Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection

The inquiries to return predictability are traditionally limited to conditional mean, while literature on portfolio selection is replete with moment-based analysis with up to the fourth moment being considered. This paper develops a distribution-based framework for both return prediction and portfolio selection. More specifically, a time-varying return distribution is modeled through quantile regressions and copulas, using quantile regressions to extract information in marginal distributions and copulas to capture dependence structure. A preference function which captures higher moments is proposed for portfolio selection. An empirical application highlights the additional information provided by the distributional approach which cannot be captured by the traditional moment-based methods.

Identification of bone morphogenetic proteins 2 and 4 in commercial demineralized freeze-dried bone allograft preparations : pilot study

BACKGROUND: Demineralized freeze-dried bone allografts (DFDBAs) have been proposed as a useful adjunct in periodontal therapy to induce periodontal regeneration through the induction of new bone formation. The presence of bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) within the demineralized matrix has been proposed as a possible mechanism through which DFDBA may exert its biologic effect. However, in recent years, the predictability of results using DFDBA has been variable and has led to its use being questioned. One reason for the variability in tissue response may be attributed to differences in the processing of DFDBA, which may lead to loss of activity of any bioactive substances within the DFDBA matrix. Therefore, the purpose of this investigation was to determine whether there are detectable levels of bone morphogenetic proteins in commercial DFDBA preparations. METHODS: A single preparation of DFDBA was obtained from three commercial sources. Each preparation was studied in triplicate. Proteins within the DFDBA samples were first extracted with 4M guanidinium HCI for seven days at 40 degrees celsius and the residue was further extracted with 4M guanidinium HCL/EDTA for seven days at 40 degrees celsius. Two anti-human BMP-2 and -4 antibodies were used for the detection of the presence of BMP's in the extracts. RESULTS: Neither BMP-2 nor BMP-4 was detected in any of the extracts. When recombinant human BMP-2 and -4 were added throughout the extraction process of DFDBA extraction, not only were intact proteins detected but smaller molecular weight fragments were also noted in the extract. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that all of the DFDBA samples tested had no detectable amounts of BMP-2 and -4. In addition, an unknown substance present in the DFDBA may be responsible for degradation of whatever BMPs might be present.

Extracting deck trend to plan descent trajectory for safe landing of UAVs

This paper outlines a feasible scheme to extract deck trend when a rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (RUAV)approaches an oscillating deck. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) is de- veloped to fuse measurements from multiple sensors for effective estimation of the unknown deck heave motion. Also, a recursive Prony Analysis (PA) procedure is proposed to implement online curve-fitting of the estimated heave mo- tion. The proposed PA constructs an appropriate model with parameters identified using the forgetting factor recursive least square (FFRLS)method. The deck trend is then extracted by separating dominant modes. Performance of the proposed procedure is evaluated using real ship motion data, and simulation results justify the suitability of the proposed method into safe landing of RUAVs operating in a maritime environment.

The open window of susceptibility to infection after acute exercise in healthy young male elite athletes

