Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

First international workshop on theory and applications of process visualization

The representation of business process models has been a continuing research topic for many years now. However, many process model representations have not developed beyond minimally interactive 2D icon-based representations of directed graphs and networks, with little or no annotation for information over- lays. With the rise of desktop computers and commodity mobile devices capable of supporting rich interactive 3D environments, we believe that much of the research performed in computer human interaction, virtual reality, games and interactive entertainment has much potential in areas of BPM; to engage, pro- vide insight, and to promote collaboration amongst analysts and stakeholders alike. This initial visualization workshop seeks to initiate the development of a high quality international forum to present and discuss research in this field. Via this workshop, we intend to create a community to unify and nurture the development of process visualization topics as a continuing research area.

A critical appraisal of responses to Maori offending

This article critically analyses the role that criminological theory and specific policy formulations of culture play in the New Zealand state’s response to the over-representation of Māori in the criminal justice system. Part one provides an overview of the changing criminological explanations of, and responses to, Māori offending in New Zealand from the 1980s onwards and how these understandings extended colonialist approaches to Māori and crime into the neo-colonial context. In particular, we chart the shift in policy development from theorising Māori offending as attributable to loss of cultural identity to a focus on socio-economic and institutional antecedents and, finally, through the risk factors, assessment, and criminogenic needs approaches that have gained prominence in the current policy context. In part two, the focus moves to the strategies employed by members of the academy to elevate their own epistemological constructions of Māori social reality within the policy development process. In particular, the critique scrutinises recent attempts to portray Indigenous responses to social harm as “unscientific” and, in part, responsible for the continuing over-representation of Māori in New Zealand’s criminal justice system. The purpose of this analysis is to focus the critical, criminological gaze firmly on the activities of policy makers and administrative criminologists, to examine how their policies and approaches impact on Māori as an Indigenous people.

The predictors of active ageing of older Australians : the triple a study

The concept of older adults contributing to society in a meaningful way has been termed ‘active ageing’. Active ageing reflects changes in prevailing theories of social and psychological aspects of ageing, with a focus on individuals' strengths as opposed to their deficits or pathology. In order to explore predictors of active ageing, the Australian Active Ageing (Triple A) project group undertook a national postal survey of participants over the age of 50 years recruited randomly through their 2004 membership of a large Australia-wide senior's organisation. The survey comprised 178 items covering paid and voluntary work, learning, social, spiritual, emotional, health and home, life events and demographic items. A 45% response rate (2655 returned surveys) reflected an expected balance of gender, age and geographic representation of participants. The data were analysed using data mining techniques to represent generalizations on individual situations. Data mining identifies the valid, novel, potentially useful and understandable patterns and trends in data. The results based on the clustering mining technique indicate that physical and emotional health combined with the desire to learn were the most significant factors when considering active ageing. The findings suggest that remaining active in later life is not only directly related to the maintenance of emotional and physical health, but may be significantly intertwined with the opportunity to engage in on-going learning activities that are relevant to the individual. The findings of this study suggest that practitioners and policy makers need to incorporate older peoples' learning needs within service and policy framework developments.

Detaining the usual suspects : charting the use of segregated settings in New South Wales government schools, Australia

In this paper, we examine the increase in segregated placements in the New South Wales government school sector. Using disaggregated enrolment data, we point to the growing over-representation of boys in special schools and classes; particularly those of a certain age in certain support categories. In the discussion that follows, we question the role of special education in the development of new and additional forms of being “at risk.” In effect, we invert the traditional concept by asking: Who is at risk of what? In focusing on the containment of risk, are modern practices of diagnosis and segregation perpetuating risks that already disproportionately affect certain groups of individuals? Do these perceptions of and responses to risk in local schools now place these students at greater personal risk of school failure and a future marked by social exclusion? And, finally, is that risk worth the cost?

Causes of corruption : evidence from China

This study explores the causes of corruption in China using provincial panel data. Using both fixed effects and instrumental variables approaches, we find that provinces with greater anti-corruption efforts, higher educational attainment, historic influence from Anglo-American church universities, greater openness, more access to media, higher relative wages of government employees and a greater representation of women in the legislature are markedly less corrupt; whereas social heterogeneity, regulation and resources abundance breed substantial corruption. We also find that fiscal decentralization depresses corruption significantly. Finally, we identify a positive relationship between corruption and economic development in China, which is driven primarily by the transition to a market economy.

