The valuation accuracy of multiples in mergers and acquisitions, and their association with firm misvaluation

This study explores the accuracy and valuation implications of the application of a comprehensive list of equity multiples in the takeover context. Motivating the study is the prevalent use of equity multiples in practice, the observed long-run underperformance of acquirers following takeovers, and the scarcity of multiplesbased research in the merger and acquisition setting. In exploring the application of equity multiples in this context three research questions are addressed: (1) how accurate are equity multiples (RQ1); which equity multiples are more accurate in valuing the firm (RQ2); and which equity multiples are associated with greater misvaluation of the firm (RQ3). Following a comprehensive review of the extant multiples-based literature it is hypothesised that the accuracy of multiples in estimating stock market prices in the takeover context will rank as follows (from best to worst): (1) forecasted earnings multiples, (2) multiples closer to bottom line earnings, (3) multiples based on Net Cash Flow from Operations (NCFO) and trading revenue. The relative inaccuracies in multiples are expected to flow through to equity misvaluation (as measured by the ratio of estimated market capitalisation to residual income value, or P/V). Accordingly, it is hypothesised that greater overvaluation will be exhibited for multiples based on Trading Revenue, NCFO, Book Value (BV) and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) versus multiples based on bottom line earnings; and that multiples based on Intrinsic Value will display the least overvaluation. The hypotheses are tested using a sample of 147 acquirers and 129 targets involved in Australian takeover transactions announced between 1990 and 2005. The results show that first, the majority of computed multiples examined exhibit valuation errors within 30 percent of stock market values. Second, and consistent with expectations, the results provide support for the superiority of multiples based on forecasted earnings in valuing targets and acquirers engaged in takeover transactions. Although a gradual improvement in estimating stock market values is not entirely evident when moving down the Income Statement, historical earnings multiples perform better than multiples based on Trading Revenue or NCFO. Third, while multiples based on forecasted earnings have the highest valuation accuracy they, along with Trading Revenue multiples for targets, produce the most overvalued valuations for acquirers and targets. Consistent with predictions, greater overvaluation is exhibited for multiples based on Trading Revenue for targets, and NCFO and EBITDA for both acquirers and targets. Finally, as expected, multiples based Intrinsic Value (along with BV) are associated with the least overvaluation. Given the widespread usage of valuation multiples in takeover contexts these findings offer a unique insight into their relative effectiveness. Importantly, the findings add to the growing body of valuation accuracy literature, especially within Australia, and should assist market participants to better understand the relative accuracy and misvaluation consequences of various equity multiples used in takeover documentation and assist them in subsequent investment decision making.

Welfare surveillance, income management and new paternalism in Australia

This article discusses the situation of income support claimants in Australia, constructed as faulty citizens and flawed welfare subjects. Many are on the receiving end of complex, multi-layered forms of surveillance aimed at securing socially responsible and compliant behaviours. In Australia, as in other Western countries, neoliberal economic regimes with their harsh and often repressive treatment of welfare recipients operate in tandem with a burgeoning and costly arsenal of CCTV and other surveillance and governance assemblages. Through a program of ‘Income Management’, initially targeting (mainly) Indigenous welfare recipients in Australia’s Northern Territory, the BasicsCard (administered by Centrelink, on behalf of the Australian Federal Government’s Department of Human Services) is one example of this welfare surveillance. The scheme operates by ‘quarantining’ a percentage of a claimant’s welfare entitlements to be spent by way of the BasicsCard on ‘approved’ items only. The BasicsCard scheme raises significant questions about whether it is possible to encourage people to take responsibility for themselves if they no longer have real control over the most important aspects of their lives. Some Indigenous communities have resisted the BasicsCard, criticising it because the imposition of income management leads to a loss of trust, dignity, and individual agency. Further, income management of individuals by the welfare state contradicts the purported aim that they become less ‘welfare dependent’ and more ‘self-reliant’. In highlighting issues around compulsory income management this paper makes a contribution to the largely under discussed area of income management and welfare surveillance, with its propensity for function creep, garnering large volumes of data on BasicsCard user’s approved (and declined) purchasing decisions, complete with dates, amounts, times and locations.

Monitoring the price and affordability of foods and diets globally

Food prices and food affordability are important determinants of food choices, obesity and non-communicable diseases. As governments around the world consider policies to promote the consumption of healthier foods, data on the relative price and affordability of foods, with a particular focus on the difference between ‘less healthy’ and ‘healthy’ foods and diets, are urgently needed. This paper briefly reviews past and current approaches to monitoring food prices, and identifies key issues affecting the development of practical tools and methods for food price data collection, analysis and reporting. A step-wise monitoring framework, including measurement indicators, is proposed. ‘Minimal’ data collection will assess the differential price of ‘healthy’ and ‘less healthy’ foods; ‘expanded’ monitoring will assess the differential price of ‘healthy’ and ‘less healthy’ diets; and the ‘optimal’ approach will also monitor food affordability, by taking into account household income. The monitoring of the price and affordability of ‘healthy’ and ‘less healthy’ foods and diets globally will provide robust data and benchmarks to inform economic and fiscal policy responses. Given the range of methodological, cultural and logistical challenges in this area, it is imperative that all aspects of the proposed monitoring framework are tested rigorously before implementation.

