Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?

Most studies examining the temperature–mortality association in a city used temperatures from one site or the average from a network of sites. This may cause measurement error as temperature varies across a city due to effects such as urban heat islands. We examined whether spatiotemporal models using spatially resolved temperatures produced different associations between temperature and mortality compared with time series models that used non-spatial temperatures. We obtained daily mortality data in 163 areas across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. We used ordinary kriging to interpolate spatial temperature variation across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. We used a spatiotemporal model to examine the impact of spatially resolved temperatures on mortality. Also, we used a time series model to examine non-spatial temperatures using a single site and the average temperature from three sites. We used squared Pearson scaled residuals to compare model fit. We found that kriged temperatures were consistent with observed temperatures. Spatiotemporal models using kriged temperature data yielded slightly better model fit than time series models using a single site or the average of three sites' data. Despite this better fit, spatiotemporal and time series models produced similar associations between temperature and mortality. In conclusion, time series models using non-spatial temperatures were equally good at estimating the city-wide association between temperature and mortality as spatiotemporal models.

Diurnal rhythm and effects of feeding, exercise and recombinant equine growth hormone on serum insulin concentrations in the horse

Reasons for performing the study As growth hormone increases lean body mass, it could be a therapy for obese horses. However, growth hormone use induces hyperinsulinaemia in some species, so further investigation is warranted. Objectives To investigate the effects of feeding, exercise and growth hormone therapy on basal insulin concentrations in healthy horses. Study design In vivo experimental study. Methods Blood samples were obtained every 30 min from 12 geldings over 24 h, to establish basal serum insulin concentrations, before they underwent a 3-week exercise programme. Horses were allocated into 2 groups and exercised for another 4 weeks. Group A received daily i.m. injections of recombinant equine growth hormone; 5 mg/day for 5 days, then 12.5 mg/day for 16 days. Blood samples were taken daily before feeding. Insulin vs. time area under curve of Groups A and B were compared using a Student's unpaired t test. Results Horses demonstrated insulin peaks within 2 h of feeding of 577 ± 108.3 pmol/l at 09.30 h and 342.4 ± 75.7 pmol/l at 17.30 h, despite receiving the same meal. The nadir was between midnight and 07.30 h. Exercise had no effect on basal insulin concentrations prior to equine growth hormone administrations. The equine growth hormone injections increased serum insulin concentrations (P = 0.01) within Group A, from 44.4 ± 15.3 pmol/l initially to 320.9 ± 238.2 pmol/l by Day 12. Exogenous growth hormone caused variable hyperinsulinaemia, which was alleviated once equine growth hormone administration ceased. Conclusions Single serum samples taken prior to the morning meal provide basal insulin concentrations. Exercise did not change basal insulin concentrations. However, equine growth hormone injections increased basal insulin concentrations, which were not ameliorated by exercise. Potential relevance This therapy is not recommended to address obesity in insulin-resistant equids.

Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand : a time series study

Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

The effects of the indoor environment of residential care homes on dementia suffers in Hong Kong : a critical incident technique approach

Dementia is an irreversible and incurable syndrome that leads to progressive impairment of cognitive functions and behavioural and psychological symptoms such as agitation, depression and psychosis. Appropriate environmental conditions can help delay its onset and progression, and indoor environmental (IE) factors have a major impact. However, there is no firm understanding of the full range of relevant IE factors and their impact levels. This paper describes a preliminary study to investigate the effects of IE on Hong Kong residential care homes (RCH) dementia residents. This involved six purposively selected focus groups, each comprising the main stakeholders of the dementia residents’ caregivers, RCH staff and/or registered nurses, and architects. Using the Critical Incident Technique, the main context and experiences of behavioural problems of dementia residents caused by IE were explored and the key causal RCH IE quality factors identified, together with the associated responses and stress levels involved. The findings indicate that the acoustic environment, lighting and thermal environment are the most important influencing factors. Many of the remedies provided by the focus groups are quite simple to carry out and are summarised in the form of recommendations to current RCHs providers and users. The knowledge acquired in this initial study will help enrich the knowledge of IE design for dementiaspecific residential facilities. It also provides some preliminary insights for healthcare policymakers and practitioners in the building design/facilities management and dementia-care sectors into the IE factors contributing to a more comfortable, healthy and sustainable RCH living environment in Hong Kong.

