Effective emergency messaging during natural disasters: An application of message compliance theories

Study/Objective This research examines the types of emergency messages used in Australia during the response and early recovery phases of a natural disaster. The aim of the research is to develop theory-driven emergency messages that increase individual behavioural compliance during a disaster. Background There is growing evidence of non-compliant behaviour in Australia, such as refusing to evacuate and travelling through hazardous areas. This can result in personal injury, loss of life, and damage to (or loss of) property. Moreover, non-compliance can place emergency services personnel in life-threatening situations when trying to save non-compliant individuals. Drawing on message compliance research in psychology and sociology, a taxonomy of message types was developed to ascertain how emergency messaging can be improved to produce compliant behaviour. Method A review of message compliance literature was conducted to develop the taxonomy of message types previously found to achieve compliance. Seven categories were identified: direct-rational, manipulation, negative phrasing, positive phrasing, exchange appeals, normative appeals, and appeals to self. A content analysis was then conducted to assess the emergency messages evident in the Australian emergency management context. The existing messages were aligned with the literature to identify opportunities to improve emergency messaging. Results & Conclusion The results suggest there is an opportunity to improve the effectiveness of emergency messaging to increase compliance during the response and early recovery phases of a natural disaster. While some message types cannot legally or ethically be used in emergency communication (e.g. manipulative messaging), there is an opportunity to create more persuasive messages (e.g. appeals to self) that personalise the individual’s perception of risk, triggering them to comply with the message.

Circulating tumour cells in metastatic head and neck cancers

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is the sixth most common cancer with 650,000 new cases p/a worldwide. HNSCC causes high morbidity with a 5-year survival rate of less than 60%, which has not improved due to the lack of early detection (Bozec et al. Eur Arch Otorhinolaryngol. 2013;270: 2745–9). Metastatic disease remains one of the leading causes of death in HNSCC patients. This review article provides a comprehensive overview of literature over the past 5 years on the detection of circulating tumour cells (CTCs) in HNSCC; CTC biology and future perspectives. CTCs are a hallmark of invasive cancer cells and key to metastasis. CTCs can be used as surrogate markers of overall survival and progression-free survival. CTCs are currently used as prognostic factors for breast, prostate and colorectal cancers using the CellSearch® system. CTCs have been detected in HNSCC, however, these numbers depend on the technique applied, time of blood collection and the clinical stage of the patient. The impact of CTCs in HNSCC is not well understood, and thus, not in routine clinical practice. Validated detection technologies that are able to capture CTCs undergoing epithelial–mesenchymal transition are needed. This will aid in the capture of heterogeneous CTCs, which can be compiled as new targets for the current food and drug administration-cleared CellSearch® system. Recent studies on CTCs in HNSCC with the CellSearch® have shown variable data. Therefore, there is an immediate need for large clinical trials encompassing a suite of biomarkers capturing CTCs in HNSCC, before CTCs can be used as prognostic markers in HNSCC patient management.

Effects of temperature and salinity on growth performance in cultured Tra catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) in Vietnam

This project is a step towards assessing the effects of climate change on the tra catfish industry in Vietnam. The methods were designed to evaluate possible effects of salinity and temperature increase and their interaction on fish physiological parameters, growth performance, survival and the expression of stress related genes. Results indicated that tra had higher overall performance at 35oC with 6ppt salinity and therefore should cope with moderate predicted outcomes of climate change for the region. The experiments were mostly conducted in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam - the centre of the tra catfish industry with the cooperation of Can Tho University – Can Tho City – Vietnam.

Building resilient communities: Creating effective multi-channel communication during disaster response and recovery

Our aim is to examine evidence-based strategies to motivate appropriate action and increase informed decision-making during the response and recovery phases of disasters. We combine expertise in communication, consumer psychology and marketing, disaster and emergency management, and law. This poster presents findings from a social media work package, and preliminary findings from the focus group work package on emergency warning message comprehension.

Surgical fusion of early onset severe scoliosis increases survival in the child with rett syndrome: A population based study

