Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

Novel methods and the maximum likelihood estimation technique for estimating traffic critical gap

Most unsignalised intersection capacity calculation procedures are based on gap acceptance models. Accuracy of critical gap estimation affects accuracy of capacity and delay estimation. Several methods have been published to estimate drivers’ sample mean critical gap, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) technique regarded as the most accurate. This study assesses three novel methods; Average Central Gap (ACG) method, Strength Weighted Central Gap method (SWCG), and Mode Central Gap method (MCG), against MLE for their fidelity in rendering true sample mean critical gaps. A Monte Carlo event based simulation model was used to draw the maximum rejected gap and accepted gap for each of a sample of 300 drivers across 32 simulation runs. Simulation mean critical gap is varied between 3s and 8s, while offered gap rate is varied between 0.05veh/s and 0.55veh/s. This study affirms that MLE provides a close to perfect fit to simulation mean critical gaps across a broad range of conditions. The MCG method also provides an almost perfect fit and has superior computational simplicity and efficiency to the MLE. The SWCG method performs robustly under high flows; however, poorly under low to moderate flows. Further research is recommended using field traffic data, under a variety of minor stream and major stream flow conditions for a variety of minor stream movement types, to compare critical gap estimates using MLE against MCG. Should the MCG method prove as robust as MLE, serious consideration should be given to its adoption to estimate critical gap parameters in guidelines.

Proteomics science & society : the role of knowledge translation in moving towards clinical applications

Background: Outside the mass-spectrometer, proteomics research does not take place in a vacuum. It is affected by policies on funding and research infrastructure. Proteomics research both impacts and is impacted by potential clinical applications. It provides new techniques & clinically relevant findings, but the possibilities for such innovations (and thus the perception of the potential for the field by funders) are also impacted by regulatory practices and the readiness of the health sector to incorporate proteomics-related tools & findings. Key to this process is how knowledge is translated. Methods: We present preliminary results from a multi-year social science project, funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, on the processes and motivations for knowledge translation in the health sciences. The proteomics case within this wider study uses qualitative methods to examine the interplay between proteomics science and regulatory and policy makers regarding clinical applications of proteomics. Results: Adopting an interactive format to encourage conference attendees’ feedback, our poster focuses on deficits in effective knowledge translation strategies from the laboratory to policy, clinical, & regulatory arenas. An analysis of the interviews conducted to date suggests five significant choke points: the changing priorities of funding agencies; the complexity of proteomics research; the organisation of proteomics research; the relationship of proteomics to genomics and other omics sciences; and conflict over the appropriate role of standardisation. Conclusion: We suggest that engagement with aspects of knowledge translation, such as those mentioned above, is crucially important for the eventual clinical application ofproteomics science on any meaningful scale.

