Creativity in policing: building the necessary skills to solve complex and protracted investigations

Despite an increased focus on proactive policing in recent years, criminal investigation is still perhaps the most important task of any law enforcement agency. As a result, the skills required to carry out a successful investigation or to be an ‘effective detective’ have been subjected to much attention and debate (Smith and Flanagan, 2000; Dean, 2000; Fahsing and Gottschalk, 2008:652). Stelfox (2008:303) states that “The service’s capacity to carry out investigations comprises almost entirely the expertise of investigators.” In this respect, Dean (2000) highlighted the need to profile criminal investigators in order to promote further understanding of the cognitive approaches they take to the process of criminal investigation. As a result of his research, Dean (2000) produced a theoretical framework of criminal investigation, which included four disparate cognitive or ‘thinking styles’. These styles were the ‘Method’, ‘Challenge’, ‘Skill’ and ‘Risk’. While the Method and Challenge styles deal with adherence to Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) and the internal ‘drive’ that keeps an investigator going, the Skill and Risk styles both tap on the concept of creativity in policing. It is these two latter styles that provide the focus for this paper. This paper presents a brief discussion on Dean’s (2000) Skill and Risk styles before giving an overview of the broader literature on creativity in policing. The potential benefits of a creative approach as well as some hurdles which need to be overcome when proposing the integration of creativity within the policing sector are then discussed. Finally, the paper concludes by proposing further research into Dean’s (2000) skill and risk styles and also by stressing the need for significant changes to the structure and approach of the traditional policing organisation before creativity in policing is given the status it deserves.

Time dependency of molecular rate estimates and systematic overestimation of recent divergence times

Studies of molecular evolutionary rates have yielded a wide range of rate estimates for various genes and taxa. Recent studies based on population-level and pedigree data have produced remarkably high estimates of mutation rate, which strongly contrast with substitution rates inferred in phylogenetic (species-level) studies. Using Bayesian analysis with a relaxed-clock model, we estimated rates for three groups of mitochondrial data: avian protein-coding genes, primate protein-coding genes, and primate d-loop sequences. In all three cases, we found a measurable transition between the high, short-term (<1–2 Myr) mutation rate and the low, long-term substitution rate. The relationship between the age of the calibration and the rate of change can be described by a vertically translated exponential decay curve, which may be used for correcting molecular date estimates. The phylogenetic substitution rates in mitochondria are approximately 0.5% per million years for avian protein-coding sequences and 1.5% per million years for primate protein-coding and d-loop sequences. Further analyses showed that purifying selection offers the most convincing explanation for the observed relationship between the estimated rate and the depth of the calibration. We rule out the possibility that it is a spurious result arising from sequence errors, and find it unlikely that the apparent decline in rates over time is caused by mutational saturation. Using a rate curve estimated from the d-loop data, several dates for last common ancestors were calculated: modern humans and Neandertals (354 ka; 222–705 ka), Neandertals (108 ka; 70–156 ka), and modern humans (76 ka; 47–110 ka). If the rate curve for a particular taxonomic group can be accurately estimated, it can be a useful tool for correcting divergence date estimates by taking the rate decay into account. Our results show that it is invalid to extrapolate molecular rates of change across different evolutionary timescales, which has important consequences for studies of populations, domestication, conservation genetics, and human evolution.

Ambient temperature and cardiorespiratory morbidity : a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The effect of extreme temperature has become an increasing public health concern. Evaluating the impact of ambient temperature on morbidity has received less attention than its impact on mortality. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review and extracted quantitative estimates of the effects of hot temperatures on cardiorespiratory morbidity. There were too few studies on effects of cold temperatures to warrant a summary. Pooled estimates of effects of heat were calculated using a Bayesian hierarchical approach that allowed multiple results to be included from the same study, particularly results at different latitudes and with varying lagged effects. RESULTS: Twenty-one studies were included in the final meta-analysis. The pooled results suggest an increase of 3.2% (95% posterior interval = -3.2% to 10.1%) in respiratory morbidity with 1°C increase on hot days. No apparent association was observed for cardiovascular morbidity (-0.5% [-3.0% to 2.1%]). The length of lags had inconsistent effects on the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity, whereas latitude had little effect on either. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of temperature on cardiorespiratory morbidity seemed to be smaller and more variable than previous findings related to mortality.