The 'open window' theory is characterised by short term suppression of the immune system following an acute bout of endurance exercise. This window of opportunity may allow for an increase in susceptibility to upper respiratory illness (URI). Many studies have indicated a decrease in immune function in response to exercise. However, many studies do not indicate changes in immune function past 2 hours after the completion of exercise, consequently failing to determine whether these immune cells numbers, or importantly their function, return to resting levels before the start of another bout of exercise. Ten male 'A' grade cyclists (age 24.2 +/- 5.3 years; body mass 73.8 +/- 6.5 kg; VO(2peak) 65.9 +/- 7.1 mL.kg(-1).min(-1)) exercised for two hours at 90% of their second ventilatory threshold. Blood samples were collected pre-, immediately post-, 2 hours, 4 hours, 6 hours, 8 hours, and 24 hours post-exercise. Immune variables examined included total leukocyte counts, neutrophil function (oxidative burst and phagocytic function), lymphocyte subset counts (CD4(+), CD8(+), and CD16(+)/56(+)), natural killer cell activity (NKCA), and NK phenotypes (CD56(dim)CD16(+), and CD56(bright)CD16(-)). There was a significant increase in total lymphocyte numbers from pre-, to immediately post-exercise (p<0.01), followed by a significant decrease at 2 hours post-exercise (p<0.001). CD4(+) T-cell counts significantly increased from pre-exercise, to 4 hours post- (p<0.05), and 6 hours post-exercise (p<0.01). However, NK (CD16(+)/56(+)) cell numbers decreased significantly from pre-exercise to 4 h post-exercise (p<0.05), to 6 h post-exercise (p<0.05), and to 8 h post-exercise (p<0.01). In contrast, CD56(bright)CD16- NK cell counts significantly increased from pre-exercise to immediately post-exercise (p<0.01). Neutrophil oxidative burst activity did not significantly change in response to exercise, while neutrophil cell counts significantly increased from pre-exercise, to immediately post-exercise (p<0.05), and 2 hours post-exercise (p<0.01), and remained significantly above pre-exercise levels to 8 hours post-exercise (p<0.01). Neutrophil phagocytic function significantly decreased from 2 hours post-exercise, to 6 hours post- (p<0.05), and 24 hours post-exercise (p<0.05). Finally, eosinophil cell counts significantly increased from 2 hours post to 6 hours post- (p<0.05), and 8 hours post-exercise (p<0.05). This is the first study to show changes in immunological variables up to 8 hours post-exercise, including significant NK cell suppression, NK cell phenotype changes, a significant increase in total lymphocyte counts, and a significant increase in eosinophil cell counts all at 8 hours post-exercise. Suppression of total lymphocyte counts, NK cell counts and neutrophil phagocytic function following exercise may be important in the increased rate of URI in response to regular intense endurance training.

Optimization of human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) L1 expression in plants: Comparison of the suitability of different HPV-16 L1 gene variants and different cell-compartment localization

Virus-like particle-based vaccines for high-risk human papillomaviruses (HPVs) appear to have great promise; however, cell culture-derived vaccines will probably be very expensive. The optimization of expression of different codon-optimized versions of the HPV-16 L1 capsid protein gene in plants has been explored by means of transient expression from a novel suite of Agrobacterium tumefaciens binary expression vectors, which allow targeting of recombinant protein to the cytoplasm, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) or chloroplasts. A gene resynthesized to reflect human codon usage expresses better than the native gene, which expresses better than a plant-optimized gene. Moreover, chloroplast localization allows significantly higher levels of accumulation of L1 protein than does cytoplasmic localization, whilst ER retention was least successful. High levels of L1 (>17% total soluble protein) could be produced via transient expression: the protein assembled into higher-order structures visible by electron microscopy, and a concentrated extract was highly immunogenic in mice after subcutaneous injection and elicited high-titre neutralizing antibodies. Transgenic tobacco plants expressing a human codon-optimized gene linked to a chloroplast-targeting signal expressed L1 at levels up to 11% of the total soluble protein. These are the highest levels of HPV L1 expression reported for plants: these results, and the excellent immunogenicity of the product, significantly improve the prospects of making a conventional HPV vaccine by this means. © 2007 SGM.

A protocol for the rapid isolation of full geminivirus genomes from dried plant tissue

A high-throughput method of isolating and cloning geminivirus genomes from dried plant material, by combining an Extract-n-Amp™-based DNA isolation technique with rolling circle amplification (RCA) of viral DNA, is presented. Using this method an attempt was made to isolate and clone full geminivirus genomes/genome components from 102 plant samples, including dried leaves stored at room temperature for between 6 months and 10 years, with an average hands-on-time to RCA-ready DNA of 15 min per 20 samples. While storage of dried leaves for up to 6 months did not appreciably decrease cloning success rates relative to those achieved with fresh samples, efficiency of the method decreased with increasing storage time. However, it was still possible to clone virus genomes from 47% of 10-year-old samples. To illustrate the utility of this simple method for high-throughput geminivirus diversity studies, six Maize streak virus genomes, an Abutilon mosaic virus DNA-B component and the DNA-A component of a previously unidentified New Word begomovirus species were fully sequenced. Genomic clones of the 69 other viruses were verified as such by end sequencing. This method should be extremely useful for the study of any circular DNA plant viruses with genome component lengths smaller than the maximum size amplifiable by RCA. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transient expression of Human papillomavirus type 16 L1 protein in Nicotiana benthamiana using an infectious tobamovirus vector

