A circuit-breaker restrike diagnostic algorithm using ATP and wavelet transforms

Circuit breaker restrikes are unwanted occurrence, which can ultimately lead to breaker. Before 2008, there was little evidence in the literature of monitoring techniques based on restrike measurement and interpretation produced during switching of capacitor banks and shunt reactor banks. In 2008 a non-intrusive radiometric restrike measurement method, as well a restrike hardware detection algorithm was developed. The limitations of the radiometric measurement method are a band limited frequency response as well as limitations in amplitude determination. Current detection methods and algorithms required the use of wide bandwidth current transformers and voltage dividers. A novel non-intrusive restrike diagnostic algorithm using ATP (Alternative Transient Program) and wavelet transforms is proposed. Wavelet transforms are the most common use in signal processing, which is divided into two tests, i.e. restrike detection and energy level based on deteriorated waveforms in different types of restrike. A ‘db5’ wavelet was selected in the tests as it gave a 97% correct diagnostic rate evaluated using a database of diagnostic signatures. This was also tested using restrike waveforms simulated under different network parameters which gave a 92% correct diagnostic responses. The diagnostic technique and methodology developed in this research can be applied to any power monitoring system with slight modification for restrike detection.

Stochastic models for regulatory networks of the genetic toggle switch

Bistability arises within a wide range of biological systems from the λ phage switch in bacteria to cellular signal transduction pathways in mammalian cells. Changes in regulatory mechanisms may result in genetic switching in a bistable system. Recently, more and more experimental evidence in the form of bimodal population distributions indicates that noise plays a very important role in the switching of bistable systems. Although deterministic models have been used for studying the existence of bistability properties under various system conditions, these models cannot realize cell-to-cell fluctuations in genetic switching. However, there is a lag in the development of stochastic models for studying the impact of noise in bistable systems because of the lack of detailed knowledge of biochemical reactions, kinetic rates, and molecular numbers. In this work, we develop a previously undescribed general technique for developing quantitative stochastic models for large-scale genetic regulatory networks by introducing Poisson random variables into deterministic models described by ordinary differential equations. Two stochastic models have been proposed for the genetic toggle switch interfaced with either the SOS signaling pathway or a quorum-sensing signaling pathway, and we have successfully realized experimental results showing bimodal population distributions. Because the introduced stochastic models are based on widely used ordinary differential equation models, the success of this work suggests that this approach is a very promising one for studying noise in large-scale genetic regulatory networks.

Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Identifying the beliefs which predict environmentally friendly behaviour in the Brisbane area : a foundation for informed interventions

A move to more sustainable living can provide immediate and long term health and environmental benefits. The Green Living Study consisted of a mail survey of 1186 South East Queensland residents and an online survey of a further 451 individuals, primarily from South East Queensland, and explored the predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. This paper explores the underlying beliefs that were found to predict specific environmentally friendly behaviours, such as walking for transport, switching off lights when not in use, switching off unused appliances at the wall and shopping with reusable bags. Beliefs explored included social norms, advantages and disadvantages of performing the behaviours, and issues of control over ones behaviour. The findings showed that people’s environmentally friendly behaviours may be influenced by convenience, saving money and saving face; i.e. is it easy to do, will I be better off, and will I be seen as ‘different’? Understanding the beliefs which directly predict behaviour can help inform public policy and educational initiatives. A number of models for transferring this knowledge into policy and practice will be discussed.

An improved genetic algorithm and graph theory based method for optimal sectionalizer switch placement in distribution networks with DG

In this paper a new graph-theory and improved genetic algorithm based practical method is employed to solve the optimal sectionalizer switch placement problem. The proposed method determines the best locations of sectionalizer switching devices in distribution networks considering the effects of presence of distributed generation (DG) in fitness functions and other optimization constraints, providing the maximum number of costumers to be supplied by distributed generation sources in islanded distribution systems after possible faults. The proposed method is simulated and tested on several distribution test systems in both cases of with DG and non DG situations. The results of the simulations validate the proposed method for switch placement of the distribution network in the presence of distributed generation.