Floods and human health : a systematic review

Floods are the most common type of disaster globally, responsible for almost 53,000 deaths in the last decade alone (23:1 low- versus high-income countries). This review assessed recent epidemiological evidence on the impacts of floods on human health. Published articles (2004–2011) on the quantitative relationship between floods and health were systematically reviewed. 35 relevant epidemiological studies were identified. Health outcomes were categorized into short- and long-term and were found to depend on the flood characteristics and people's vulnerability. It was found that long-term health effects are currently not well understood. Mortality rates were found to increase by up to 50% in the first year post-flood. After floods, it was found there is an increased risk of disease outbreaks such as hepatitis E, gastrointestinal disease and leptospirosis, particularly in areas with poor hygiene and displaced populations. Psychological distress in survivors (prevalence 8.6% to 53% two years post-flood) can also exacerbate their physical illness. There is a need for effective policies to reduce and prevent flood-related morbidity and mortality. Such steps are contingent upon the improved understanding of potential health impacts of floods. Global trends in urbanization, burden of disease, malnutrition and maternal and child health must be better reflected in flood preparedness and mitigation programs.

Reliance on internal autopsies in coronial investigations : a review of the issues

Internal autopsies are invasive and result in the mutilation of the deceased person’s body. They are expensive and pose occupational health and safety risks. Accordingly, they should only be done for good cause. However, until recently, “full” internal autopsies have usually been undertaken in most coroners’ cases. There is a growing trend against this practice but it is meeting resistance from some pathologists who argue that any decision as to the extent of the autopsy should rest with them. This paper examines the origins of the coronial system to place in context the current approach to a death investigation and to review the debate about the role of an internal autopsy in the coronial system.

Prevalence of hallux valgus in the general population : a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Hallux valgus (HV) is a foot deformity commonly seen in medical practice, often accompanied by significant functional disability and foot pain. Despite frequent mention in a diverse body of literature, a precise estimate of the prevalence of HV is difficult to ascertain. The purpose of this systematic review was to investigate prevalence of HV in the overall population and evaluate the influence of age and gender. METHODS: Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, and CINAHL) and reference lists of included papers were searched to June 2009 for papers on HV prevalence without language restriction. MeSH terms and keywords were used relating to HV or bunions, prevalence and various synonyms. Included studies were surveys reporting original data for prevalence of HV or bunions in healthy populations of any age group. Surveys reporting prevalence data grouped with other foot deformities and in specific disease groups (e.g. rheumatoid arthritis, diabetes) were excluded. Two independent investigators quality rated all included papers on the Epidemiological Appraisal Instrument. Data on raw prevalence, population studied and methodology were extracted. Prevalence proportions and the standard error were calculated, and meta-analysis was performed using a random effects model. RESULTS: A total of 78 papers reporting results of 76 surveys (total 496,957 participants) were included and grouped by study population for meta-analysis. Pooled prevalence estimates for HV were 23% in adults aged 18-65 years (CI: 16.3 to 29.6) and 35.7% in elderly people aged over 65 years (CI: 29.5 to 42.0). Prevalence increased with age and was higher in females [30% (CI: 22 to 38)] compared to males [13% (CI: 9 to 17)]. Potential sources of bias were sampling method, study quality and method of HV diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Notwithstanding the wide variation in estimates, it is evident that HV is prevalent; more so in females and with increasing age. Methodological quality issues need to be addressed in interpreting reports in the literature and in future research.

