Interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms exploring the Titanic and Lusitania disasters

To understand human behavior, it is important to know under what conditions people deviate from selfish rationality. This study explores the interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms using data on the sinking of the Titanic and the Lusitania. We show that time pressure appears to be crucial when explaining behavior under extreme conditions of life and death. Even though the two vessels and the composition of their passengers were quite similar, the behavior of the individuals on board was dramatically different. On the Lusitania, selfish behavior dominated (which corresponds to the classical homo oeconomicus); on the Titanic, social norms and social status (class) dominated, which contradicts standard economics. This difference could be attributed to the fact that the Lusitania sank in 18 minutes, creating a situation in which the short-run flight impulse dominates behavior. On the slowly sinking Titanic (2 hours, 40 minutes), there was time for socially determined behavioral patterns to re-emerge. To our knowledge, this is the first time that these shipping disasters have been analyzed in a comparative manner with advanced statistical (econometric) techniques using individual data of the passengers and crew. Knowing human behavior under extreme conditions allows us to gain insights about how varied human behavior can be depending on differing external conditions.

Estimation of WGEN Weather Generation Parameters in Arid Climates

This research discusses some of the issues encountered while developing a set of WGEN parameters for Chile and advice for others interested in developing WGEN parameters for arid climates. The WGEN program is a commonly used and a valuable research tool; however, it has specific limitations in arid climates that need careful consideration. These limitations are analysed in the context of generating a set of WGEN parameters for Chile. Fourteen to 26 years of precipitation data are used to calculate precipitation parameters for 18 locations in Chile, and 3–8 years of temperature and solar radiation data are analysed to generate parameters for seven of these locations. Results indicate that weather generation parameters in arid regions are sensitive to erroneous or missing precipitation data. Research shows that the WGEN-estimated gamma distribution shape parameter (α) for daily precipitation in arid zones will tend to cluster around discrete values of 0 or 1, masking the high sensitivity of these parameters to additional data. Rather than focus on the length in years when assessing the adequacy of a data record for estimation of precipitation parameters, researchers should focus on the number of wet days in dry months in a data set. Analysis of the WGEN routines for the estimation of temperature and solar radiation parameters indicates that errors can occur when individual ‘months’ have fewer than two wet days in the data set. Recommendations are provided to improve methods for estimation of WGEN parameters in arid climates.

Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.

Building a methodology for context-aware business processes: insights from an exploratory case study

This paper describes the findings derived from an exploratory case study into the business processes at a leading Australian insurance provider. The business processes are frequently subjected to changes and deviations due to contextual events such as weather, financial conditions and others. In this study, we examine how context impacts business processes and how resulting business process changes are enacted. From our analysis, we suggest a methodological framework to guide organisations in the complex challenge of linking changing contextual factors with internal process design.

Reference bias : presentation of extreme health states prior to EQ-VAS improves health-related quality of life scores. A randomised crossover trial.

Background: Clinical practice and clinical research has made a concerted effort to move beyond the use of clinical indicators alone and embrace patient focused care through the use of patient reported outcomes such as healthrelated quality of life. However, unless patients give consistent consideration to the health states that give meaning to measurement scales used to evaluate these constructs, longitudinal comparison of these measures may be invalid. This study aimed to investigate whether patients give consideration to a standard health state rating scale (EQ-VAS) and whether consideration of good and poor health state descriptors immediately changes their selfreport. Methods: A randomised crossover trial was implemented amongst hospitalised older adults (n = 151). Patients were asked to consider descriptions of extremely good (Description-A) and poor (Description-B) health states. The EQ-VAS was administered as a self-report at baseline, after the first descriptors (A or B), then again after the remaining descriptors (B or A respectively). At baseline patients were also asked if they had considered either EQVAS anchors. Results: Overall 106/151 (70%) participants changed their self-evaluation by ≥5 points on the 100 point VAS, with a mean (SD) change of +4.5 (12) points (p < 0.001). A total of 74/151 (49%) participants did not consider the best health VAS anchor, of the 77 who did 59 (77%) thought the good health descriptors were more extreme (better) then they had previously considered. Similarly 85/151 (66%) participants did not consider the worst health anchor of the 66 who did 63 (95%) thought the poor health descriptors were more extreme (worse) then they had previously considered. Conclusions: Health state self-reports may not be well considered. An immediate significant shift in response can be elicited by exposure to a mere description of an extreme health state despite no actual change in underlying health state occurring. Caution should be exercised in research and clinical settings when interpreting subjective patient reported outcomes that are dependent on brief anchors for meaning. Trial Registration: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (#ACTRN12607000606482) http://www.anzctr. org.au

Measuring falls events in acute hospitals-A comparison of three reporting methods to identify missing data in the hospital reporting system

OBJECTIVES: To compare three different methods of falls reporting and examine the characteristics of the data missing from the hospital incident reporting system. DESIGN: Fourteen-month prospective observational study nested within a randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Rehabilitation, stroke, medical, surgical, and orthopedic wards in Perth and Brisbane, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Fallers (n5153) who were part of a larger trial (1,206 participants, mean age 75.1 � 11.0). MEASUREMENTS: Three falls events reporting measures: participants’ self-report of fall events, fall events reported in participants’ case notes, and falls events reported through the hospital reporting systems. RESULTS: The three reporting systems identified 245 falls events in total. Participants’ case notes captured 226 (92.2%) falls events, hospital incident reporting systems captured 185 (75.5%) falls events, and participant selfreport captured 147 (60.2%) falls events. Falls events were significantly less likely to be recorded in hospital reporting systems when a participant sustained a subsequent fall, (P5.01) or when the fall occurred in the morning shift (P5.01) or afternoon shift (P5.01). CONCLUSION: Falls data missing from hospital incident report systems are not missing completely at random and therefore will introduce bias in some analyses if the factor investigated is related to whether the data ismissing.Multimodal approaches to collecting falls data are preferable to relying on a single source alone.

The largest volcanic eruptions on Earth

Large igneous provinces (LIPs) are sites of the most frequently recurring, largest volume basaltic and silicic eruptions in Earth history. These large-volume (N1000 km3 dense rock equivalent) and large-magnitude (NM8) eruptions produce areally extensive (104–105 km2) basaltic lava flow fields and silicic ignimbrites that are the main building blocks of LIPs. Available information on the largest eruptive units are primarily from the Columbia River and Deccan provinces for the dimensions of flood basalt eruptions, and the Paraná–Etendeka and Afro-Arabian provinces for the silicic ignimbrite eruptions. In addition, three large-volume (675– 2000 km3) silicic lava flows have also been mapped out in the Proterozoic Gawler Range province (Australia), an interpreted LIP remnant. Magma volumes of N1000 km3 have also been emplaced as high-level basaltic and rhyolitic sills in LIPs. The data sets indicate comparable eruption magnitudes between the basaltic and silicic eruptions, but due to considerable volumes residing as co-ignimbrite ash deposits, the current volume constraints for the silicic ignimbrite eruptions may be considerably underestimated. Magma composition thus appears to be no barrier to the volume of magma emitted during an individual eruption. Despite this general similarity in magnitude, flood basaltic and silicic eruptions are very different in terms of eruption style, duration, intensity, vent configuration, and emplacement style. Flood basaltic eruptions are dominantly effusive and Hawaiian–Strombolian in style, with magma discharge rates of ~106–108 kg s−1 and eruption durations estimated at years to tens of years that emplace dominantly compound pahoehoe lava flow fields. Effusive and fissural eruptions have also emplaced some large-volume silicic lavas, but discharge rates are unknown, and may be up to an order of magnitude greater than those of flood basalt lava eruptions for emplacement to be on realistic time scales (b10 years). Most silicic eruptions, however, are moderately to highly explosive, producing co-current pyroclastic fountains (rarely Plinian) with discharge rates of 109– 1011 kg s−1 that emplace welded to rheomorphic ignimbrites. At present, durations for the large-magnitude silicic eruptions are unconstrained; at discharge rates of 109 kg s−1, equivalent to the peak of the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption, the largest silicic eruptions would take many months to evacuate N5000 km3 of magma. The generally simple deposit structure is more suggestive of short-duration (hours to days) and high intensity (~1011 kg s−1) eruptions, perhaps with hiatuses in some cases. These extreme discharge rates would be facilitated by multiple point, fissure and/or ring fracture venting of magma. Eruption frequencies are much elevated for large-magnitude eruptions of both magma types during LIP-forming episodes. However, in basaltdominated provinces (continental and ocean basin flood basalt provinces, oceanic plateaus, volcanic rifted margins), large magnitude (NM8) basaltic eruptions have much shorter recurrence intervals of 103–104 years, whereas similar magnitude silicic eruptions may have recurrence intervals of up to 105 years. The Paraná– Etendeka province was the site of at least nine NM8 silicic eruptions over an ~1 Myr period at ~132 Ma; a similar eruption frequency, although with a fewer number of silicic eruptions is also observed for the Afro- Arabian Province. The huge volumes of basaltic and silicic magma erupted in quick succession during LIP events raises several unresolved issues in terms of locus of magma generation and storage (if any) in the crust prior to eruption, and paths and rates of ascent from magma reservoirs to the surface.

Cytochrome p450 isozyme protein verified in the skin of southern hemisphere humpback whales (megaptera novaeangliae) : implications for biochemical biomarker assessment

Large mysticete whales represent a unique challenge for chemical risk assessment. Few epidemiological investigations are possible due to the low incidence of adult stranding events. Similarly their often extreme life-history adaptations of prolonged migration and fasting challenge exposure assumptions. Molecular biomarkers offer the potential to complement information yielded through tissue chemical analysis, as well as providing evidence of a molecular response to chemical exposure. In this study we confirm the presence of cytochrome P450 reductase (CPR) and cytochrome P450 isoenzyme 1A1 (CYP1A1) in epidermal tissue of southern hemisphere humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). The detection of CYP1A1 in the integument of the humpback whale affords the opportunity for further quantitative non-destructive investigations of enzyme activity as a function of chemical stress.

Wild weather hampers Brisbane’s popular CityCat services

The heavy rain falls that we have been experiencing have had their impact on the public transport system, especially the ferries. September 2010 was the Brisbane area’s wettest on record, and early to mid October has shaped up much the same. So much so that the South East Queensland’s main water storages, the Wivenhoe and Somerset Dams, which are fed by the Stanley and Brisbane Rivers’ upper catchments, have filled to capacity. SEQ Water consequently released the floodgates on the Wivenhoe Dam for the first time in almost a decade, with bipartisan support of State and Local Governments.

Developing an intimate ''relationship'' with nature through extreme sports participation

This article explores the interplay between extreme sports and the natural world in which they take place. Prior theoretical work on extreme sports has often made anthropocentric assumptions about this relationship, taking for granted that extreme participants treat nature only as a resource for athletic consumption, valuable only for its human uses. From this perspective, the natural world is regarded as a playground or battlefield, as a means to test physical prowess and human capacity. In contrast, extreme sports participants involved in this study report developing an intimate and reciprocal relationship with the natural world. A phenomenological analysis of participant accounts reveals, among veteran extreme athletes, the development of a heightened respect for something greater than themselves and a realization that humanity is simply a part of the natural environment.