Performance control of distributed generation using digital estimation of signal parameters

The Queensland University of Technology (QUT) allows the presentation of a thesis for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the format of published or submitted papers, where such papers have been published, accepted or submitted during the period of candidature. This thesis is composed of seven published/submitted papers, of which one has been published, three accepted for publication and the other three are under review. This project is financially supported by an Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Grant with the aim of proposing strategies for the performance control of Distributed Generation (DG) system with digital estimation of power system signal parameters. Distributed Generation (DG) has been recently introduced as a new concept for the generation of power and the enhancement of conventionally produced electricity. Global warming issue calls for renewable energy resources in electricity production. Distributed generation based on solar energy (photovoltaic and solar thermal), wind, biomass, mini-hydro along with use of fuel cell and micro turbine will gain substantial momentum in the near future. Technically, DG can be a viable solution for the issue of the integration of renewable or non-conventional energy resources. Basically, DG sources can be connected to local power system through power electronic devices, i.e. inverters or ac-ac converters. The interconnection of DG systems to power system as a compensator or a power source with high quality performance is the main aim of this study. Source and load unbalance, load non-linearity, interharmonic distortion, supply voltage distortion, distortion at the point of common coupling in weak source cases, source current power factor, and synchronism of generated currents or voltages are the issues of concern. The interconnection of DG sources shall be carried out by using power electronics switching devices that inject high frequency components rather than the desired current. Also, noise and harmonic distortions can impact the performance of the control strategies. To be able to mitigate the negative effect of high frequency and harmonic as well as noise distortion to achieve satisfactory performance of DG systems, new methods of signal parameter estimation have been proposed in this thesis. These methods are based on processing the digital samples of power system signals. Thus, proposing advanced techniques for the digital estimation of signal parameters and methods for the generation of DG reference currents using the estimates provided is the targeted scope of this thesis. An introduction to this research – including a description of the research problem, the literature review and an account of the research progress linking the research papers – is presented in Chapter 1. One of the main parameters of a power system signal is its frequency. Phasor Measurement (PM) technique is one of the renowned and advanced techniques used for the estimation of power system frequency. Chapter 2 focuses on an in-depth analysis conducted on the PM technique to reveal its strengths and drawbacks. The analysis will be followed by a new technique proposed to enhance the speed of the PM technique while the input signal is free of even-order harmonics. The other techniques proposed in this thesis as the novel ones will be compared with the PM technique comprehensively studied in Chapter 2. An algorithm based on the concept of Kalman filtering is proposed in Chapter 3. The algorithm is intended to estimate signal parameters like amplitude, frequency and phase angle in the online mode. The Kalman filter is modified to operate on the output signal of a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filter designed by a plain summation. The frequency estimation unit is independent from the Kalman filter and uses the samples refined by the FIR filter. The frequency estimated is given to the Kalman filter to be used in building the transition matrices. The initial settings for the modified Kalman filter are obtained through a trial and error exercise. Another algorithm again based on the concept of Kalman filtering is proposed in Chapter 4 for the estimation of signal parameters. The Kalman filter is also modified to operate on the output signal of the same FIR filter explained above. Nevertheless, the frequency estimation unit, unlike the one proposed in Chapter 3, is not segregated and it interacts with the Kalman filter. The frequency estimated is given to the Kalman filter and other parameters such as the amplitudes and phase angles estimated by the Kalman filter is taken to the frequency estimation unit. Chapter 5 proposes another algorithm based on the concept of Kalman filtering. This time, the state parameters are obtained through matrix arrangements where the noise level is reduced on the sample vector. The purified state vector is used to obtain a new measurement vector for a basic Kalman filter applied. The Kalman filter used has similar structure to a basic Kalman filter except the initial settings are computed through an extensive math-work with regards to the matrix arrangement utilized. Chapter 6 proposes another algorithm based on the concept of Kalman filtering similar to that of Chapter 3. However, this time the initial settings required for the better performance of the modified Kalman filter are calculated instead of being guessed by trial and error exercises. The simulations results for the parameters of signal estimated are enhanced due to the correct settings applied. Moreover, an enhanced Least Error Square (LES) technique is proposed to take on the estimation when a critical transient is detected in the input signal. In fact, some large, sudden changes in the parameters of the signal at these critical transients are not very well tracked by Kalman filtering. However, the proposed LES technique is found to be much faster in tracking these changes. Therefore, an appropriate combination of the LES and modified Kalman filtering is proposed in Chapter 6. Also, this time the ability of the proposed algorithm is verified on the real data obtained from a prototype test object. Chapter 7 proposes the other algorithm based on the concept of Kalman filtering similar to those of Chapter 3 and 6. However, this time an optimal digital filter is designed instead of the simple summation FIR filter. New initial settings for the modified Kalman filter are calculated based on the coefficients of the digital filter applied. Also, the ability of the proposed algorithm is verified on the real data obtained from a prototype test object. Chapter 8 uses the estimation algorithm proposed in Chapter 7 for the interconnection scheme of a DG to power network. Robust estimates of the signal amplitudes and phase angles obtained by the estimation approach are used in the reference generation of the compensation scheme. Several simulation tests provided in this chapter show that the proposed scheme can very well handle the source and load unbalance, load non-linearity, interharmonic distortion, supply voltage distortion, and synchronism of generated currents or voltages. The purposed compensation scheme also prevents distortion in voltage at the point of common coupling in weak source cases, balances the source currents, and makes the supply side power factor a desired value.

