Carbon nanotube-based super nanotubes: Tunable thermal conductivity in three dimensions

Advances in nanomaterials/nanostructures offer the possibility of fabricating multifunctional materials for use in engineering applications. Carbon nanotube (CNT)-based nanostructures are a representative building block for these multifunctional materials. Based on a series of in silico studies, we investigated the possibility of tuning the thermal conductivity of a three-dimensional CNT-based nanostructure: a single-walled CNT-based super-nanotube. The thermal conductivity of the super-nanotubes was shown to vary with different connecting carbon rings and super-nanotubes with longer constituent single-walled CNTs and larger diameters had a smaller thermal conductivity. The inverse of the thermal conductivity of the super-nanotubes showed a good linear relationship with the inverse of the length. The thermal conductivity was approximately proportional to the inverse of the temperature, but was insensitive to the axial strain as a result of the Poisson ratio. These results provide a fundamental understanding of the thermal conductivity of the super-nanotubes and will guide their future design/fabrication and engineering applications.

Trends in hospital admission for stroke in Calgary

Background Stroke incidence has fallen since 1950. Recent trends suggest that stroke incidence may be stabilizing or increasing. We investigated time trends in stroke occurrence and in-hospital morbidity and mortality in the Calgary Health Region. Methods All patients admitted to hospitals in the Calgary Health Region between 1994 and 2002 with a primary discharge diagnosis code (ICD-9 or ICD-10) of stroke were included. In-hospital strokes were also included. Stroke type, date of admission, age, gender,discharge disposition (died, discharged) and in-hospital complications (pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, deep venous thrombosis) were recorded. Poisson and simple linear regression was used to model time trends of occurrence by stroke type and age-group and to extrapolate future time trends. Results From 1994 to 2002, 11642 stroke events were observed. Of these, 9879 patients (84.8%) were discharged from hospital, 1763 (15.1%) died in hospital, and 591 (5.1%) developed in-hospital complications from pneumonia, pulmonary embolism or deep venous thrombosis. Both in-hospital mortality and complication rates were highest for hemorrhages. Over the period of study, the rate of stroke admission has remained stable. However, total numbers of stroke admission to hospital have faced a significant increase (p=0.012) due to the combination of increases in intracerebral hemorrhage (p=0.021) and ischemic stroke admissions (p=0.011). Sub-arachnoid hemorrhage rates have declined. In-hospital stroke mortality has experienced an overall decline due to a decrease in deaths from ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage and sub-arachnoid hemorrhage. Conclusions Although age-adjusted stroke occurrence rates were stable from 1994 to 2002, this is associated with both a sharp increase in the absolute number of stroke admissions and decline in proportional in-hospital mortality. Further research is needed into changes in stroke severity over time to understand the causes of declining in-hospital stroke mortality rates.

Spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery in China from 1990 to 2009: What is the driver behind?

BACKGROUND Little is known about the spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery (BD) in China. This study assessed the geographic distribution and seasonality of BD in China over the past two decades. METHODS Data on monthly BD cases in 31 provinces of China from January 1990 to December 2009 obtained from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and data on demographic and geographic factors, as well as climatic factors, were compiled. The spatial distributions of BD in the four periods across different provinces were mapped, and heat maps were created to present the seasonality of BD by geography. A cosinor function combined with Poisson regression was used to quantify the seasonal parameters of BD, and a regression analysis was conducted to identify the potential drivers of morbidity and seasonality of BD. RESULTS Although most regions of China have experienced considerable declines in BD morbidity over the past two decades, Beijing and Ningxia still had high BD morbidity in 2009. BD morbidity decreased more slowly in North-west China than other regions. BD in China mainly peaked from July to September, with heterogeneity in peak time between regions. Relative humidity was associated with BD morbidity and peak time, and latitude was the major predictor of BD amplitude. CONCLUSIONS The transmission of BD was heterogeneous in China. Improved sanitation and hygiene in North-west China, and better access to clean water and food in the big floating population in some metropolises could be the focus of future preventive interventions against BD. BD control efforts should put more emphasis on those dry areas in summer.

