An integrated rail track degradation model

There has been a worldwide trend to increase axle loads and train speeds. This means that railway track degradation will be accelerated, and track maintenance costs will be increased significantly. There is a need to investigate the consequences of increasing traffic load. The aim of the research is to develop a model for the analysis of physical degradation of railway tracks in response to changes in traffic parameters, especially increased axle loads and train speeds. This research has developed an integrated track degradation model (ITDM) by integrating several models into a comprehensive framework. Mechanistic relationships for track degradation hav~ ?een used wherever possible in each of the models contained in ITDM. This overcc:mes the deficiency of the traditional statistical track models which rely heavily on historical degradation data, which is generally not available in many railway systems. In addition statistical models lack the flexibility of incorporating future changes in traffic patterns or maintenance practices. The research starts with reviewing railway track related studies both in Australia and overseas to develop a comprehensive understanding of track performance under various traffic conditions. Existing railway related models are then examined for their suitability for track degradation analysis for Australian situations. The ITDM model is subsequently developed by modifying suitable existing models, and developing new models where necessary. The ITDM model contains four interrelated submodels for rails, sleepers, ballast and subgrade, and track modulus. The rail submodel is for rail wear analysis and is developed from a theoretical concept. The sleeper submodel is for timber sleepers damage prediction. The submodel is developed by modifying and extending an existing model developed elsewhere. The submodel has also incorporated an analysis for the likelihood of concrete sleeper cracking. The ballast and subgrade submodel is evolved from a concept developed in the USA. Substantial modifications and improvements have been made. The track modulus submodel is developed from a conceptual method. Corrections for more global track conditions have been made. The integration of these submodels into one comprehensive package has enabled the interaction between individual track components to be taken into account. This is done by calculating wheel load distribution with time and updating track conditions periodically in the process of track degradation simulation. A Windows-based computer program ~ssociated with ITDM has also been developed. The program enables the user to carry out analysis of degradation of individual track components and to investigate the inter relationships between these track components and their deterioration. The successful implementation of this research has provided essential information for prediction of increased maintenance as a consequence of railway trackdegradation. The model, having been presented at various conferences and seminars, has attracted wide interest. It is anticipated that the model will be put into practical use among Australian railways, enabling track maintenance planning to be optimized and potentially saving Australian railway systems millions of dollars in operating costs.

Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.

Implementation and evaluation of a new model of nursing practice in radiation oncology

Patients undergoing radiation therapy for cancer face a series of challenges that require support from a multidisciplinary team which includes radiation oncology nurses. However, the specific contribution of nursing, and the models of care that best support the delivery of nursing interventions in the radiotherapy setting, is not well described. In this case study, the Interaction Model of Client Health Behaviour and the associated principles of person-centred care were incorporated into a new model of care that was implemented in one radiation oncology setting in Brisbane, Australia. The new model of care was operationalised through a Primary Nursing/Collaborative Practice framework. To evaluate the impact of the new model for patients and health professionals, multiple sources of data were collected from patients and clinical staff prior to, during, and 18 months following introduction of the practice redesign. One cohort of patients and clinical staff completed surveys incorporating measures of key outcomes immediately prior to implementation of the model, while a second cohort of patients and clinical staff completed these same surveys 18 months following introduction of the model. In-depth interviews were also conducted with nursing, medical and allied health staff throughout the implementation phase to obtain a more comprehensive account of the processes and outcomes associated with implementing such a model. From the patients’ perspectives, this study demonstrated that, although adverse effects of radiotherapy continue to affect patient well-being, patients continue to be satisfied with nursing care in this specialty, and that they generally reported high levels of functioning despite undergoing a curative course of radiotherapy. From the health professionals’ perspective, there was evidence of attitudinal change by nursing staff within the radiotherapy department which reflected a greater understanding and appreciation of a more person-centred approach to care. Importantly, this case study has also confirmed that a range of factors need to be considered when redesigning nursing practice in the radiotherapy setting, as the challenges associated with changing traditional practices, ensuring multidisciplinary approaches to care, and resourcing a new model were experienced. The findings from this study suggest that the move from a relatively functional approach to a person-centred approach in the radiotherapy setting has contributed to some improvements in the provision of individualised and coordinated patient care. However, this study has also highlighted that primary nursing may be limited in its approach as a framework for patient care unless it is supported by a whole team approach, an appropriate supportive governance model, and sufficient resourcing. Introducing such a model thus requires effective education, preparation and ongoing support for the whole team. The challenges of providing care in the context of complex interdisciplinary relationships have been highlighted by this study. Aspects of this study may assist in planning further nursing interventions for patients undergoing radiotherapy for cancer, and continue to enhance the contribution of the radiation oncology nurse to improved patient outcomes.

