Assessment of flood-related recharge to alluvial aquifers of an irrigated catchment following extended drought conditions using 3D visualisation and environmental tracers, Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland, Australia.

The Lockyer Valley in southeast Queensland, Australia, hosts an economically significant alluvial aquifer system which has been impacted by prolonged drought conditions (~1997 to ~ 2009). Throughout this time, the system was under continued groundwater extraction, resulting in severe aquifer depletion. By 2008, much of the aquifer was at <30% of storage but some relief occurred with rains in early 2009. However, between December 2010 and January 2011, most of southeast Queensland experienced unprecedented flooding, which generated significant aquifer recharge. In order to understand the spatial and temporal controls of groundwater recharge in the alluvium, a detailed 3D lithological property model of gravels, sands and clays was developed using GOCAD software. The spatial distribution of recharge throughout the catchment was assessed using hydrograph data from about 400 groundwater observation wells screened at the base of the alluvium. Water levels from these bores were integrated into a catchment-wide 3D geological model using the 3D geological modelling software GOCAD; the model highlights the complexity of recharge mechanisms. To support this analysis, groundwater tracers (e.g. major and minor ions, stable isotopes, 3H and 14C) were used as independent verification. The use of these complementary methods has allowed the identification of zones where alluvial recharge primarily occurs from stream water during episodic flood events. However, the study also demonstrates that in some sections of the alluvium, rainfall recharge and discharge from the underlying basement into the alluvium are the primary recharge mechanisms of the alluvium. This is indicated by the absence of any response to the flood, as well as the observed old radiocarbon ages and distinct basement water chemistry signatures at these locations. Within the 3D geological model, integration of water chemistry and time-series displays of water level surfaces before and after the flood suggests that the spatial variations of the flood response in the alluvium are primarily controlled by the valley morphology and lithological variations within the alluvium. The integration of time-series of groundwater level surfaces in the 3D geological model also enables the quantification of the volumetric change of groundwater stored in the unconfined sections of this alluvial aquifer during drought and following flood events. The 3D representation and analysis of hydraulic and recharge information has considerable advantages over the traditional 2D approach. For example, while many studies focus on singular aspects of catchment dynamics and groundwater-surface water interactions, the 3D approach is capable of integrating multiple types of information (topography, geological, hydraulic, water chemistry and spatial) into a single representation which provides valuable insights into the major factors controlling aquifer processes.

Women, alcohol and pregnancy

This paper examines a history of knowledge from Greek times regarding the possible teratogenic effect of alcohol. Literature on the topic up to the early 1980s is included and some recommendations are suggested.

Intrapleural analgesia following endoscopic scoliosis correction

Endoscopic (thoracoscopic) scoliosis correction plays an important part in the surgical options available for treating adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. However, there is a paucity of literature examining optimum methods of analgesia following this type of surgery. Intra-pleural analgesia has been successfully used following cardiothoracic procedures [1-3]. The role of intra-pleural analgesia after keyhole anterior selective thoracic scoliosis correction is examined and described.

CT and X-Ray analysis of sagittal curve changes following thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis surgery

Normal thoracic kyphosis Cobb angle for T5-T12 is most commonly reported as a range of 20-40º [1]. Patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) exhibit a reduced thoracic kyphosis or hypokyphosis [2] accompanying the coronal and rotary distortion components. As a result, surgical restoration of the thoracic kyphosis while maintaining lumbar lordosis and overall sagittal balance is a critical aspect of achieving good clinical outcomes in AIS patients. Previous studies report an increase in thoracic kyphosis after anterior surgical approaches [3] and a flattening of sagittal contours following posterior approaches [4]. Difficulties with measuring sagittal parameters on radiographs are avoided with reformatted sagittal CT reconstructions due to the superior endplate clarity afforded by this imaging modality and are the subject of analysis in this study.

A cross sectional observational study of child restraint use in Queensland following changes in legislation

As part of an evaluation of the 2010 legislation for child vehicle occupants in Queensland, road-side observations of private passenger vehicles were used to estimate the proportions of children 0-under 7 years travelling in each of the 5 different restraint types (eg. forward facing child restraint). Data was collected in 4 major population centres: Brisbane, Sunshine Coast, Mackay and Townsville. Almost all children were restrained (95.1%, 95% CI 94.3-95.9%), with only 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.0%) clearly unrestrained and 44 (1.6%, 95% CI 1.1-2.1%) for whom restraint status could not be determined (‘unknown’). However, around 24.0% (95 CI 21.8-26.2%) of the target-aged children were deemed inappropriately restrained, primarily comprised of 3-6 year olds in seatbelts (18.7% of the 0-6 year olds, 95% CI 16.3-21.1%) or unrestrained (3.7% of the 0-6 year olds, 95% CI 2.5-4.9%) instead of booster seats. In addition, compliance appeared significantly lower for some regional locations where the proportion of children observed as completely unrestrained was relatively high and of concern

Leucocytes, cytokines and satellite cells : what role do they play in muscle damage and regeneration following eccentric exercise?