Introduction. Rett Syndrome is a rare genetic neurodevelopmental disorder usually affecting females. Scoliosis is a common comorbidity and spinal fusion may be recommended if severe. Little is known about long term outcomes. We examined the impact of spinal fusion on survival and risk of severe lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in Rett Syndrome. Methods Data were ascertained from hospital medical records, the Australian Rett Syndrome Database, a longitudinal and population-based registry of Rett Syndrome cases established in 1993, and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare National Death Index database. An extended Cox regression model was used to estimate the effect of spinal surgery on survival in females who developed severe scoliosis (Cobb angle > 45 degrees). Generalized estimating equation modelling was used to estimate the effect of spinal surgery on the odds of developing severe LRTI. Results Severe scoliosis was identified in 140 cases (60.3%) of whom slightly fewer than half (48.6%) developed scoliosis prior to eight years of age. Scoliosis surgery was performed in 98 (69.0%) of those at a median age of 13 years 3 months (IQR 11 years 5 months – 14 years 10 months). After adjusting for mutation type and age of scoliosis onset, the rate of death was lower in the surgery group (HR 0.30, 95% CI 0.12, 0.74, P = 0.009) compared to those without surgery. Rate of death was particularly reduced for those with early onset scoliosis (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06, 0.52, P = 0.002). Spinal fusion was not associated with reduction in the occurrence of a severe LRTI overall (OR 0.60, 95%CI 0.27, 1.33, P=0.206) but was associated with a large reduction in odds of severe LRTI among those with early onset scoliosis (OR 0.32, 95%CI 0.11, 0.93, P=0.036). Conclusion With appropriate cautions, spinal fusion confers an advantage to life expectancy in Rett syndrome.

Increased risk of emergency hospital admissions for children with renal diseases during heatwaves in Brisbane, Australia

Background Heatwaves have a significant impact on population health including both morbidity and mortality. In this study we examined the association between heatwaves and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) for renal diseases in children (aged 0–14 years) in Brisbane, Australia. Methods Daily data on EHAs for renal diseases in children and exposure to temperature and air pollution were obtained for Brisbane city from January 1, 1996 to December 31, 2005. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to compare the risks for renal diseases between heatwave and non-heatwave periods. Results There were 1565 EHAs for renal diseases in children during the study period. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on EHAs for renal diseases in children after adjusting for confounding factors (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.4–9.5). The risk estimates differed with lags and the use of different heatwave definitions. Conclusions There was a significant increase in EHAs for renal diseases in children during heatwaves in Brisbane, a subtropical city where people are well accustomed to warm weather. This finding may have significant implications for pediatric renal care, particularly in subtropical and tropical regions.

Mating compatibility between bactrocera invadens and bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The invasive fruit fly, Bactrocera invadens Drew, Tsuruta & White, is a highly polyphagous fruit pest that occurs predominantly in Africa yet has its origins in the Indian subcontinent. It is extremely morphologically and genetically similar to the Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel); as such the specific relationship between these two species is unresolved. We assessed prezygotic compatibility between B. dorsalis and B. invadens using standardized field cage mating tests, which have proven effectiveness in tephritid cryptic species studies. These tests were followed by an assessment of postzygotic compatibility by examining egg viability, larval and pupal survival, and sex ratios of offspring produced from parental and subsequent F1 crosses to examine for hybrid breakdown as predicted under a two-species hypothesis. B. dorsalis was sourced from two countries (Pakistan and China), and each population was compared with B. invadens from its type locality of Kenya. B. invadens mated randomly with B. dorsalis from both localities, and there were generally high levels of hybrid viability and survival resulting from parental and F1 crosses. Furthermore, all but one hybrid cross resulted in equal sex ratios, with the single deviation in favor of males and contrary to expectations under Haldane's rule. These data support the hypothesis that B. dorsalis and B. invadens represent the same biological species, an outcome that poses significant implications for pest management and international trade for sub-Saharan Africa.

Doctor’s knowledge and practices of traumatic brain injury management in Chinese prehospital settings

Objectives: The incidence and mortality of traumatic brain injury (TBI) has increased rapidly in the last decade in China. Appropriate ambulance service can reduce case-fatality rates of TBI significantly. This study aimed to explore the factors (age, gender, education level, clinical experience, professional title, organization, specialty before prehospital care, and training frequency) that could influence prehospital doctors’ knowledge level and practices in TBI management in China, Hubei Province. Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in two cities in Hubei Province. The self-administered questionnaire consisted of demographic information and questions about prehospital TBI management. Independent samples t-test and one-way ANOVA were used to analyze group differences in the average scores in terms of demographic character. General linear regression was used to explore associated factors in prehospital TBI management. Results: A total of 56 questionnaires were handed out and 52 (93%) were returned. Participants received the lowest scores in TBI treatment (0.64; SD=0.08) and the highest scores in TBI assessment (0.80; SD=0.14). According to the regression model, the education level was associated positively with the score of TBI identification (P=.019); participants who worked in the emergency department (ED; P=.011) or formerly practiced internal medicine (P=.009) tended to get lower scores in TBI assessment; participants’ scores in TBI treatment were associated positively with the training frequency (P=.011); and no statistically significant associated factor was found in the overall TBI management. Conclusion: This study described the current situation of prehospital TBI management. The prehospital doctors’ knowledge level and practices in TBI management were quantified and the influential factors hidden underneath were explored. The results indicated that an appropriate continuing medical education (CME) program enables improvement of the quality of ambulance service in China.