Quality-of-life among head and neck cancer survivors at one year after treatment – A systematic review

Abstract Background: The importance of quality-of-life (QoL) research has been recognised over the past two decades in patients with head and neck (H&N) cancer. The aims of this systematic review are to evaluate the QoL status of H&N cancer survivors one year after treatment and to identify the determinants affecting their QoL. Methods: Pubmed, Medline, Scopus, Sciencedirect and CINAHL (2000–2011) were searched for relevant studies, and two of the present authors assessed their methodological quality. The characteristics and main findings of the studies were extracted and reported. Results: Thirty-seven studies met the inclusion criteria, and the methodological quality of the majority was moderate to high. While patients of the group in question recover their global QoL by 12 months after treatment, a number of outstanding issues persist – deterioration in physical functioning, fatigue, xerostomia and sticky saliva. Age, cancer site, stage of disease, social support, smoking, feeding tube placement and alcohol consumption are the significant determinants of QoL at 12 months, while gender has little or no influence. Conclusions: Regular assessments should be carried out to monitor physical functioning,degree of fatigue, xerostomia and sticky saliva. Further research is required to develop appropriate and effective interventions to deal with these issues, and thus to promote the patients’ QoL.

Re-examining the evidence in radiation dermatitis management literature : an overview and a critical appraisal of systematic reviews

Purpose: To provide an overview and a critical appraisal of systematic reviews (SRs) of published interventions for the prevention/management of radiation dermatitis. Methods and Materials: We searched Medline, CINAHL, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. We also manually searched through individual reference lists of potentially eligible articles and a number of key journals in the topic area. Two authors screened all potential articles and included eligible SRs. Two authors critically appraised and extracted key findings from the included reviews using AMSTAR (the measurement tool for “assessment of multiple systematic reviews”). Results: Of 1837 potential titles, 6 SRs were included. A number of interventions have been reported to be potentially beneficial for managing radiation dermatitis. Interventions evaluated in these reviews included skin care advice, steroidal/nonsteroidal topical agents, systemic therapies, modes of radiation delivery, and dressings. However, all the included SRs reported that there is insufficient evidence supporting any single effective intervention. The methodological quality of the included studies varied, and methodological shortfalls in these reviews might create biases to the overall results or recommendations for clinical practice. Conclusions: An up-to-date high-quality SR in the prevention/management of radiation dermatitis is needed to guide practice and direction for future research. We recommend that clinicians or guideline developers critically evaluate the information of SRs in their decision making.

Two decades of exceptional achievements : does the evidence support nurses to favour Cochrane systematic reviews over other systematic reviews?

Systematic reviews (SRs) are increasingly recognised as the standard approach in summarising health research and influence clinical nursing practice and health care decisions (Coster and Norman, 2009, Grimshaw and Russell, 1993 and Griffiths and Norman, 2005). High quality SRs should have a clearly stated set of objectives with pre-defined eligibility criteria for studies; an explicit reproducible methodology; a systematic search that attempts to identify all studies that would meet the eligibility criteria; an assessment of the validity of the findings of the included studies; the assessment of risk of bias; and a systematic presentation and synthesis of the characteristics of findings of the included study (Higgins and Green, 2011). Although SRs are highly regarded and are expected to be rigorous, just as other research, their quality may vary (Choi et al., 2001 and Hoving et al., 2001)...

Nutritional support in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of nutritional support in the management of malnutrition in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is controversial. Previous meta-analyses, based on only cross-sectional analysis at the end of intervention trials, found no evidence of improved outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to conduct a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to clarify the efficacy of nutritional support in improving intake, anthropometric measures, and grip strength in stable COPD. DESIGN: Literature databases were searched to identify RCTs comparing nutritional support with controls in stable COPD. RESULTS: Thirteen RCTs (n = 439) of nutritional support [dietary advice (1 RCT), oral nutritional supplements (ONS; 11 RCTs), and enteral tube feeding (1 RCT)] with a control comparison were identified. An analysis of the changes induced by nutritional support and those obtained only at the end of the intervention showed significantly greater increases in mean total protein and energy intakes with nutritional support of 14.8 g and 236 kcal daily. Meta-analyses also showed greater mean (±SE) improvements in favor of nutritional support for body weight (1.94 ± 0.26 kg, P < 0.001; 11 studies, n = 308) and grip strength (5.3%, P < 0.050; 4 studies, n = 156), which was not shown by ANOVA at the end of the intervention, largely because of bias associated with baseline imbalance between groups. CONCLUSION: This systematic review and meta-analysis showed that nutritional support, mainly in the form of ONS, improves total intake, anthropometric measures, and grip strength in COPD. These results contrast with the results of previous analyses that were based on only cross-sectional measures at the end of intervention trials.