Mathematical modelling of LiFePO4 cathodes

LiFePO4 is a commercially available battery material with good theoretical discharge capacity, excellent cycle life and increased safety compared with competing Li-ion chemistries. It has been the focus of considerable experimental and theoretical scrutiny in the past decade, resulting in LiFePO4 cathodes that perform well at high discharge rates. This scrutiny has raised several questions about the behaviour of LiFePO4 material during charge and discharge. In contrast to many other battery chemistries that intercalate homogeneously, LiFePO4 can phase-separate into highly and lowly lithiated phases, with intercalation proceeding by advancing an interface between these two phases. The main objective of this thesis is to construct mathematical models of LiFePO4 cathodes that can be validated against experimental discharge curves. This is in an attempt to understand some of the multi-scale dynamics of LiFePO4 cathodes that can be difficult to determine experimentally. The first section of this thesis constructs a three-scale mathematical model of LiFePO4 cathodes that uses a simple Stefan problem (which has been used previously in the literature) to describe the assumed phase-change. LiFePO4 crystals have been observed agglomerating in cathodes to form a porous collection of crystals and this morphology motivates the use of three size-scales in the model. The multi-scale model developed validates well against experimental data and this validated model is then used to examine the role of manufacturing parameters (including the agglomerate radius) on battery performance. The remainder of the thesis is concerned with investigating phase-field models as a replacement for the aforementioned Stefan problem. Phase-field models have recently been used in LiFePO4 and are a far more accurate representation of experimentally observed crystal-scale behaviour. They are based around the Cahn-Hilliard-reaction (CHR) IBVP, a fourth-order PDE with electrochemical (flux) boundary conditions that is very stiff and possesses multiple time and space scales. Numerical solutions to the CHR IBVP can be difficult to compute and hence a least-squares based Finite Volume Method (FVM) is developed for discretising both the full CHR IBVP and the more traditional Cahn-Hilliard IBVP. Phase-field models are subject to two main physicality constraints and the numerical scheme presented performs well under these constraints. This least-squares based FVM is then used to simulate the discharge of individual crystals of LiFePO4 in two dimensions. This discharge is subject to isotropic Li+ diffusion, based on experimental evidence that suggests the normally orthotropic transport of Li+ in LiFePO4 may become more isotropic in the presence of lattice defects. Numerical investigation shows that two-dimensional Li+ transport results in crystals that phase-separate, even at very high discharge rates. This is very different from results shown in the literature, where phase-separation in LiFePO4 crystals is suppressed during discharge with orthotropic Li+ transport. Finally, the three-scale cathodic model used at the beginning of the thesis is modified to simulate modern, high-rate LiFePO4 cathodes. High-rate cathodes typically do not contain (large) agglomerates and therefore a two-scale model is developed. The Stefan problem used previously is also replaced with the phase-field models examined in earlier chapters. The results from this model are then compared with experimental data and fit poorly, though a significant parameter regime could not be investigated numerically. Many-particle effects however, are evident in the simulated discharges, which match the conclusions of recent literature. These effects result in crystals that are subject to local currents very different from the discharge rate applied to the cathode, which impacts the phase-separating behaviour of the crystals and raises questions about the validity of using cathodic-scale experimental measurements in order to determine crystal-scale behaviour.

Physical performance profile of sub-elite juvenile Gaelic Games players and the prevalence of a Relative Age Effect (RAE)

Gaelic Games are the indigenous sports played in Ireland, the most popular being Gaelic football and hurling. The games are contact sports and the physical demands are thought to be similar to those of Australian Rules football, rugby union, rugby league, field hockey, and lacrosse (Delahunt et al., 2011). The difference in chronological age between children in a single age group is known as relative age and its consequences as the RAE, whereby younger players are disadvantaged (Del Campo et al., 2010). The purpose of this study was to describe the physical and performance profile of sub-elite juvenile Gaelic Games players and to establish if a RAE is present in this cohort and any influence physiological moderator variables may have on this. Following receipt of ethical approval (EHSREC11-45), six sub-elite county development squads (Under-14/15/16 age groups, male, n=115) volunteered to partake in the study. Anthropometric data including skin folds and girths were collected. A number of field tests of physical performance including 5 and 20m speed, vertical and broad jump distance, and an estimate of VO2max were carried out. Descriptive data are presented as Mean SD. Juvenile sub-elite Gaelic Games players aged 14.53 0.82 y were 172.87 7.63 cm tall, had a mass of 64.74 11.06 kg, a BMI of 21.57 2.82 kg.m-2 and 9.22 4.78 % body fat. Flexibility, measured by sit and reach was 33.62 6.86 cm and lower limb power measured by vertical and broad jump were 42.19 5.73 and 191.16 25.26 cm, respectively. Participant time to complete 5m, 20m and an agility test (T-Test) was 1.12 0.07, 3.31 0.30 and 9.31 0.55 s respectively. Participant’s estimated VO2max was 48.23 5.05 ml.kg.min-1. Chi-Square analysis of birth month by quartile (Q1 = January-March) revealed that a RAE was present in this cohort, whereby an over-representation of players born in Q1 compared with Q2, Q3 and Q4 was evident (2 = 14.078, df = 3, p = 0.003). Kruskal-Wallis analysis of the data revealed no significant difference in any of the performance parameters based on quartile of birth (Alpha level = 0.05).This study provides a physical performance profile of juvenile sub-elite Gaelic Games players, comparable with those of other sports such as soccer and rugby. This novel data can inform us of the physical requirements of the sport. The evidence of a RAE is similar to that observed in other contact sports such as soccer and rugby league (Carling et al, 2009; Till et al, 2010). Although a RAE exists in this cohort, this cannot be explained by any physical/physiological moderator variables. Carling C et al. (2009). Scandinavian Journal of Medicine and Science in Sport 19, 3-9. Delahunt E et al. (2011). Journal of Athletic Training 46, 241-5. Del Campo DG et al. (2010). Journal of Sport Science and Medicine 9, 190-198. Delorme N et al. (2010). European Journal of Sport Science 10, 91-96. Till K et al. (2010). Scandinavian Journal of Medicine and Science in Sports 20, 320-329.

