The Metapopulation Dynamics of an Infectious Disease: Tuberculosis in Possums

An SEI metapopulation model is developed for the spread of an infectious agent by migration. The model portrays two age classes on a number of patches connected by migration routes which are used as host animals mature. A feature of this model is that the basic reproduction ratio may be computed directly, using a scheme that separates topography, demography, and epidemiology. We also provide formulas for individual patch basic reproduction numbers and discuss their connection with the basic reproduction ratio for the system. The model is applied to the problem of spatial spread of bovine tuberculosis in a possum population. The temporal dynamics of infection are investigated for some generic networks of migration links, and the basic reproduction ratio is computed—its value is not greatly different from that for a homogeneous model. Three scenarios are considered for the control of bovine tuberculosis in possums where the spatial aspect is shown to be crucial for the design of disease management operations

Tax expenditures in Australia : the elevation from ‘disguised’ expenditures to architectural pillars of the 21st century

The current Australian Treasury approach to tax expenditures management and reporting is a culmination of 36 years of Government and Parliamentary reviews and reports. The most notable outcome of these reviews and reports is the publication of the annual tax expenditures statement, which commenced in 1986. Since its inception, the Australian annual tax expenditures statements have themselves been the subject of review. Most recently, the Australian National Audit Office has undertaken a performance audit in the Department of the Treasury and released its report entitled Preparation of the Tax Expenditures Statement. In addition to this 2008 report, a second recent opportunity to consider tax expenditures within the Australian tax regime has arisen. The Australian tax system is currently undergoing a comprehensive and broad review with the terms of reference requiring a consideration of all relevant tax expenditures. While the recommendations of the Australian National Audit Office are not novel, and it is not unusual for a broader review to consider the role of tax expenditures within the Australian tax system, both the recommendations of the Australian National Audit Office and the views of the current Review Panel take on a renewed sense of importance given the proliferation of tax expenditures in Australia. Tax expenditures, in terms of number and pecuniary value, have increased significantly in Australia in recent years. The latest Tax Expenditures Statement lists around 320 tax expenditures with the pecuniary value of those expenditures estimated at $73.69 billion or 7.1% of GDP. The largest category of tax expenditures listed in the 2008 Tax Expenditures Statement, totalling $29.23 billion, relate to concessions aimed at retirement savings.

Control and application of minimally-actuated underwater vehicles

Establishing a persistent presence in the ocean with an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle capable of observing temporal variability of large-scale ocean processes requires a unique sensor platform. In this paper, we examine the utility of Lagrangian profiling floats for such extended deployments. We propose a strategy that utilizes ocean model predictions to facilitate a basic level of autonomy to achieve general control of this minimally-actuated underwater vehicle. We extend experimentally validated techniques for utilising ocean current models to control under-actuated autonomous underwater vehicles by presenting this investigation into the application of these methods on profiling floats. With the appropriate vertical actuation, and utilising spatiotemporal variations in water speed and direction, we show that broad controllability results can be met. First, we apply an A* planner to a local controllability map generated from predictions of ocean currents. This computes a path between start and goal waypoints that has the highest likelihood of successful execution over a given duration. The computed depth plan is generated with a model predictive controller, and selects the depths for the vehicle so that ambient currents guide it toward the goal. Mission constraints are included to simulate and motivate a practical data collection mission. Results are presented in simulation for a mission off the coast of Los Angeles, CA USA, that show surprising results in the ability of a drifting vehicle to maintain a prescribed course and reach a desired location.

Leveraging innovation for sustainable construction, proceedings of the CIB Task Group 58: Clients and Construction Innovation Workshop

This publication consists of a volume of papers presented at the workshop of the CIB Task Group 58: Clients and Construction Innovation, held on May 18- 19, 2009 at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, Canada. The workshop theme, “Leveraging Innovation for Sustainable Construction”, reflects a growing concern among clients for perspectives, approaches, and tools that will secure the practice of construction economically, socially, and environmentally. This collection encompasses some of the most incisive assessments of the challenges facing the construction industry today from a range of researchers and industry practitioners who are leading the way for tomorrow’s innovations. It provides a useful documentation of the ongoing conversation regarding innovation and sustainability issues and a foundation of knowledge for future research and development. The papers contained in this volume explore the workshop’s overarching theme of how to leverage innovation to increase the sustainability of the construction process and product. Participants sought to generate discussion on the topics of innovation and sustainability within the construction field, to share international examples of innovation from the research community and from industry, and to establish a point of reference for ongoing enquiry. In particular, our contributors have noted the value of learning through practice in order to orient research based on real-world industry experience. Chapters two and three present complementary models of sustainable research programs through the three parts collaboration of government, industry, and academia. Chapters four and five explore new tools and forms of technological innovation as they are deployed to improve construction project management and set the direction for advances in research. Chapters six, seven, and eight closely study practical examples of innovation in large-scale construction projects, showing with concrete results the impact of applying creative methods and best practices to the field. Innovation and sustainability in construction are truly global efforts; these papers illustrate how we can draw on international examples and cooperative organizations to address these important issues for long-term benefit of the industry.