Regulation of dormancy in barley by blue light and after-ripening : effects on abscisic acid and gibberellin metabolism

White light strongly promotes dormancy in freshly harvested cereal grains, whereas dark and after-ripening have the opposite effect. We have analyzed the interaction of light and after-ripening on abscisic acid (ABA) and gibberellin (GA) metabolism genes and dormancy in barley (Hordeum vulgare ‘Betzes’). Analysis of gene expression in imbibed barley grains shows that different ABA metabolism genes are targeted by white light and after-ripening. Of the genes examined, white light promotes the expression of an ABA biosynthetic gene, HvNCED1, in embryos. Consistent with this result, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays show that dormant grains imbibed under white light have higher embryo ABA content than grains imbibed in the dark. After-ripening has no effect on expression of ABA biosynthesis genes, but promotes expression of an ABA catabolism gene (HvABA8′OH1), a GA biosynthetic gene (HvGA3ox2), and a GA catabolic gene (HvGA2ox3) following imbibition. Blue light mimics the effects of white light on germination, ABA levels, and expression of GA and ABA metabolism genes. Red and far-red light have no effect on germination, ABA levels, or HvNCED1. RNA interference experiments in transgenic barley plants support a role of HvABA8′OH1 in dormancy release. Reduced HvABA8′OH1 expression in transgenic HvABA8′OH1 RNAi grains results in higher levels of ABA and increased dormancy compared to nontransgenic grains.

Assessing exposures to emerging environmental contaminants in children

The period of developmental vulnerability to toxicants begins at conception and extends through gestation, parturition, infanthood and childhood to adolescence. The concern is that children: (1) may experience quantitatively and qualitatively different exposures, and (2) may have different sensitivity to chemical pollutants. Traditional toxicological studies are inappropriate for assessing the results of chronic exposure at very low levels during critical periods of development. This paper will discuss (1) the health effects associated with exposure to selected emerging organic pollutants, including brominated flame retardants, perfluorinated compounds, organophosphate pesticides and bisphenol A; (2) difficulties in monitoring these substances in children, and (3) suggest techniques and strategies for overcoming these difficulties. Such biomonitoring data can be used to identify where policies should be directed in order to reduce exposure, and to document policies that have successfully reduced exposure.

Innovation through action research in environmental education : from project to praxis