Exercise-induced muscle damage is an important topic in exercise physiology. However several aspects of our understanding of how muscles respond to highly stressful exercise remain unclear In the first section of this review we address the evidence that exercise can cause muscle damage and inflammation in otherwise healthy human skeletal muscles. We approach this concept by comparing changes in muscle function (i.e., the force-generating capacity) with the degree of leucocyte accumulation in muscle following exercise. In the second section, we explore the cytokine response to 'muscle-damaging exercise', primarily eccentric exercise. We review the evidence for the notion that the degree of muscle damage is related to the magnitude of the cytokine response. In the third and final section, we look at the satellite cell response to a single bout of eccentric exercise, as well as the role of the cyclooxygenase enzymes (COX1 and 2). In summary, we propose that muscle damage as evaluated by changes in muscle function is related to leucocyte accumulation in the exercised muscles. 'Extreme' exercise protocols, encompassing unaccustomed maximal eccentric exercise across a large range of motion, generally inflict severe muscle damage, inflammation and prolonged recovery (> 1 week). By contrast, exercise resembling regular athletic training (resistance exercise and downhill running) typically causes mild muscle damage (myofibrillar disruptions) and full recovery normally occurs within a few days. Large variation in individual responses to a given exercise should, however be expected. The link between cytokine and satellite cell responses and exercise-induced muscle damage is not so clear The systemic cytokine response may be linked more closely to the metabolic demands of exercise rather than muscle damage. With the exception of IL-6, the sources of systemic cytokines following exercise remain unclear The satellite cell response to severe muscle damage is related to regeneration, whereas the biological significance of satellite cell proliferation after mild damage or non-damaging exercise remains uncertain. The COX enzymes regulate satellite cell activity, as demonstrated in animal models; however the roles of the COX enzymes in human skeletal muscle need further investigation. We suggest using the term 'muscle damage' with care. Comparisons between studies and individuals must consider changes in and recovery of muscle force-generating capacity.

Evaluation of the GHR car following model for traffic safety studies

Traffic safety studies mandate more than what existing micro-simulation models can offer as they postulate that every driver exhibits a safe behaviour. All the microscopic traffic simulation models are consisting of a car-following model and the Gazis–Herman–Rothery (GHR) car-following model is a widely used model. This paper highlights the limitations of the GHR car-following model capability to model longitudinal driving behaviour for safety study purposes. This study reviews and compares different version of the GHR model. To empower the GHR model on precise metrics reproduction a new set of car-following model parameters is offered to simulate unsafe vehicle conflicts. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the new model and short following headways and Time to Collision are employed to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. Risky events are extracted from available NGSIM data to evaluate the modified model against the generic versions of the GHR model. The results from simulation tests illustrate that the proposed model does predict the safety metrics better than the generic GHR model. Additionally it can potentially facilitate assessing and predicting traffic facilities’ safety using microscopic simulation. The new model can predict Near-miss rear-end crashes.

Pregnancy losses in young Australian women : findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

INTRODUCTION: Little research has examined recognized pregnancy losses in a general population. Data from an Australian cohort study provide an opportunity to quantify this aspect of fecundity at a population level. METHOD: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who were aged 28-33 years in 2006 (n = 9,145) completed up to 4 mailed surveys over 10 years. Participants were categorized according to the recognized outcome of their pregnancies, including live birth, miscarriage/stillbirth, termination/ectopic, or no pregnancy. RESULTS: At age 18-23, more women reported terminations (7%) than miscarriages (4%). By 28-33 years, the cumulative frequency of miscarriage (15%) was as common as termination (16%). For women aged 28-33 years who had ever been pregnant (n = 5,343), pregnancy outcomes were as follows: birth only (50%); loss only (18%); and birth and loss (32%), of which half (16%) were birth and miscarriage. A comparison between first miscarriage and first birth (no miscarriage) showed that most first miscarriages occurred in women aged 18-23 years who also reported a first birth at the same survey (15%). Half (51%) of all first births and first miscarriages in women aged 18-19 ended in miscarriage. Early childbearers (<28 years) often had miscarriages around the same time period as their first live birth, suggesting proactive family formation. Delayed childbearers (32-33 years) had more first births than first miscarriages. CONCLUSION: Recognized pregnancy losses are an important measure of fecundity in the general population because they indicate successful conception and maintenance of pregnancy to varying reproductive endpoints.