Fusion of morphological images for airborne target detection

Several track-before-detection approaches for image based aircraft detection have recently been examined in an important automated aircraft collision detection application. A particularly popular approach is a two stage processing paradigm which involves: a morphological spatial filter stage (which aims to emphasize the visual characteristics of targets) followed by a temporal or track filter stage (which aims to emphasize the temporal characteristics of targets). In this paper, we proposed new spot detection techniques for this two stage processing paradigm that fuse together raw and morphological images or fuse together various different morphological images (we call these approaches morphological reinforcement). On the basis of flight test data, the proposed morphological reinforcement operations are shown to offer superior signal to-noise characteristics when compared to standard spatial filter options (such as the close-minus-open and adaptive contour morphological operations). However, system operation characterised curves, which examine detection verses false alarm characteristics after both processing stages, illustrate that system performance is very data dependent.

Dynamics of rod and cone photoreceptor interactions under mesopic light levels

Visual adaptation regulates contrast sensitivity during dynamically changing light conditions (Crawford, 1947; Hecht, Haig & Chase, 1937). These adaptation dynamics are unknown under dim (mesopic) light levels when the rod (R) and long (L), medium (M) and short (S) wavelength cone photoreceptor classes contribute to vision via interactions in shared non-opponent Magnocellular (MC), chromatically opponent Parvocellular (PC) and Koniocellular (KC) visual pathways (Dacey, 2000). This study investigated the time-course of adaptation and post-receptoral pathways mediating receptor specific rod and cone interactions under mesopic illumination. A four-primary photostimulator (Pokorny, Smithson & Quinlan, 2004) was used to independently control the activity of the four photoreceptor classes and their post-receptoral visual athways in human observers. In the first experiment, the contrast sensitivity and time-course of visual adaptation under mesopic illumination were measured for receptoral (L, S, R) and post-receptoral (LMS, LMSR, L-M) stimuli. An incremental (Rapid-ON) sawtooth conditioning pulse biased detection to ON-cells within the visual pathways and sensitivity was assayed relative to pulse onset using a briefly presented incremental probe that did not alter adaptation. Cone.Cone interactions with luminance stimuli (L cone, LMS, LMSR) reduced sensitivity by 15% and the time course of recovery was 25± 5ms-1 (μ ± SEM). PC mediated (+L-M) chromatic stimuli sensitivity loss was less (8%) than for luminance and recovery was slower (μ = 2.95 ± 0.05 ms-1), with KC mediated (S cone) chromatic stimuli showing a high sensitivity loss (38%) and the slowest recovery time (1.6 ± 0.2 ms-1). Rod-Rod interactions increased sensitivity by 20% and the time course of recovery was 0.7 ± 0.2 ms-1 (μ ± SD). Compared to these interaction types, Rod-Cone interactions reduced sensitivity to a lesser degree (5%) and showed the fastest recovery (μ = 43 ± 7 ms-1). In the second experiment, rod contribution to the magnocellular, parvocellular and koniocellular post-receptoral pathways under mesopic illumination was determined as a function of incremental stimulus duration and waveform (rectangular; sawtooth) using a rod colour match procedure (Cao, Pokorny & Smith, 2005; Cao, Pokorny, Smith & Zele, 2008a). For a 30% rod increment, a cone match required a decrease in [L/(L+M)] and an increase in [L+M] and [S/(L+M)], giving a greenish-blue and brighter appearance for probe durations of 75 ms or longer. Probe durations less than 75 ms showed an increase in [L+M] and no change in chromaticity [L/(L+M) or S/(L+M)], uggesting mediation by the MC pathway only for short duration rod stimuli. s We advance previous studies by determining the time-course and nature of photoreceptor specific retinal interactions in the three post-receptoral pathways under mesopic illumination. In the first experiment, the time-course of adaptation for ON cell processing was determined, revealing opponent cell facilitation in chromatic PC and KC pathways. The Rod-Rod and Rod-Cone data identify previously unknown interaction types that act to maintain contrast sensitivity during dynamically changing light conditions and improve the speed of light adaptation under mesopic light levels. The second experiment determined the degree of rod contribution to the inferred post-eceptoral pathways as a function of the temporal properties of the rod signal. r The understanding of the mechanisms underlying interactions between photoreceptors under mesopic illumination has implications for the study of retinal disease. Visual function has been shown to be reduced in persons with age-related maculopathy (ARM) risk genotypes prior to clinical signs of the disease (Feigl, Cao, Morris & Zele, 2011) and disturbances in rod-mediated adaptation have been shown in early phases of ARM (Dimitrov, Guymer, Zele, Anderson & Vingrys, 2008; Feigl, Brown, Lovie-Kitchin & Swann, 2005). Also, the understanding of retinal networks controlling vision enables the development of international lighting standards to optimise visual performance nder dim light levels (e.g. work-place environments, transportation).