This thesis is a work-in-progress that articulates my research journey based on the development of a curriculum innovation in environmental education. This journey had two distinct, but intertwined phases: action research based fieldwork, conducted collaboratively, to create a whole school approach to environmental education curriculum planning; and a phase of analysis and reflection based on the emerging findings, as I sought to create personal "living educational theory" about change and innovation. A key stimulus for the study was the perceived theory-practice gap in environmental education, which is often presented in the literature as a criticism of teachers for failing to achieve the values and action objectives of critical environmental education. Hence, many programs and projects are considered to be superficial and inconsequential in terms of their ability to seriously address environmental issues. The intention of this study was to work with teachers in a project that would be an exemplar of critical environmental education. This would be in the form of a whole school "learnscaping" curriculum in a primary school whereby the schoolgrounds would be utilised for interdisciplinary critical environment education. Parallel with the three cycles of action research in this project, my research objectives were to identify and comment upon the factors that influence the generation of successful educational innovation. It was anticipated that the project would be a collaboration involving me, as researcher-facilitator, and many of the teachers in the school as active participants. As the project proceeded through its action cycles, however, it became obvious that the goal of developing a critical environmental education curriculum, and the use of highly participatory processes, were unrealistic. Institutional and organisational rigidities in education generally, teachers' day-to-day work demands, and the constant juggle of work, family and other responsibilities for all participants acted as significant constraints. Consequently, it became apparent that the learnscaping curriculum would not be the hoped-for exemplar. Progress was slow and, at times, the project was in danger of stalling permanently. While the curriculum had some elements of critical environmental education, these were minor and not well spread throughout the school. Overall, the outcome seemed best described as a "small win"; perhaps just another example of the theory-practice gap that I had hoped this project would bridge. Towards the project's end, however, my continuing reflection led to an exploration of chaos/complexity theory which gave new meaning to the concept of a "small win". According to this theory, change is not the product of linear processes applied methodically in purposeful and diligent ways, but emerges from serendipitous events that cannot be planned for, or forecast in advance. When this perspective of change is applied to human organisations - in this study, a busy school - the context for change is recognised not as a stable, predictable environment, but as a highly complex system where change happens all the time, cannot be controlled, and no one can be really sure where the impacts might lead. This so-called "butterfly effect" is a central idea of this theory where small changes or modifications are created - the effects of which are difficult to know, let alone determine - and which can have large-scale impacts. Allied with this effect is the belief that long term developments in an organisation that takes complexity into account, emerge by spontaneous self-organising evolution, requiring political interaction and learning in groups, rather than systematic progress towards predetermined goals or "visions". Hence, because change itself and the contexts of change are recognised as complex, chaos/complexity theory suggests that change is more likely to be slow and evolutionary - cultural change - rather than fast and revolutionary where the old is quickly ushered out by radical reforms and replaced by new structures and processes. Slow, small-scale changes are "normal", from a complexity viewpoint, while rapid, wholesale change is both unlikely and unrealistic. Therefore, the frustratingly slow, small-scale, imperfect educational changes that teachers create - including environmental education initiatives - should be seen for what they really are. They should be recognised as successful changes, the impacts of which cannot be known, but which have the potential to magnify into large-scale changes into the future. Rather than being regarded as failures for not meeting critical education criteria, "small wins" should be cause for celebration and support. The intertwined phases of collaborative action research and individual researcher reflection are mirrored in the thesis structure. The first three chapters, respectively, provide the thesis overview, the literature underpinning the study's central concern, and the research methodology. Chapters 4, 5, and 6 report on each of the three action research cycles of the study, namely Laying the Groundwork, Down to Work!, and The Never-ending Story. Each of these chapters presents a narrative of events, a literature review specific to developments in the cycle, and analysis and critique of the events, processes and outcomes of each cycle. Chapter 7 provides a synthesis of the whole of the study, outlining my interim propositions about facilitating curriculum change in schools through action research, and the implications of these for environmental education.

Effects of cold weather on durability of CFRP strengthened circular hollow steel members

Tubular members have become progressively more popular due to excellent structural properties, aesthetic appearance, corrosion and fire protection capability. However, a large number of such structures are found structurally deficient due to reduction of strength when they expose to severe environmental conditions such as marine environment, cold and hot weather. Hence strengthening and retrofitting of structural members are in high demands. In recent times Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymers (CFRP) composites appears to be an excellent solution to enhance the load carrying capacity and serviceability of steel structures because of its superior physical and mechanical properties. However, the durability of such strengthening system under cold environmental condition has not yet been well documented to guide the engineers. This paper presents the findings of a study conducted to enhance the bond durability of CFRP strengthened steel tubular members by treating steel surface using epoxy based adhesion promoter under cold weather subjected to bending. The experimental program consisted of six number of CFRP strengthened specimens and one bare specimen. The sand blasted surface of the three specimens to be strengthened was pre-treated with MBrace primer and other three were remained untreated and then cured under ambient temperature and cold weather (3oC) for three and six months period of time. The beams were then loaded to failure under four point bending. The structural response of each specimen was predicted in terms of failure mode, failure load and mid-span deflection. The research findings show that the cold weather immersion had an adverse effect on durability of CFRP strengthened structures. Moreover, the epoxy based adhesion promoter was found to enhance the bond durability in elastic range.