Challenges for researchers investigating contraceptive use and pregnancy intentions of young women living in urban and rural Australia : face-to-face discussions to increase participation in a web-based survey

Background: It is imperative to understand how to engage young women in research about issues that are important to them. There is limited reliable data on how young women access contraception in Australia especially in rural areas where services may be less available. Objective: This paper identifies the challenges involved in engaging young Australian women aged 18-23 years to participate in a web-based survey on contraception and pregnancy and ensure their ongoing commitment to follow-up web-based surveys. Methods: A group of young women, aged 18-23 years and living in urban and rural New South Wales, Australia, were recruited to participate in face-to-face discussions using several methods of recruitment: direct contact (face-to-face, telephone or email)and snowball sampling by potential participants inviting their friends. All discussions were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results: Twenty young women participated (urban, n=10: mean age 21.6 years; rural, n=10: 20.0 years) and all used computers or smart phones to access the internet on a daily basis. All participants were concerned about the cost of internet access and utilized free access to social media on their mobile phones. Their willingness to participate in a web-based survey was dependent on incentives with a preference for small financial rewards. Most participants were concerned about their personal details and survey responses remaining confidential and secure. The most appropriate survey would take up to 15 minutes to complete, be a mix of short and long questions and eye-catching with bright colours. Questions on the sensitive topics of sexual activity, contraception and pregnancy were acceptable if they could respond with “I prefer not to answer”. Conclusions: There are demographic, participation and survey design challenges in engaging young women in a web-based survey. Based on our findings, future research efforts are needed to understand the full extent of the role social media and incentives play in the decision of young women to participate in web-based research.

Aging and its effect on inflammation in skeletal muscle at rest and following exercise-induced muscle injury

Aging and its effects on inflammation in skeletal muscle at rest and following exercise-induced muscle injury. Am J Physiol Regul Integr Comp Physiol 298: R1485-R1495, 2010. First published April 14, 2010; doi:10.1152/ajpregu.00467.2009.-The world's elderly population is expanding rapidly, and we are now faced with the significant challenge of maintaining or improving physical activity, independence, and quality of life in the elderly. Counteracting the progressive loss of muscle mass that occurs in the elderly, known as sarcopenia, represents a major hurdle in achieving these goals. Indirect evidence for a role of inflammation in sarcopenia is that markers of systemic inflammation correlate with the loss of muscle mass and strength in the elderly. More direct evidence is that compared with skeletal muscle of young people, the number of macrophages is lower, the gene expression of several cytokines is higher, and stress signaling proteins are activated in skeletal muscle of elderly people at rest. Sarcopenia may also result from inadequate repair and chronic maladaptation following muscle injury in the elderly. Macrophage infiltration and the gene expression of certain cytokines are reduced in skeletal muscle of elderly people compared with young people following exercise-induced muscle injury. Further research is required to identify the cause(s) of inflammation in skeletal muscle of elderly people. Additional work is also needed to expand our understanding of the cells, proteins, and transcription factors that regulate inflammation in the skeletal muscle of elderly people at rest and after exercise. This knowledge is critical for devising strategies to restrict sarcopenia, and improve the health of today's elderly population.

Corneal changes following near work in myopic anisometropia

PURPOSE: To examine the symmetry of corneal changes following near work in the fellow eyes of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes. METHODS: Thirty-four non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes (minimum 1 D spherical equivalent anisometropia) were recruited. Corneal topography was measured with the Medmont E300 Videokeratoscope before and after a controlled near task. Subjects were positioned to minimise head movements and read continuous text on a computer monitor for 10 minutes at an angle of 25 degrees downward gaze and an accommodation demand of 2.5 D. Measures of palpebral aperture morphology during primary and downward gaze were also obtained using digital photography and analysed with customised software. RESULTS: Significant changes in corneal topography were observed after ten minutes of reading. Localised superior regions of corneal topographical change (a hyperopic shift in corneal power) were typically exhibited in both eyes following the near task. The mean change in the corneal sphero-cylinder was +0.02/-0.11 x 113 and +0.02/-0.06 x 68 for the more and less myopic eyes respectively for a 6 mm corneal diameter. A significantly greater change in corneal astigmatism power vector J0 (a larger increase in against the rule astigmatism) was observed in the more myopic eyes (p < 0.01 for a 6 mm diameter). The more and less myopic eyes exhibited a high degree of interocular symmetry for measures of palpebral aperture morphology during both primary and downward gaze. Changes in corneal power vectors following reading were associated with eyelid position during downward gaze. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in corneal topography observed following a controlled reading task were highly symmetrical between the fellow eyes of myopic anisometropes due to the interocular symmetry of the palpebral aperture. However, the more myopic eye did exhibit a small but significantly greater magnitude of change in corneal astigmatism compared to the less myopic eye following reading. These findings may have implications for understanding the mechanism of development of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropia.