The v-MFG test: Investigating maternal, offspring and maternal-fetal genetic incompatibility effects on disease and viability

The MFG test is a family-based association test that detects genetic effects contributing to disease in offspring, including offspring allelic effects, maternal allelic effects and MFG incompatibility effects. Like many other family-based association tests, it assumes that the offspring survival and the offspring-parent genotypes are conditionally independent provided the offspring is affected. However, when the putative disease-increasing locus can affect another competing phenotype, for example, offspring viability, the conditional independence assumption fails and these tests could lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the role of the gene in disease. We propose the v-MFG test to adjust for the genetic effects on one phenotype, e.g., viability, when testing the effects of that locus on another phenotype, e.g., disease. Using genotype data from nuclear families containing parents and at least one affected offspring, the v-MFG test models the distribution of family genotypes conditional on offspring phenotypes. It simultaneously estimates genetic effects on two phenotypes, viability and disease. Simulations show that the v-MFG test produces accurate genetic effect estimates on disease as well as on viability under several different scenarios. It generates accurate type-I error rates and provides adequate power with moderate sample sizes to detect genetic effects on disease risk when viability is reduced. We demonstrate the v-MFG test with HLA-DRB1 data from study participants with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and their parents, we show that the v-MFG test successfully detects an MFG incompatibility effect on RA while simultaneously adjusting for a possible viability loss.

Targeting Antiapoptotic Genes Upregulated by Androgen Withdrawal Using Antisense Oligodeoxynucleotides to Enhance Androgen-and Chemo-Sensitivity in Prostate Cancer

Androgen withdrawal is the only effective form of systemic therapy for men with advanced disease, producing symptomatic and/or objective response in 80% of patients. Unfortunately, androgen independent (AI) progression and death occurs within a few years in the majority of these cases (6). Prostate cancer is highly chemoresistant, with objective response rates of 10% and no demonstrated survival benefit (28). Hormone refractory prostate cancer (HRPC) is therefore the main obstacle to improving the survival and quality of life in patients with advanced disease, and novel therapeutic strategies that target the molecular basis of androgen and chemoresistance are required.

Aggressive surgical interventions for severe stroke: Impact on quality of life, caregiver burden and family outcomes

Introduction: Decompressive hemicraniectomy, clot evacuation, and aneurysmal interventions are considered aggressive surgical therapeutic options for treatment of massive cerebral artery infarction (MCA), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and severe subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) respectively. Although these procedures are saving lives, little is actually known about the impact on outcomes other than short-term survival and functional status. The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of personal and social consequences of surviving these aggressive surgical interventions in order to aid acute care clinicians in helping family members make difficult decisions about undertaking such interventions. Methods: An exploratory mixed method study using a convergent parallel design was conducted to examine functional recovery (NIHSS, mRS & BI), cognitive status (Montreal Cognitive Assessment Scale, MoCA), quality of life (Euroqol 5-D), and caregiver outcomes (Bakas Caregiver Outcome Scale, BCOS) in a cohort of patients and families who had undergone aggressive surgical intervention for severe stroke between the years 2000–2007. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, univariate and multivariate analysis of variance, and multivariate logistic regression. Content analysis was used to analyze the qualitative interviews conducted with stroke survivors and family members. Results: Twenty-seven patients and 13 spouses participated in this study. Based on patient MOCA scores, overall cognitive status was 25.18 (range 23.4-26.9); current functional outcomes scores: NIHSS 2.22, mRS 1.74, and BI 88.5. EQ-5D scores revealed no significant differences between patients and caregivers (p=0.585) and caregiver outcomes revealed no significant differences between male/female caregivers or patient diagnostic group (MCA, SAH, ICH; p=""0.103).<"/span><"/span> Discussion: Overall, patients and families were satisfied with quality of life and decisions made at the time of the initial stroke. There was consensus among study participants that formal community-based support (e.g., handibus, caregiving relief, rehabilitation assessments) should be continued for extended periods (e.g., years) post-stroke. Ongoing contact with health care professionals is valuable to help them navigate in the community as needs change over time.

Measuring the effects of mergers and acquisitions on the economic performance of real estate developers

Real estate developers in China are using mergers and acquisitions (M&As) to ensure their survival and competitiveness. However, no suitable method is yet available to assess whether such M&As provide enhanced value for those involved. Using a hybrid method of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Malmquist total factor productivity (TFP) indices, this paper evaluates the short and medium term effects of M&As on acquirers’ economic performance with a set of 32 M&A cases occurring during 2000–2011 in China. The results of the analysis show that M&As generally have a positive effect on acquirers’ economic performance. Acquisitions on average experienced a steady growth in developer Malmquist TFP, a more progressive adoption of technology immediately after acquisition, a slight short-term decrease in technical efficiency after acquisition but followed by a marked increase in the longer term once the integration and synergy benefits were realised. However, there is no evidence to show whether developers achieved any short or long term scale efficiency improvements after M&A. The findings of this study provide useful insights on developer M&A performance from an efficiency and productivity perspective.