A ‘cost-per-wear’ model based on contact lens replacement frequency

Purpose: The aim was to construct and advise on the use of a cost-per-wear model based on contact lens replacement frequency, to form an equitable basis for cost comparison. ---------- Methods: The annual cost of professional fees, contact lenses and solutions when wearing daily, two-weekly and monthly replacement contact lenses is determined in the context of the Australian market for spherical, toric and multifocal prescription types. This annual cost is divided by the number of times lenses are worn per year, resulting in a ‘cost-per-wear’. The model is presented graphically as the cost-per-wear versus the number of times lenses are worn each week for daily replacement and reusable (two-weekly and monthly replacement) lenses.---------- Results: The cost-per-wear for two-weekly and monthly replacement spherical lenses is almost identical but decreases with increasing frequency of wear. The cost-per-wear of daily replacement spherical lenses is lower than for reusable spherical lenses, when worn from one to four days per week but higher when worn six or seven days per week. The point at which the cost-per-wear is virtually the same for all three spherical lens replacement frequencies (approximately AUD$3.00) is five days of lens wear per week. A similar but upwardly displaced (higher cost) pattern is observed for toric lenses, with the cross-over point occurring between three and four days of wear per week (AUD$4.80). Multifocal lenses have the highest price, with cross-over points for daily versus two-weekly replacement lenses at between four and five days of wear per week (AUD$5.00) and for daily versus monthly replacement lenses at three days per week (AUD$5.50).---------- Conclusions: This cost-per-wear model can be used to assist practitioners and patients in making an informed decision in relation to the cost of contact lens wear as one of many considerations that must be taken into account when deciding on the most suitable lens replacement modality.

Diffusion tensor of water in model articular cartilage

We used Monte Carlo simulations of Brownian dynamics of water to study anisotropic water diffusion in an idealised model of articular cartilage. The main aim was to use the simulations as a tool for translation of the fractional anisotropy of the water diffusion tensor in cartilage into quantitative characteristics of its collagen fibre network. The key finding was a linear empirical relationship between the collagen volume fraction and the fractional anisotropy of the diffusion tensor. Fractional anisotropy of the diffusion tensor is potentially a robust indicator of the microstructure of the tissue because, in the first approximation, it is invariant to the inclusion of proteoglycans or chemical exchange between free and collagen-bound water in the model. We discuss potential applications of Monte Carlo diffusion-tensor simulations for quantitative biophysical interpretation of MRI diffusion-tensor images of cartilage. Extension of the model to include collagen fibre disorder is also discussed.

Validation of the MEASURE automobile emissions model : a statistical analysis

The Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE) model provides an external validation capability for hot stabilized option; the model is one of several new modal emissions models designed to predict hot stabilized emission rates for various motor vehicle groups as a function of the conditions under which the vehicles are operating. The validation of aggregate measurements, such as speed and acceleration profile, is performed on an independent data set using three statistical criteria. The MEASURE algorithms have proved to provide significant improvements in both average emission estimates and explanatory power over some earlier models for pollutants across almost every operating cycle tested.

Construction, application and validation of selection evaluation model (SEM) for intelligent HVAC control system

Design teams are confronted with the quandary of choosing apposite building control systems to suit the needs of particular intelligent building projects, due to the availability of innumerable ‘intelligent’ building products and a dearth of inclusive evaluation tools. This paper is organised to develop a model for facilitating the selection evaluation for intelligent HVAC control systems for commercial intelligent buildings. To achieve these objectives, systematic research activities have been conducted to first develop, test and refine the general conceptual model using consecutive surveys; then, to convert the developed conceptual framework into a practical model; and, finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model by means of expert validation. The results of the surveys are that ‘total energy use’ is perceived as the top selection criterion, followed by the‘system reliability and stability’, ‘operating and maintenance costs’, and ‘control of indoor humidity and temperature’. This research not only presents a systematic and structured approach to evaluate candidate intelligent HVAC control system against the critical selection criteria (CSC), but it also suggests a benchmark for the selection of one control system candidate against another.

Beyond a battery hen model? : a computer laboratory, micropolitics and educational change

This paper investigates what happened in one Australian primary school as part of the establishment, use and development of a computer laboratory over a period of two years. As part of a school renewal project, the computer lab was introduced as an ‘innovative’ way to improve the skills of teachers and children in information and communication technologies (ICT) and to lead to curriculum change. However, the way in which the lab was conceptualised and used worked against achieving these goals. The micropolitics of educational change and an input-output understanding of computers meant that change remained structural rather pedagogical or philosophical.

Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

An event-based traffic flow model for traffic control at railway junctions

This paper introduces an event-based traffic model for railway systems adopting fixed-block signalling schemes. In this model, the events of trains' arrival at and departure from signalling blocks constitute the states of the traffic flow. A state transition is equivalent to the progress of the trains by one signalling block and it is realised by referring to past and present states, as well as a number of pre-calculated look-up tables of run-times in the signalling block under various signalling conditions. Simulation results are compared with those from a time-based multi-train simulator to study the improvement of processing time and accuracy.

Managing process model collections with AProMoRe

As organizations reach higher levels of Business Process Management maturity, they tend to collect numerous business process models. Such models may be linked with each other or mutually overlap, supersede one another and evolve over time. Moreover, they may be represented at different abstraction levels depending on the target audience and modeling purpose, and may be available in multiple languages (e.g. due to company mergers). Thus, it is common that organizations struggle with keeping track of their process models. This demonstration introduces AProMoRe (Advanced Process Model Repository) which aims to facilitate the management of (large) process model collections.

