Bayesian predictive modeling and comparison of oil samples

Statistical comparison of oil samples is an integral part of oil spill identification, which deals with the process of linking an oil spill with its source of origin. In current practice, a frequentist hypothesis test is often used to evaluate evidence in support of a match between a spill and a source sample. As frequentist tests are only able to evaluate evidence against a hypothesis but not in support of it, we argue that this leads to unsound statistical reasoning. Moreover, currently only verbal conclusions on a very coarse scale can be made about the match between two samples, whereas a finer quantitative assessment would often be preferred. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian predictive approach for evaluating the similarity between the chemical compositions of two oil samples. We derive the underlying statistical model from some basic assumptions on modeling assays in analytical chemistry, and to further facilitate and improve numerical evaluations, we develop analytical expressions for the key elements of Bayesian inference for this model. The approach is illustrated with both simulated and real data and is shown to have appealing properties in comparison with both standard frequentist and Bayesian approaches

A novel near-infrared spectroscopy and chemometrics method for rapid analysis of several chemical components and antioxidant activity of mint (mentha haplocalyx briq.) samples

A novel near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) method has been researched and developed for the simultaneous analyses of the chemical components and associated properties of mint (Mentha haplocalyx Briq.) tea samples. The common analytes were: total polysaccharide content, total flavonoid content, total phenolic content, and total antioxidant activity. To resolve the NIRS data matrix for such analyses, least squares support vector machines was found to be the best chemometrics method for prediction, although it was closely followed by the radial basis function/partial least squares model. Interestingly, the commonly used partial least squares was unsatisfactory in this case. Additionally, principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were able to distinguish the mint samples according to their four geographical provinces of origin, and this was further facilitated with the use of the chemometrics classification methods-K-nearest neighbors, linear discriminant analysis, and partial least squares discriminant analysis. In general, given the potential savings with sampling and analysis time as well as with the costs of special analytical reagents required for the standard individual methods, NIRS offered a very attractive alternative for the simultaneous analysis of mint samples.

Electrochemical mechanism of eugenol at a Cu doped gold nanoparticles modified glassy carbon electrode and its analytical application in food samples

A simple one-step electrodeposition method was used to construct a glassy carbon electrode (GCE), which has been modified with Cu doped gold nanoparticles (GNPs), i.e. a Cu@AuNPs/GCE. This electrode was characterized with the use of scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques. The eugenol was electrocatalytically oxidized at the Cu@AuNPs/GCE. At this electrode, in comparison with the behavior at the GCE alone, the corresponding oxidation peak current was enhanced and the shift of the oxidation potentials to lower values was observed. Electrochemical behavior of eugenol at the Cu@AuNPs/GCE was investigated with the use of the cyclic voltammetry (CV) technique, and additionally, in order to confirm the electrochemical reaction mechanism for o-methoxy phenols, CVs for catechol, guaiacol and vanillin were investigated consecutively. Based on this work, an electrochemical reaction mechanism for o-methoxy phenols was suggested, and in addition, the above Cu@AuNPs/GCE was successfully employed for the analysis of eugenol in food samples.

A Model to Estimate the Population Contributing to the Wastewater Using Samples Collected on Census Day

An important uncertainty when estimating per capita consumption of, for example, illicit drugs by means of wastewater analysis (sometimes referred to as “sewage epidemiology”) relates to the size and variability of the de facto population in the catchment of interest. In the absence of a day-specific direct population count any indirect surrogate model to estimate population size lacks a standard to assess associated uncertainties. Therefore, the objective of this study was to collect wastewater samples at a unique opportunity, that is, on a census day, as a basis for a model to estimate the number of people contributing to a given wastewater sample. Mass loads for a wide range of pharmaceuticals and personal care products were quantified in influents of ten sewage treatment plants (STP) serving populations ranging from approximately 3500 to 500 000 people. Separate linear models for population size were estimated with the mass loads of the different chemical as the explanatory variable: 14 chemicals showed good, linear relationships, with highest correlations for acesulfame and gabapentin. De facto population was then estimated through Bayesian inference, by updating the population size provided by STP staff (prior knowledge) with measured chemical mass loads. Cross validation showed that large populations can be estimated fairly accurately with a few chemical mass loads quantified from 24-h composite samples. In contrast, the prior knowledge for small population sizes cannot be improved substantially despite the information of multiple chemical mass loads. In the future, observations other than chemical mass loads may improve this deficit, since Bayesian inference allows including any kind of information relating to population size.

