Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

An additive model for spatio-temporal smoothing of cancer mortality rates

In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical model is used to anaylze the female breast cancer mortality rates for the State of Missouri from 1969 through 2001. The logit transformations of the mortality rates are assumed to be linear over the time with additive spatial and age effects as intercepts and slopes. Objective priors of the hierarchical model are explored. The Bayesian estimates are quite robustness in terms change of the hyperparamaters. The spatial correlations are appeared in both intercepts and slopes.

Temporal and functional changes in glycosaminoglycan expression during osteogenesis

Heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSPGs) are complex and labile macromolecular moieties on the surfaces of cells that control the activities of a range of extracellular proteins, particularly those driving growth and regeneration. Here, we examine the biosynthesis of heparan sulfate (HS) sugars produced by cultured MC3T3-E1 mouse calvarial pre-osteoblast cells in order to explore the idea that changes in HS activity in turn drive phenotypic development during osteogenesis. Cells grown for 5 days under proliferating conditions were compared to cells grown for 20 days under mineralizing conditions with respect to their phenotype, the forms of HS core protein produced, and their HS sulfotransferase biosynthetic enzyme levels. RQ-PCR data was supported by the results from the purification of day 5 and day 20 HS forms by anionic exchange chromatography. The data show that cells in active growth phases produce more complex forms of sugar than cells that have become relatively quiescent during active mineralization, and that these in turn can differentially influence rates of cell growth when added exogenously back to preosteoblasts.

Tracking spatio temporal movement of human in terms of space utilization using media access control address data

Using Media-Access-Control (MAC) address for data collection and tracking is a capable and cost effective approach as the traditional ways such as surveys and video surveillance have numerous drawbacks and limitations. Positioning cell-phones by Global System for Mobile communication was considered an attack on people's privacy. MAC addresses just keep a unique log of a WiFi or Bluetooth enabled device for connecting to another device that has not potential privacy infringements. This paper presents the use of MAC address data collection approach for analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics of human in terms of shared space utilization. This paper firstly discuses the critical challenges and key benefits of MAC address data as a tracking technology for monitoring human movement. Here, proximity-based MAC address tracking is postulated as an effective methodology for analysing the complex spatio-temporal dynamics of human movements at shared zones such as lounge and office areas. A case study of university staff lounge area is described in detail and results indicates a significant added value of the methodology for human movement tracking. By analysis of MAC address data in the study area, clear statistics such as staff’s utilisation frequency, utilisation peak periods, and staff time spent is obtained. The analyses also reveal staff’s socialising profiles in terms of group and solo gathering. The paper is concluded with a discussion on why MAC address tracking offers significant advantages for tracking human behaviour in terms of shared space utilisation with respect to other and more prominent technologies, and outlines some of its remaining deficiencies.

Understanding the abnormal brain activity in epilepsy as a potential predictor of the onset of an epileptic seizure

The Brain Research Institute (BRI) uses various types of indirect measurements, including EEG and fMRI, to understand and assess brain activity and function. As well as the recovery of generic information about brain function, research also focuses on the utilisation of such data and understanding to study the initiation, dynamics, spread and suppression of epileptic seizures. To assist with the future focussing of this aspect of their research, the BRI asked the MISG 2010 participants to examine how the available EEG and fMRI data and current knowledge about epilepsy should be analysed and interpreted to yield an enhanced understanding about brain activity occurring before, at commencement of, during, and after a seizure. Though the deliberations of the study group were wide ranging in terms of the related matters considered and discussed, considerable progress was made with the following three aspects. (1) The science behind brain activity investigations depends crucially on the quality of the analysis and interpretation of, as well as the recovery of information from, EEG and fMRI measurements. A number of specific methodologies were discussed and formalised, including independent component analysis, principal component analysis, profile monitoring and change point analysis (hidden Markov modelling, time series analysis, discontinuity identification). (2) Even though EEG measurements accurately and very sensitively record the onset of an epileptic event or seizure, they are, from the perspective of understanding the internal initiation and localisation, of limited utility. They only record neuronal activity in the cortical (surface layer) neurons of the brain, which is a direct reflection of the type of electrical activity they have been designed to record. Because fMRI records, through the monitoring of blood flow activity, the location of localised brain activity within the brain, the possibility of combining fMRI measurements with EEG, as a joint inversion activity, was discussed and examined in detail. (3) A major goal for the BRI is to improve understanding about ``when'' (at what time) an epileptic seizure actually commenced before it is identified on an eeg recording, ``where'' the source of this initiation is located in the brain, and ``what'' is the initiator. Because of the general agreement in the literature that, in one way or another, epileptic events and seizures represent abnormal synchronisations of localised and/or global brain activity the modelling of synchronisations was examined in some detail. References C. M. Michel, G. Thut, S. Morand, A. Khateb, A. J. Pegna, R. Grave de Peralta, S. Gonzalez, M. Seeck and T. Landis, Electric source imaging of human brain functions, Brain Res. 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An investigation of the pre-irradiation temporal stability of PAGAT gel dosimeter

In this work we examine two aspects of the PAGAT gel dosimeter. The first aspect studied is determination of a stable range of concentrations of the anti-oxidant Tetrakis Hydroxy Phosphonium Chloride (THPC). Once the desired THPC concentration is determined, we proceed to an investigation into the effect of pre-irradiation storage time and how this affects the dose response of the gel.

General self-efficacy influences affective task reactions during a work simulation : the temporal effects of changes in workload at different levels of control

This study investigated the effects of workload, control, and general self-efficacy on affective task reactions (i.e., demands-ability fit, active coping, and anxiety) during a work simulation. The main goals were: (1) to determine the extent general self-efficacy moderates the effects of demand and control on affective task reactions, and; (2) to determine if this varies as a function of changes in workload. Participants (N=141) completed an inbox activity under conditions of low or high control and within low and high workload conditions. The order of trials varied so that workload increased or decreased. Results revealed individuals with high general self-efficacy reported better demands-abilities fit and active coping as well as less anxiety. Three interactive effects were found. First, it was found that high control increased demands-abilities fit from trial 1 to trial 2, but only when workload decreased. Second, it was found that low efficacious individuals active coping increased in trial 2, but only under high control. Third, it was found that high control helped high efficacious individuals manage anxiety when workload decreased. However, for individuals with low general self-efficacy, neither high nor low control alleviated anxiety (i.e., whether workload increased or decreased over time).

Partitioning the variation in stream fish assemblages within a spatio-temporal hierarchy

This paper describes the relative influence of: (i) landscape scale environmental and hydrological factors; (ii) local scale environmental conditions including recent flow history, and; (iii) spatial effects (proximity of sites to one another) on the spatial and temporal variation in local freshwater fish assemblages in the Mary River, south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Using canonical correspondence analysis, each of the three sets of variables explained similar amounts of variation in fish assemblages (ranging from 44 to 52%). Variation in fish assemblages was partitioned into eight unique components: pure environmental, pure spatial, pure temporal, spatially structured environmental variation, temporally structured environmental variation, spatially structured temporal variation, the combined spatial/temporal component of environmental variation and unexplained variation. The total variation explained by these components was 65%. The combined spatial/temporal/environmental component explained the largest component (30%) of the total variation in fish assemblages, whereas pure environmental (6%), temporal (9%) and spatial (2%) effects were relatively unimportant. The high degree of intercorrelation between the three different groups of explanatory variables indicates that our understanding of the importance to fish assemblages of hydrological variation (often highlighted as the major structuring force in river systems) is dependent on the environmental context in which this role is examined.

