Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Report : development of a methodology for assessing variation in maintenance and rehabilitation costs

In the previous research CRC CI 2001-010-C “Investment Decision Framework for Infrastructure Asset Management”, a method for assessing variation in cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation was developed. The variability of pavement strength collected from a 92km national highway was used in the analysis to demonstrate the concept. Further analysis was conducted to identify critical input parameters that significantly affect the prediction of road deterioration. In addition to pavement strength, rut depth, annual traffic loading and initial roughness were found to be critical input parameters for road deterioration. This report presents a method developed to incorporate other critical parameters in the analysis, such as unit costs, which are suspected to contribute to a certain degree to cost estimate variation. Thus, the variability of unit costs will be incorporated in this analysis. Bruce Highway located in the tropical east coast of Queensland has been identified to be the network for the analysis. This report presents a step by step methodology for assessing variation in road maintenance and rehabilitation cost estimates.

Report : stochastic analysis of road asset data for maintenance cost prediction

Reliable budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation are subjected to uncertainties and variability in road asset condition and characteristics of road users. The CRC CI research project 2003-029-C ‘Maintenance Cost Prediction for Road’ developed a method for assessing variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation. The method is based on probability-based reliable theory and statistical method. The next stage of the current project is to apply the developed method to predict maintenance/rehabilitation budgets/costs of large networks for strategic investment. The first task is to assess the variability of road data. This report presents initial results of the analysis in assessing the variability of road data. A case study of the analysis for dry non reactive soil is presented to demonstrate the concept in analysing the variability of road data for large road networks. In assessing the variability of road data, large road networks were categorised into categories with common characteristics according to soil and climatic conditions, pavement conditions, pavement types, surface types and annual average daily traffic. The probability distributions, statistical means, and standard deviation values of asset conditions and annual average daily traffic for each type were quantified. The probability distributions and the statistical information obtained in this analysis will be used to asset the variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates in later stage. Generally, we usually used mean values of asset data of each category as input values for investment analysis. The variability of asset data in each category is not taken into account. This analysis method demonstrated that it can be used for practical application taking into account the variability of road data in analysing large road networks for maintenance/rehabilitation investment analysis.

Facilities management action agenda : the Australian government and industry working together for improvement

This paper provides an overview of the Australian Government’s Facilities Management (FM) Action Agenda as announced in 2004 as a key policy plank designed to facilitate growth of the FM industry. The resulting consultation with industry leaders has seen the criterion and release in April 2005 of the FM Action Agenda’s strategic plan entitled ‘Managing the Built Environment’. This framework, representing a collaboration between the Australian Government, public and private sector stakeholders and Facility Management Association of Australia (FMA Australia) and other allied bodies, sets out to achieve the vision of a more “…productive and sustainable built environment…” through improved innovation, education and standards. The 36 month implementation phase is now underway and will take a multi-pronged approach to enhancing the recognition of the FM industry and removing impediments to its growth with a 20 point action plan across the following platforms: • Innovation – Improved appreciation of facility life cycles, and greater understanding of the key drivers of workplace productivity, and the improved application of information technology. • Education and Training – Improved access to dedicated FM education and training opportunities and creation clear career pathways into the profession. • Regulatory Reform – Explore opportunities to harmonise cross jurisdictional regulatory compliance requirements that have an efficiency impact on FM. • Sustainability – Improved utilization of existing knowledge and the development of tools and opportunities to improve the environmental performance of facilities. Additional information is available at www.fma.com.au

Identification of critical input variables for risk-based cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation

An estimation of costs for maintenance and rehabilitation is subject to variation due to the uncertainties of input parameters. This paper presents the results of an analysis to identify input parameters that affect the prediction of variation in road deterioration. Road data obtained from 1688 km of a national highway located in the tropical northeast of Queensland in Australia were used in the analysis. Data were analysed using a probability-based method, the Monte Carlo simulation technique and HDM-4’s roughness prediction model. The results of the analysis indicated that among the input parameters the variability of pavement strength, rut depth, annual equivalent axle load and initial roughness affected the variability of the predicted roughness. The second part of the paper presents an analysis to assess the variation in cost estimates due to the variability of the overall identified critical input parameters.

Towards a Rule-based matrix for evaluating distress mechanisms in bridges

One of the key issues facing public asset owners is the decision of refurbishing aged built assets. This decision requires an assessment of the “remaining service life” of the key components in a building. The remaining service life is significantly dependent upon the existing condition of the asset and future degradation patterns considering durability and functional obsolescence. Recently developed methods on Residual Service Life modelling, require sophisticated data that are not readily available. Most of the data available are in the form of reports prior to undertaking major repairs or in the form of sessional audit reports. Valuable information from these available sources can serve as bench marks for estimating the reference service life. The authors have acquired similar informations from a public asset building in Melbourne. Using these informations, the residual service life of a case study building façade has been estimated in this paper based on state-of-the-art approaches. These estimations have been evaluated against expert opinion. Though the results are encouraging it is clear that the state-of-the-art methodologies can only provide meaningful estimates provided the level and quality of data are available. This investigation resulted in the development of a new framework for maintenance that integrates the condition assessment procedures and factors influencing residual service life