Moving beyond transition pedagogy: Maturity models and student engagement

Australian higher education institutions (HEIs) have entered a new phase of regulation and accreditation which includes performance-based funding relating to the participation and retention of students from social and cultural groups previously underrepresented in higher education. However, in addressing these priorities, it is critical that HEIs do not further disadvantage students from certain groups by identifying them for attention because of their social or cultural backgrounds, circumstances which are largely beyond the control of students. In response, many HEIs are focusing effort on university-wide approaches to enhancing the student experience because such approaches will enhance the engagement, success and retention of all students, and in doing so, particularly benefit those students who come from underrepresented groups. Measuring and benchmarking student experiences and engagement that arise from these efforts is well supported by extensive collections of student experience survey data. However no comparable instrument exists that measures the capability of institutions to influence and/or enhance student experiences where capability is an indication of how well an organisational process does what it is designed to do (Rosemann & de Bruin, 2005). This paper proposes that the concept of a maturity model (Marshall, 2010; Paulk, 1999) may be useful as a way of assessing the capability of HEIs to provide and implement student engagement, success and retention activities. We will describe the Student Engagement, Success and Retention Maturity Model (SESR-MM), (Clarke, Nelson & Stoodley, 2012; Nelson, Clarke & Stoodley, 2012) we are currently investigating. We will discuss if our research may address the current gap by facilitating the development of an SESR-MM instrument that aims (i) to enable institutions to assess the capability of their current student engagement and retention programs and strategies to influence and respond to student experiences within the institution; and (ii) to provide institutions with the opportunity to understand various practices across the sector with a view to further improving programs and practices relevant to their context. The first aim of our research is to extend the generational approach which has been useful in considering the evolutionary nature of the first year experience (FYE) (Wilson, 2009). Three generations have been identified and explored: First generation approaches that focus on co-curricular strategies (e.g. orientation and peer programs); Second generation approaches that focus on curriculum (e.g. pedagogy, curriculum design, and learning and teaching practice); and third generation approaches—also referred to as transition pedagogy—that focus on the production of an institution-wide integrated holistic intentional blend of curricular and co-curricular activities (Kift, Nelson & Clarke, 2010). The second aim of this research is to move beyond assessments of students’ experiences to focus on assessing institutional processes and their capability to influence student engagement. In essence, we propose to develop and use the maturity model concept to produce an instrument that will indicate the capability of HEIs to manage and improve student engagement, success and retention programs and strategies. References Australian Council for Educational Research. (n.d.). Australasian Survey of Student Engagement. Retrieved from http://www.acer.edu.au/research/ausse/background Clarke, J., Nelson, K., & Stoodley, I. (2012, July). The Maturity Model concept as framework for assessing the capability of higher education institutions to address student engagement, success and retention: New horizon or false dawn? A Nuts & Bolts presentation at the 15th International Conference on the First Year in Higher Education, “New Horizons,” Brisbane, Australia. Kift, S., Nelson, K., & Clarke, J. (2010) Transition pedagogy - a third generation approach to FYE: A case study of policy and practice for the higher education sector. The International Journal of the First Year in Higher Education, 1(1), pp. 1-20. Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations. (n.d.). The University Experience Survey. Advancing quality in higher education information sheet. Retrieved from http://www.deewr.gov.au/HigherEducation/Policy/Documents/University_Experience_Survey.pdf Marshall, S. (2010). A quality framework for continuous improvement of e-Learning: The e-Learning Maturity Model. Journal of Distance Education, 24(1), 143-166. Nelson, K., Clarke, J., & Stoodley, I. (2012). An exploration of the Maturity Model concept as a vehicle for higher education institutions to assess their capability to address student engagement. A work in progress. Submitted for publication. Paulk, M. (1999). Using the Software CMM with good judgment, ASQ Software Quality Professional, 1(3), 19-29. Wilson, K. (2009, June–July). The impact of institutional, programmatic and personal interventions on an effective and sustainable first-year student experience. Keynote address presented at the 12th Pacific Rim First Year in Higher Education Conference, “Preparing for Tomorrow Today: The First Year as Foundation,” Townsville, Australia. Retrieved from http://www.fyhe.com.au/past_papers/papers09/ppts/Keithia_Wilson_paper.pdf

Correction of step artefact associated with MRI scanning of long bones

3D models of long bones are being utilised for a number of fields including orthopaedic implant design. Accurate reconstruction of 3D models is of utmost importance to design accurate implants to allow achieving a good alignment between two bone fragments. Thus for this purpose, CT scanners are employed to acquire accurate bone data exposing an individual to a high amount of ionising radiation. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been shown to be a potential alternative to computed tomography (CT) for scanning of volunteers for 3D reconstruction of long bones, essentially avoiding the high radiation dose from CT. In MRI imaging of long bones, the artefacts due to random movements of the skeletal system create challenges for researchers as they generate inaccuracies in the 3D models generated by using data sets containing such artefacts. One of the defects that have been observed during an initial study is the lateral shift artefact occurring in the reconstructed 3D models. This artefact is believed to result from volunteers moving the leg during two successive scanning stages (the lower limb has to be scanned in at least five stages due to the limited scanning length of the scanner). As this artefact creates inaccuracies in the implants designed using these models, it needs to be corrected before the application of 3D models to implant design. Therefore, this study aimed to correct the lateral shift artefact using 3D modelling techniques. The femora of five ovine hind limbs were scanned with a 3T MRI scanner using a 3D vibe based protocol. The scanning was conducted in two halves, while maintaining a good overlap between them. A lateral shift was generated by moving the limb several millimetres between two scanning stages. The 3D models were reconstructed using a multi threshold segmentation method. The correction of the artefact was achieved by aligning the two halves using the robust iterative closest point (ICP) algorithm, with the help of the overlapping region between the two. The models with the corrected artefact were compared with the reference model generated by CT scanning of the same sample. The results indicate that the correction of the artefact was achieved with an average deviation of 0.32 ± 0.02 mm between the corrected model and the reference model. In comparison, the model obtained from a single MRI scan generated an average error of 0.25 ± 0.02 mm when compared with the reference model. An average deviation of 0.34 ± 0.04 mm was seen when the models generated after the table was moved were compared to the reference models; thus, the movement of the table is also a contributing factor to the motion artefacts.

