Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Sense of home, sense of place : a morpho-typological comparative study of Florida and Queensland

Cities in the 21st century have become layered and complex systems not only in terms of physical form, but also social and cultural structure. Consolidated tools to analyze the urban environment have today to be improved including a strong interdisciplinary perspective in order to understand and manage the unprecedented complexity our cities are facing. Redevelopments, new estates, internal and external migrations are all dynamics which are deeply modifying the built environment directly or indirectly also affecting local identity, culture and social structure. This paper investigates the relationship between urban form and social behaviors, with particular attention to the perception of the built environment and its use by long term residents, recent migrants as well as tourists. A comparative study is suggested between South East Queensland and Florida; this two regions share common features such as subtropical climate, similar lifestyle, leisure cities and canal estates. Neighborhoods on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts have been designed using the communities of Florida, such as Celebration or Seaside, as models. These regions share also significant migration processes, similar social problems and high crime rates, which directly affect the local economies. Comparing Florida and SEQ could provide an understanding of different strategies adopted and how urban development and lifestyle can be managed maintaining social equity and security. This study, investigates people’s perception of built form and how this affects the use of public space. The relationship between built environment and social behaviour has been previously investigated, for example by environmental psychology; the innovation proposed by this research is to study the perception of place in leisure cities at multiple levels. Locals, migrants and tourists have different understanding of the built form in the same location; this understanding affects the use of space and the attitude to visit or avoid some precincts. The research methodology integrates traditional morpho-typological investigations with qualitative methods; data are collected in the first phase through online surveys about perception of urban forms. Findings guide then the selection of neighbourhoods to be investigated in detail through questionnaires and Nolli maps, specifying morphological regions as well as recurrent building typologies. A final phase includes interviews with selected stakeholders. Major urban projects are discussed addressing how they are used and perceived by locals, migrants or tourists; the comparison between SEQ and Florida allows the identification of strategies to address migration issues in both regions with particular attention to urban form and placemaking dynamics.

Old mastheads and new media : newspapers striving to adapt in Australia and South-east Asia

As a key element in their response to new media forcing transformations in mass media and media use, newspapers have deployed various strategies to not only establish online and mobile products, and develop healthy business plans, but to set out to be dominant portals. Their response to change was the subject of an early investigation by one of the present authors (Keshvani 2000). That was part of a set of short studies inquiring into what impact new software applications and digital convergence might have on journalism practice (Tickle and Keshvani 2000), and also looking for demonstrations of the way that innovations, technologies and protocols then under development might produce a “wireless, streamlined electronic news production process (Tickle and Keshvani 2001).” The newspaper study compared the online products of The Age in Melbourne and the Straits Times in Singapore. It provided an audit of the Singapore and Australia Information and Communications Technology (ICT) climate concentrating on the state of development of carrier networks, as a determining factor in the potential strength of the two services with their respective markets. In the outcome, contrary to initial expectations, the early cable roll-out and extensive ‘wiring’ of the city in Singapore had not produced a level of uptake of Internet services as strong as that achieved in Melbourne by more ad hoc and varied strategies. By interpretation, while news websites and online content were at an early stage of development everywhere, and much the same as one another, no determining structural imbalance existed to separate these leading media participants in Australia and South-east Asia. The present research revisits that situation, by again studying the online editions of the two large newspapers in the original study, and one other, The Courier Mail, (recognising the diversification of types of product in this field, by including it as a representative of Newscorp, now a major participant). The inquiry works through the principle of comparison. It is an exercise in qualitative, empirical research that establishes a comparison between the situation in 2000 as described in the earlier work, and the situation in 2014, after a decade of intense development in digital technology affecting the media industries. It is in that sense a follow-up study on the earlier work, although this time giving emphasis to content and style of the actual products as experienced by their users. It compares the online and print editions of each of these three newspapers; then the three mastheads as print and online entities, among themselves; and finally it compares one against the other two, as representing a South-east Asian model and Australian models. This exercise is accompanied by a review of literature on the developments in ICT affecting media production and media organisations, to establish the changed context. The new study of the online editions is conducted as a systematic appraisal of the first level, or principal screens, of the three publications, over the course of six days (10-15.2.14 inclusive). For this, categories for analysis were made, through conducting a preliminary examination of the products over three days in the week before. That process identified significant elements of media production, such as: variegated sourcing of materials; randomness in the presentation of items; differential production values among media platforms considered, whether text, video or stills images; the occasional repurposing and repackaging of top news stories of the day and the presence of standard news values – once again drawn out of the trial ‘bundle’ of journalistic items. Reduced in this way the online artefacts become comparable with the companion print editions from the same days. The categories devised and then used in the appraisal of the online products have been adapted to print, to give the closest match of sets of variables. This device, to study the two sets of publications on like standards -- essentially production values and news values—has enabled the comparisons to be made. This comparing of the online and print editions of each of the three publications was set up as up the first step in the investigation. In recognition of the nature of the artefacts, as ones that carry very diverse information by subject and level of depth, and involve heavy creative investment in the formulation and presentation of the information; the assessment also includes an open section for interpreting and commenting on main points of comparison. This takes the form of a field for text, for the insertion of notes, in the table employed for summarising the features of each product, for each day. When the sets of comparisons as outlined above are noted, the process then becomes interpretative, guided by the notion of change. In the context of changing media technology and publication processes, what substantive alterations have taken place, in the overall effort of news organisations in the print and online fields since 2001; and in their print and online products separately? Have they diverged or continued along similar lines? The remaining task is to begin to make inferences from that. Will the examination of findings enforce the proposition that a review of the earlier study, and a forensic review of new models, does provide evidence of the character and content of change --especially change in journalistic products and practice? Will it permit an authoritative description on of the essentials of such change in products and practice? Will it permit generalisation, and provide a reliable base for discussion of the implications of change, and future prospects? Preliminary observations suggest a more dynamic and diversified product has been developed in Singapore, well themed, obviously sustained by public commitment and habituation to diversified online and mobile media services. The Australian products suggest a concentrated corporate and journalistic effort and deployment of resources, with a strong market focus, but less settled and ordered, and showing signs of limitations imposed by the delay in establishing a uniform, large broadband network. The scope of the study is limited. It is intended to test, and take advantage of the original study as evidentiary material from the early days of newspaper companies’ experimentation with online formats. Both are small studies. The key opportunity for discovery lies in the ‘time capsule’ factor; the availability of well-gathered and processed information on major newspaper company production, at the threshold of a transformational decade of change in their industry. The comparison stands to identify key changes. It should also be useful as a reference for further inquiries of the same kind that might be made, and for monitoring of the situation in regard to newspaper portals on line, into the future.