Associations between extreme precipitation and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in urban and rural areas in Hefei, China

Background Understanding the relationship between extreme weather events and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is important in the context of climate change. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between extreme precipitation and childhood HFMD in Hefei, China, and further, to explore whether the association varied across urban and rural areas. Methods Daily data on HFMD counts among children aged 0–14 years from 2010 January 1st to 2012 December 31st were retrieved from Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily data on mean temperature, relative humidity and precipitation during the same period were supplied by Hefei Bureau of Meteorology. We used a Poisson linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the association between extreme precipitation (≥ 90th precipitation) and childhood HFMD, controlling for mean temperature, humidity, day of week, and long-term trend. Results There was a statistically significant association between extreme precipitation and childhood HFMD. The effect of extreme precipitation on childhood HFMD was the greatest at six days lag, with a 5.12% (95% confident interval: 2.7–7.57%) increase of childhood HFMD for an extreme precipitation event versus no precipitation. Notably, urban children and children aged 0–4 years were particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme precipitation. Conclusions Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation may increase the incidence of childhood HFMD in Hefei, highlighting the importance of protecting children from forthcoming extreme precipitation, particularly for those who are young and from urban areas.

Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: A systematic evaluation

Background: Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. Methods: We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relation between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing overdispersion with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relation. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the nonlinear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. Results: The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Conclusions: People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with increased risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change.

Temperature variation between neighboring days and mortality: a distributed lag non-linear analysis

Objectives To investigate whether a sudden temperature change between neighboring days has significant impact on mortality. Methods A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear models was used to estimate the association of temperature change between neighboring days with mortality in a subtropical Chinese city during 2008–2012. Temperature change was calculated as the current day’s temperature minus the previous day’s temperature. Results A significant effect of temperature change between neighboring days on mortality was observed. Temperature increase was significantly associated with elevated mortality from non-accidental and cardiovascular diseases, while temperature decrease had a protective effect on non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Males and people aged 65 years or older appeared to be more vulnerable to the impact of temperature change. Conclusions Temperature increase between neighboring days has a significant adverse impact on mortality. Further health mitigation strategies as a response to climate change should take into account temperature variation between neighboring days.

Mortality reduction following the air pollution control measures during the 2010 Asian Games

Though increased particulate air pollution has been consistently associated with elevated mortality, evidence regarding whether diminished particulate air pollution would lead to mortality reduction is limited. Citywide air pollution mitigation program during the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou, China, provided such an opportunity. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was compared for 51 intervention days (November 1–December 21) in 2010 with the same calendar date of baseline years (2006–2009 and 2011). Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated using a time series Poisson model, adjusting for day of week, public holidays, daily mean temperature and relative humidity. Daily PM10 (particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) decreased from 88.64 μg/m3 during the baseline period to 80.61 μg/m3 during the Asian Games period. Other measured air pollutants and weather variables did not differ substantially. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases decreased from 32, 11 and 6 during the baseline period to 25, 8 and 5 during the Games period, the corresponding RR for the Games period compared with the baseline period was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73–0.86), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.66–0.89) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57–0.80), respectively. No significant decreases were observed in other months of 2010 in Guangzhou and intervention period in two control cities. This finding supports the efforts to reduce air pollution and improve public health through transportation restriction and industrial emission control.

The effects of high temperature on cardiovascular admissions in the most populous tropical city in Vietnam

This study examined the short-term effects of temperature on cardiovascular hospital admissions (CHA) in the largest tropical city in Southern Vietnam. We applied Poisson time-series regression models with Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) to examine the temperature-CHA association while adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends, day of the week, holidays, and humidity. The threshold temperature and added effects of heat waves were also evaluated. The exposure-response curve of temperature-CHA reveals a J-shape relationship with a threshold temperature of 29.6 °C. The delayed effects temperature-CHA lasted for a week (0–5 days). The overall risk of CHA increased 12.9% (RR, 1.129; 95%CI, 0.972–1.311) during heatwave events, which were defined as temperature ≥ the 99th percentile for ≥2 consecutive days. The modification roles of gender and age were inconsistent and non-significant in this study. An additional prevention program that reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease in relation to high temperatures should be developed.