Comparison and modification of car following models toward a more accurate microscopic simulation parameters reproduction

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers of motor vehicles exhibit safe behaviours. Several car-following models are used in various micro-simulation models. This research compares the mainstream car following models’ capabilities of emulating precise driver behaviour parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison firstly illustrates which model is more robust in the metric reproduction. Secondly, the study conducted a series of sensitivity tests to further explore the behaviour of each model. Based on the outcome of these two steps exploration of the models, a modified structure and parameters adjustment for each car-following model is proposed to simulate more realistic vehicle movements, particularly headways and Time to Collision, below a certain critical threshold. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the modified models performance to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. The simulation tests outcomes indicate that the proposed modified models produce better frequency of critical Time to Collision than the generic models, while the improvement on the headway is not significant. The outcome of this paper facilitates traffic safety assessment using microscopic simulation.

Exercise for health : a randomized, controlled trial evaluating impact of a pragmatic, translational exercise intervention on quality of life, function and treatment-related side effects following breast cancer

Purpose Exercise for Health was a randomized, controlled trial designed to evaluate two modes of delivering (face-to-face [FtF] and over-the-telephone [Tel]) an 8-month translational exercise intervention, commencing 6-weeks post-breast cancer surgery (PS). Methods Outcomes included quality of life (QoL), function (fitness and upper-body) and treatment-related side effects (fatigue, lymphoedema, body mass index, menopausal symptoms, anxiety, depression and pain). Generalised estimating equation modelling determined time (baseline [5-weeks PS], mid-intervention [6-months PS], post-intervention [12-months PS]), group (FtF, Tel, Usual Care [UC]) and time-by-group effects. 194 women representative of the breast cancer population were randomised to the FtF (n=67), Tel (n=67) and UC (n=60) groups. Results: There were significant (p<0.05) interaction effects on QoL, fitness and fatigue, with differences being observed between the treatment groups and the UC group. Trends observed for the treatment groups were similar. The treatment groups reported improved QoL, fitness and fatigue over time and changes observed between baseline and post-intervention were clinically relevant. In contrast, the UC group experienced no change, or worsening QoL, fitness and fatigue, mid-intervention. Although improvements in the UC group occurred by 12-months post-surgery, the change did not meet the clinically relevant threshold. There were no differences in other treatment-related side-effects between groups. Conclusion This translational intervention trial, delivered either face-to-face or over-the-telephone, supports exercise as a form of adjuvant breast cancer therapy that can prevent declines in fitness and function during treatment and optimise recovery post-treatment.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.

Risk factors to predict the incidence of surgical adverse events following open or laparoscopic surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer: results from a randomised controlled trial

Aims: To identify risk factors for major Adverse Events (AEs) and to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of such AEs in individual patients who have surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: We used data from 753 patients who were randomized to either total laparoscopic hysterectomy or total abdominal hysterectomy in the LACE trial. Serious adverse events that prolonged hospital stay or postoperative adverse events (using common terminology criteria 3+, CTCAE V3) were considered major AEs. We analyzed pre-surgical characteristics that were associated with the risk of developing major AEs by multivariate logistic regression. We identified a parsimonious model by backward stepwise logistic regression. The six most significant or clinically important variables were included in the nomogram to predict the risk of major AEs within 6 weeks of surgery and the nomogram was internally validated. Results: Overall, 132 (17.5%) patients had at least one major AE. An open surgical approach (laparotomy), higher Charlson’s medical co-morbidities score, moderately differentiated tumours on curettings, higher baseline ECOG score, higher body mass index and low haemoglobin levels were associated with AE and were used in the nomogram. The bootstrap corrected concordance index of the nomogram was 0.63 and it showed good calibration. Conclusions: Six pre-surgical factors independently predicted the risk of major AEs. This research might form the basis to develop risk reduction strategies to minimize the risk of AEs among patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer.