Incorporating interdependence in risk likelihood analysis to enhance diagnostics in condition monitoring

This research is aimed at addressing problems in the field of asset management relating to risk analysis and decision making based on data from a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system. It is apparent that determining risk likelihood in risk analysis is difficult, especially when historical information is unreliable. This relates to a problem in SCADA data analysis because of nested data. A further problem is in providing beneficial information from a SCADA system to a managerial level information system (e.g. Enterprise Resource Planning/ERP). A Hierarchical Model is developed to address the problems. The model is composed of three different Analyses: Hierarchical Analysis, Failure Mode and Effect Analysis, and Interdependence Analysis. The significant contributions from the model include: (a) a new risk analysis model, namely an Interdependence Risk Analysis Model which does not rely on the existence of historical information because it utilises Interdependence Relationships to determine the risk likelihood, (b) improvement of the SCADA data analysis problem by addressing the nested data problem through the Hierarchical Analysis, and (c) presentation of a framework to provide beneficial information from SCADA systems to ERP systems. The case study of a Water Treatment Plant is utilised for model validation.

Early detection : a strategy to reduce risk and severity?

Despite changes in surgical techniques, radiotherapy targeting and the apparent earlier detection of cancers, secondary lymphoedema is still a significant problem for about 20–30% of those who receive treatment for cancer, although the incidence and prevalence does seem to be falling. The figures above generally relate to detection of an enlarged limb or other area, but it seems that about 60% of all patients also suffer other problems with how the limb feels, what can or cannot be done with it and a range of social or psychological issues. Often these ‘subjective’ changes occur before the objective ones, such as a change in arm volume or circumference. For most of those treated for cancer lymphoedema does not develop immediately, and, while about 60–70% develop it in the first few years, some do not develop lymphoedema for up to 15 or 20 years. Those who will develop clinically manifest lymphoedema in the future are, for some time, in a latent or hidden phase of lymphoedema. There also seems to be some risk factors which are indicators for a higher likelihood of lymphoedema post treatment, including oedema at the surgical site, arm dominance, age, skin conditions, and body mass index (BMI).

Transaction Cost Analysis of PPP Risk Share

PPP (Public Private Partnerships) is a new operation mode of infrastructure projects, which usually undergo long periods and have various kinds of risks in technology, market, politics, policy, finance, society, natural conditions and cooperation. So the government and the private agency should establish the risk-sharing mechanism to ensure the successful implementation of the project. As an important branch of the new institutional economics, transaction cost economics and its analysis method have been proved to be beneficial to the proper allocation of risks between the two parts in PPP projects and the improvement of operation efficiency of PPP risk-sharing mechanism. This paper analyzed the transaction cost of the projects risk-sharing method and the both risk carriers. It pointed out that the risk-sharing method of PPP projects not only reflected the spirit of cooperation between public sector and private agency, but also minimized the total transaction cost of the risk sharing mechanism itself. Meanwhile, the risk takers had to strike a balance between the beforehand cost and the afterwards cost so as to control the cost of risk management. The paper finally suggested three ways which might be useful to reduce the transaction cost: to choose appropriate type of contract of PPP risk-sharing mechanism, to prevent information asymmetry and to establish mutual trust between the two participants.

Illegal pedestrian crossing at signalised intersections : Incidence and relative risk

Illegal pedestrian behaviour is common and is reported as a factor in many pedestrian crashes. Since walking is being promoted for its health and environmental benefits, minimisation of its associated risks is of interest. The risk associated with illegal road crossing is unclear, and better information would assist in setting a rationale for enforcement and priorities for public education. An observation survey of pedestrian behaviour was conducted at signalised intersections in the Brisbane CBD (Queensland, Australia) on typical workdays, using behavioural categories that were identifiable in police crash reports. The survey confirmed high levels of crossing against the lights, or close enough to the lights that they should legally have been used. Measures of exposure for crossing legally, against the lights, and close to the lights were generated by weighting the observation data. Relative risk ratios were calculated for these categories using crash data from the observation sites and adjacent midblocks. Crossing against the lights and crossing close to the lights both exhibited a crash risk per crossing event approximately eight times that of legal crossing at signalised intersections. The implications of these results for enforcement and education are discussed, along with the limitations of the study.