IODP Expedition 339 in the Gulf of Cadiz and off West Iberia : decoding the environmental significance of the Mediterranean outflow water and its global influence

IODP Expedition 339 drilled five sites in the Gulf of Cadiz and two off the west Iberian margin (November 2011 to January 2012), and recovered 5.5 km of sediment cores with an average recovery of 86.4%. The Gulf of Cadiz was targeted for drilling as a key location for the investigation of Mediterranean outflow water (MOW) through the Gibraltar Gateway and its influence on global circulation and climate. It is also a prime area for understanding the effects of tectonic activity on evolution of the Gibraltar Gateway and on margin sedimentation. We penetrated into the Miocene at two different sites and established a strong signal of MOW in the sedimentary record of the Gulf of Cadiz, following the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway. Preliminary results show the initiation of contourite deposition at 4.2–4.5 Ma, although subsequent research will establish whether this dates the onset of MOW. The Pliocene succession, penetrated at four sites, shows low bottom current activity linked with a weak MOW. Significant widespread unconformities, present in all sites but with hiatuses of variable duration, are interpreted as a signal of intensified MOW, coupled with flow confinement. The Quaternary succession shows a much more pronounced phase of contourite drift development, with two periods of MOW intensification separated by a widespread unconformity. Following this, the final phase of drift evolution established the contourite depositional system (CDS) architecture we see today. There is a significant climate control on this evolution of MOW and bottom-current activity. However, from the closure of the Atlantic–Mediterranean gateways in Spain and Morocco just over 6 Ma and the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway at 5.3 Ma, there has been an even stronger tectonic control on margin development, downslope sediment transport and contourite drift evolution. The Gulf of Cadiz is the world's premier contourite laboratory and thus presents an ideal testing ground for the contourite paradigm. Further study of these contourites will allow us to resolve outstanding issues related to depositional processes, drift budgets, and recognition of fossil contourites in the ancient record on shore. The expedition also verified an enormous quantity and extensive distribution of contourite sands that are clean and well sorted. These represent a relatively untapped and important exploration target for potential oil and gas reservoirs.

Eutrophication weakens stabilizing effects of diversity in natural grasslands

Studies of experimental grassland communities have demonstrated that plant diversity can stabilize productivity through species asynchrony, in which decreases in the biomass of some species are compensated for by increases in others. However, it remains unknown whether these findings are relevant to natural ecosystems, especially those for which species diversity is threatened by anthropogenic global change. Here we analyse diversity-stability relationships from 41 grasslands on five continents and examine how these relationships are affected by chronic fertilization, one of the strongest drivers of species loss globally. Unmanipulated communities with more species had greater species asynchrony, resulting in more stable biomass production, generalizing a result from biodiversity experiments to real-world grasslands. However, fertilization weakened the positive effect of diversity on stability. Contrary to expectations, this was not due to species loss after eutrophication but rather to an increase in the temporal variation of productivity in combination with a decrease in species asynchrony in diverse communities. Our results demonstrate separate and synergistic effects of diversity and eutrophication on stability, emphasizing the need to understand how drivers of global change interactively affect the reliable provisioning of ecosystem services in real-world systems.

A rapid assessment of the effects of extreme weather on two Great Barrier Reef industries

In coastal areas, extreme weather events, such as floods and cyclones, can have debilitating effects on the social and economic viability of marine-based industries. In March 2011, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority implemented an Extreme Weather Response Program, following a period of intense flooding and cyclonic activity between December 2010 and February 2011. In this paper, we discuss the results of a project within the Program, which aimed to: (1) assess the impacts of extreme weather events on regional tourism and commercial fishing industries; and (2) develop and road-test an impact assessment matrix to improve government and industry responses to extreme weather events. Results revealed that extreme weather events both directly and indirectly affected all five of the measured categories, i.e. ecological, personal, social, infrastructure and economic components. The severity of these impacts, combined with their location and the nature of their business, influenced how tourism operators and fishers assessed the impact of the events (low, medium, high or extreme). The impact assessment tool was revised following feedback obtained during stakeholder workshops and may prove useful for managers in responding to potential direct and indirect impacts of future extreme weather events on affected marine industries. © 2013 Planning Institute Australia.