Grouping people in social networks using a weighted multi-constraints clustering method

Grouping users in social networks is an important process that improves matching and recommendation activities in social networks. The data mining methods of clustering can be used in grouping the users in social networks. However, the existing general purpose clustering algorithms perform poorly on the social network data due to the special nature of users' data in social networks. One main reason is the constraints that need to be considered in grouping users in social networks. Another reason is the need of capturing large amount of information about users which imposes computational complexity to an algorithm. In this paper, we propose a scalable and effective constraint-based clustering algorithm based on a global similarity measure that takes into consideration the users' constraints and their importance in social networks. Each constraint's importance is calculated based on the occurrence of this constraint in the dataset. Performance of the algorithm is demonstrated on a dataset obtained from an online dating website using internal and external evaluation measures. Results show that the proposed algorithm is able to increases the accuracy of matching users in social networks by 10% in comparison to other algorithms.

Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian Weighted Least Squares approach

Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.

Locally weighted learning model predictivek control for elastic joint robots

This paper proposes an efficient and online learning control system that uses the successful Model Predictive Control (MPC) method in a model based locally weighted learning framework. The new approach named Locally Weighted Learning Model Predictive Control (LWL-MPC) has been proposed as a solution to learn to control complex and nonlinear Elastic Joint Robots (EJR). Elastic Joint Robots are generally difficult to learn to control due to their elastic properties preventing standard model learning techniques from being used, such as learning computed torque control. This paper demonstrates the capability of LWL-MPC to perform online and incremental learning while controlling the joint positions of a real three Degree of Freedom (DoF) EJR. An experiment on a real EJR is presented and LWL-MPC is shown to successfully learn to control the system to follow two different figure of eight trajectories.

V1-inspired features induce a weighted margin in SVMs

Image representations derived from simplified models of the primary visual cortex (V1), such as HOG and SIFT, elicit good performance in a myriad of visual classification tasks including object recognition/detection, pedestrian detection and facial expression classification. A central question in the vision, learning and neuroscience communities regards why these architectures perform so well. In this paper, we offer a unique perspective to this question by subsuming the role of V1-inspired features directly within a linear support vector machine (SVM). We demonstrate that a specific class of such features in conjunction with a linear SVM can be reinterpreted as inducing a weighted margin on the Kronecker basis expansion of an image. This new viewpoint on the role of V1-inspired features allows us to answer fundamental questions on the uniqueness and redundancies of these features, and offer substantial improvements in terms of computational and storage efficiency.

A hybrid smoothed finite element method (H-SFEM) to solid mechanics problems

In this paper, a hybrid smoothed finite element method (H-SFEM) is developed for solid mechanics problems by combining techniques of finite element method (FEM) and Node-based smoothed finite element method (NS-FEM) using a triangular mesh. A parameter is equipped into H-SFEM, and the strain field is further assumed to be the weighted average between compatible stains from FEM and smoothed strains from NS-FEM. We prove theoretically that the strain energy obtained from the H-SFEM solution lies in between those from the compatible FEM solution and the NS-FEM solution, which guarantees the convergence of H-SFEM. Intensive numerical studies are conducted to verify these theoretical results and show that (1) the upper and lower bound solutions can always be obtained by adjusting ; (2) there exists a preferable at which the H-SFEM can produce the ultrasonic accurate solution.

Effects of average speed enforcement on speed compliance and crashes : a review of the literature

Average speed enforcement is a relatively new approach gaining popularity throughout Europe and Australia. This paper reviews the evidence regarding the impact of this approach on vehicle speeds, crashes rates and a number of additional road safety and public health outcomes. The economic and practical viability of the approach as a road safety countermeasure is also explored. A literature review, with an international scope, of both published and grey literature was conducted. There is a growing body of evidence to suggest a number of road safety benefits associated with average speed enforcement, including high rates of compliance with speed limits, reductions in average and 85th percentile speeds and reduced speed variability between vehicles. Moreover, the approach has been demonstrated to be particularly effective in reducing excessive speeding behaviour. Reductions in crash rates have also been reported in association with average speed enforcement, particularly in relation to fatal and serious injury crashes. In addition, the approach has been shown to improve traffic flow, reduce vehicle emissions and has also been associated with high levels of public acceptance. Average speed enforcement offers a greater network-wide approach to managing speeds that reduces the impact of time and distance halo effects associated with other automated speed enforcement approaches. Although comparatively expensive it represents a highly reliable approach to speed enforcement that produces considerable returns on investment through reduced social and economic costs associated with crashes.

Average travel time estimations for urban routes that consider exit turning movements

This paper presents a methodology for real-time estimation of exit movement-specific average travel time on urban routes by integrating real-time cumulative plots, probe vehicles, and historic cumulative plots. Two approaches, component based and extreme based, are discussed for route travel time estimation. The methodology is tested with simulation and is validated with real data from Lucerne, Switzerland, that demonstrate its potential for accurate estimation. Both approaches provide similar results. The component-based approach is more reliable, with a greater chance of obtaining a probe vehicle in each interval, although additional data from each component is required. The extreme-based approach is simple and requires only data from upstream and downstream of the route, but the chances of obtaining a probe that traverses the entire route might be low. The performance of the methodology is also compared with a probe-only method. The proposed methodology requires only a few probes for accurate estimation; the probe-only method requires significantly more probes.

