Total heat transfer measurements on a flight investigation of reentry environment model

Stagnation-point total heat transfer was measured on a 1:27.7 model of the Flight Investigation of Reentry Environment II flight vehicle. Experiments were performed in the X1 expansion tube at an equivalent flight velocity and static enthalpy of 11 km/s and 12.7 MJ/kg, respectively. Conditions were chosen to replicate the flight condition at a total flight time of 1639.5 s, where radiation contributed an estimated 17-36% of the total heat transfer. This contribution is theorized to reduce to <2% in the scaled experiments, and the heating environment on the test model was expected to be dominated by convection. A correlation between reported flight heating rates and expected experimental heating, referred to as the reduced flight value, was developed to predict the level of heating expected on the test model. At the given flow conditions, the reduced flight value was calculated to be 150 MW/m2. Average stagnation-point total heat transfer was measured to be 140 ± 7% W/m2, showing good agreement with the predicted value. Experimentally measured heat transfer was found to have good agreement of between 5 and 15% with a number of convective heating correlations, confirming that convection dominates the tunnel heating environment, and that useful experimental measurements could be made in weakly coupled radiating flow

Is bus overrepresented in Bluetooth MAC Scanner data? Is MAC-ID really unique?

One of the concerns about the use of Bluetooth MAC Scanner (BMS) data, especially from urban arterial, is the bias in the travel time estimates from multiple Bluetooth devices being transported by a vehicle. For instance, if a bus is transporting 20 passengers with Bluetooth equipped mobile phones, then the discovery of these mobile phones by BMS will be considered as 20 different vehicles, and the average travel time along the corridor estimated from the BMS data will be biased with the travel time from the bus. This paper integrates Bus Vehicle Identification system with BMS network to empirically evaluate such bias, if any. The paper also reports an interesting finding on the uniqueness of MAC IDs.

A simple model for the establishment of tick-borne pathogens of Ixodes scapularis : a global sensitivity analysis of R0

The basic reproduction number of a pathogen, R 0, determines whether a pathogen will spread (R0>1R 0>1), when introduced into a fully susceptible population or fade out (R0<1R 0<1), because infected hosts do not, on average, replace themselves. In this paper we develop a simple mechanistic model for the basic reproduction number for a group of tick-borne pathogens that wholly, or almost wholly, depend on horizontal transmission to and from vertebrate hosts. This group includes the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, and the causative agent of human babesiosis, Babesia microti, for which transmission between co-feeding ticks and vertical transmission from adult female ticks are both negligible. The model has only 19 parameters, all of which have a clear biological interpretation and can be estimated from laboratory or field data. The model takes into account the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host as a function of the days since infection, in part because of the potential for this dynamic to interact with tick phenology, which is also included in the model. This sets the model apart from previous, similar models for R0 for tick-borne pathogens. We then define parameter ranges for the 19 parameters using estimates from the literature, as well as laboratory and field data, and perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model. This enables us to rank the importance of the parameters in terms of their contribution to the observed variation in R0. We conclude that the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host to Ixodes scapularis ticks, the survival rate of Ixodes scapularis from fed larva to feeding nymph, and the fraction of nymphs finding a competent host, are the most influential factors for R0. This contrasts with other vector borne pathogens where it is usually the abundance of the vector or host, or the vector-to-host ratio, that determine conditions for emergence. These results are a step towards a better understanding of the geographical expansion of currently emerging horizontally transmitted tick-borne pathogens such as Babesia microti, as well as providing a firmer scientific basis for targeted use of acaricide or the application of wildlife vaccines that are currently in development.