Chronological age and age-related cognitive deficits are associated with an increase in multiple types of driving errors in late life

Objective: Older driver research has mostly focused on identifying that small proportion of older drivers who are unsafe. Little is known about how normal cognitive changes in aging affect driving in the wider population of adults who drive regularly. We evaluated the association of cognitive function and age, with driving errors. Method: A sample of 266 drivers aged 70 to 88 years were assessed on abilities that decline in normal aging (visual attention, processing speed, inhibition, reaction time, task switching) and the UFOV® which is a validated screening instrument for older drivers. Participants completed an on-road driving test. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the associations of cognitive factor with specific driving errors and number of errors in self-directed and instructor navigated conditions. Results: All errors types increased with chronological age. Reaction time was not associated with driving errors in multivariate analyses. A cognitive factor measuring Speeded Selective Attention and Switching was uniquely associated with the most errors types. The UFOV predicted blindspot errors and errors on dual carriageways. After adjusting for age, education and gender the cognitive factors explained 7% of variance in the total number of errors in the instructor navigated condition and 4% of variance in the self-navigated condition. Conclusion: We conclude that among older drivers errors increase with age and are associated with speeded selective attention particularly when that requires attending to the stimuli in the periphery of the visual field, task switching, errors inhibiting responses and visual discrimination. These abilities should be the target of cognitive training.

Information and non-information multitasking interplay

Purpose - During multitasking, humans handle multiple tasks through task switching or engage in multitasking information behaviors. For example, a user switches between seeking new kitchen information and medical information. Recent studies provide insights these complex multitasking human information behaviors (HIB). However, limited studies have examined the interplay between information and non-information tasks. Design/methodology/approach - The goal of the paper was to examine the interplay of information and non-information task behaviors. Findings - This paper explores and speculates on a new direction in HIB research. The nature of HIB as a multitasking activity including the interplay of information and non-information behavior tasks, and the relation between multitasking information behavior to cognitive style and individual differences, is discussed. A model of multitasking between information and non-information behavior tasks is proposed. Practical implications/limitations - Multitasking information behavior models should include the interplay of information and non-information tasks, and individual differences and cognitive styles. Originality/value - The paper is the first information science theoretical examination of the interplay between information and non-information tasks. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Raising awareness of traffic pollution: the potential benefits and problems of using a warning smell

Exposure to traffic pollution is increasing worldwide as people move to cities, and as more vehicles join the roads, creating longer journeys and more traffic jams. Most traffic pollutants are odourless and invisible, which hides exposure from the public. If traffic pollution had a distinctive smell it would enable people to avoid exposure, and increase the political will for difficult policy changes. A smell may also instigate longer-term changes, such as switching to active transport for school pick-ups. A smell could be added using a fuel additive or a temporary device attached to vehicle exhausts.

