Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Bayesian predictive modeling and comparison of oil samples

Statistical comparison of oil samples is an integral part of oil spill identification, which deals with the process of linking an oil spill with its source of origin. In current practice, a frequentist hypothesis test is often used to evaluate evidence in support of a match between a spill and a source sample. As frequentist tests are only able to evaluate evidence against a hypothesis but not in support of it, we argue that this leads to unsound statistical reasoning. Moreover, currently only verbal conclusions on a very coarse scale can be made about the match between two samples, whereas a finer quantitative assessment would often be preferred. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian predictive approach for evaluating the similarity between the chemical compositions of two oil samples. We derive the underlying statistical model from some basic assumptions on modeling assays in analytical chemistry, and to further facilitate and improve numerical evaluations, we develop analytical expressions for the key elements of Bayesian inference for this model. The approach is illustrated with both simulated and real data and is shown to have appealing properties in comparison with both standard frequentist and Bayesian approaches

Changes in lycopene and beta carotene contents in aril and oil of gac fruit during storage

Gac fruits were physically measured and stored under ambient conditions for up to 2 weeks to observe changes in carotenoid contents (lycopene and beta carotene) in its aril. Initial concentrations in the aril of lycopene were from 2.378 mg/g fresh weight (FW) to 3.728 mg/g FW and those of beta carotene were from 0.257 to 0.379 mg/g FW. Carotenoid concentrations in the aril remained stable after 1 week but sharply declined after 2 weeks of storage. Gac oil, pressed from gac aril, has similar concentrations of lycopene and beta carotene (2.436 and 2.592 mg/g, respectively). Oil was treated with 0.02% of butylated hydroxytoluene, or with a stream of nitrogen or untreated then stored in the dark for up to 15 or 19 weeks under different temperatures (5 °C, ambient, 45 and 60 °C). Lycopene and beta carotene in control gac oil degraded following the first-order kinetic model. The degradation rate of lycopene and beta carotene in the treated oil samples were lower than that in the control oil but the first-order kinetic was not always followed. However, both lycopene and beta carotene degraded quickly in gac oil with the first-order kinetic under high temperature conditions (45 and 60 °C) regardless of the treatments used. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-density fine-mapping of a chromosome 10q26 linkage peak suggests association between endometriosis and variants close to CYP2C19

OBJECTIVE To refine a previously reported linkage peak for endometriosis on chromosome 10q26, and conduct follow-up analyses and a fine-mapping association study across the region to identify new candidate genes for endometriosis. DESIGN Case-control study. SETTING Academic research. PATIENT(S) Cases=3,223 women with surgically confirmed endometriosis; controls=1,190 women without endometriosis and 7,060 population samples. INTERVENTION(S) Analysis of 11,984 single nucleotide polymorphisms on chromosome 10. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S) Allele frequency differences between cases and controls. RESULT(S) Linkage analyses on families grouped by endometriosis symptoms (primarily subfertility) provided increased evidence for linkage (logarithm of odds score=3.62) near a previously reported linkage peak. Three independent association signals were found at 96.59 Mb (rs11592737), 105.63 Mb (rs1253130), and 124.25 Mb (rs2250804). Analyses including only samples from linkage families supported the association at all three regions. However, only rs11592737 in the cytochrome P450 subfamily C (CYP2C19) gene was replicated in an independent sample of 2,079 cases and 7,060 population controls. CONCLUSION(S) The role of the CYP2C19 gene in conferring risk for endometriosis warrants further investigation.

Insights into PBDE uptake, body burden, and elimination gained from Australian age–Concentration trends observed shortly after peak exposure

Background Population pharmacokinetic models combined with multiple sets of age– concentration biomonitoring data facilitate back-calculation of chemical uptake rates from biomonitoring data. Objectives We back-calculated uptake rates of PBDEs for the Australian population from multiple biomonitoring surveys (top-down) and compared them with uptake rates calculated from dietary intake estimates of PBDEs and PBDE concentrations in dust (bottom-up). Methods Using three sets of PBDE elimination half-lives, we applied a population pharmacokinetic model to the PBDE biomonitoring data measured between 2002–2003 and 2010–2011 to derive the top-down uptake rates of four key PBDE congeners and six age groups. For the bottom-up approach, we used PBDE concentrations measured around 2005. Results Top-down uptake rates of Σ4BDE (the sum of BDEs 47, 99, 100, and 153) varied from 7.9 to 19 ng/kg/day for toddlers and from 1.2 to 3.0 ng/kg/day for adults; in most cases, they were—for all age groups—higher than the bottom-up uptake rates. The discrepancy was largest for toddlers with factors up to 7–15 depending on the congener. Despite different elimination half-lives of the four congeners, the age–concentration trends showed no increase in concentration with age and were similar for all congeners. Conclusions In the bottom-up approach, PBDE uptake is underestimated; currently known pathways are not sufficient to explain measured PBDE concentrations, especially in young children. Although PBDE exposure of toddlers has declined in the past years, pre- and postnatal exposure to PBDEs has remained almost constant because the mothers’ PBDE body burden has not yet decreased substantially.

Crude oil and agricultural futures: An analysis of correlation dynamics

Correlations between oil and agricultural commodities have varied over previous decades, impacted by renewable fuels policy and turbulent economic conditions. We estimate smooth transition conditional correlation models for 12 agricultural commodities and WTI crude oil. While a structural change in correlations occurred concurrently with the introduction of biofuel policy, oil and food price levels are also key influences. High correlation between biofuel feedstocks and oil is more likely to occur when food and oil price levels are high. Correlation with oil returns is strong for biofuel feedstocks, unlike with other agricultural futures, suggesting limited contagion from energy to food markets.