Investigation on mechanical behaviour of AM60 magnesium alloys

Purpose: In this work, tension, impact, bend and fatigue tests were conducted in an AM60 magnesium alloy. The effects of environmental temperature and loading rates on impact and tension behavior of the alloy were also investigated. Design/methodology/approach: The tests were conducted using an Instron universal testing machine. The loading speed was changed from 1 mm/min to 300 mm/min to gain a better understanding of the effect of strain rate. To understand the failure behavior of this alloy at different environmental temperatures, Charpy impact test was conducted in a range of temperatures (-40~35°C). Plane strain fracture toughness (KIC) was evaluated using compact tension (CT) specimen. To gain a better understanding of the failure mechanisms, all fracture surfaces were observed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). In addition, fatigue behavior of this alloy was estimated using tension test under tension-tension condition at 30 Hz. The stress amplitude was selected in the range of 20~50 MPa to obtain the S-N curve. Findings: The tensile test indicated that the mechanical properties were not sensitive to the strain rates applied (3.3x10-4~0.1) and the plastic deformation was dominated by twining mediated slip. The impact energy is not sensitive to the environmental temperature. The plane strain fracture toughness and fatigue limit were evaluated and the average values were 7.6 MPa.m1/2 and 25 MPa, respectively. Practical implications: Tested materials AM60 Mg alloy can be applied among others in automotive industry aerospace, communication and computer industry. Originality/value: Many investigations have been conducted to develop new Mg alloys with improved stiffness and ductility. On the other hand, relatively less attention has been paid to the failure mechanisms of Mg alloys, such as brittle fracture and fatigue, subjected to different environmental or loading conditions. In this work, tension, impact, bend and fatigue tests were conducted in an AM60 magnesium alloy.

Lumbar epidural steroids are not cost effective in sciatica

Background Lumbar Epidural Steroids Injections (ESI’s) have previously been shown to provide some degree of pain relief in sciatica. Number Needed To Treat (NNT) to achieve 50% pain relief has been estimated at 7 from the results of randomised controlled trials. Pain relief is temporary. They remain one of the most commonly provided procedures in the UK. It is unknown whether this pain relief represents good value for money. Methods 228 patients were randomised into a multi-centre Double Blind Randomised Controlled Trial. Subjects received up to 3 ESI’s or intra-spinous saline depending on response and fall off with the first injection. All other treatments were permitted. All received a review of analgesia, education and physical therapy. Quality of life was assessed using the SF36 at 6 points and compared using independent sample t-tests. Follow up was up to 1 yr. Missing data was imputed using last observation carried forward (LOCF). QALY’s (Quality of Life Years) were derived from preference based heath values (summary health utility score). SF-6D health state classification was derived from SF-36 raw score data. Standard gambles (SG) were calculated using Model 10. SG scores were calculated on trial results. LOCF was not used for this. Instead average SG were derived for a subset of patients with observations for all visits up to week 12. Incremental QALY’s were derived as the difference in the area between the SG curve for the active group and placebo group. Results SF36 domains showed a significant improvement in pain at week 3 but this was not sustained (mean 54 Active vs 61 Placebo P<0.05). Other domains did not show any significant gains compared with placebo. For derivation of SG the number in the sample in each period differed. In week 12, average SG scores for active and placebo converged. In other words, the health gain for the active group as measured by SG was achieved by the placebo group by week 12. The incremental QALY gained for a patient under the trial protocol compared with the standard care package was 0.0059350. This is equivalent to an additional 2.2 days of full health. The cost per QALY gained to the provider from a patient management strategy administering one epidural as suggested by results was £25 745.68. This result was derived assuming that the gain in QALY data calculated for patients under the trial protocol would approximate that under a patient management strategy based on the trial results (one ESI). This is above the threshold suggested by some as a cost effective treatment. Conclusions The transient benefit in pain relief afforded by ESI’s does not appear to be cost-effective. Further work is needed to develop more cost-effective conservative treatments for sciatica.

UCPR r548 - requirement for report or proof of evidence intended to be relied on at trial

In Oates v Cootes Tanker Service Pty Ltd [2005] QSC 213, Fryberg J considered some interesting questions of construction in relation to the rule requiring the plaintiff to provide a statement of loss and damage in personal injuries proceedings (UCPR r 548) and the rule in relation to the giving of expert evidence (UCPR r427)

Bioeconomic modelling and risk assessment of tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia

A bioeconomic model was developed to evaluate the potential performance of brown tiger prawn stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia. This paper presents the framework for the bioeconomic model and risk assessment for all components of a stock enhancement operation, i.e. hatchery, grow-out, releasing, population dynamics, fishery, and monitoring, for a commercial scale enhancement of about 100 metric tonnes, a 25% increase in average annual catch in Exmouth Gulf. The model incorporates uncertainty in estimates of parameters by using a distribution for the parameter over a certain range, based on experiments, published data, or similar studies. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to quantify the effects of these uncertainties on the model-output and on the economic potential of a particular production target. The model incorporates density-dependent effects in the nursery grounds of brown tiger prawns. The results predict that a release of 21 million 1 g prawns would produce an estimated enhanced prawn catch of about 100 t. This scale of enhancement has a 66.5% chance of making a profit. The largest contributor to the overall uncertainty of the enhanced prawn catch was the post-release mortality, followed by the density-dependent mortality caused by released prawns. These two mortality rates are most difficult to estimate in practice and are much under-researched in stock enhancement.

Impact of temperature on childhood pneumonia estimated from satellite remote sensing

The effect of temperature on childhood pneumonia in subtropical regions is largely unknown so far. This study examined the impact of temperature on childhood pneumonia in Brisbane, Australia. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non linear model was used to quantify the main effect of temperature on emergency department visits (EDVs) for childhood pneumonia in Brisbane from 2001 to 2010. The model residuals were checked to identify added effects due to heat waves or cold spells. Both high and low temperatures were associated with an increase in EDVs for childhood pneumonia. Children aged 2–5 years, and female children were particularly vulnerable to the impacts of heat and cold, and Indigenous children were sensitive to heat. Heat waves and cold spells had significant added effects on childhood pneumonia, and the magnitude of these effects increased with intensity and duration. There were changes over time in both the main and added effects of temperature on childhood pneumonia. Children, especially those female and Indigenous, should be particularly protected from extreme temperatures. Future development of early warning systems should take the change over time in the impact of temperature on children’s health into account.

MAS NMR measurements of intact articular bovine cartilage

Articular cartilage (AC), an avascular connective tissue lining articulating surfaces of the long bones, comprises extracellular biopolymers. In functionally compromised states such as osteoarthritis, thinned or lost AC causes reduced mobility and increased health-care costs. Understanding of the characteristics responsible for the load bearing efficiency of AC and the factors leading to its degradation are incomplete. DTI shows the structural alignment of collagen in AC [1] and T2 relaxation measurements suggest that the average director of reorientational motion of water molecules depends on the degree of alignment of collagen in AC [2]. Information on the nature of the chemical interactions involved in functional AC is lacking. The need for AC structural integrity makes solid state NMR an ideal tool to study this tissue. We examined the contribution of water in different functional ‘compartments’ using 1H-MAS, 13C-MAS and 13C-CPMAS NMR of bovine patellar cartilage incubated in D2O. 1H-MAS spectra signal intensity was reduced due to H/D exchange without a measureable redistribution of relative signal intensity. Chemical shift anisotropy was estimated by lineshape analysis of multiple peaks in the 1H-MAS spinning sidebands. These asymmetrical sidebands suggested the presence of multiple water species in AC. Therefore, water was added in small aliquots to D2O saturated AC and the influence of H2O and D2O on organic components was studied with 13C-MAS-NMR and 13C-CPMAS-NMR. Signal intensity in 13C-MAS spectra showed no change in relative signal intensity throughout the spectrum. In 13C-CPMAS spectra, displacement of water by D2O resulted in a loss of signal in the aliphatic region due to a reduction in proton availability for cross-polarization. These results complement dehydration studies of cartilage using osmotic manipulation [3] and demonstrate components of cartilage that are in contact with mobile water.