In-vehicle driver distractions : characteristics underlying drivers' risk perceptions

Driver distraction continues to receive considerable research interest but the drivers‟ perspective is less well documented. The current research focussed on identifying features that are salient to drivers in their risk perception judgements for 19 in-vehicle distractions. Both technological (e.g. mobile phones) and non technological (e.g. eating) distractions were considered. Analysis identified that males and females were rating 7 of the 19 distractions differently. The current paper presents the data for the female participants (n = 84). Multidimensional scaling analysis identified three main dimensions contributing to female drivers‟ risk perception judgements. Qualitative characteristics such as the level of exposure to a distraction were identified as significant contributors to drivers‟ risk perception as well as features inherent in the distractions such as distractions being related to communication. This exploratory work contributes to better understanding female drivers‟ perceptions of risk associated with in-vehicle distractions. Understanding the drivers‟ perspective can help guide the development of road safety messages and ultimately improve the impact of such messages.

Changing motorcycle rider safety attitudes and motives for risk taking : process evaluation of a rider training intervention

Risk-taking behaviour by motorcyclists has been shown to contribute to a substantial proportion of road crashes in Australia and abroad. Concern has been expressed that traditional motorcycle licence training programs do not sufficiently address such behaviour. Accordingly, the Three Steps to Safer Riding program was developed to address risk taking behaviour by riders as an adjunct to existing skills-based rider training. The program was designed to be delivered in a one hour classroom session at the start of training, with a 20 minute debrief to revise the key concepts at the end of training. This paper reports on the key training concepts, methodology and implementation of the pilot program with a major rider training organisation in Queensland and presents findings from a process evaluation. The Three Steps to Safer Riding intervention pilot was delivered to 518 learner riders over a three month period. Follow-up focus groups and one interview with intervention participants (N=18) five to eight months after completion of the program suggest that new riders (absolute novices) embraced and internalised many of the intervention concepts. However, some riders who had previous riding experience prior to training stated these issues were common sense, yet still expressed riding styles that were contrary to some of the key intervention messages. This is discussed in terms of raising awareness of risk issues for motorcyclists versus behaviour change. Additionally, interviews conducted with riding instructors are discussed regarding logistical challenges of implementation, training consistency, skills required to deliver the program, support for the program, and student engagement.

Can Risk Management boost the supply of Affordable Housing Development and Management?

A shortage of affordable housing is a major problem in Australia today. This is mainly due to the limited supply of affordable housing that is provided by the non-government housing sector. Some private housing developers see the provision of affordable housing for lower income people as a high risk investment which offers a lower return than broader market-based housing. The scarcity of suitable land, a limited government ‘subsidy’, and increasing housing costs have not provided sufficient development incentives to encourage their investment despite the existing high demand for affordable housing. This study analyses the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit housing providers in South East Queensland, and draws conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences. In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment/response in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. These developers use an informal risk management process as part of their normal business process in accordance with industry standards. A simple qualitative matrix has been used to analyse probability and impacts using a qualitative scale - low, medium and high. For housing providers who have considered investing in affordable housing but have not yet implemented any such projects, affordable housing development is seen as an opportunity that needs to be approached with caution. The risks associated with such projects and the levels of acceptance of these are not consistently identified by current housing providers. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. This study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.

Risk-assessment practices in the private rental sector : implications for low-income renters (Final Report)