Using Big Data to manage safety-related risk in the upstream oil and gas industry: A research agenda

Despite considerable effort and a broad range of new approaches to safety management over the years, the upstream oil & gas industry has been frustrated by the sector’s stubbornly high rate of injuries and fatalities. This short communication points out, however, that the industry may be in a position to make considerable progress by applying “Big Data” analytical tools to the large volumes of safety-related data that have been collected by these organizations. Toward making this case, we examine existing safety-related information management practices in the upstream oil & gas industry, and specifically note that data in this sector often tends to be highly customized, difficult to analyze using conventional quantitative tools, and frequently ignored. We then contend that the application of new Big Data kinds of analytical techniques could potentially reveal patterns and trends that have been hidden or unknown thus far, and argue that these tools could help the upstream oil & gas sector to improve its injury and fatality statistics. Finally, we offer a research agenda toward accelerating the rate at which Big Data and new analytical capabilities could play a material role in helping the industry to improve its health and safety performance.

Superhydrophobic fabrics for oil-water separation based on the metal organic charge transfer complex CuTCNAQ

This work reports on the fabrication of a superhydrophobic nylon textile based on the organic charge transfer complex CuTCNAQ (TCNAQ = 11,11,12,12-tetracyanoanthraquinodimethane). The nylon fabric that is metallized with copper undergoes a spontaneous chemical reaction with TCNAQ dissolved in acetonitrile to form nanorods of CuTCNAQ that are intertwined over the entire surface of the fabric. This creates the necessary micro and nanoscale roughness that is required for the Cassie-Baxter state thereby achieving a superhydrophobic/superoleophilic surface without the need for a fluorinated surface. The material is characterised with SEM, FT-IR and XPS spectroscopy and investigated for its ability to separate oil and water in two modes, namely under gravity and as an absorbent. It is found that the fabric can separate dichloromethane, olive oil and crude oil from water and in fact reduce the water content of the oil during the separation process. The fabric is reusable and tolerant to conditions such as seawater, hydrochloric acid and extensive time periods on the shelf. Given that CuTCNAQ is a copper based semiconductor may also open up the possibility of other applications in areas such as photocatalysis and antibacterial applications.

Evaluation of oil production from oil palm empty fruit bunch by oleaginous micro-organisms

Oil palm empty fruit bunch (EFB) is a readily available, lignocellulosic biomass that has potential to be utilized as a carbon substrate for microbial oil production. In order to evaluate the production of microbial oil from EFB, a technical study was performed through the cultivation of oleaginous micro-organisms (Rhodotorula mucilaginosa, Aspergillus oryzae, and Mucor plumbeus) on EFB hydrolyzates. EFB hydrolyzates were prepared through dilute acid pre-treatment of the biomass, where the liquid fraction of pre-treatment was detoxified and used as an EFB liquid hydrolyzate (EFBLH). The solid residue was enzymatically hydrolyzed prior to be used as an EFB enzymatic hydrolyzate (EFBEH). The highest oil concentrations were obtained from M. plumbeus (1.9 g/L of oil on EFBLH and 4.7 g/L of oil on EFBEH). In order to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale microbial oil production, a techno-economic study was performed based on the oil yields of M. plumbeus per hectare of plantation, followed by the estimation of the feedstock cost for oil production. Other oil palm biomasses (frond and trunk) were also included in this study, as it could potentially improve the economics of large-scale microbial oil production. Microbial oil from oil palm biomasses was estimated to potentially increase oil production in the palm oil industry up to 25%, at a cheaper feedstock cost. The outcome of this study demonstrates the potential integration of microbial oil production from oil palm biomasses with existing palm oil industry (biodiesel, food and oleochemicals production), that could potentially enhance sustainability and profitability of microbial oil production.

Microbial oil production from sugarcane bagasse hydrolysates by oleaginous yeast and filamentous fungi

This study investigated the potential use of sugarcane bagasse as a feedstock for oil production through microbial cultivation. Bagasse was subjected to dilute acid pretreatment with 0.4 wt% H2SO4 (in liquid) at a solid/liquid ratio of 1:6 (wt/wt) at 170 °C for 15 min, followed by enzymatic hydrolysis of solid residue. The liquid fractions of the pretreatment process and the enzymatic hydrolysis process were detoxified and used as liquid hydrolysate (SCBLH) and enzymatic hydrolysate (SCBEH) for the microbial oil production by oleaginous yeast (Rhodotorula mucilaginosa) and filamentous fungi (Aspergillus oryzae and Mucor plumbeus). The results showed that all strains were able to grow and produce oil from bagasse hydrolysates. The highest oil concentrations produced from bagasse hydrolysates were by M. plumbeus at 1.59 g/L (SCBLH) and 4.74 g/L (SCBEH). The microbial oils obtained have similar fatty acid compositions to vegetable oils, indicating that the oil can be used for the production of second generation biodiesel. On the basis of oil yields obtained by M. plumbeus, from 10 million t (wet weight) of bagasse generated annually from sugar mills in Australia, it is estimated that the total biodiesel that could be produced would be equivalent to about 9% of Queensland’s diesel consumption.

Channelled porous TiO2 synthesized with a water-in-oil microemulsion

Porous titanium dioxide synthesized with a bicontinuous surfactant template is a promising method that leads to a high active surface area electrode. The template used is based on a water/isooctane/dioctyl sodium sulfosuccinate salt together with lecithin. Several parameters were varied during the synthesis to understand and optimize channel formation mechanisms. The material is patterned in stacked conical channels, widening towards the centre of the grains. The active surface area increased by 116% when the concentration of alkoxide precursors was decreased and increased by 241% when the template formation temperature was decreased to 10C. Increasing the oil phase viscosity tends to widen the pore aperture, thus decreasing the overall active surface area. Changing the phase proportions alters the microemulsion integrity and disrupts channel formation.