Utility of temporal artery biopsy samples for genome-wide analysis of giant cell arteritis

Giant Cell Arteritis (GCA) is the most common vasculitis affecting the elderly. Archived formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) temporal artery biopsy (TAB) specimens potentially represent a valuable resource for large-scale genetic analysis of this disease. FFPE TAB samples were obtained from 12 patients with GCA. Extracted TAB DNA was assessed by real time PCR before restoration using the Illumina HD FFPE Restore Kit. Paired FFPE-blood samples were genotyped on the Illumina OmniExpress FFPE microarray. The FFPE samples that passed stringent quality control measures had a mean genotyping success of >97%. When compared with their matching peripheral blood DNA, the mean discordant heterozygote and homozygote single nucleotide polymorphisms calls were 0.0028 and 0.0003, respectively, which is within the accepted tolerance of reproducibility. This work demonstrates that it is possible to successfully obtain high-quality microarray-based genotypes FFPE TAB samples and that this data is similar to that obtained from peripheral blood.

Long-term effect of childhood liver transplantation on body cell mass

Malnutrition is common in end-stage liver disease, but a correction after transplantation is expected. Body cell mass (BCM) assessment using total body potassium (TBK) measurements is considered the gold standard for assessing nutritional status. The aim of this study was to examine the BCM and, therefore, nutritional status of long-term survivors after childhood liver transplantation. © 2014 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Long-term growth and anthropometry after childhood liver transplantation

Objectives: To describe longitudinal height, weight, and body mass index changes up to 15 years after childhood liver transplantation. Study design: Retrospective chart review of patients who underwent liver transplant from 1985-2004 was performed. Subjects were age <18 years at transplant, survived ≥5 years, with at least 2 recorded measurements, of which one was ≥5 years post-transplant. Measurements were recorded pre-transplant, 1, 5, 10, and 15 years later. Results: Height and weight data were available in 98 and 104 patients, respectively; 47% were age <2 years at transplant; 58% were Australian, and the rest were from Japan. Height recovery continued for at least 10 years to reach the 26th percentile (Z-score -0.67) 15 years after transplant. Australians had better growth recovery and attained 47th percentile (Z-score -0.06) at 15 years. Weight recovery was most marked in the first year and continued for 15 years even in well-nourished children. Growth impaired and malnourished children at transplant exhibited the best growth, but remained significantly shorter and lighter even 15 years later. No effect of sex or age at transplant was noted on height or weight recovery. Post-transplant factors significantly impact growth recovery and likely caused the dichotomous growth recovery between Australian and Japanese children; 9% (9/98) of patients were overweight on body mass index calculations at 10-15 years but none were obese. Conclusions: After liver transplant, children can expect ongoing height and weight recovery for at least 10-15 years. Growth impairment at transplant and post-transplant care significantly impact long-term growth recovery. Copyright © 2013 Mosby Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of the performance of two commercial genome-wide association study genotyping platforms in Han Chinese samples

Most genome-wide association studies to date have been performed in populations of European descent, but there is increasing interest in expanding these studies to other populations. The performance of genotyping chips in Asian populations is not well established. Therefore, we sought to test the performance of widely used fixed-marker, genome-wide association studies chips in the Han Chinese population. Non-HapMap Chinese samples (n = 396) were genotyped using the Illumina OmniExpress and Affymetrix 6.0 platforms, whereas a subset also were genotyped using the Immunochip. Genotyped markers from the Affymetrix 6.0 and Illumina OmniExpress were used for full genome imputation based on the HapMap 2 JPT+CHB (Japanese from Tokyo, Japan and Chinese from Beijing, China) reference panel. The concordance between markers genotypes for the three platforms was very high whether directly genotyped or genotyped and imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; .99.8% for directly genotyped and .99.5% for genotyped and imputed SNPs, respectively) were compared. The OmniExpress chip data enabled more SNPs to be imputed, particularly SNPs with minor allele frequency .5%. The OmniExpress chip achieved better coverage of HapMap SNPs than the Affymetrix 6.0 chip (73.6% vs. 65.9%, respectively, for minor allele frequency .5%). The Affymetrix 6.0 and Illumina OmniExpress chip have similar genotyping accuracy and provide similar accuracy of imputed SNPs. The OmniExpress chip however provides better coverage of Asian HapMap SNPs, although its coverage of HapMap SNPs is moderate. © 2013 Jiang et al.