This report focuses on risk-assessment practices in the private rental market, with particular consideration of their impact on low-income renters. It is based on the fieldwork undertaken in the second stage of the research process that followed completion of the Positioning Paper. The key research question this study addressed was: What are the various factors included in ‘risk-assessments’ by real estate agents in allocating ‘affordable’ tenancies? How are these risks quantified and managed? What are the key outcomes of their decision-making? The study builds on previous research demonstrating that a relatively large proportion of low-cost private rental accommodation is occupied by moderate- to high-income households (Wulff and Yates 2001; Seelig 2001; Yates et al. 2004). This is occurring in an environment where the private rental sector is now the de facto main provider of rental housing for lower-income households across Australia (Seelig et al. 2005) and where a number of factors are implicated in patterns of ‘income–rent mismatching’. These include ongoing shifts in public housing assistance; issues concerning eligibility for rent assistance; ‘supply’ factors, such as loss of low-cost rental stock through upgrading and/or transfer to owner-occupied housing; patterns of supply and demand driven largely by middle- to high-income owner-investors and renters; and patterns of housing need among low-income households for whom affordable housing is not appropriate. In formulating a way of approaching the analysis of ‘risk-assessment’ in rental housing management, this study has applied three sociological perspectives on risk: Beck’s (1992) formulation of risk society as entailing processes of ‘individualisation’; a socio-cultural perspective which emphasises the situated nature of perceptions of risk; and a perspective which has drawn attention to different modes of institutional governance of subjects, as ‘carriers of specific indicators of risk’. The private rental market was viewed as a social institution, and the research strategy was informed by ‘institutional ethnography’ as a method of enquiry. The study was based on interviews with property managers, real estate industry representatives, tenant advocates and community housing providers. The primary focus of inquiry was on ‘the moment of allocation’. Six local areas across metropolitan and regional Queensland, New South Wales, and South Australia were selected as case study localities. In terms of the main findings, it is evident that access to private rental housing is not just a matter of ‘supply and demand’. It is also about assessment of risk among applicants. Risk – perceived or actual – is thus a critical factor in deciding who gets housed, and how. Risk and its assessment matter in the context of housing provision and in the development of policy responses. The outcomes from this study also highlight a number of salient points: 1.There are two principal forms of risk associated with property management: financial risk and risk of litigation. 2. Certain tenant characteristics and/or circumstances – ability to pay and ability to care for the rented property – are the main factors focused on in assessing risk among applicants for rental housing. Signals of either ‘(in)ability to pay’ and/or ‘(in)ability to care for the property’ are almost always interpreted as markers of high levels of risk. 3. The processing of tenancy applications entails a complex and variable mix of formal and informal strategies of risk-assessment and allocation where sorting (out), ranking, discriminating and handing over characterise the process. 4. In the eyes of property managers, ‘suitable’ tenants can be conceptualised as those who are resourceful, reputable, competent, strategic and presentable. 5. Property managers clearly articulated concern about risks entailed in a number of characteristics or situations. Being on a low income was the principal and overarching factor which agents considered. Others included: - unemployment - ‘big’ families; sole parent families - domestic violence - marital breakdown - shift from home ownership to private rental - Aboriginality and specific ethnicities - physical incapacity - aspects of ‘presentation’. The financial vulnerability of applicants in these groups can be invoked, alongside expressed concerns about compromised capacities to manage income and/or ‘care for’ the property, as legitimate grounds for rejection or a lower ranking. 6. At the level of face-to-face interaction between the property manager and applicants, more intuitive assessments of risk based upon past experience or ‘gut feelings’ come into play. These judgements are interwoven with more systematic procedures of tenant selection. The findings suggest that considerable ‘risk’ is associated with low-income status, either directly or insofar as it is associated with other forms of perceived risk, and that such risks are likely to impede access to the professionally managed private rental market. Detailed analysis suggests that opportunities for access to housing by low-income householders also arise where, for example: - the ‘local experience’ of an agency and/or property manager works in favour of particular applicants - applicants can demonstrate available social support and financial guarantors - an applicant’s preference or need for longer-term rental is seen to provide a level of financial security for the landlord - applicants are prepared to agree to specific, more stringent conditions for inspection of properties and review of contracts - the particular circumstances and motivations of landlords lead them to consider a wider range of applicants - In particular circumstances, property managers are prepared to give special consideration to applicants who appear worthy, albeit ‘risky’. The strategic actions of demonstrating and documenting on the part of vulnerable (low-income) tenant applicants can improve their chances of being perceived as resourceful, capable and ‘savvy’. Such actions are significant because they help to persuade property managers not only that the applicant may have sufficient resources (personal and material) but that they accept that the onus is on themselves to show they are reputable, and that they have valued ‘competencies’ and understand ‘how the system works’. The parameters of the market do shape the processes of risk-assessment and, ultimately, the strategic relation of power between property manager and the tenant applicant. Low vacancy rates and limited supply of lower-cost rental stock, in all areas, mean that there are many more tenant applicants than available properties, creating a highly competitive environment for applicants. The fundamental problem of supply is an aspect of the market that severely limits the chances of access to appropriate and affordable housing for low-income rental housing applicants. There is recognition of the impact of this problem of supply. The study indicates three main directions for future focus in policy and program development: providing appropriate supports to tenants to access and sustain private rental housing, addressing issues of discrimination and privacy arising in the processes of selecting suitable tenants, and addressing problems of supply.

Shaping the 'at-risk' youth : risk, governmentality and the Finn Report

The category of the `at-risk youth' currently underpins a good deal of youth policy, and in particular, education policy. Primarily, the category is centred around a range of programmes associated with the need for state intervention, intervention which largely occurs `at a distance' within domains such as the school and the family. While it is argued that in some ways, the `at-risk youth' simply replaces older characterisations used in the policing of the young, it will also be argued that the preventative policies associated with `risk' are constituted in terms of factors rather than individuals; that prevention is no longer primarily based upon personal expertise, but rather upon the gathering and collation of statistical knowledge which identifies `risks' within given populations; and that `risk' permits a greater number of young people to be brought into the field of regulatory strategies. Importantly, the category of the `at-risk youth' underpins crucial sections of policy documents such as the Finn Report (into credentialling/ education and vocational competency). In this case, youth is deemed to be `at-risk' of not making the transition to adulthood successfully. It will be argued that not only is the Finn Report significant in the administrative and cultural shaping of the category of `youth', but also by employing the notion of `risk', the Report puts in place yet another element of an effective network of governmental intelligibility covering the young. Finally, it will be argued that young women, as a specific example of a `risk' group (vis-a-vis obtaining certain types of employment), require particular forms of intervention, primarily through changing the vocational aspirations of their parents.