Solid-state MAS NMR measurements of intact articular bovine cartilage

Articular cartilage (AC), an avascular connective tissue lining articulating surfaces of the long bones, comprises extracellular biopolymers. In functionally compromised states such as osteoarthritis, thinned or lost AC causes reduced mobility and increased health-care costs. Understanding of the characteristics responsible for the load bearing efficiency of AC and the factors leading to its degradation are incomplete. DTI shows the structural alignment of collagen in AC [1] and T2 relaxation measurements suggest that the average director of reorientational motion of water molecules depends on the degree of alignment of collagen in AC [2]. Information on the nature of the chemical interactions involved in functional AC is lacking. The need for AC structural integrity makes solid state NMR an ideal tool to study this tissue. We examined the contribution of water in different functional ‘compartments’ using 1H-MAS, 13C-MAS and 13C-CPMAS NMR of bovine patellar cartilage incubated in D2O. 1H-MAS spectra signal intensity was reduced due to H/D exchange without a measureable redistribution of relative signal intensity. Chemical shift anisotropy was estimated by lineshape analysis of multiple peaks in the 1H-MAS spinning sidebands. These asymmetrical sidebands suggested the presence of multiple water species in AC. Therefore, water was added in small aliquots to D2O saturated AC and the influence of H2O and D2O on organic components was studied with 13C-MAS-NMR and 13C-CPMAS-NMR. Signal intensity in 13C-MAS spectra showed no change in relative signal intensity throughout the spectrum. In 13C-CPMAS spectra, displacement of water by D2O resulted in a loss of signal in the aliphatic region due to a reduction in proton availability for cross-polarization. These results complement dehydration studies of cartilage using osmotic manipulation [3] and demonstrate components of cartilage that are in contact with mobile water.

A review of the potential role of greenhouse gas abatement in native vegetation management in Queensland's rangelands

Concern about the risk of harmful human-induced climate change has resulted in international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. We review the international and national context for consideration of greenhouse abatement in native vegetation management and discuss potential options in Queensland. Queensland has large areas of productive or potentially productive land with native woody vegetation cover with approximately 76 million ha with woody cover remaining in 1991. High rates of tree clearing, predominantly to increase pasture productivity, continued throughout the 1990s with an average 345,000 ha/a estimated to have been cleared, including non-remnant (woody regrowth) as well as remnant vegetation. Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions associated with land clearing currently have a high uncertainty but clearing was reported to contribute a significant proportion of Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 (21%) to 1999 (13%). In Queensland, greenhouse emissions from land clearing were estimated to have been 54.5 Mt CO(2)-e in 1999. Management of native vegetation for timber harvesting and the proliferation of woody vegetation (vegetation thickening) in the grazed woodlands also represent large carbon fluxes. Forestry (plantations and native forests) in Queensland was reported to be a 4.4 Mt CO(2)-e sink in 1999 but there are a lack of comprehensive data on timber harvesting in private hardwood forests. Vegetation thickening is reported for large areas of the c. 60 million ha grazed woodlands in Queensland. The magnitude of the carbon sink in 27 million ha grazed eucalypt woodlands has been estimated to be 66 Mt CO(2)-e/a but this sink is not currently included in Australia's inventory of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. Improved understanding of the function and dynamics of natural and managed ecosystems is required to support management of native vegetation to preserve and enhance carbon stocks for greenhouse benefits while meeting objectives of sustainable and productive management and biodiversity protection.