The roles of Australian chairs in clinical nursing

Australian chairs in clinical nursing have been established in order to achieve more effective partnerships between academia and the health care sector in education, research and quality of nursing care. The aim of this study was to describe the goals, obstacles, supports and outcomes of such appointments. The study explored the perceptions of a purposive sample of Australian professors holding clinical chairs, stratified to ensure representation of both the geographical and clinical specialty diversity of the population. Eight professors were interviewed using semi-structured telephone interviews. The interviews covered three phases: role establishment, current foci and future developments. Qualitative analysis for common themes and areas of divergence was conducted with concurrent analysis providing the opportunity to seek confirmation for emerging themes. The participants highlighted the diversity of arrangements between university and health sector partners in establishing their respective roles. Clear communication was crucial to successful partnership arrangements. All roles included components of education, research and politics but the relative contribution of each of these areas depended to a large extent on the priorities of the employing partners. The participants felt the need to secure sustainable income sources and consolidate outcomes to ensure the continued viability of their positions. Clinical professorial nursing appointments provide one means of addressing perceived gaps in the links between the university and health care sectors, academia and clinicians, thus enhancing nursing education, research and politics. Through emphasizing common purpose and mutual respect, these positions can illuminate the crucial role nursing plays in Australian health care delivery.

Second international workshop on theory and applications of process visualization

The representation of business process models has been a continuing research topic for many years now. However, many process model representations have not developed beyond minimally interactive 2D icon-based representations of directed graphs and networks, with little or no annotation for information overlays. In addition, very few of these representations have undergone a thorough analysis or design process with reference to psychological theories on data and process visualization. This dearth of visualization research, we believe, has led to problems with BPM uptake in some organizations, as the representations can be difficult for stakeholders to understand, and thus remains an open research question for the BPM community. In addition, business analysts and process modeling experts themselves need visual representations that are able to assist with key BPM life cycle tasks in the process of generating optimal solutions. With the rise of desktop computers and commodity mobile devices capable of supporting rich interactive 3D environments, we believe that much of the research performed in computer human interaction, virtual reality, games and interactive entertainment have much potential in areas of BPM; to engage, provide insight, and to promote collaboration amongst analysts and stakeholders alike. We believe this is a timely topic, with research emerging in a number of places around the globe, relevant to this workshop. This is the second TAProViz workshop being run at BPM. The intention this year is to consolidate on the results of last year's successful workshop by further developing this important topic, identifying the key research topics of interest to the BPM visualization community.

High-resolution loss of heterozygosity screening implicates PTPRJ as a potential tumor suppressor gene that affects susceptibility to non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma

We employed a Hidden-Markov-Model (HMM) algorithm in loss of heterozygosity (LOH) analysis of high-density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data from Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL) entities, follicular lymphoma (FL), and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). This revealed a high frequency of LOH over the chromosomal region 11p11.2, containing the gene encoding the protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type J (PTPRJ). Although PTPRJ regulates components of key survival pathways in B-cells (i.e., BCR, MAPK, and PI3K signaling), its role in B-cell development is poorly understood. LOH of PTPRJ has been described in several types of cancer but not in any hematological malignancy. Interestingly, FL cases with LOH exhibited down-regulation of PTPRJ, in contrast no significant variation of expression was shown in DLBCLs. In addition, sequence screening in Exons 5 and 13 of PTPRJ identified the G973A (rs2270993), T1054C (rs2270992), A1182C (rs1566734), and G2971C (rs4752904) coding SNPs (cSNPs). The A1182 allele was significantly more frequent in FLs and in NHLs with LOH. Significant over-representation of the C1054 (rs2270992) and the C2971 (rs4752904) alleles were also observed in LOH cases. A haplotype analysis also revealed a significant lower frequency of haplotype GTCG in NHL cases, but it was only detected in cases with retention. Conversely, haplotype GCAC was over-representated in cases with LOH. Altogether, these results indicate that the inactivation of PTPRJ may be a common lymphomagenic mechanism in these NHL subtypes and that haplotypes in PTPRJ gene may play a role in susceptibility to NHL, by affecting activation of PTPRJ in these B-cell lymphomas.