Posttraumatic growth in family members living with a relative diagnosed with schizophrenia

Family members living with a relative diagnosed with schizophrenia have reported challenges and traumatic stressors, as well as perceived benefits and personal growth. This study explored factors associated with posttraumatic growth (PTG) within such families. Personality, stress, coping, social support and PTG were assessed in 110 family members. Results revealed that a multiplicative mediational path model with social support and emotional or instrumental coping strategies as multi-mediators had a significant indirect effect on the relationship between extraversion and PTG. Clinically relevant concepts that map onto the multi-mediator model are discussed, translating these findings into clinical practice to facilitate naturally occurring PTG processes.

City relative price dynamics in Australia : are structural breaks important?

This paper examines the dynamic behaviour of relative prices across seven Australian cities by applying panel unit root test procedures with structural breaks to quarterly consumer price index data for 1972 Q1–2011 Q4. We find overwhelming evidence of convergence in city relative prices. Three common structural breaks are endogenously determined at 1985, 1995, and 2007. Further, correcting for two potential biases, namely Nickell bias and time aggregation bias, we obtain half-life estimates of 2.3–3.8 quarters that are much shorter than those reported by previous research. Thus, we conclude that both structural breaks and bias corrections are important to obtain shorter half-life estimates.

HMM relative entropy rate concepts for vision-based aircraft manoeuvre detection

Machine vision is emerging as a viable sensing approach for mid-air collision avoidance (particularly for small to medium aircraft such as unmanned aerial vehicles). In this paper, using relative entropy rate concepts, we propose and investigate a new change detection approach that uses hidden Markov model filters to sequentially detect aircraft manoeuvres from morphologically processed image sequences. Experiments using simulated and airborne image sequences illustrate the performance of our proposed algorithm in comparison to other sequential change detection approaches applied to this application.

A methodological approach to reporting corrected small field relative outputs

Purpose The goal of this work was to set out a methodology for measuring and reporting small field relative output and to assess the application of published correction factors across a population of linear accelerators. Methods and materials Measurements were made at 6 MV on five Varian iX accelerators using two PTW T60017 unshielded diodes. Relative output readings and profile measurements were made for nominal square field sizes of side 0.5 to 1.0 cm. The actual in-plane (A) and cross-plane (B) field widths were taken to be the FWHM at the 50% isodose level. An effective field size, defined as FSeff=A·B, was calculated and is presented as a field size metric. FSeffFSeff was used to linearly interpolate between published Monte Carlo (MC) calculated kQclin,Qmsrfclin,fmsr values to correct for the diode over-response in small fields. Results The relative output data reported as a function of the nominal field size were different across the accelerator population by up to nearly 10%. However, using the effective field size for reporting showed that the actual output ratios were consistent across the accelerator population to within the experimental uncertainty of ±1.0%. Correcting the measured relative output using kQclin,Qmsrfclin,fmsr at both the nominal and effective field sizes produce output factors that were not identical but differ by much less than the reported experimental and/or MC statistical uncertainties. Conclusions In general, the proposed methodology removes much of the ambiguity in reporting and interpreting small field dosimetric quantities and facilitates a clear dosimetric comparison across a population of linacs

Looking back : students' perceptions of the relative enjoyment of primary and secondary school science

This paper reports and discusses a contentious result from an Australia-wide study of the influences on students' decisions about taking senior science subjects. As part of the Choosing Science study (Lyons and Quinn 2010) 3759 Year 10 students were asked to indicate which stage of their schooling (lower primary, upper primary, lower secondary, middle secondary) they had most enjoyed learning science. Crosstabulations of responses revealed that around 78% of students indicated that they had enjoyed learning science more in secondary than in primary school, and 55% enjoyed it the most during Years 9 and 10. The perception that school science was more enjoyable in high school was also found among students who did not intend taking science in Year 11, though to a lesser extent. These findings are unexpected and significant, challenging the prevailing view that enjoyment of school science steadily declines after primary school. The paper elaborates on the findings and suggests that the different conclusions arrived at by studies in this field may be due to the different methodologies employed.