The role of basic nutritional research in pediatric liver disease : an historical perspective

The advent of liver transplantation for end-stage liver disease (ESLD) in children has necessitated a major rethink in the preoperative preparation and management from simple palliative care to active directed intervention. This is particularly evident in the approach to the nutritional care of these patients with the historical understanding of the nutritional pertubations in ESLD being described from a single pediatric liver transplant center. ESLD in children is a hypermetabolic process adversely affecting nutritional status, metabolic, and non-metabolic body compartments. There is a complex dynamic process affecting metabolic activity within the metabolically active body cell mass, as well as lipid oxidation during fasting and at rest, with other factors operating in conjunction with daily activities. We have proposed that immediately ingested nutrients are a more important source of energy in patients with ESLD than in healthy children, among whom energy may be stored in various body compartments.

Body composition and components of energy expenditure in children with end-stage liver disease

Background: Better understanding of body composition and energy metabolism in pediatric liver disease may provide a scientific basis for improved medical therapy aimed at achieving optimal nutrition, slowing progression to end-stage liver disease (ESLD), and improving the outcome of liver transplantation. Methods: Twenty-one children less than 2 years of age with ESLD awaiting liver transplantation and 15 healthy, aged-matched controls had body compartment analysis using a four compartment model (body cell mass, fat mass, extracellular water, and extracellular solids). Subjects also had measurements of resting energy expenditure (REE) and respiratory quotient (RQ) by indirect calorimetry. Nine patients and 15 control subjects also had measurements of total energy expenditure (TEE) using doubly labelled water. Results: Mean weights and heights were similar in the two groups. Compared with control subjects, children with ESLD had higher relative mean body cell mass (33 ± 2% vs 29 ± 1% of body weight, P < 0.05), but had similar fat mass, extracellular water, and extracellular solid compartments (18% vs 20%, 41% vs 38%, and 7% vs 13% of body weight respectively). Compared with control subjects, children with ESLD had 27% higher mean REE/body weight (0.285 ± 0.013 vs 0.218. ± 0.013 mJ/kg/24h, P < 0.001), 16% higher REE/unit cell mass (P < 0.05); and lower mean RQ (P < 0.05). Mean TEE of patients was 4.70 ± 0.49 mJ/24h vs 3.19 ± 0.76 in controls, (P < 0.01). Conclusions: In children, ESLD is a hypermetabolic state adversely affecting the relationship between metabolic and non-metabolic body compartments. There is increased metabolic activity within the body cell mass with excess lipid oxidation during fasting and at rest. These findings have implications for the design of appropriate nutritional therapy.

Acute liver failure in children : a regional experience

Objective: To review the outcome of acute liver failure (ALF) and the effect of liver transplantation in children in Australia. Methodology: A retrospective review was conducted of all paediatric patients referred with acute liver failure between 1985 and 2000 to the Queensland Liver Transplant Service, a paediatric liver transplant centre based at the Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, that is one of three paediatric transplant centres in Australia. Results: Twenty-six patients were referred with ALF. Four patients did not require transplantation and recovered with medical therapy while two were excluded because of irreversible neurological changes and died. Of the 20 patients considered for transplant, three refused for social and/or religious reasons, with 17 patients listed for transplantation. One patient recovered spontaneously and one died before receiving a transplant. There were 15 transplants of which 40% (6/15) were < 2 years old. Sixty-seven per cent (10/15) survived > 1 month after transplantation. Forty per cent (6/15) survived more than 6 months after transplant. There were only four long term survivors after transplant for ALF (27%). Overall, 27% (6/22) of patients referred with ALF survived. Of the 16 patients that died, 44% (7/16) were from neurological causes. Most of these were from cerebral oedema but two patients transplanted for valproate hepatotoxicity died from neurological disease despite good graft function. Conclusions: Irreversible neurological disease remains a major cause of death in children with ALF. We recommend better patient selection and early referral and transfer to a transplant centre before onset of irreversible neurological disease to optimize outcome of children transplanted for ALF.

