Maintenance strategy optimization using a continuous-state partially observable semi-Markov decision process

Due to the limitation of current condition monitoring technologies, the estimates of asset health states may contain some uncertainties. A maintenance strategy ignoring this uncertainty of asset health state can cause additional costs or downtime. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a commonly used approach to derive optimal maintenance strategies when asset health inspections are imperfect. However, existing applications of the POMDP to maintenance decision-making largely adopt the discrete time and state assumptions. The discrete-time assumption requires the health state transitions and maintenance activities only happen at discrete epochs, which cannot model the failure time accurately and is not cost-effective. The discrete health state assumption, on the other hand, may not be elaborate enough to improve the effectiveness of maintenance. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP). An algorithm that combines the Monte Carlo-based density projection method and the policy iteration is developed to solve the POSMDP. Different types of maintenance activities (i.e., inspections, replacement, and imperfect maintenance) are considered in this paper. The next maintenance action and the corresponding waiting durations are optimized jointly to minimize the long-run expected cost per unit time and availability. The result of simulation studies shows that the proposed maintenance optimization approach is more cost-effective than maintenance strategies derived by another two approximate methods, when regular inspection intervals are adopted. The simulation study also shows that the maintenance cost can be further reduced by developing maintenance strategies with state-dependent maintenance intervals using the POSMDP. In addition, during the simulation studies the proposed POSMDP shows the ability to adopt a cost-effective strategy structure when multiple types of maintenance activities are involved.

High-pressure Raman spectroscopic and other structural studies of hydrotalcites containing intercalated dicarboxylic acid anions

The results of pressure-tuning Raman spectroscopic, X-ray powder diffraction and solid-state 13C-NMR studies of selected dicarboxylate anions intercalated in a Mg-Al layered double hydroxide (talcite) lattice are reported. The pressure dependences of the vibrational modes are linear for pressures up to 4.6 GPa indicating that no phase transitions occur. The interlayer spacings show that the oxalate, malonate and succinate dianions are oriented perpendicular to the layers, but the glutarate and adipate are tilted. The solid-state 13C-NMR spectra of these materials show full chemical shift anisotropy and, therefore, the anions are not mobile at room temperature.

Asymptotic and numerical results for a model of solvent-dependent drug diffusion through polymeric spheres

A model for drug diffusion from a spherical polymeric drug delivery device is considered. The model contains two key features. The first is that solvent diffuses into the polymer, which then transitions from a glassy to a rubbery state. The interface between the two states of polymer is modelled as a moving boundary, whose speed is governed by a kinetic law; the same moving boundary problem arises in the one-phase limit of a Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling. The second feature is that drug diffuses only through the rubbery region, with a nonlinear diffusion coefficient that depends on the concentration of solvent. We analyse the model using both formal asymptotics and numerical computation, the latter by applying a front-fixing scheme with a finite volume method. Previous results are extended and comparisons are made with linear models that work well under certain parameter regimes. Finally, a model for a multi-layered drug delivery device is suggested, which allows for more flexible control of drug release.

Supporting refugee students in schools : what constitutes inclusive education?

The worldwide rise in numbers of refugees and asylum seekers suggests the need to examine the practices of those institutions charged with their resettlement in host countries. In this paper we investigate the role of one important institution – schooling – and its contribution to the successful resettlement of refugee children. We begin with an examination of forced migration and its links with globalisation, and the barriers to inclusion confronting refugees. A discussion of the educational challenges confronting individual refugee youth and schools is followed by case studies of four schools and the approaches they had developed to meet the needs of young people from a refugee background. Using our findings and other research, we outline a model of good practice in refugee education. We conclude by discussing how educational institutions might play a more active role in facilitating transitions to citizenship for refugee youth through an inclusive approach.

Schooling and refugees : engaging with the complex trajectories of globalisation

This paper examines the complexities associated with educating a mobile and politically marginalised population, refugee students, in the state of Queensland, Australia. Historically, schools have been national institutions concerned with social reproduction and citizenship formation with a focus on spatially fixed populations. While education authorities in much of the developed world now acknowledge the need to prepare students for a more interconnected world of work and opportunity, they have largely failed to provide systemic support for one category of children on the move - refugees. We begin this paper with a discussion of forced migration and its links with ‘globalisation’. We then present our research findings about the educational challenges confronting individual refugee youth and schools in Queensland. This is followed with a summary of good practice in refugee education. The paper concludes with a discussion of how nation-states might play a more active role in facilitating transitions to citizenship for refugee youth.

Large-Eddy Simulation of physiological pulsatile non-newtonian flow in a channel with double constriction

Physiological pulsatile flow in a 3D model of arterial double stenosis, using the modified Power-law blood viscosity model, is investigated by applying Large Eddy Simulation (LES) technique. The computational domain has been chosen is a simple channel with biological type stenoses. The physiological pulsation is generated at the inlet of the model using the first four harmonics of the Fourier series of the physiological pressure pulse. In LES, a top-hat spatial grid-filter is applied to the Navier-Stokes equations of motion to separate the large scale flows from the subgrid scale (SGS). The large scale flows are then resolved fully while the unresolved SGS motions are modelled using the localized dynamic model. The flow Reynolds numbers which are typical of those found in human large artery are chosen in the present work. Transitions to turbulent of the pulsatile non-Newtonian along with Newtonian flow in the post stenosis are examined through the mean velocity, wall shear stress, mean streamlines as well as turbulent kinetic energy and explained physically along with the relevant medical concerns.

Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

(Re)focusing the Lens to Make Diversity and Difference Visible : Teaching for Quality and Equity

Despite the evidence that Australia’s children are learning literacy, there is also significant evidence that the poorest and most disadvantaged children are being left behind. To date our understanding of the place of transitions in this has been limited, although there has been work on the fourth grade slump (Gee, 2000, 2008), the transition from primary years to secondary years (e.g. Bahr & Pendergast, 2007; Pendergast & Bahr, 2005, 2010), and transitions when changing schools (Henderson, 2008). In this chapter, we consider the notion of transitioning, as we unpack issues related to recognising and valuing student diversity and difference. We want to highlight ways of providing high quality and high equity literacy pedagogy and literacy outcomes for middle years students. We will also discuss the importance of recognising that students transit to schools and school learning from other significant contexts, each with their own combinations of literacy practices, rituals and values.

An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

Evidence for u.v. induction of CDKN2 mutations in melanoma cell lines

The CDKN2 gene, encoding the cyclin dependent kinase inhibitor p16, is a tumour suppressor gene involved in melanoma and maps to chromosome band 9p22. Mutations or interstitial deletions of this gene have been found both in the germline of familial melanoma cases and somatically in melanoma cell lines. Previous mutation analyses of melanoma cell lines have indicated a high frequency of C:G to T:A transitions, with all of these mutations occurring at dipyrimidine sites. Including three melanoma cell lines carrying tandem CC to TT mutations, the spectrum of mutations so far reported indicates a possible role for u.v. radiation in the mutagenesis of this gene in some tumours. To further examine this hypothesis we have characterised mutations of the CDKN2 gene in 30 melanoma cell lines. Nineteen lines carried complete or partial homozygous deletions of the gene. Of the remaining cell lines, eight were shown by direct sequencing of PCR products from exon 1 and exon 2 to carry a total of nine different mutations of CDKN2. Two cell lines carried tandem CC to TT mutations and a high rate of C:G to T:A transitions was observed. This study provides further evidence for the role of u.v. light in the genesis of melanoma, with one target being the CDKN2 tumour suppressor gene.

The African Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Its mission is to promote Mathematics and Science in Africa and to provide a focal point for Mathematics university training in Africa. It offers scholarships for up to 50 students to come and study for a period of nine months. Of the 50 students, about 15 positions are reserved for females. In the 2006/2007 intake there were over 250 applicants. The students are housed and fed and their return travel from their home town is fully funded. Lecturers also stay at AIMS and share their meals with the students, so that a rapport quickly develops. The students are away from their families and friends for nine months and are absolutely committed to the discipline of Mathematics. When they first arrive, some of them have little ability in English but since all tuition is in English they quickly learn. Some find the transitions difficult but they all support one another and at the end of their time their English skills are very good. The students do a series of subjects that last for about three weeks each, consisting of 30 contact hours, as well as a thesis/project. Each course has a number of assignments associated with it and these get evaluated. AIMS has seven or eight teaching assistants who help with the tutorials, marking, advice, and who are a vital component of AIMS.

Responding to rapid change in higher education : enabling university departments responsible for work related programs through boundary spanning

Boundary spanning links organisations to one another in order to create mutually beneficial relationships; it is a concept developed and used in organisational theory but rarely used to understand organisational structures in higher education (Pruitt & Schwartz, 1999). Yet understanding boundary spanning activity has the capacity to help universities respond to demands for continuous quality improvement, and to increase capacity to react to environmental uncertainty. At a time of rapid change characterised by a fluctuating economic environment, globalisation, increased mobility, and ecological issues, boundary spanning could be viewed as a key element in assisting institutions in effectively understanding and responding to such change. The literature suggests that effective boundary spanning could help universities improve organisational performance, use of infrastructure and resources, intergroup relations, leadership styles, performance and levels of job satisfaction, technology transfer, knowledge creation, and feedback processes, amongst other things. Our research aims to put a face on boundary spanning (Miller, 2008) by contextualising it within organisational systems and structures in university departments responsible for work related programs i.e. Work Integrated Learning (WIL) and Co-operative Education (Co-op). In this paper these approaches are referred to collectively as work related programs. The authors formed a research team in Victoria, British Columbia in 2009 at a sponsored international research forum, Two Days in June. The purpose of the invitation-only forum was to investigate commonalities and differences across programs and to formulate an international research agenda for work related programs over the next five to ten years. Researchers from Queensland University of Technology, University of Cincinnati, Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University, University of Ottawa,and Dublin City University agreed that further research was needed into the impact stakeholders, organisational systems, structures, policies, and practices have on departments delivering work related programs. This paper illustrates how policy and practice across the five institutions can be better understood through the lens of boundary spanning. It is argued that boundary spanning is an area of theory and practice with great applicability to a better understanding of the activity of these departments. The paper concludes by proposing topics for future research to examine how boundary spanning can be used to better understand practice and change in work related programs.

Fitting in : a pervasive new graduate nurse need

Aim: This qualitative study aims to provide insight into how Australian New Graduate Nurses (NGNs) experienced their transition to acute care nursing practice. Method: Nine NGNs each participated in three in-depth interviews conducted across their first year of practice. Constant comparative analysis was used to identify the emergent themes. Findings: The desire to fit in (establishment of secure social bonds) with ward staff is an important element of NGN transition experiences. Fitting in was about feeling one's self to be part of a social group, and participants made it clear that their perceptions of their success in establishing secure and meaningful social bonds in each new ward was extremely important for their sense of being as NGNs. Current NGN Transition Programmes (NGNTPs) involve multiple ward rotations, increasing the demand for the NGN to fit in. Thus participants were engaged in a deeply personal transition experience that was not necessarily aligned with multiple ward rotations. Conclusions: Although NGNTPs have the word “transition” in their title, it may be that current programmes are more focussed on organisations’ desire to “orient” NGNs to working within the acute care setting than facilitating personal transitions to practice. Further investigation of the impact of NGNTPs on NGNs and the associated multiple ward rotations is required.