A Tobacco mosaic virus (TMV)-derived vector was used to express a native Human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) L1 gene in Nicotiana benthamiana by means of infectious in vitro RNA transcripts inoculated onto N. benthamiana plants. HPV-16 L1 protein expression was quantitated by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) after concentration of the plant extract. We estimated that the L1 product yield was 20-37 μg/kg of fresh leaf material. The L1 protein in the concentrated extract was antigenically characterised using the neutralising and conformation-specific Mabs H16:V5 and H16:E70, which bound to the plant-produced protein. Particles observed by transmission electron microscopy were mainly capsomers but virus-like particles (VLPs) similar to those produced in other systems were also present. Immunisation of rabbits with the concentrated plant extract induced a weak immune response. This is the first report of the successful expression of an HPV L1 gene in plants using a plant virus vector. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Plant-produced cottontail rabbit papillomavirus L1 protein protects against tumor challenge : A proof-of-concept study

The native cottontail rabbit papillomavirus (CRPV) L1 capsid protein gene was expressed transgenically via Agrobacterium tumefaciens transformation and transiently via a tobacco mosaic virus (TMV) vector in Nicotiana spp. L1 protein was detected in concentrated plant extracts at concentrations up to 1.0 mg/kg in transgenic plants and up to 0.4 mg/kg in TMV-infected plants. The protein did not detectably assemble into viruslike particles; however, immunoelectron microscopy showed presumptive pentamer aggregates, and extracted protein reacted with conformation-specific and neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. Rabbits were injected with concentrated protein extract with Freund's incomplete adjuvant. All sera reacted with baculovirus-produced CRPV L1; however, they did not detectably neutralize infectivity in an in vitro assay. Vaccinated rabbits were, however, protected against wart development on subsequent challenge with live virus. This is the first evidence that a plant-derived papillomavirus vaccine is protective in an animal model and is a proof of concept for human papillomavirus vaccines produced in plants. Copyright © 2006, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Effect of a novel compound from Lycopodium obscurum L. on osteogenic activity of osteoblasts in vitro

We investigated the potential of an extract of Lycopodium obscurum L.; stigmastane-3-oxo-21-oic acid (SA), to enhance osteogensis of mouse osteoblastic MC3T3-E1 cells. SA at a concentration of 16 µM was found to have no significant effect upon the viability of the cells, thus concentrations of 8 µM and 16 µM of SA were used in all further experiments. Both concentrations of SA had an inhibitory affect upon alkaline phosphatase activity (ALP) after 8 days incubation, however, after 16 days activity was restored to control levels. However Alizarin red S staining showed increased levels of mineralization for both concentrations after 16 days culture. Real time PCR showed inhibition of genes Runx2 and Osterix genes responsible for the up-regulation of ALP. However early time point (8 days) up-regulation of bone matrix mineralization genes OPN and OCN, and late time point (16 days) up-regulation of both Jun-D and Fra-2 mRNA expression was significantly enhanced. These results suggest a potential me-chanism of SA in enhancing bone fracture healing is through the up-regulating bone matrix minera-lization.