Appendix 8: Quantifying the effects of environmental factors on catch rates in South-East fisheries: 1986-2006

The collection of basic environmental data by industry members was successful and offers a way of overcoming the problems associated with differences in scale between the environment and fisheries datasets. A simple method of collecting environmental data was developed that was only a small time burden on skippers, yet has the potential to provide very useful information on the same scale as the catch and effort data recorded in the logbooks. The success of this trial was aided by the natural interest of fishers to learn more about the environment in which they fish. The archival temperature-depth tags chosen proved robust, reliable and easy to use. While the use of large scale environmental data may not yield significant improvements in stock assessments for most SESSF species, fine-scale data collected from selected vessels using methods developed during this project may, in the longer term, be useful for incorporation into CPUE standardisations in the future...

A workplace-based Participatory Action Research project to investigate the effectiveness of nutrition and physical activity interventions for truck drivers in six Queensland transport industry workplaces: 2012-2015

The Queensland Transport Industry Workplace Health Intervention project was a Participatory Action Research (PAR) project to investigate the effectiveness of workplace-based nutrition and physical activity health promotion interventions for truck drivers in transport industry workplaces in south-east Queensland. The project was conducted by a research team at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT), and was funded by the Queensland Government under the Healthier.Happier.Workplaces initiative.

Estimating the potential impact of entry fees for marine parks on dive tourism in South East Asia

Marine reserves are increasingly being established as a mechanism to protect marine biodiversity and sensitive habitats. As well as providing conservation benefits, marine reserves provide benefits to recreational scuba divers who dive within the reserve, as well as to recreational and commercial fishers outside the reserve through spill-over effects. To ensure benefits are being realised, management of marine reserves requires ongoing monitoring and surveillance. These are not costless, and many marine reserve managers impose an entry fee. In some countries, dive tourism is major income source to coastal industries, and a concern is that high entry fees may dissuade divers. In this paper, the price elasticity of demand for dive tourism in three countries in South East Asia – Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia – is estimated using a travel-cost model. From the model, the total non-market use value associated with diving in the area is estimated to be in the order of US$4.5 billion a year. The price elasticity of demand in the region is highly inelastic, such that increasing the cost of diving through a management levy would have little impact on total diver numbers.

Travel behaviours of immigrants in Queensland, Australia

The aim of this research is to determine if there is a significant difference in public transport usage between Australian-born and overseas-born travellers in South East Queensland and identify if further investigation into this demographic factor is necessary. Using the household travel survey data of Southeast Queensland, Australia, this paper analyses the travel behaviours of immigrants and non-immigrants in the region. The immigrant population is divided into six sub-groups based on their continent of origin. The analysis results suggest that immigrants are more likely to use public transit in Brisbane over other regions in the study. Overall, this research strongly suggests that in Australia, a higher proportion of the immigrant population is more likely to use public transit compared to the proportion of the local population.