Priority threat management of invasive plant species in the Lake Eyre Basin

This project is led by scientists in conservation decision appraisal and brings together a group of experts working across the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). The LEB covers a sixth of Australia, with an array of globally significant natural values that are threatened by invasive plants, among other things. Managers at various levels are investing in attempts to control, contain and eradicate these invasive plant species, under severe time and resources limitations. To date there has been no basin-wide assessment of which weed management strategies and locations provide the best investments for maximising outcomes for biodiversity per unit cost. Further, there has been no assessment of the extent of ecosystem intactness that may be lost without effective invasive plant species management strategies. Given that there are insufficient resources to manage all invasive plant species everywhere, this information has the potential to improve current investment decisions. Here, we provide a prioritisation of invasive plant management strategies in the LEB. Prioritisation was based on cost-effectiveness for biodiversity benefits. We identify the key invasive plant species to target to protect ecosystem intactness across the bioregions of the LEB, the level of investment required and the likely reduction in invasive species dominance gained per dollar spent on each strategy. Our focus is on strategies that are technically and socially feasible and reduce the likelihood that high impact invasive plant species will dominate native ecosystems, and therefore change their form and function. The outputs of this work are designed to help guide decision-making and further planning and investment in weed management for the Basin. Experts in weed management, policy-making, community engagement, biodiversity and natural values of the Basin, attended a workshop and agreed upon 12 strategies to manage invasive plants. The strategies focused primarily on 10 weeds which were considered to have a high potential for broad, significant impacts on natural ecosystems in the next 50 years and for which feasible management strategies could be defined. Each strategy consisted of one or more supporting actions, many of which were spatially linked to IBRA (Interim Biogeographical Regionalisation of Australia) bioregions. The first strategy was an over-arching recommendation for improved mapping, information sharing, education and extension efforts in order to facilitate the more specific weed management strategies. The 10 more specific weed management strategies targeted the control and/or eradication of the following high-impact exotic plants: mesquite, parkinsonia, rubber vine, bellyache bush, cacti, mother of millions, chinee apple, athel pine and prickly acacia, as well as a separate strategy for eradicating all invasive plants from one key threatened ecological community, the GAB (Great Artesian Basin dependant) mound springs. Experts estimated the expected biodiversity benefit of each strategy as the reduction in area that an invasive plant species is likely to dominate in over a 50-year period, where dominance was defined as more than 30% coverage at a site. Costs were estimated in present day terms over 50 years largely during follow up discussions post workshop. Cost-effectiveness was then calculated for each strategy in each bioregion by dividing the average expected benefit by the average annual costs. Overall, the total cost of managing 12 invasive plant strategies over the next 50 years was estimated at $1.7 billion. It was estimated that implementation of these strategies would result in a reduction of invasive plant dominance by 17 million ha (a potential 32% reduction), roughly 14% of the LEB. If only targeting Weeds of National Significance (WONS), the total cost was estimated to be $113 million over the next 50 years. Over the next 50 years, $2.3 million was estimated to eradicate all invasive plant species from the Great Artesian Basin Mound Springs threatened ecological community. Prevention and awareness programs were another key strategy targeted across the Basin and estimated at $17.5 million in total over 50 years. The cost of controlling, eradicating and containing buffel grass were the most expensive, over $1.5 billion over 50 years; this strategy was estimated to result in a reduction in buffel grass dominance of a million ha in areas where this species is identified as an environmental problem. Buffel grass has been deliberately planted across the Basin for pasture production and is by far the most widely distributed exotic species. Its management is contentious, having economic value to many graziers while posing serious threats to biodiversity and sites of high cultural and conservation interest. The strategy for containing and locally eradicating buffel grass was a challenge to cost based on expert knowledge, possibly because of the dual nature of this species as a valued pastoral grass and environmental weed. Based on our conversations with experts, it appears that control and eradication programs for this species, in conservation areas, are growing rapidly and that information on the most cost-effective strategies for this species will continue to develop over time. The top five most cost-effective strategies for the entire LEB were for the management of: 1) parkinsonia, 2) chinee apple, 3) mesquite, 4) rubber vine and 5) bellyache bush. Chinee apple and mother of millions are not WONS and have comparatively small populations within the semi-arid bioregions of Queensland. Experts felt that there was an opportunity to eradicate these species before they had the chance to develop into high-impact species within the LEB. Prickly acacia was estimated to have one of the highest benefits, but the costs of this strategy were high, therefore it was ranked 7th overall. The buffel grass strategy was ranked the lowest (10th) in terms of cost effectiveness. The top five most cost-effective strategies within and across the bioregions were the management of: 1) parkinsonia in the Channel Country, 2) parkinsonia in the Desert Uplands, 3) mesquite in the Mitchell Grass Downs, 4) parkinsonia in the Mitchell Grass Downs, and 5) mother of millions in the Desert Uplands. Although actions for several invasive plant species like parkinsonia and prickly acacia were concentrated in the Queensland part of the LEB, the actions involved investing in containment zones to prevent the spread of these species into other states. In the NT and SA bioregions of the LEB, the management of athel pine, parkinsonia and cacti were the main strategies. While outside the scientific research goals of study, this work highlighted a number of important incidental findings that led us to make the following recommendations for future research and implementation of weed management in the Basin: • Ongoing stakeholder engagement, extension and participation is required to ensure this prioritisation effort has a positive impact in affecting on-ground decision making and planning. • Short term funding for weed management was identified as a major reason for failure of current efforts, hence future funding needs to be secure and ongoing. • Improved mapping and information sharing is essential to implement effective weed management. • Due to uncertainties in the outcomes and impacts of management options, strategies should be implemented as part of an adaptive management program. The information provided in this report can be used to guide investment for controlling high-impact invasive plant species for the benefits of biodiversity conservation. We do not present a final prioritisation of invasive plant strategies for the LEB, and we have not addressed the cultural, socio-economic or spatial components necessary for an implementation plan. Cost-effectiveness depends on the objectives used; in our case we used the intactness of ecosystems as a surrogate for expected biodiversity benefits, measured by the extent that each invasive plant species is likely to dominate in a bioregion. When other relevant factors for implementation are considered the priorities may change and some actions may not be appropriate in some locations. We present the costs, ecological benefits and cost-effectiveness of preventing, containing, reducing and eradicating the dominance of high impact invasive plants through realistic management actions over the next 50 years. In doing so, we are able to estimate the size of the weed management problem in the LEB and provide expert-based estimates of the likely outcomes and benefits of implementing weed management strategies. The priorities resulting from this work provide a prospectus for guiding further investment in management and in improving information availability.