Exponential integrators and a dual-scale model for wood drying

For the timber industry, the ability to simulate the drying of wood is invaluable for manufacturing high quality wood products. Mathematically, however, modelling the drying of a wet porous material, such as wood, is a diffcult task due to its heterogeneous and anisotropic nature, and the complex geometry of the underlying pore structure. The well{ developed macroscopic modelling approach involves writing down classical conservation equations at a length scale where physical quantities (e.g., porosity) can be interpreted as averaged values over a small volume (typically containing hundreds or thousands of pores). This averaging procedure produces balance equations that resemble those of a continuum with the exception that effective coeffcients appear in their deffnitions. Exponential integrators are numerical schemes for initial value problems involving a system of ordinary differential equations. These methods differ from popular Newton{Krylov implicit methods (i.e., those based on the backward differentiation formulae (BDF)) in that they do not require the solution of a system of nonlinear equations at each time step but rather they require computation of matrix{vector products involving the exponential of the Jacobian matrix. Although originally appearing in the 1960s, exponential integrators have recently experienced a resurgence in interest due to a greater undertaking of research in Krylov subspace methods for matrix function approximation. One of the simplest examples of an exponential integrator is the exponential Euler method (EEM), which requires, at each time step, approximation of φ(A)b, where φ(z) = (ez - 1)/z, A E Rnxn and b E Rn. For drying in porous media, the most comprehensive macroscopic formulation is TransPore [Perre and Turner, Chem. Eng. J., 86: 117-131, 2002], which features three coupled, nonlinear partial differential equations. The focus of the first part of this thesis is the use of the exponential Euler method (EEM) for performing the time integration of the macroscopic set of equations featured in TransPore. In particular, a new variable{ stepsize algorithm for EEM is presented within a Krylov subspace framework, which allows control of the error during the integration process. The performance of the new algorithm highlights the great potential of exponential integrators not only for drying applications but across all disciplines of transport phenomena. For example, when applied to well{ known benchmark problems involving single{phase liquid ow in heterogeneous soils, the proposed algorithm requires half the number of function evaluations than that required for an equivalent (sophisticated) Newton{Krylov BDF implementation. Furthermore for all drying configurations tested, the new algorithm always produces, in less computational time, a solution of higher accuracy than the existing backward Euler module featured in TransPore. Some new results relating to Krylov subspace approximation of '(A)b are also developed in this thesis. Most notably, an alternative derivation of the approximation error estimate of Hochbruck, Lubich and Selhofer [SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 19(5): 1552{1574, 1998] is provided, which reveals why it performs well in the error control procedure. Two of the main drawbacks of the macroscopic approach outlined above include the effective coefficients must be supplied to the model, and it fails for some drying configurations, where typical dual{scale mechanisms occur. In the second part of this thesis, a new dual{scale approach for simulating wood drying is proposed that couples the porous medium (macroscale) with the underlying pore structure (microscale). The proposed model is applied to the convective drying of softwood at low temperatures and is valid in the so{called hygroscopic range, where hygroscopically held liquid water is present in the solid phase and water exits only as vapour in the pores. Coupling between scales is achieved by imposing the macroscopic gradient on the microscopic field using suitably defined periodic boundary conditions, which allows the macroscopic ux to be defined as an average of the microscopic ux over the unit cell. This formulation provides a first step for moving from the macroscopic formulation featured in TransPore to a comprehensive dual{scale formulation capable of addressing any drying configuration. Simulation results reported for a sample of spruce highlight the potential and flexibility of the new dual{scale approach. In particular, for a given unit cell configuration it is not necessary to supply the effective coefficients prior to each simulation.

Moving Landscapes : National Parks and the Vietnamese Experience

This study examines the range of Vietnamese understandings of the natural and cultural environment both in Australia and in Vietnam. It documents the differing experiences of Vietnamese-Australians to national parks, focusing on the factors influencing the involvement of Vietnamese people in parks and reserves. These include social, age, economic, gender and cultural determinants. The study also ascertains whether particular parks or reserves have social significance to Vietnamese people in Australia provides material that could impact on NPWS policy in relation to education strategies for different communities indicates ways of increasing community awareness about the NPWS in the Vietnamese community. The study is part of an NPWS research program on multiculturalism and conservation reserves.