Using an ‘interpretative model’ for contextual design of heritage landscape databases: The case of St Helena Island National Park in Queensland, Australia

Due to the increasing speed of landscape changes and the massive development of computer technologies, the methods of representing heritage landscapes using digital tools have become a worldwide concern in conservation research. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how an ‘interpretative model’ can be used for contextual design of heritage landscape information systems. This approach is explored through building a geographic information system database for St Helena Island national park in Moreton Bay, South East Queensland, Australia. Stakeholders' interpretations of this landscape were collected through interviews, and then used as a framework for designing the database. The designed database is a digital inventory providing contextual descriptions of the historic infrastructure remnants on St Helena Island. It also reveals the priorities of different sites in terms of historic research, landscape restoration, and tourism development. Additionally, this database produces thematic maps of the intangible heritage values, which could be used for landscape interpretation. This approach is different from the existing methods because building a heritage information system is deemed as an interpretative activity, rather than a value-free replication of the physical environment. This approach also shows how a cultural landscape methodology can be used to create a flexible information system for heritage conservation. The conclusion is that an ‘interpretative model’ of database design facilitates a more explicit focus on information support, and is a potentially effective approach to user-centred design of geographic information systems.

Monitoring temporal changes in use of two cathinones in a large urban catchment in Queensland, Australia

Wastewater analysis was used to examine prevalence and temporal trends in the use of two cathinones, methylone and mephedrone, in an urban population (>200,000 people) in South East Queensland, Australia. Wastewater samples were collected from the inlet of the sewage treatment plant that serviced the catchment from 2011 to 2013. Liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used to measure mephedrone and methylone in wastewater sample using direct injection mode. Mephedrone was not detected in any samples while methylone was detected in 45% of the samples. Daily mass loads of methylone were normalized to the population and used to evaluate methylone use in the catchment. Methylone mass loads peaked in 2012 but there was no clear temporal trend over the monitoring period. The prevalence of methylone use in the catchment was associated with the use of MDMA, the more popular analogue of methylone, as indicated by other complementary sources. Methylone use was stable in the study catchment during the monitoring period whereas mephedrone use has been declining after its peak in 2010. More research is needed on the pharmacokinetics of emerging illicit drugs to improve the applicability of wastewater analysis in monitoring their use in the population.

Subtropical subdivisions : toward a lot-rating methodology for subtropical climates

What role can climatically appropriate subdivision design play in decreasing the use of energy required to cool premises by maximising access to natural ventilation? How can this design be achieved? The subdivision design stage is critical to urban and suburban sustainability outcomes, as significant changes after development are constrained by the configuration of the subdivision, and then by the construction of the dwellings. Existing Australian lot rating methodologies for energy efficiency, such as that by the Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA), focus on reducing heating needs by increasing solar access, a key need in Australia’s temperate zone. A recent CRC CI project, Sustainable Subdivisions: Energy (Miller and Ambrose 2005) examined these guidelines to see if they could be adapted for use in subtropical South East Queensland (SEQ). Correlating the lot ratings with dwelling ratings, the project found that the SEDA guidelines would need to be modified for use to make allowance for natural ventilation. In SEQ, solar access for heating is less important than access to natural ventilation, and there is a need to reduce energy used to cool dwellings. In Queensland, the incidence of residential air-conditioning was predicted to reach 50 per cent by the end of 2005 (Mickel 2004). The CRC-CI, Sustainable Subdivisions: Ventilation Project (CRC-CI, in progress), aims to verify and quantify the role natural ventilation has in cooling residences in subtropical climates and develop a lot rating methodology for SEQ. This paper reviews results from an industry workshop that explored the current attitudes and methodologies used by a range of professionals involved in subdivision design and development in SEQ. Analysis of the workshop reveals that a key challenge for sustainability is that land development in subtropical SEQ is commonly a separate process from house design and siting. Finally, the paper highlights some of the issues that regulators and industry face in adopting a lot rating methodology for subdivisions offering improved ventilation access, including continuing disagreement between professionals over the desirability of rating tools.

Teachers’ understandings of their relationships with students : pedagogic connectedness

This paper reports on a doctoral study that explored the nature of pedagogic connectedness and revealed the ways in which teachers experience this phenomenon. Pedagogic connectedness is defined as the engagements between teacher and student that impact on student learning. In this study, twenty teachers in an independent college in South-East Queensland, Australia, were interviewed and the interview transcripts analysed iteratively. Five qualitatively different ways of experiencing pedagogic connectedness emerged from the data. The findings of this phenomenographic-related study are instructive in developing a framework for changes to teachers’ pedagogic practices.