Automating computational proofs for public-key-based key exchange

We present an approach to automating computationally sound proofs of key exchange protocols based on public-key encryption. We show that satisfying the property called occultness in the Dolev-Yao model guarantees the security of a related key exchange protocol in a simple computational model. Security in this simpler model has been shown to imply security in a Bellare {Rogaway-like model. Furthermore, the occultness in the Dolev-Yao model can be searched automatically by a mechanisable procedure. Thus automated proofs for key exchange protocols in the computational model can be achieved. We illustrate the method using the well-known Lowe-Needham-Schroeder protocol.

Efficient querying of large process model repositories

Recent years have seen an increased uptake of business process management technology in industries. This has resulted in organizations trying to manage large collections of business process models. One of the challenges facing these organizations concerns the retrieval of models from large business process model repositories. For example, in some cases new process models may be derived from existing models, thus finding these models and adapting them may be more effective and less error-prone than developing them from scratch. Since process model repositories may be large, query evaluation may be time consuming. Hence, we investigate the use of indexes to speed up this evaluation process. To make our approach more applicable, we consider the semantic similarity between labels. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate that our approach is efficient.

APROMORE : an advanced process model repository

Business process models are becoming available in large numbers due to their popular use in many industrial applications such as enterprise and quality engineering projects. On the one hand, this raises a challenge as to their proper management: How can it be ensured that the proper process model is always available to the interested stakeholder? On the other hand, the richness of a large set of process models also offers opportunities, for example with respect to the re-use of existing model parts for new models. This paper describes the functionalities and architecture of an advanced process model repository, named APROMORE. This tool brings together a rich set of features for the analysis, management and usage of large sets of process models, drawing from state-of-the art research in the field of process modeling. A prototype of the platform is presented in this paper, demonstrating its feasibility, as well as an outlook on the further development of APROMORE.

Influence of historic land use change on the biosphere-atmosphere-exchange of C and N trace gases in the humid, subtropical region of Queensland

Increases in atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) due to human activities have been linked to climate change. GHG emissions from land use change and agriculture have been identified as significant contributors to both Australia’s and the global GHG budget. This is expected to increase over the coming decades as rates of agriculture intensification and land use change accelerate to support population growth and food production. Limited data exists on CO2, CH4 and N2O trace gas fluxes from subtropical or tropical soils and land uses. To develop effective mitigation strategies a full global warming potential (GWP) accounting methodology is required that includes emissions of the three primary greenhouse gases. Mitigation strategies that focus on one gas only can inadvertently increase emissions of another. For this reason, detailed inventories of GHGs from soils and vegetation under individual land uses are urgently required for subtropical Australia. This study aimed to quantify GHG emissions over two consecutive years from three major land uses; a well-established, unfertilized subtropical grass-legume pasture, a 30 year (lychee) orchard and a remnant subtropical Gallery rainforest, all located near Mooloolah, Queensland. GHG fluxes were measured using a combination of high resolution automated sampling, coarser spatial manual sampling and laboratory incubations. Comparison between the land uses revealed that land use change can have a substantial impact on the GWP on a landscape long after the deforestation event. The conversion of rainforest to agricultural land resulted in as much as a 17 fold increase in GWP, from 251 kg CO2 eq. ha-1 yr-1 in the rainforest to 889 kg CO2 eq. ha-1 yr-1 in the pasture to 2538 kg CO2 eq. ha-1 yr-1 in the lychee plantation. This increase resulted from altered N cycling and a reduction in the aerobic capacity of the soil in the pasture and lychee systems, enhancing denitrification and nitrification events, and reducing atmospheric CH4 uptake in the soil. High infiltration, drainage and subsequent soil aeration under the rainforest limited N2O loss, as well as promoting CH4 uptake of 11.2 g CH4-C ha-1 day-1. This was among the highest reported for rainforest systems, indicating that aerated subtropical rainforests can act as substantial sink of CH4. Interannual climatic variation resulted in significantly higher N2O emission from the pasture during 2008 (5.7 g N2O-N ha day) compared to 2007 (3.9 g N2O-N ha day), despite receiving nearly 500 mm less rainfall. Nitrous oxide emissions from the pasture were highest during the summer months and were highly episodic, related more to the magnitude and distribution of rain events rather than soil moisture alone. Mean N2O emissions from the lychee plantation increased from an average of 4.0 g N2O-N ha-1 day-1, to 19.8 g N2O-N ha-1 day-1 following a split application of N fertilizer (560 kg N ha-1, equivalent to 1 kg N tree-1). The timing of the split application was found to be critical to N2O emissions, with over twice as much lost following an application in spring (emission factor (EF): 1.79%) compared to autumn (EF: 0.91%). This was attributed to the hot and moist climatic conditions and a reduction in plant N uptake during the spring creating conditions conducive to N2O loss. These findings demonstrate that land use change in subtropical Australia can be a significant source of GHGs. Moreover, the study shows that modifying the timing of fertilizer application can be an efficient way of reducing GHG emissions from subtropical horticulture.