Learning personalized tag ontology from user tagging information

The cross-sections of the Social Web and the Semantic Web has put folksonomy in the spot light for its potential in overcoming knowledge acquisition bottleneck and providing insight for "wisdom of the crowds". Folksonomy which comes as the results of collaborative tagging activities has provided insight into user's understanding about Web resources which might be useful for searching and organizing purposes. However, collaborative tagging vocabulary poses some challenges since tags are freely chosen by users and may exhibit synonymy and polysemy problem. In order to overcome these challenges and boost the potential of folksonomy as emergence semantics we propose to consolidate the diverse vocabulary into a consolidated entities and concepts. We propose to extract a tag ontology by ontology learning process to represent the semantics of a tagging community. This paper presents a novel approach to learn the ontology based on the widely used lexical database WordNet. We present personalization strategies to disambiguate the semantics of tags by combining the opinion of WordNet lexicographers and users’ tagging behavior together. We provide empirical evaluations by using the semantic information contained in the ontology in a tag recommendation experiment. The results show that by using the semantic relationships on the ontology the accuracy of the tag recommender has been improved.

Cytokine synthesis by intestinal intraepithelial lymphocytes. Both gamma/delta T cell receptor-positive and alpha/beta T cell receptor-positive T cells in the G1 phase of cell cycle produce IFN-gamma and IL-5

Murine intestinal intraepithelial lymphocytes (IEL) have been shown to contain subsets of alpha/beta TCR+ and gamma/delta TCR+ T cells that spontaneously produce cytokines such as IFN-gamma and IL-5. We have now determined the nature and cell cycle stage of these cytokine-producing T lymphocytes in EIL by using IFN-gamma- and IL-5-specific ELISPOT assay, cytokine-specific mRNA-cDNA dot-blot hybridization and polymerase chain reaction, and flow cytometry (FACS) for DNA analysis. When CD3+ T cells from IEL of normal C3H/HeN mice were separated into low and high density fractions by discontinuous Percoll gradients, IFN-gamma and IL-5 spot-forming cells were only found in the former population. Analysis of mRNA for these cytokines by both IFN-gamma- and IL-5-specific dot-blot hybridization and polymerase chain reaction revealed that higher levels of message for IFN-gamma and IL-5 were also seen in the low density fraction. However, cell cycle analysis of these two fractions by FACS using propidium iodide showed a similar pattern of cell cycle stages in both low and high density populations (G0 + G1 approximately 96 to 98% and S/G2 + M approximately 2 to 4%). Finally, mRNA from gamma/delta TCR+ and alpha/beta TCR+ T cells in both low and high density fractions of IEL were analyzed for IFN-gamma and IL-5 message by polymerase chain reaction. After 35 cycles of amplification, both gamma/delta TCR+ and alpha/beta TCR+ T cells in the low density fraction expressed higher levels of message for these two cytokines when compared with the high density population. These results have now shown that both gamma/delta and alpha/beta TCR+ IEL can be separated into low and high density subsets and both fractions possess a similar stage of cell cycle. However, only the low density cells (in G1 phase) of both gamma/delta and alpha/beta TCR types possess increased cytokine-specific mRNA and produce the cytokines IFN-gamma and IL-5. Our results suggest that alpha/beta TCR+ and gamma/delta TCR+ IEL can produce cytokines without cell proliferation.

Candidate radial-inflow turbines and high-density working fluids for geothermal power systems

Optimisation of Organic Rankine Cycles (ORCs) for binary-cycle geothermal applications could play a major role in the competitiveness of low to moderate temperature geothermal resources. Part of this optimisation process is matching cycles to a given resource such that power output can be maximised. Two major and largely interrelated components of the cycle are the working fluid and the turbine. Both components need careful consideration. Due to the temperature differences in geothermal resources a one-size-fits-all approach to surface power infrastructure is not appropriate. Furthermore, the traditional use of steam as a working fluid does not seem practical due to the low temperatures of many resources. A variety of organic fluids with low boiling points may be utilised as ORC working fluids in binary power cycle loops. Due to differences in thermodynamic properties, certain fluids are able to extract more heat from a given resource than others over certain temperature and pressure ranges. This enables the tailoring of power cycle infrastructure to best match the geothermal resource through careful selection of the working fluid and turbine design optimisation to yield the optimum overall cycle performance. This paper presents the rationale for the use of radial-inflow turbines for ORC applications and the preliminary design of several radial-inflow turbines based on a selection of promising ORC cycles using five different high-density working fluids: R134a, R143a, R236fa, R245fa and n-Pentane at sub- or trans-critical conditions. Numerous studies published compare a variety of working fluids for various ORC configurations. However, there is little information specifically pertaining to the design and implementation of ORCs using realistic radial turbine designs in terms of pressure ratios, inlet pressure, rotor size and rotational speed. Preliminary 1D analysis leads to the generation of turbine designs for the various cycles with similar efficiencies (77%) but large differences in dimensions (139289 mm rotor diameter). The highest performing cycle (R134a) was found to produce 33% more net power from a 150°C resource flowing at 10 kg/s than the lowest performing cycle (n-Pentane).