Connected digital cities

In the future we will have a detailed ecological model of the whole planet with capabilities to explore and predict the consequences of alternative futures. However, such a planetary eco-model will take time to develop, time to populate with data, and time to validate - time the planet doesn't have. In the interim, we can model the major concentrations of energy use and pollution - our cities - and connect them to form a "talking cities network". Such a networked city model would be much quicker to build and validate. And the advantage of this approach is that it is safer and more effective for us to interfere with the operation of our cities than to tamper directly with the behaviour of natural systems. Essentially, it could be thought of as providing the planet with a nervous system and would empower us to better develop and manage sustainable cities.

Effects of fare collection policy on operating characteristics of a Brisbane busway station

Transit agencies across the world are increasingly shifting their fare collection mechanisms towards fully automated systems like the smart card. One of the objectives in implementing such a system is to reduce the boarding time per passenger and hence reduce the overall dwell time for the buses at the bus stops/bus rapid transit (BRT) stations. TransLink, the transit authority responsible for public transport management in South East Queensland, has introduced ‘GoCard’ technology using the Cubic platform for fare collection on its public transport system. In addition to this, three inner city BRT stations on South East Busway spine are operating as pre-paid platforms during evening peak time. This paper evaluates the effects of these multiple policy measures on operation of study busway station. The comparison between pre and post policy scenarios suggests that though boarding time per passenger has decreased, while the alighting time per passenger has increased slightly. However, there is a substantial reduction in operating efficiency was observed at the station.

Development of a particle number and particle mass vehicle emissions inventory for an urban fleet

Motor vehicles are major emitters of gaseous and particulate pollution in urban areas, and exposure to particulate pollution can have serious health effects, ranging from respiratory and cardiovascular disease to mortality. Motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions span a broad size range from 0.003-10µm, and are measured as different subsets of particle mass concentrations or particle number count. However, no comprehensive inventories currently exist in the international published literature covering this wide size range. This paper presents the first published comprehensive inventory of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions covering the full size range of particles emitted. The inventory was developed for urban South-East Queensland by combining two techniques from distinctly different disciplines, from aerosol science and transport modelling. A comprehensive set of particle emission factors were combined with traffic modelling, and tailpipe particle emissions were quantified for particle number (ultrafine particles), PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 for light and heavy duty vehicles and buses. A second aim of the paper involved using the data derived in this inventory for scenario analyses, to model the particle emission implications of different proportions of passengers travelling in light duty vehicles and buses in the study region, and to derive an estimate of fleet particle emissions in 2026. It was found that heavy duty vehicles (HDVs) in the study region were major emitters of particulate matter pollution, and although they contributed only around 6% of total regional vehicle kilometres travelled, they contributed more than 50% of the region’s particle number (ultrafine particles) and PM1 emissions. With the freight task in the region predicted to double over the next 20 years, this suggests that HDVs need to be a major focus of mitigation efforts. HDVs dominated particle number (ultrafine particles) and PM1 emissions; and LDV PM2.5 and PM10 emissions. Buses contributed approximately 1-2% of regional particle emissions.

A comparative study : regulatory requirements on subdivisions for increasing passive cooling

A major project in the Sustainable Built Assets core area is the Sustainable Sub-divisions – Ventilation Project that is the second stage of a planned series of research projects focusing on sustainable sub-divisions. The initial project, Sustainable Sub-divisions: Energy focused on energy efficiency and examined the link between dwelling energy efficiency and sub-divisional layout. In addition, the potential for on site electricity generation, especially in medium and high-density developments, was also examined. That project recommended that an existing lot-rating methodology be adapted for use in SEQ through the inclusion of sub divisional appropriate ventilation data. Acquiring that data is the object of this project. The Sustainable Sub-divisions; Ventilation Project will produce a series of reports. The first report (Report 2002-077-B-01) summarised the results from an industry workshop and interviews that were conducted to ascertain the current attitudes and methodologies used in contemporary sub-division design in South East Queensland. The second report (Report 2002-077-B-02) described how the project is being delivered as outlined in the Project Agreement. It included the selection of the case study dwellings and monitoring equipment and data management process. This third report (Report 2002-077-B-03) provides an analysis and review of the approaches recommended by leading experts, government bodies and professional organizations throughout Australia that aim to increase the potential for passive cooling and heating at the subdivision stage. This data will inform issues discussed on the development of the enhanced lot-rating methodology in other reports of this series. The final report, due in June 2007, will detail the analysis of data for winter 2006 and summer 2007, leading to the development and delivery of the enhanced lot-rating methodology.