Deconstructing antiobesity compound action : requirement of serotonin 5-HT2B receptors for dexfenfluramine anorectic effects

The now-banned anorectic molecule, dexfenfluramine, promotes serotonin release through a serotonin transporter-dependent mechanism, and it has been widely prescribed for the treatment of obesity. Previous studies have identified that 5-HT(2B) receptors have important roles in dexfenfluramine side effects, that is, pulmonary hypertension, plasma serotonin level regulation, and valvulopathy. We thus investigated a putative contribution of 5-HT(2B) receptors in dexfenfluramine-dependent feeding behavior in mice. Interestingly, the hypophagic response to dexfenfluramine (3-10 mg/kg) observed in wild-type mice (1-4 h) was eliminated in mice lacking 5-HT(2B) receptors (5-HT(2B)(-/-)). These findings were further validated by the lack of hypophagic response to dexfenfluramine in wild-type mice treated with RS127445, a highly selective and potent antagonist (pKi=8.22 ± 0.24). Using microdialysis, we observed that in 5-HT(2B)(-/-) awake mice, the dexfenfluramine-induced hypothalamic peak of serotonin release (1 h) was strongly reduced (fourfold) compared with wild type. Moreover, using hypothalamic synaptosomes, we established the serotonergic neuron autonomous properties of this effect: a strong serotonin release was observed upon dexfenfluramine stimulation of synaptosome preparation from wild type but not from mice lacking active 5-HT(2B) receptors. These findings strongly suggest that activation of presynaptic 5-HT(2B) receptors is a limiting step in the serotonin transporter dependent-releasing effect of dexfenfluramine, whereas other serotonin receptors act downstream with respect to feeding behavior.

A case study in flood fatality : Beijing July 2012 flood

Background The aim of this study is to examine the flood fatality with a view to identifying risks which may inform public policy responses to future flood. On July 21st, 2012, Beijing suffered the heaviest rain since 1963. The average rainfall was 215 mm over a 24 hour period in the central city (301mm in Fangshan District). The rain resulted in a flood that caused severe health, social and financial impact. Results This flood caused 79 deaths. Of the 71 deaths for which a specific cause could be identified, 5 were rescue team members, 42 were killed by drowning (11 in the car), and the others by electricity shock, fallen house, falling items and lightning. The total financial cost was estimated to be US$ 1.7 billion. The causations of the deaths inform the risks associated with the flood. Discussion This flood had a catastrophic impact on Beijing, mainly due to the intensity of the rain (the rain was the heaviest in the modern Beijing history; possibly due to global warming and urban heat island effect), the vulnerability of the infrastructure (poor standards of drainage, disorganized water management systems and decreased permeability of the earth as a result of the city’s rapid development), and the capacity of the response system (mainly dependent on the awareness of the citizens, warning systems and the capacity of the emergency rescue). Implication Many risk management measures have been implemented as a result of this flood, including water level warning marks, flood safety education and warnings sent to mobile phones, a project to move about 74,500 farmers away from the flood-prone areas within 5 years. However, further measures targeted at the fundamental issues identified by this analysis are necessary, especially those targeting at health issues. These may include better planning, improved drainage systems and ecological development to increase permeability etc..