Psychometric properties of the modified RESIDE physical activity questionnaire among low-income overweight women

Objectives This study explored the criterion-related validity and test-retest reliability of the modified RESIDential Environment physical activity questionnaire and whether the instrument's validity varied by body mass index, education, race/ethnicity, or employment status. Design Validation study using baseline data collected for randomized trial of a weight loss intervention. Methods Participants recruited from health departments wore an ActiGraph accelerometer and self-reported non-occupational walking, moderate and vigorous physical activity on the modified RESIDential Environment questionnaire. We assessed validity (n = 152) using Spearman correlation coefficients, and reliability (n = 57) using intraclass correlation coefficients. Results When compared to steps, moderate physical activity, and bouts of moderate/vigorous physical activity measured by accelerometer, these questionnaire measures showed fair evidence for validity: recreational walking (Spearman correlation coefficients 0.23–0.36), total walking (Spearman correlation coefficients 0.24–0.37), and total moderate physical activity (Spearman correlation coefficients 0.18–0.36). Correlations for self-reported walking and moderate physical activity were higher among unemployed participants and women with lower body mass indices. Generally no other variability in the validity of the instrument was found. Evidence for reliability of RESIDential Environment measures of recreational walking, total walking, and total moderate physical activity was substantial (intraclass correlation coefficients 0.56–0.68). Conclusions Evidence for questionnaire validity and reliability varied by activity domain and was strongest for walking measures. The questionnaire may capture physical activity less accurately among women with higher body mass indices and employed participants. Capturing occupational activity, specifically walking at work, may improve questionnaire validity.

Outsourcing income tax returns : convenient and/or controversial

This paper investigates the outsourcing of income tax return preparation by Australian accounting firms. It identifies the extent to which firms are currently outsourcing accounting services or considering outsourcing accounting services, with a focus on personal and business income tax return preparation. The motivations and barriers for outsourcing by Australian accounting firms are also considered in this paper. Privacy, security of client data, and the competence of the outsourcing provider's staff have been identified as risks associated with outsourcing. An expectation relating to confidentiality of client data is also examined in this paper. Statistical analysis of data collected from a random sample of Australian accounting firms using a survey questionnaire provided the empirical data for the paper. The results indicate that the majority of Australian accounting firms are either currently outsourcing or considering outsourcing accounting services, and firms are outsourcing taxation preparation both onshore and offshore. The results also indicate that firms expect the volume of outsourced work to increase in the future. In contrast to the literature identifying labour arbitrage as the primary driver for organisations choosing to outsource, this study found that the main factors considered by accounting firms in the decision to outsource were to expedite delivery of services to clients and to enable the firm to focus on core competencies. Data from this study also supports the literature which ndicates that not all tax practitioners are adhering to codes of conduct in relation to client confidentiality. Research identifying the extent to which accounting services are outsourced is limited, therefore significant contributions to the academic literature and the accounting profession are provided by this ndicates that not all tax practitioners are adhering to codes of conduct in relation to client confidentiality. Research identifying the extent to which accounting services are outsourced is limited, therefore significant contributions to the academic literature and the accounting profession are provided by this study.

Imputing a continuous income variable from a bracketed income variable with special attention to missing observations

This paper proposes a method, based on polychotomous discrete choice methods, to impute a continuous measure of income when only a bracketed measure of income is available and for only a subset of the obsevations. The method is shown to perform well with CP5 data. © 1991.

Precise relative clock synchronization for distributed control using TSC registers

Precise clock synchronization is essential in emerging time-critical distributed control systems operating over computer networks where the clock synchronization requirements are mostly focused on relative clock synchronization and high synchronization precision. Existing clock synchronization techniques such as the Network Time Protocol (NTP) and the IEEE 1588 standard can be difficult to apply to such systems because of the highly precise hardware clocks required, due to network congestion caused by a high frequency of synchronization message transmissions, and high overheads. In response, we present a Time Stamp Counter based precise Relative Clock Synchronization Protocol (TSC-RCSP) for distributed control applications operating over local-area networks (LANs). In our protocol a software clock based on the TSC register, counting CPU cycles, is adopted in the time clients and server. TSC-based clocks offer clients a precise, stable and low-cost clock synchronization solution. Experimental results show that clock precision in the order of 10~microseconds can be achieved in small-scale LAN systems. Such clock precision is much higher than that of a processor's Time-Of-Day clock, and is easily sufficient for most distributed real-time control applications over LANs.

Defining and Accounting for Fundraising Income and Expenses

Charities' fundraising financial transactions should be reported in the interests of accountability, and the report should be publicly available. However, research shows that at present there is little consistency in how fundraising is defined or in how such transactions are reported, and little guidance from accounting standards. This report examines whether the current reporting of fundraising in annual financial statements by Australian charities is fit for the purposes of informing the donating public and other stakeholders, whether through the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission’s registry strategy or through other means such as private ratings agencies. The authors endeavour to suggest a way forward if it is not.

Defining and Accounting for Fundraising Income and Expenses : Executive Summary : ACPNS Current issues Information Sheet 2014/2

Executive summary of Report examining definitions of fundraising and formal Australian accounting standards to ascertain their impact on reporting fundraising transactions by not-for-profit entities.