Flexible high voltage pulsed power supply for plasma applications

Demands for delivering high instantaneous power in a compressed form (pulse shape) have widely increased during recent decades. The flexible shapes with variable pulse specifications offered by pulsed power have made it a practical and effective supply method for an extensive range of applications. In particular, the release of basic subatomic particles (i.e. electron, proton and neutron) in an atom (ionization process) and the synthesizing of molecules to form ions or other molecules are among those reactions that necessitate large amount of instantaneous power. In addition to the decomposition process, there have recently been requests for pulsed power in other areas such as in the combination of molecules (i.e. fusion, material joining), gessoes radiations (i.e. electron beams, laser, and radar), explosions (i.e. concrete recycling), wastewater, exhausted gas, and material surface treatments. These pulses are widely employed in the silent discharge process in all types of materials (including gas, fluid and solid); in some cases, to form the plasma and consequently accelerate the associated process. Due to this fast growing demand for pulsed power in industrial and environmental applications, the exigency of having more efficient and flexible pulse modulators is now receiving greater consideration. Sensitive applications, such as plasma fusion and laser guns also require more precisely produced repetitive pulses with a higher quality. Many research studies are being conducted in different areas that need a flexible pulse modulator to vary pulse features to investigate the influence of these variations on the application. In addition, there is the need to prevent the waste of a considerable amount of energy caused by the arc phenomena that frequently occur after the plasma process. The control over power flow during the supply process is a critical skill that enables the pulse supply to halt the supply process at any stage. Different pulse modulators which utilise different accumulation techniques including Marx Generators (MG), Magnetic Pulse Compressors (MPC), Pulse Forming Networks (PFN) and Multistage Blumlein Lines (MBL) are currently employed to supply a wide range of applications. Gas/Magnetic switching technologies (such as spark gap and hydrogen thyratron) have conventionally been used as switching devices in pulse modulator structures because of their high voltage ratings and considerably low rising times. However, they also suffer from serious drawbacks such as, their low efficiency, reliability and repetition rate, and also their short life span. Being bulky, heavy and expensive are the other disadvantages associated with these devices. Recently developed solid-state switching technology is an appropriate substitution for these switching devices due to the benefits they bring to the pulse supplies. Besides being compact, efficient, reasonable and reliable, and having a long life span, their high frequency switching skill allows repetitive operation of pulsed power supply. The main concerns in using solid-state transistors are the voltage rating and the rising time of available switches that, in some cases, cannot satisfy the application’s requirements. However, there are several power electronics configurations and techniques that make solid-state utilisation feasible for high voltage pulse generation. Therefore, the design and development of novel methods and topologies with higher efficiency and flexibility for pulsed power generators have been considered as the main scope of this research work. This aim is pursued through several innovative proposals that can be classified under the following two principal objectives. • To innovate and develop novel solid-state based topologies for pulsed power generation • To improve available technologies that have the potential to accommodate solid-state technology by revising, reconfiguring and adjusting their structure and control algorithms. The quest to distinguish novel topologies for a proper pulsed power production was begun with a deep and through review of conventional pulse generators and useful power electronics topologies. As a result of this study, it appears that efficiency and flexibility are the most significant demands of plasma applications that have not been met by state-of-the-art methods. Many solid-state based configurations were considered and simulated in order to evaluate their potential to be utilised in the pulsed power area. Parts of this literature review are documented in Chapter 1 of this thesis. Current source topologies demonstrate valuable advantages in supplying the loads with capacitive characteristics such as plasma applications. To investigate the influence of switching transients associated with solid-state devices on rise time of pulses, simulation based studies have been undertaken. A variable current source is considered to pump different current levels to a capacitive load, and it was evident that dissimilar dv/dts are produced at the output. Thereby, transient effects on pulse rising time are denied regarding the evidence acquired from this examination. A detailed report of this study is given in Chapter 6 of this thesis. This study inspired the design of a solid-state based topology that take advantage of both current and voltage sources. A series of switch-resistor-capacitor units at the output splits the produced voltage to lower levels, so it can be shared by the switches. A smart but complicated switching strategy is also designed to discharge the residual energy after each supply cycle. To prevent reverse power flow and to reduce the complexity of the control algorithm in this system, the resistors in common paths of units are substituted with diode rectifiers (switch-diode-capacitor). This modification not only gives the feasibility of stopping the load supply process to the supplier at any stage (and consequently saving energy), but also enables the converter to operate in a two-stroke mode with asymmetrical capacitors. The components’ determination and exchanging energy calculations are accomplished with respect to application specifications and demands. Both topologies were simply modelled and simulation studies have been carried out with the simplified models. Experimental assessments were also executed on implemented hardware and the approaches verified the initial analysis. Reports on details of both converters are thoroughly discussed in Chapters 2 and 3 of the thesis. Conventional MGs have been recently modified to use solid-state transistors (i.e. Insulated gate bipolar transistors) instead of magnetic/gas switching devices. Resistive insulators previously used in their structures are substituted by diode rectifiers to adjust MGs for a proper voltage sharing. However, despite utilizing solid-state technology in MGs configurations, further design and control amendments can still be made to achieve an improved performance with fewer components. Considering a number of charging techniques, resonant phenomenon is adopted in a proposal to charge the capacitors. In addition to charging the capacitors at twice the input voltage, triggering switches at the moment at which the conducted current through switches is zero significantly reduces the switching losses. Another configuration is also introduced in this research for Marx topology based on commutation circuits that use a current source to charge the capacitors. According to this design, diode-capacitor units, each including two Marx stages, are connected in cascade through solid-state devices and aggregate the voltages across the capacitors to produce a high voltage pulse. The polarity of voltage across one capacitor in each unit is reversed in an intermediate mode by connecting the commutation circuit to the capacitor. The insulation of input side from load side is provided in this topology by disconnecting the load from the current source during the supply process. Furthermore, the number of required fast switching devices in both designs is reduced to half of the number used in a conventional MG; they are replaced with slower switches (such as Thyristors) that need simpler driving modules. In addition, the contributing switches in discharging paths are decreased to half; this decrease leads to a reduction in conduction losses. Associated models are simulated, and hardware tests are performed to verify the validity of proposed topologies. Chapters 4, 5 and 7 of the thesis present all relevant analysis and approaches according to these topologies.

