to be informed by a thorough understanding of Chinese customs and culture.

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Pollution on electrical insulators is one of the greatest causes of failure of substations subjected to high levels of salinity and environmental pollution. Considering leakage current as the main indicator of pollution on insulators, this paper focus on establishing the effect of the environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators and determining the significant change in the magnitude of the pollution on the insulators during dry and humid periods. Hierarchical segmentation analysis was used to establish the effect of environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators. The Kruskal-Wallis test was utilized to determine the significant changes in the magnitude of the pollution due to climate periods. An important result was the discovery that leakage current was more common on insulators during dry periods than humid ones. There was also a higher risk of failure due to pollution during dry periods. During the humid period, various temperatures and wind directions produced a small change in the risk of failure. As a technical result, operators of electrical substations can now identify the cause of an increase in risk of failure due to pollution in the area. The research provides a contribution towards the behaviour of the leakage current under conditions similar to those of the Colombian Caribbean coast and how they affect the risk of failure of the substation due to pollution.

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Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

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- Objective Driver sleepiness is a major crash risk factor, but may be under-recognized as a risky driving behavior. Sleepy driving is usually rated as less of a road safety issue than more well-known risky driving behaviors, such as drink driving and speeding. The objective of this study was to compare perception of crash risk of sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. - Methods In total, 300 Australian drivers completed a questionnaire that assessed crash risk perceptions for sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. Additionally, the participants perception of crash risk was assessed for five different contextual scenarios that included different levels of sleepiness (low, high), driving duration (short, long), and time of day/circadian influences (afternoon, night-time) of driving. - Results The analysis confirmed that sleepy driving was considered a risky driving behavior, but not as risky as high levels of speeding (p < .05). Yet, the risk of crashing at 4 am was considered as equally risky as low levels of speeding (10 km over the limit). The comparisons of the contextual scenarios revealed driving scenarios that would arguably be perceived as quite risky due to time of day/circadian influences were not reported as high risk. - Conclusions The results suggest a lack of awareness or appreciation of circadian rhythm functioning, particularly the descending phase of circadian rhythm that promotes increased sleepiness in the afternoon and during the early hours of the morning. Yet, the results suggested an appreciation of the danger associated with long distance driving and driver sleepiness. Further efforts are required to improve the community’s awareness of the impairing effects from sleepiness and in particular, knowledge regarding the human circadian rhythm and the increased sleep propensity during the circadian nadir.

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Baby Boomers are a generation of life long association joiners, but following generations prefer spontaneous and episodic volunteering. This trend is apparent not only during natural disasters, but in most other spheres of volunteering. Legal liability for such volunteers is a growing concern, which unresolved, may dampen civic participation. We critically examine the current treatment of these liabilities through legislation, insurance and risk management.

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Crash cushions are devices deployed on the road network in order to shield fixed roadside hazards and the non-crashworthy ends of road safety barriers. However crash cushions vary in terms of configuration and operation, meaning that different devices may also vary in terms of ability to mitigate occupant risk. In this study, data derived from crash testing of eleven redirective crash cushions is used as the base input to a numerical procedure for calculation of occupant risk indicators Occupant Impact Velocity (OIV), Occupant Ridedown Acceleration (ORA) and longitudinal Acceleration Severity Index (ASI) for a range of simulated impacting vehicles (mass 800 kg to 2,500 kg) impacting each crash cushion at a range of impact speeds (18 m/s to 32 m/s). The results may be interpreted as demonstrating firstly that enhanced knowledge of the performance of a device over a range of impact conditions, i.e., beyond the crash testing, may assist in determining the crash cushion most suited to a particular application; secondly that a more appropriate conformance test for occupant risk would be a frontal impact by a small (light) vehicle travelling parallel to and aligned with the centreline of the crash cushion; and thirdly that current documented numerical procedures for calculating occupant risk indicators may require review.

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