Effects of child care policy and environment on physical activity

Child care centers differ systematically with respect to the quality and quantity of physical activity they provide, suggesting that center-level policies and practices, as well as the center's physical environment, are important influences on children's physical activity behavior. Purpose To summarize and critically evaluate the extant peer-reviewed literature on the influence of child care policy and environment on physical activity in preschool-aged children. Methods A computer database search identified seven relevant studies that were categorized into three broad areas: cross-sectional studies investigating the impact of selected center-level policies and practices on moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), studies correlating specific attributes of the outdoor play environment with the level and intensity of MVPA, and studies in which a specific center-level policy or environmental attribute was experimentally manipulated and evaluated for changes in MVPA. Results Staff education and training, as well as staff behavior on the playground, seem to be salient influences on MVPA in preschoolers. Lower playground density (less children per square meter) and the presence of vegetation and open play areas also seem to be positive influences on MVPA. However, not all studies found these attributes to be significant. The availability and quality of portable play equipment, not the amount or type of fixed play equipment, significantly influenced MVPA levels. Conclusions Emerging evidence suggests that several policy and environmental factors contribute to the marked between-center variability in physical activity and sedentary behavior. Intervention studies targeting these factors are thus warranted.

The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China

This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha—a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0–3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10–25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0–2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%–8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%–7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.

Contribution of fibroblast and mast cell (afferent) and tumor (efferent) IL-6 effects within the tumor microenvironment

Hyperactive inflammatory responses following cancer initiation have led to cancer being described as a 'wound that never heals'. These inflammatory responses elicit signals via NFκB leading to IL-6 production, and IL-6 in turn has been shown to induce epithelial to mesenchymal transition in breast cancer cells in vitro, implicating a role for this cytokine in cancer cell invasion. We previously have shown that conditioned medium derived from cancer-associated fibroblasts induced an Epithelial to Mesenchymal transition (EMT) in PMC42-LA breast cancer cells and we have now identify IL-6 as present in this medium. We further show that IL-6 is expressed approximately 100 fold higher in a cancer-associated fibroblast line compared to normal fibroblasts. Comparison of mouse-specific (stroma) and human-specific (tumor) IL-6 mRNA expression from MCF-7, MDA MB 468 and MDA MB 231 xenografts also indicated the stroma rather than tumor as a significantly higher source of IL-6 expression. Mast cells (MCs) feature in inflammatory cancer-associated stroma, and activated MCs secrete IL-6. We observed a higher MC index (average number of mast cells per xenograft section/average tumor size) in MDA MB 468 compared to MDA MB 231 xenografts, where all MC were observed to be active (degranulating). This higher MC index correlated with greater mouse-specific IL-6 expression in the MDA MB 468 xenografts, implicating MC as an important source of stromal IL-6. Furthermore, immunohistochemistry on these xenografts for pSTAT3, which lies downstream of the IL-6 receptor indicated frequent correlations between pSTAT3 and mast cell positive cells. Analysis of publically available databases for IL-6 expression in patient tissue revealed higher IL-6 in laser capture microdissected stroma compared to adjacent tissue epithelium from patients with inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) and invasive non-inflammatory breast cancer (non-IBC) and we show that IL-6 expression was significantly higher in Basal versus Luminal molecular/phenotypic groupings of breast cancer cell lines. Finally, we discuss how afferent and efferent IL-6 pathways may participate in a positive feedback cycle to dictate tumor progression.