Mathematical modelling of tumour-induced angiogenesis

The growth of solid tumours beyond a critical size is dependent upon angiogenesis, the formation of new blood vessels from an existing vasculature. Tumours may remain dormant at microscopic sizes for some years before switching to a mode in which growth of a supportive vasculature is initiated. The new blood vessels supply nutrients, oxygen, and access to routes by which tumour cells may travel to other sites within the host (metastasize). In recent decades an abundance of biological research has focused on tumour-induced angiogenesis in the hope that treatments targeted at the vasculature may result in a stabilisation or regression of the disease: a tantalizing prospect. The complex and fascinating process of angiogenesis has also attracted the interest of researchers in the field of mathematical biology, a discipline that is, for mathematics, relatively new. The challenge in mathematical biology is to produce a model that captures the essential elements and critical dependencies of a biological system. Such a model may ultimately be used as a predictive tool. In this thesis we examine a number of aspects of tumour-induced angiogenesis, focusing on growth of the neovasculature external to the tumour. Firstly we present a one-dimensional continuum model of tumour-induced angiogenesis in which elements of the immune system or other tumour-cytotoxins are delivered via the newly formed vessels. This model, based on observations from experiments by Judah Folkman et al., is able to show regression of the tumour for some parameter regimes. The modelling highlights a number of interesting aspects of the process that may be characterised further in the laboratory. The next model we present examines the initiation positions of blood vessel sprouts on an existing vessel, in a two-dimensional domain. This model hypothesises that a simple feedback inhibition mechanism may be used to describe the spacing of these sprouts with the inhibitor being produced by breakdown of the existing vessel's basement membrane. Finally, we have developed a stochastic model of blood vessel growth and anastomosis in three dimensions. The model has been implemented in C++, includes an openGL interface, and uses a novel algorithm for calculating proximity of the line segments representing a growing vessel. This choice of programming language and graphics interface allows for near-simultaneous calculation and visualisation of blood vessel networks using a contemporary personal computer. In addition the visualised results may be transformed interactively, and drop-down menus facilitate changes in the parameter values. Visualisation of results is of vital importance in the communication of mathematical information to a wide audience, and we aim to incorporate this philosophy in the thesis. As biological research further uncovers the intriguing processes involved in tumourinduced angiogenesis, we conclude with a comment from mathematical biologist Jim Murray, Mathematical biology is : : : the most exciting modern application of mathematics.

Reducing Actuator Switchings for Motion Control of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles

A priority when designing control strategies for autonomous underwater vehicles is to emphasize their cost of implementation on a real vehicle. Indeed, due to the vehicles' design and the actuation modes usually under consideration for underwater plateforms the number of actuator switchings must be kept to a small value to insure feasibility and precision. This is the main objective of the algorithm presented in this paper. The theory is illustrated on two examples, one is a fully actuated underwater vehicle capable of motion in six-degrees-of freedom and one is minimally actuated with control motions in the vertical plane only.

A novel CDVM based high-voltage converter using low power solid-state switches and a tuned resonant circuit designed for pulsed power applications

A novel concept of producing high dc voltage for pulsed-power applications is proposed in this paper. The topology consists of an LC resonant circuit supplied through a tuned alternating waveform that is produced by an inverter. The control scheme is based on the detection of variations in the resonant frequency and adjustment of the switching signal patterns for the inverter to produce a square waveform with exactly the same frequencies. Therefore the capacitor voltage oscillates divergently with an increasing amplitude. A simple one-stage capacitor-diode voltage multiplier (CDVM) connected to the resonant capacitor then rectifies the alternating voltage and gives a dc level equal to twice the input voltage amplitude. The produced high voltage appears then in the form of high-voltage pulses across the load. A basic model is simulated by Simulink platform of MATLAB and the results are included in the paper.