The Industry Commission inquiry into charitable organisations : the draft report implications for the future of community services

In December 1993, the Commonwealth Assistant Treasurer., Mr George Gear announced an Inquiry into Charitable Organisations in Australia. The inquiry would be undertaken by the Industry Commission, the structure charged by the Commonwealth to oversight its micro-economic reform agenda. The inquiry had been on the Industry Commission's forward workplan since 1992. In July 1993 a draft terms of reference was prepared for comment by the State Premiers...

Assessment of flood-related recharge to alluvial aquifers of an irrigated catchment following extended drought conditions using 3D visualisation and environmental tracers, Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland, Australia.

The Lockyer Valley in southeast Queensland, Australia, hosts an economically significant alluvial aquifer system which has been impacted by prolonged drought conditions (~1997 to ~ 2009). Throughout this time, the system was under continued groundwater extraction, resulting in severe aquifer depletion. By 2008, much of the aquifer was at <30% of storage but some relief occurred with rains in early 2009. However, between December 2010 and January 2011, most of southeast Queensland experienced unprecedented flooding, which generated significant aquifer recharge. In order to understand the spatial and temporal controls of groundwater recharge in the alluvium, a detailed 3D lithological property model of gravels, sands and clays was developed using GOCAD software. The spatial distribution of recharge throughout the catchment was assessed using hydrograph data from about 400 groundwater observation wells screened at the base of the alluvium. Water levels from these bores were integrated into a catchment-wide 3D geological model using the 3D geological modelling software GOCAD; the model highlights the complexity of recharge mechanisms. To support this analysis, groundwater tracers (e.g. major and minor ions, stable isotopes, 3H and 14C) were used as independent verification. The use of these complementary methods has allowed the identification of zones where alluvial recharge primarily occurs from stream water during episodic flood events. However, the study also demonstrates that in some sections of the alluvium, rainfall recharge and discharge from the underlying basement into the alluvium are the primary recharge mechanisms of the alluvium. This is indicated by the absence of any response to the flood, as well as the observed old radiocarbon ages and distinct basement water chemistry signatures at these locations. Within the 3D geological model, integration of water chemistry and time-series displays of water level surfaces before and after the flood suggests that the spatial variations of the flood response in the alluvium are primarily controlled by the valley morphology and lithological variations within the alluvium. The integration of time-series of groundwater level surfaces in the 3D geological model also enables the quantification of the volumetric change of groundwater stored in the unconfined sections of this alluvial aquifer during drought and following flood events. The 3D representation and analysis of hydraulic and recharge information has considerable advantages over the traditional 2D approach. For example, while many studies focus on singular aspects of catchment dynamics and groundwater-surface water interactions, the 3D approach is capable of integrating multiple types of information (topography, geological, hydraulic, water chemistry and spatial) into a single representation which provides valuable insights into the major factors controlling aquifer processes.

Assessment of interactions between alluvial, Great Artesian Basin (GAB) and volcanic aquifers using 3D visualisation and environmental tracers, Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland, Australia

A detailed 3D lithological model framework was developed using GOCAD software to understand interactions between alluvial, volcanic and GAB aquifers and the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge to the alluvium of the Lockyer Valley. Groundwater chemistry, isotope data (H20-δ2H and δ18O , 87Sr/86Sr, 3H and 14C) and groundwater level time-series data from approximately 550 observation wells were integrated into the catchment-wide 3D model to assess the recharge processes involved. This approach enabled the identification of zones where recharge to the alluvium primarily occurs from stream water during episodic flood events. Importantly, the study also demonstrates that in some sections of the alluvium recharge is also from storm rainfall and seepage discharge from the underlying GAB aquifers. These other sources of recharge are indicated by (a) the absence of a response of groundwater levels to flooding in some areas, (b) old radiocarbon ages, and (c) distinct bedrock water chemistry and δ2H and δ18O signatures in alluvial groundwater at these locations. Integration of isotopes, water chemistry and time-series displays of groundwater levels before and after the 2010/2011 flood into the 3D model suggest that the spatial variations in the alluvial groundwater response are mostly controlled by valley morphology and lithological (i.e. permeability) variations within the alluvium. Examination of the groundwater level variations in the 3D model also enabled quantification of the volumetric change of groundwater stored in the unconfined alluvial aquifer prior to and post-flood events.