Genetic variants of angiotensin converting enzyme and methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase may act in combination to increase migraine susceptibility

Migraine, with and without aura (MA and MO), is a prevalent and complex neurovascular disorder that is likely to be influenced by multiple genes some of which may be capable of causing vascular changes leading to disease onset. This study was conducted to determine whether the ACE I/D gene variant is involved in migraine risk and whether this variant might act in combination with the previously implicated MTHFR C677T genetic variant in 270 migraine cases and 270 matched controls. Statistical analysis of the ACE I/D variant indicated no significant difference in allele or genotype frequencies (P > 0.05). However, grouping of genotypes showed a modest, yet significant, over-representation of the DD/ID genotype in the migraine group (88%) compared to controls (81%) (OR of 1.64, 95% CI: 1.00–2.69, P = 0.048). Multivariate analysis, including genotype data for the MTHFR C677T, provided evidence that the MTHFR (TT) and ACE (ID/DD) genotypes act in combination to increase migraine susceptibility (OR = 2.18, 95% CI: 1.15–4.16, P = 0.018). This effect was greatest for the MA subtype where the genotype combination corresponded to an OR of 2.89 (95% CI:1.47–5.72, P = 0.002). In Caucasians, the ACE D allele confers a weak independent risk to migraine susceptibility and also appears to act in combination with the C677T variant in the MTHFR gene to confer a stronger influence on the disease.

Analysis of organic aerosols collected on filters by Aerosol Mass Spectrometry for source identification

Aerosol mass spectrometers (AMS) are powerful tools in the analysis of the chemical composition of airborne particles, particularly organic aerosols which are gaining increasing attention. However, the advantages of AMS in providing on-line data can be outweighed by the difficulties involved in its use in field measurements at multiple sites. In contrast to the on-line measurement by AMS, a method which involves sample collection on filters followed by subsequent analysis by AMS could significantly broaden the scope of AMS application. We report the application of such an approach to field studies at multiple sites. An AMS was deployed at 5 urban schools to determine the sources of the organic aerosols at the schools directly. PM1 aerosols were also collected on filters at these and 20 other urban schools. The filters were extracted with water and the extract run through a nebulizer to generate the aerosols, which were analysed by an AMS. The mass spectra from the samples collected on filters at the 5 schools were found to have excellent correlations with those obtained directly by AMS, with r2 ranging from 0.89 to 0.98. Filter recoveries varied between the schools from 40 -115%, possibly indicating that this method provides qualitative rather than quantitative information. The stability of the organic aerosols on Teflon filters was demonstrated by analysing samples stored for up to two years. Application of the procedure to the remaining 20 schools showed that secondary organic aerosols were the main source of aerosols at the majority of the schools. Overall, this procedure provides accurate representation of the mass spectra of ambient organic aerosols and could facilitate rapid data acquisition at multiple sites where AMS could not be deployed for logistical reasons.

A portrayal of new entrants into the Australian economy (Entrepreneurial individuals and ventures)

This paper provides a descriptive overview of the venture creation in Australia, those who participate in it and the types of firms they build. Findings of interest in this paper include: • The majority of business founders (89 per cent) state the motivation to start a new business is opportunity-driven rather than necessity driven. • The extent of under-representation of women business founders in Australia appears to be lower than international comparisons and has decreased over time. • Australian business founders tend to possess significant ‘human capital’ many are university-educated, and large shares have different types of experience that may benefit the start-up. • The major industries for start-up activities are Retailing; various service industries (Business Consulting; Health, Education and Social; other Consumer services); Construction, Manufacturing, and Agriculture. • A large proportion of CAUSEE respondents (49 per cent nascent firms and 46 per cent young firms) are members of start-up teams, which is similar to international comparisons.

Equal employment opportunity and its links to the participation of women in the construction industry : the case of Australia

Australia is currently experiencing a resources boom and jobs in the male dominated fields of construction and engineering are at a premium. Employment in the construction industry, historically and today, is overwhelmingly male and, with an ageing population this predominately older male workforce will be retiring in greater numbers in the coming decade. Despite more that 25 years of anti- discrimination legislation and equal opportunity legislation these industries still employ few women in operational roles. This paper investigates the issue of the low representation of women in the construction industry. Our investigation involves the analysis of 95 organisation progress reports on the equal opportunity strategic programs in the construction industry. Findings indicate that this industry is not engaging with equal employment opportunity programs and further that equity outcomes for women in the industry are not evident.