Association between glaucoma and at–fault motor vehicle collision involvement among older drivers

Objective To examine the association between glaucoma and motor vehicle collision (MVC) involvement among older drivers, including the role of visual field impairment that may underlie any association found. Design A retrospective population-based study Participants A sample of 2,000 licensed drivers aged 70 years and older who reside in north central Alabama. Methods At-fault MVC involvement for five years prior to enrollment was obtained from state records. Three aspects of visual function were measured: habitual binocular distance visual acuity, binocular contrast sensitivity and the binocular driving visual field constructed from combining the monocular visual fields of each eye. Poisson regression was used to calculate crude and adjusted rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Main Outcomes Measures At-fault MVC involvement for five years prior to enrollment. Results Drivers with glaucoma (n = 206) had a 1.65 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-2.28, p = 0.002) times higher MVC rate compared to those without glaucoma after adjusting for age, gender and mental status. Among those with glaucoma, drivers with severe visual field loss had higher MVC rates (RR = 2.11, 95% CI 1.09-4.09, p = 0.027), whereas no significant association was found among those with impaired visual acuity and contrast sensitivity. When the visual field was sub-divided into six regions (upper, lower, left, and right visual fields; horizontal and vertical meridians), we found that impairment in the left, upper or lower visual field was associated with higher MVC rates, and an impaired left visual field showed the highest RR (RR = 3.16, p = 0.001) compared to other regions. However, no significant association was found in deficits in the right side or along the horizontal or vertical meridian. Conclusions A population-based study suggests that older drivers with glaucoma are more likely to have a history of at-fault MVC involvement than those without glaucoma. Impairment in the driving visual field in drivers with glaucoma appears to have an independent association with at-fault MVC involvement, whereas visual acuity and contrast sensitivity impairments do not.

General practitioner utilisation amongst urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged less than 5 years

Aim There are limited studies documenting the frequency and reason for attendance to primary health care services in Australian children, particularly for urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children. This study describes health service utilisation in this population in an urban setting. Methods An ongoing prospective cohort study of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged <5 years registered with an urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander primary health care centre in Brisbane, Australia. Detailed demographic, clinical, health service utilisation and risk factor data are collected by Aboriginal researchers at enrolment and monthly for a period of 12 months on each child. The incidence of health service utilisation was calculated according to the Poisson distribution. Results Between 14 February 2013 and 31 October 2014, 118 children were recruited, providing data for 535 child-months of observation. Ninety-one percent of children were Aboriginal, 4% Torres Strait Islander and 5% were both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander. The incidence of presentations to see a doctor for any reason was 43.9 episodes/100 child months (95%CI 38.4 – 49.9) The most common reasons for presentation were for immunisations (23%), respiratory illnesses (19%) and for Australian Government funded Indigenous child health check (16%). The primary health services used, for majority of these visits were Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander specific medical services (61%). Conclusions Within a cultural-specific service for an urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, there is a high frequency of childhood attendance at for primary health care services. Well-health checks and respiratory illnesses were the most common reasons. The high proportion of visits for well child services suggests a potential for opportunistic health promotion, education and early interventions across a range of child health issues.

Mechanical properties of a hollow-cylindrical-joint honeycomb

In this paper, we constructed a new honeycomb by replacing the three-edge joint of the conventional regular hexagonal honeycomb with a hollow-cylindrical joint, and developed a corresponding theory to study its mechanical properties, i.e., Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, fracture strength and stress intensity factor. Interestingly, with respect to the conventional regular hexagonal honeycomb, its Young's modulus and fracture strength are improved by 76% and 303%, respectively; whereas, for its stress intensity factor, two possibilities exist for the maximal improvements which are dependent of its relative density, and the two improvements are 366% for low-density case and 195% for high-density case, respectively. Moreover, a minimal Poisson's ratio exists. The present structure and theory could be used to design new honeycomb materials.