Effect on charitable bodies of taxation alternations

It appears that the Industry Commission terms of reference will include a review of (among other things) the appropriateness of the present taxation treatment of charitable organisations. It is uncertain exactly which taxation treatments might be reviewed. However, at a federal government level, a review of the current taxation treatment of charitable organisations could refer to a review of the following taxation measures...

THE meaning of effectiveness

As the Industry Commission prepares to engage in its examination of the Australian nonprofit sector as defined in its draft terms of reference, it confronts what it should regard as a fundamental dilemma; the meaning of the construct `effectiveness'. I should at this point state clearly that the potential difficulties are not unique to the task of the Commission, but have instead plagued human service evaluation for many a long year. At the level of human service or welfare practice, a favoured method of resolving the conundrum has been to dismiss it as irrelevant to the human services as it pursues its task of working for human betterment however understood. Such a response highlights a fundamental characteristic of the human services generally, not only in the nonprofit arena: their relative freedom from evaluation. While there are many reasons for this, some of which we will canvass later in this paper, one stems from a lack of clarity about the meaning of effectiveness coupled with a lack of consensus about its purpose.

Agronomic and economic evaluation of irrigation strategies on cotton lint yield in Australia

Cotton is one of the most important irrigated crops in subtropical Australia. In recent years, cotton production has been severely affected by the worst drought in recorded history, with the 2007–08 growing season recording the lowest average cotton yield in 30 years. The use of a crop simulation model to simulate the long-term temporal distribution of cotton yields under different levels of irrigation and the marginal value for each unit of water applied is important in determining the economic feasibility of current irrigation practices. The objectives of this study were to: (i) evaluate the CROPGRO-Cotton simulation model for studying crop growth under deficit irrigation scenarios across ten locations in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland (Qld); (ii) evaluate agronomic and economic responses to water inputs across the ten locations; and (iii) determine the economically optimal irrigation level. The CROPGRO-Cotton simulation model was evaluated using 2 years of experimental data collected at Kingsthorpe, Qld. The model was further evaluated using data from nine locations between northern NSW and southern Qld. Long-term simulations were based on the prevalent furrowirrigation practice of refilling the soil profile when the plant -available soil water content is<50%. The model closely estimated lint yield for all locations evaluated. Our results showed that the amounts of water needed to maximise profit and maximise yield are different, which has economic and environmental implications. Irrigation needed to maximise profits varied with both agronomic and economic factors, which can be quite variable with season and location. Therefore, better tools and information that consider the agronomic and economic implications of irrigation decisions need to be developed and made available to growers.

Submission to the Joint Select Committee on Cyber Safety. Inquiry into the Cybersafety of Seniors.

This submission addresses the following terms of reference: 1) the nature, prevalence and level of cybersafety risks and threats experienced by senior Australians; 2) the impact and implications of those risks and threats on access and use of information and communication technologies by senior Australians; 3) the adequacy and effectiveness of current government and industry initiatives to respond to those threats, including education initiatives aimed at senior Australians; 4) best practice safeguards, and any possible changes to Australian law, policy or practice that will strengthen the cybersafety of senior Australians.

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Dengue fever is one of the world’s most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many factors including urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative techniques are primarily based on controlling mosquito vectors as other prophylactic measures, such as a tetravalent vaccine are unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future. However, the continually increasing dengue incidence suggests that this strategy alone is not sufficient. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of accurately predicting disease outbreaks. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

Informational constraints on the emergence of passing direction in the team sport of futsal

This study investigated compound spatial and temporal measures of interpersonal interactions purported to constrain the emergence of affordances for passing direction in the team sport of futsal. For this purpose, attacker–defender interactions in 37 sequences of play from a futsal competition in which 24 male professional players participated (M=30.04 years, SD=4.10) were filmed and analysed using TACTO software. Relative angle data were used as measures to study coordination tendencies that emerged between players during performance. Results showed that the direction for a pass emerged from relative angles between: (1) the vector from a ball carrier to ball receiver and the vector from the ball carrier to the nearest defender (70°) (p<0.01) and (2) the vector from a ball carrier to ball receiver and the vector from the ball carrier to a ball receiver's nearest defender (31°) (p < 0.01). Furthermore, passing direction was also constrained by temporal information from the emergence of both angles, since the pass was performed to attacker–defender dyads with the highest velocities of these angles (p < 0.05). Results suggested that decisions on selecting the direction of a pass in the team sport of futsal emerged at critical values of these key compound motion measures.