Anomalous event detection using a semi-two dimensional hidden Markov model

The rapid increase in the deployment of CCTV systems has led to a greater demand for algorithms that are able to process incoming video feeds. These algorithms are designed to extract information of interest for human operators. During the past several years, there has been a large effort to detect abnormal activities through computer vision techniques. Typically, the problem is formulated as a novelty detection task where the system is trained on normal data and is required to detect events which do not fit the learned `normal' model. Many researchers have tried various sets of features to train different learning models to detect abnormal behaviour in video footage. In this work we propose using a Semi-2D Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to model the normal activities of people. The outliers of the model with insufficient likelihood are identified as abnormal activities. Our Semi-2D HMM is designed to model both the temporal and spatial causalities of the crowd behaviour by assuming the current state of the Hidden Markov Model depends not only on the previous state in the temporal direction, but also on the previous states of the adjacent spatial locations. Two different HMMs are trained to model both the vertical and horizontal spatial causal information. Location features, flow features and optical flow textures are used as the features for the model. The proposed approach is evaluated using the publicly available UCSD datasets and we demonstrate improved performance compared to other state of the art methods.

Monitoring smartphones for anomaly detection

In this paper we demonstrate how to monitor a smartphone running Symbian operating system and Windows Mobile in order to extract features for anomaly detection. These features are sent to a remote server because running a complex intrusion detection system on this kind of mobile device still is not feasible due to capability and hardware limitations. We give examples on how to compute relevant features and introduce the top ten applications used by mobile phone users based on a study in 2005. The usage of these applications is recorded by a monitoring client and visualized. Additionally, monitoring results of public and self-written malwares are shown. For improving monitoring client performance, Principal Component Analysis was applied which lead to a decrease of about 80 of the amount of monitored features.

Using a pharmacokinetic model to interpret biomonitoring data of PBDEs in the Australian population

From human biomonitoring data that are increasingly collected in the United States, Australia, and in other countries from large-scale field studies, we obtain snap-shots of concentration levels of various persistent organic pollutants (POPs) within a cross section of the population at different times. Not only can we observe the trends within this population with time, but we can also gain information going beyond the obvious time trends. By combining the biomonitoring data with pharmacokinetic modeling, we can re-construct the time-variant exposure to individual POPs, determine their intrinsic elimination half-lives in the human body, and predict future levels of POPs in the population. Different approaches have been employed to extract information from human biomonitoring data. Pharmacokinetic (PK) models were combined with longitudinal data1, with single2 or multiple3 average concentrations of a cross-sectional data (CSD), or finally with multiple CSD with or without empirical exposure data4. In the latter study, for the first time, the authors based their modeling outputs on two sets of CSD and empirical exposure data, which made it possible that their model outputs were further constrained due to the extensive body of empirical measurements. Here we use a PK model to analyze recent levels of PBDE concentrations measured in the Australian population. In this study, we are able to base our model results on four sets5-7 of CSD; we focus on two PBDE congeners that have been shown3,5,8-9 to differ in intake rates and half-lives with BDE-47 being associated with high intake rates and a short half-life and BDE-153 with lower intake rates and a longer half-life. By fitting the model to PBDE levels measured in different age groups in different years, we determine the level of intake of BDE-47 and BDE-153, as well as the half-lives of these two chemicals in the Australian population.