A generalized estimating equations approach for analysis of the impact of new technology on a trawl fishery

The article describes a generalized estimating equations approach that was used to investigate the impact of technology on vessel performance in a trawl fishery during 1988-96, while accounting for spatial and temporal correlations in the catch-effort data. Robust estimation of parameters in the presence of several levels of clustering depended more on the choice of cluster definition than on the choice of correlation structure within the cluster. Models with smaller cluster sizes produced stable results, while models with larger cluster sizes, that may have had complex within-cluster correlation structures and that had within-cluster covariates, produced estimates sensitive to the correlation structure. The preferred model arising from this dataset assumed that catches from a vessel were correlated in the same years and the same areas, but independent in different years and areas. The model that assumed catches from a vessel were correlated in all years and areas, equivalent to a random effects term for vessel, produced spurious results. This was an unexpected finding that highlighted the need to adopt a systematic strategy for modelling. The article proposes a modelling strategy of selecting the best cluster definition first, and the working correlation structure (within clusters) second. The article discusses the selection and interpretation of the model in the light of background knowledge of the data and utility of the model, and the potential for this modelling approach to apply in similar statistical situations.

Long-term ambient air pollution exposure and self-reported morbidity in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health: A cross-sectional study

- Objective We sought to assess the effect of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution on the prevalence of self-reported health outcomes in Australian women. - Design Cross-sectional study - Setting and participants The geocoded residential addresses of 26 991 women across 3 age cohorts in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health between 2006 and 2011 were linked to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) exposure estimates from a land-use regression model. Annual average NO2 concentrations and residential proximity to roads were used as proxies of exposure to ambient air pollution. - Outcome measures Self-reported disease presence for diabetes mellitus, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and self-reported symptoms of allergies, breathing difficulties, chest pain and palpitations. - Methods Disease prevalence was modelled by population-averaged Poisson regression models estimated by generalised estimating equations. Associations between symptoms and ambient air pollution were modelled by multilevel mixed logistic regression. Spatial clustering was accounted for at the postcode level. - Results No associations were observed between any of the outcome and exposure variables considered at the 1% significance level after adjusting for known risk factors and confounders. - Conclusions Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution was not associated with self-reported disease prevalence in Australian women. The observed results may have been due to exposure and outcome misclassification, lack of power to detect weak associations or an actual absence of associations with self-reported outcomes at the relatively low annual average air pollution exposure levels across Australia.

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Turning up the Heat on Admissions: A Study of the Impacts of Extreme Heat Events on Tasmanian Hospital Admissions 2003-2010

Introduction: Extreme heat events (both heat waves and extremely hot days) are increasing in frequency and duration globally and cause more deaths in Australia than any other extreme weather event. Numerous studies have demonstrated a link between extreme heat events and an increased risk of morbidity and death. In this study, the researchers sought to identify if extreme heat events in the Tasmanian population were associated with any changes in emergency department admissions to the Royal Hobart Hospital (RHH) for the period 2003-2010. Methods: Non-identifiable RHH emergency department data and climate data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology were obtained for the period 2003-2010. Statistical analyses were conducted using the computer statistical computer software ‘R’ with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) package used to fit a quassi-Poisson generalised linear regression model. Results: This study showed that RR of admission to RHH during 2003-2010 was significant over temperatures of 24 C with a lag effect lasting 12 days and main effect noted one day after the extreme heat event. Discussion: This study demonstrated that extreme heat events have a significant impact on public hospital admissions. Two limitations were identified: admissions data rather than presentations data were used and further analysis could be done to compare types of admissions and presentations between heat and non-heat events. Conclusion: With the impacts of climate change already being felt in Australia, public health organisations in Tasmania and the rest of Australia need to implement adaptation strategies to enhance resilience to protect the public from the adverse health effects of heat events and climate change.