'Nothing exists for one cause' : putting biology back into evolution

The opening phrase of the title is from Charles Darwin’s notebooks (Schweber 1977). It is a double reminder, firstly that mainstream evolutionary theory is not just about describing nature but is particularly looking for mechanisms or ‘causes’, and secondly, that there will usually be several causes affecting any particular outcome. The second part of the title is our concern at the almost universal rejection of the idea that biological mechanisms are sufficient for macroevolutionary changes, thus rejecting a cornerstone of Darwinian evolutionary theory. Our primary aim here is to consider ways of making it easier to develop and to test hypotheses about evolution. Formalizing hypotheses can help generate tests. In an absolute sense, some of the discussion by scientists about evolution is little better than the lack of reasoning used by those advocating intelligent design. Our discussion here is in a Popperian framework where science is defined by that area of study where it is possible, in principle, to find evidence against hypotheses – they are in principle falsifiable. However, with time, the boundaries of science keep expanding. In the past, some aspects of evolution were outside the current boundaries of falsifiable science, but increasingly new techniques and ideas are expanding the boundaries of science and it is appropriate to re-examine some topics. It often appears that over the last few decades there has been an increasingly strong assumption to look first (and only) for a physical cause. This decision is virtually never formally discussed, just an assumption is made that some physical factor ‘drives’ evolution. It is necessary to examine our assumptions much more carefully. What is meant by physical factors ‘driving’ evolution, or what is an ‘explosive radiation’. Our discussion focuses on two of the six mass extinctions, the fifth being events in the Late Cretaceous, and the sixth starting at least 50,000 years ago (and is ongoing). Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; the rise of birds and mammals. We have had a long-term interest (Cooper and Penny 1997) in designing tests to help evaluate whether the processes of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution. The real challenge is to formulate hypotheses in a testable way. For example the numbers of lineages of birds and mammals that survive from the Cretaceous to the present is one test. Our first estimate was 22 for birds, and current work is tending to increase this value. This still does not consider lineages that survived into the Tertiary, and then went extinct later. Our initial suggestion was probably too narrow in that it lumped four models from Penny and Phillips (2004) into one model. This reduction is too simplistic in that we need to know about survival and ecological and morphological divergences during the Late Cretaceous, and whether Crown groups of avian or mammalian orders may have existed back into the Cretaceous. More recently (Penny and Phillips 2004) we have formalized hypotheses about dinosaurs and pterosaurs, with the prediction that interactions between mammals (and groundfeeding birds) and dinosaurs would be most likely to affect the smallest dinosaurs, and similarly interactions between birds and pterosaurs would particularly affect the smaller pterosaurs. There is now evidence for both classes of interactions, with the smallest dinosaurs and pterosaurs declining first, as predicted. Thus, testable models are now possible. Mass extinction number six: human impacts. On a broad scale, there is a good correlation between time of human arrival, and increased extinctions (Hurles et al. 2003; Martin 2005; Figure 1). However, it is necessary to distinguish different time scales (Penny 2005) and on a finer scale there are still large numbers of possibilities. In Hurles et al. (2003) we mentioned habitat modification (including the use of Geogenes III July 2006 31 fire), introduced plants and animals (including kiore) in addition to direct predation (the ‘overkill’ hypothesis). We need also to consider prey switching that occurs in early human societies, as evidenced by the results of Wragg (1995) on the middens of different ages on Henderson Island in the Pitcairn group. In addition, the presence of human-wary or humanadapted animals will affect the distribution in the subfossil record. A better understanding of human impacts world-wide, in conjunction with pre-scientific knowledge will make it easier to discuss the issues by removing ‘blame’. While continued spontaneous generation was accepted universally, there was the expectation that animals continued to reappear. New Zealand is one of the very best locations in the world to study many of these issues. Apart from the marine fossil record, some human impact events are extremely recent and the remains less disrupted by time.

A spatial collision avoidance strategy for UAVs in a non-cooperative environment

This paper presents a feasible spatial collision avoidance approach for fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The proposed strategy aims to achieve the desired relative bearing in the horizontal plane and relative elevation in the vertical plane so that the host aircraft is able to avoid collision with the intruder aircraft in 3D. The host aircraft will follow a desired trajectory in the collision avoidance course and resume the pre-arranged trajectory after collision is avoided. The approaching stopping condition is determined for the host aircraft to trigger an evasion maneuver to avoid collision in terms of measured heading. A switching controller is designed to achieve the spatial collision avoidance strategy. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively avoid spatial collision, making it suitable for integration into flight control systems of UAVs.