Value of total body potassium in assessing the nutritional status of children with end-stage liver disease

Malnutrition is a common problem in children with end-stage liver disease (ESLD), and accurate assessment of nutritional status is essential in managing these children. In a retrospective study, we compared nutritional assessment by anthropometry with that by body composition. We analyzed all consecutive measurements of total body potassium (TBK, n = 186) of children less than 3 years old with ESLD awaiting transplantation found in our database. The TBK values obtained by whole body counting of 40K were compared with reference TRK values of healthy children. The prevalence of malnutrition, as assessed by weight (weight Z score < -2) was 28%, which was significantly lower (chi-square test, p < 0.0001) than the prevalence of malnutrition (76%) assessed by TBK (< 90% of expected TRK for age). These results demonstrated that body weight underestimated the nutritional deficit and stressed the importance of measuring body composition as part of assessing nutritional status of children with ESLD.

Growth hormone resistance and somatomedins in children with end-stage liver disease awaiting transplantation

Background: The success of orthotopic liver transplantation as treatment for end-stage liver disease has prompted investigation of strategies to maintain or improve nutrition and growth in children awaiting transplantation, because malnutrition is an adverse prognostic factor. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of recombinant human growth hormone therapy on body composition and indices of liver function in patients awaiting transplant. Methods: The study was designed as a placebo- controlled, double-blind, crossover trial. Patients received 0.2 U/kg growth hormone, subcutaneously, or placebo daily for 28 days during two treatment periods, separated by a 2-week washout period. Ten patients (mean age, 3.06 ± 1.15 years; range, 0.51-11.65 years, five men), with extrahepatic biliary atresia (n = 8) or two with Alagille's syndrome (n = 2), with end-stage liver disease, completed the trial while awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation. Height, weight, total body potassium, total body fat, resting energy expenditure, respiratory quotient, hematologic and multiple biochemical profile, number of albumin infusions, insulin-like growth factor-1 and 1, growth hormone binding protein (GHBP), and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein (IGFBP-3) were measured at the beginning and end of each treatment period. Results: Growth hormone treatment was associated with a significant decline in serum bilirubin (-34.6 ± 16.5 μmol/l vs. 18.2 ± 11.59 μmol/l; p < 0.02) but there was no significant effect on any anthropometric or body composition measurements, or on any biochemical or hematologic parameters. Conclusions: These children with end-stage liver disease displayed growth hormone resistance, particularly in relation to the somatomedin axis. Exogenous growth hormone administration may be of limited value in these patients

Cytomegalovirus infection after liver transplantation in children

Post-liver transplant cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection (seroconversion or virus isolation) and CMV disease (infection plus clinical signs and symptoms) were studied in relation to pretransplant recipient and donor serology, age, nutritional status and the effect of paediatric versus adult (reduced size) grafts. Of 70 children receiving 79 transplants, 26 (37%) had evidence of CMV infection, and eight (11.5%) had evidence of CMV disease, four of whom died. The primary infection rate (where the recipients were CMV negative) was 71% with mortality of 7% with most receiving a CMV-positive graft. The active secondary infection rate (reactivation or reinfection, where the recipients were CMV positive) was 60% with mortality of 12.5%. No significant differences in infection on disease rates were found comparing malnourished versus well-nourished patients, or between those who received whole or reduced-size grafts. The high prevalence of CMV infections supports the view that clinical signs alone are inadequate to direct investigations for CMV. Both primary and active secondary CMV infection can result in serious morbidity and mortality in children receiving liver transplants. These data do not support the strategy of providing immunoprophylaxis to seronegative recipients only, at least in paediatric liver transplantation.