Alternative schooling programs for at risk youth : three case studies

This thesis develops a critical realist explanatory critique of alternative schooling programs for youth at risk taking place at three case study sites. Throughout the thesis the author pursues the question, \Are alternative provisions of schooling working academically and socially for youth at risk?. The academic lens targets literacy learning and associated pedagogies. Social outcomes are posited as positive social behaviours and continued engagement in learning. A four phased analysis, drawing on critical realism, interpretive and subject specific theories is used to elicit explanations for the research question. An overall framework is a critical realist methodology as set out by Danermark, Ekstrom, Jakobsen and Karlsson (2002, p. 129). Consequently phase one describes the phenomena of alternative schooling programs taking place at three case study sites. This is reported first as staff narratives that are resolved into imaginable historical causal components of \generative events., \prior schooling structures., \models of alternative schooling., \purpose., \individual agency., and \relations with linked community organisations.. Then transcendental questions are posed about each component using retroduction to uncover structures, underlying mechanisms and powers, and individual agency. In the second phase the researcher uses modified grounded theory methodology to theoretically redescribe causal categories related to a \needed different teaching and administrative approach. that emerged from the previous critique. A transcendental question is then applied to this redescription. The research phenomena are again theoretically redescribed in the third phase, this time using three theoretically based constructs associated with literacy and literacy pedagogies; the NRS, the 4 Resources Model, and Productive Pedagogies. This redescription is again questioned in terms of its core or \necessary. components. The fourth phase makes an explanatory critique by comparing and critiquing all previous explanations, recontextualising them in a wider macro reality of alternative schooling. Through this critical realist explanatory critiquing process, a response emerges not only to whether alternative provisions of schooling are working, but also how they are working, and how they are not working, with realistically based implications for future improvement.

Shaping the at-risk youth

The category of the `at-risk' youth currently underpins a good deal of youth policy. Primarily, it centres around a range of programs associated with the need for state intervention. The `at-risk' youth tenuously appears at the intersection of a variety of knowledges/problematisations, such as vocational guidance, youth welfare, family management, and so on. Whilst it is argued that in some ways, the `at-risk' youth simply replaces older characterisations used in the policing of the young, it will also be argued that the preventative policies associated with `risk' are constituted in terms of factors rather than individuals, that prevention is no longer primarily based upon personal expertise, but rather upon the gathering and collation of statistical knowledge which identifies `risks' within given populations, and that `risk' legitimates unlimited governmental intervention. Importantly, the category of the `at-risk' youth underpins crucial sections of policy documents such as the Finn Report (into credentialling/education and vocational competency). In this case, youth is deemed to be `at-risk' of not making the transition to adulthood successfully. It will be argued that not only is the Finn Report significant in the administrative and cultural shaping of the category of `youth', but also by employing the notion of `risk', the Report puts in place yet another element of an effective network of governmental intelligibility covering the young. Finally, it will be argued that young women, as a specific an example of a `risk' group (vis-a-vis obtaining certain types of employment), require particular forms of intervention, primarily through changing the vocational aspirations of their parents.

Crash Risk Assessment with Cooperative Systems

Crash risk is the statistical probability of a crash. Its assessment can be performed through ex post statistical analysis or in real-time with on-vehicle systems. These systems can be cooperative. Cooperative Vehicle-Infrastructure Systems (CVIS) are a developing research avenue in the automotive industry worldwide. This paper provides a survey of existing CVIS systems and methods to assess crash risk with them. It describes the advantages of cooperative systems versus non-cooperative systems. A sample of cooperative crash risk assessment systems is analysed to extract vulnerabilities according to three criteria: market penetration, over-reliance on GPS and broadcasting issues. It shows that cooperative risk assessment systems are still in their infancy and requires further development to provide their full benefits to road users.

Prediction of adjacent vertebral fracture risk associated with vertebroplasty : a computer-based simulation study

Vertebrplasty involved injecting cement into a fractured vertebra to provide stabilisation. There is clinical evidence to suggest however that vertebroplasty may be assocated with a higher risk of adjacent vertebral fracture; which may be due to the change in material properties of the post-procedure vertebra modifying the transmission of mechanical stresses to adjacent vertebrae.