Surgical fusion of early onset severe scoliosis increases survival in Rett syndrome: A cohort study

Aim Scoliosis is a common co-morbidity in Rett syndrome and spinal fusion may be recommended if severe. We investigated the impact of spinal fusion on survival and risk of severe lower respiratory tract infection in Rett syndrome. Method Data were ascertained from hospital medical records, the Australian Rett Syndrome Database, a longitudinal and population-based registry, and from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare National Death Index database. Cox regression and generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate the effects of spinal surgery on survival and severe respiratory infection respectively in 140 females who developed severe scoliosis (Cobb angle ≥45°) before adulthood. Results After adjusting for mutation type and age of scoliosis onset, the rate of death was lower in the surgery group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.12–0.74; p=0.009) compared to those without surgery. Rate of death was particularly reduced for those with early onset scoliosis (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06–0.52; p=0.002). There was some evidence to suggest that spinal fusion was associated with a reduction in risk of severe respiratory infection among those with early onset scoliosis (risk ratio 0.41, 95% CI 0.16–1.03; p=0.06). Interpretation With appropriate cautions, spinal fusion confers an advantage to life expectancy in Rett syndrome.

Dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia: Systematic reviews and economic analyses

- Background Nilotinib and dasatinib are now being considered as alternative treatments to imatinib as a first-line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). - Objective This technology assessment reviews the available evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first-line treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive CML. - Data sources Databases [including MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, Current Controlled Trials, ClinicalTrials.gov, the US Food and Drug Administration website and the European Medicines Agency website] were searched from search end date of the last technology appraisal report on this topic in October 2002 to September 2011. - Review methods A systematic review of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies; a review of surrogate relationships with survival; a review and critique of manufacturer submissions; and a model-based economic analysis. - Results Two clinical trials (dasatinib vs imatinib and nilotinib vs imatinib) were included in the effectiveness review. Survival was not significantly different for dasatinib or nilotinib compared with imatinib with the 24-month follow-up data available. The rates of complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) were higher for patients receiving dasatinib than for those with imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 83% vs 72%, p < 0.001; MMR 46% vs 28%, p < 0.0001). The rates of CCyR and MMR were higher for patients receiving nilotinib than for those receiving imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 80% vs 65%, p < 0.001; MMR 44% vs 22%, p < 0.0001). An indirect comparison analysis showed no difference between dasatinib and nilotinib for CCyR or MMR rates for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR, odds ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.92; MMR, odds ratio 1.28, 95% CI 0.77 to 2.16). There is observational association evidence from imatinib studies supporting the use of CCyR and MMR at 12 months as surrogates for overall all-cause survival and progression-free survival in patients with CML in chronic phase. In the cost-effectiveness modelling scenario, analyses were provided to reflect the extensive structural uncertainty and different approaches to estimating OS. First-line dasatinib is predicted to provide very poor value for money compared with first-line imatinib, with deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of between £256,000 and £450,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Conversely, first-line nilotinib provided favourable ICERs at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY. - Limitations Immaturity of empirical trial data relative to life expectancy, forcing either reliance on surrogate relationships or cumulative survival/treatment duration assumptions. - Conclusions From the two trials available, dasatinib and nilotinib have a statistically significant advantage compared with imatinib as measured by MMR or CCyR. Taking into account the treatment pathways for patients with CML, i.e. assuming the use of second-line nilotinib, first-line nilotinib appears to be more cost-effective than first-line imatinib. Dasatinib was not cost-effective if decision thresholds of £20,000 per QALY or £30,000 per QALY were used, compared with imatinib and nilotinib. Uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness analysis would be substantially reduced with better and more UK-specific data on the incidence and cost of stem cell transplantation in patients with chronic CML. - Funding The Health Technology Assessment Programme of the National Institute for Health Research.

An autecological interpretation of the firm and its environment

Explaining the survival and failure of firms is an important issue for researchers and managers of firms in society. Ecological approaches to the study of firms have existed for over 100 years, and have been increasingly popular during the past 40 years, especially since the pioneering works of Hannan and Freeman on one hand, and Aldrich on the other. This paper, in keeping with recent developments elsewhere in mainstream ecology outlines and positions the theoretical and philosophical foundations of an alternative ecological approach, autecology, that has not yet been formulated for the study of firms. The autecological approach affords the individual firm more autonomy in creating its own future evolutionary trajectory. The idea of an ecological complex is developed to provide clear focus on what is central to the application of autecology to the study of firms. The paper also considers several emergent research opportunities that highlight the potential value of employing an autecological approach to the study of firms.