Water Quality Indices from Unbalanced Spatio-Temporal Monitoring Designs

This chapter investigates a variety of water quality assessment tools for reservoirs with balanced/unbalanced monitoring designs and focuses on providing informative water quality assessments to ensure decision-makers are able to make risk-informed management decisions about reservoir health. In particular, two water quality assessment methods are described: non-compliance (probability of the number of times the indicator exceeds the recommended guideline) and amplitude (degree of departure from the guideline). Strengths and weaknesses of current and alternative water quality methods will be discussed. The proposed methodology is particularly applicable to unbalanced designs with/without missing values and reflects the general conditions and is not swayed too heavily by the occasional extreme value (very high or very low quality). To investigate the issues in greater detail, we use as a case study, a reservoir within South-East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. The purpose here is to obtain an annual score that reflected the overall water quality, temporally, spatially and across water quality indicators for each reservoir.

The role of the posterior superior temporal sulcus in audiovisual processing

In this study we investigate previous claims that a region in the left posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS) is more activated by audiovisual than unimodal processing. First, we compare audiovisual to visual-visual and auditory-auditory conceptual matching using auditory or visual object names that are paired with pictures of objects or their environmental sounds. Second, we compare congruent and incongruent audiovisual trials when presentation is simultaneous or sequential. Third, we compare audiovisual stimuli that are either verbal (auditory and visual words) or nonverbal (pictures of objects and their associated sounds). The results demonstrate that, when task, attention, and stimuli are controlled, pSTS activation for audiovisual conceptual matching is 1) identical to that observed for intramodal conceptual matching, 2) greater for incongruent than congruent trials when auditory and visual stimuli are simultaneously presented, and 3) identical for verbal and nonverbal stimuli. These results are not consistent with previous claims that pSTS activation reflects the active formation of an integrated audiovisual representation. After a discussion of the stimulus and task factors that modulate activation, we conclude that, when stimulus input, task, and attention are controlled, pSTS is part of a distributed set of regions involved in conceptual matching, irrespective of whether the stimuli are audiovisual, auditory-auditory or visual-visual.

Spatial-temporal epidemiological analyses of two sympatric, co-endemic alphaviral diseases in Queensland, Australia

Background: The two most reported mosquito-borne diseases in Queensland, a northern state of Australia, are Ross River virus (RRV) disease and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease. Both diseases are endemic in Queensland and have similar clinical symptoms and comparable transmission cycles involving a complex inter-relationship between human hosts, various mosquito vectors, and a range of nonhuman vertebrate hosts, including marsupial mammals that are unique to the Australasian region. Although these viruses are thought to share similar vectors and vertebrate hosts, RRV is four times more prevalent than BFV in Queensland. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of BFV and RRV human disease notification data collected from 1995 to 2007 in Queensland to ascertain whether there were differences in the incidence patterns of RRV and BFV disease. In particular, we compared the temporal incidence and spatial distribution of both diseases and considered the relationship between their disease dynamics. We also investigated whether a peak in BFV incidence during spring was indicative of the following RRV and BFV transmission season incidence levels. Results: Although there were large differences in the notification rates of the two diseases, they had similar annual temporal patterns, but there were regional variations between the length and magnitude of the transmission seasons. During periods of increased disease activity, however, there was no association between the dynamics of the two diseases. Conclusions: The results from this study suggest that while RRV and BFV share similar mosquito vectors, there are significant differences in the ecology of these viruses that result in different epidemic patterns of disease incidence. Further investigation is required into the ecology of each virus to determine which factors are important in promoting RRV and BFV disease outbreaks.

Bayesian models for spatio-temporal assessment of disease

This thesis has contributed to the advancement of knowledge in disease modelling by addressing interesting and crucial issues relevant to modelling health data over space and time. The research has led to the increased understanding of spatial scales, temporal scales, and spatial smoothing for modelling diseases, in terms of their methodology and applications. This research is of particular significance to researchers seeking to employ statistical modelling techniques over space and time in various disciplines. A broad class of statistical models are employed to assess what impact of spatial and temporal scales have on simulated and real data.