HVAC system size – getting it right

There is evidence that many heating, ventilating & air conditioning (HVAC) systems, installed in larger buildings, have more capacity than is ever required to keep the occupants comfortable. This paper explores the reasons why this can occur, by examining a typical brief/design/documentation process. Over-sized HVAC systems cost more to install and operate and may not be able to control thermal comfort as well as a “right-sized” system. These impacts are evaluated, where data exists. Finally, some suggestions are developed to minimise both the extent of, and the negative impacts of, HVAC system over-sizing, for example: • Challenge “rules of thumb” and/or brief requirements which may be out of date. • Conduct an accurate load estimate, using AIRAH design data, specific to project location, and then resist the temptation to apply “safety factors • Use a load estimation program that accounts for thermal storage and diversification of peak loads for each zone and air handling system. • Select chiller sizes and staged or variable speed pumps and fans to ensure good part load performance. • Allow for unknown future tenancies by designing flexibility into the system, not by over-sizing. For example, generous sizing of distribution pipework and ductwork will allow available capacity to be redistributed. • Provide an auxiliary tenant condenser water loop to handle high load areas. • Consider using an Integrated Design Process, build an integrated load and energy use simulation model and test different operational scenarios • Use comprehensive Life Cycle Cost analysis for selection of the most optimal design solutions. This paper is an interim report on the findings of CRC-CI project 2002-051-B, Right-Sizing HVAC Systems, which is due for completion in January 2006.

Firm social, cultural and intellectual capital : strategic indicators of international client satisfaction

Despite the increasing significance of the construction industry as an emerging sector of the Australian economy, there is inadequate research performed on construction design firms in terms of theoretical and empirical foundations. Although past research has identified the barriers and success factors for firm market entry, evidence suggests that to date no research has explicitly explored the sustainability of construction design firms in international markets. SMEs and their approach to firm internationalisation differ significantly from large manufacturing firms and a vast majority of construction design firms operate as SMEs. This paper develops a sustainable business model for construction design SMEs, which rely upon the development of clear Client Following (CF) versus Market Seeking (MS) strategies to support internal firm strategic and operational management. The understanding of these strategies is vital as the application of either will shape the design management approach of firms, which would in turn impact on the sustainability of these firms in foreign markets. Long-term sustainability of firms in international markets relies heavily upon client satisfaction. Client and project team participants’ communication during various design processes has often been problematic and the added difficulty of communicating across international boundaries further compounds the problem of capturing and maintaining client’s requirements. Therefore this paper develops a model for economic sustainability of Australian construction design firms working in international markets by exploring factors that affect client satisfaction across international boundaries, through the development of business performance indicators. These include not only the critical financial capital but also other ‘softer’ indicators, namely: social, cultural and intellectual capital. These act as a firm’s measure of success and the acquisition of this type of capital will provide significant advantages to firms’ success, hence sustainability in international markets.

Evaluation of valuation of noise amelioration treatments within and outside the road reserve

In urban environments road traffic volumes are increasing and the density of living is becoming higher. As a consequence the urban community is being exposed to increasing levels of road traffic noise. It is also evident that the noise reduction potential of within-the-road-reserve treatments such as noise barriers, mounding and pavement surfacing has been exhausted. This paper presents a strategy that involves the comparison of noise ameliorative treatments both within and outside the road reserve. The noise reduction resulting from the within-the-road-reserve component of treatments has been evaluated using a leading application of the CoRTN Model, developed by the UK Department of Transport 1988 [1], and the outside road reserve treatment has been evaluated in accordance with the Australian Standard 3671, Acoustics – Road traffic noise intrusion – Building sitting and construction [5]. The evaluation of noise treatments has been undertaken using a decision support tool (DST) currently being developed under the research program conducted at RMIT University and Department of Main Roads, Queensland. The case study has been based on data from a real project in Queensland, Australia. The research described here was carried out by the Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation [9], in collaboration with Department of Main Roads, Queensland, Department of Public Works, Queensland, Arup Pty. Ltd., Queensland University of technology and RMIT University.

Risk assessment in life-cycle costing for road asset management

Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

Literacy, numeracy and learning in school-aged children identified as having speech and language impairment in early childhood

The progress of a nationally representative sample of 3632 children was followed from early childhood through to primary school, using data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). The aim was to examine the predictive effects of different aspects of communicative ability, and of early vs. sustained identification of speech and language impairment, on children's achievement and adjustment at school. Four indicators identified speech and language impairment: parent-rated expressive language concern; parent-rated receptive language concern; use of speech-language pathology services; below average scores on the adapted Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test-III. School outcomes were assessed by teachers' ratings of language/literacy ability, numeracy/mathematical thinking and approaches to learning. Comparison of group differences, using ANOVA, provided clear evidence that children who were identified as having speech and language impairment in their early childhood years did not perform as well at school, two years later, as their non-impaired peers on all three outcomes: Language and Literacy, Mathematical Thinking, and Approaches to Learning. The effects of early speech and language status on literacy, numeracy, and approaches to learning outcomes were similar in magnitude to the effect of family socio-economic factors, after controlling for child characteristics. Additionally, early identification of speech and language impairment (at age 4-5) was found to be a better predictor of school outcomes than sustained identification (at aged 4-5 and 6-7 years). Parent-reports of speech and language impairment in early childhood are useful in foreshadowing later difficulties with school and providing early intervention and targeted support from speech-language pathologists and specialist teachers.

A new look at leadership in collaborative networks : process catalysts

Collaborative networks have come to form a large part of the public sector’s strategy to address ongoing and often complex social problems. The relational power of networks, with its emphasis on trust, reciprocity and mutuality provides the mechanism to integrate previously dispersed and even competitive entities into a collective venture(Agranoff 2003; Agranoff and McGuire 2003; Mandell 1994; Mandell and Harrington 1999). It is argued that the refocusing of a single body of effort to a collective contributes to reducing duplication and overlap of services, maximizes increasingly scarce resources and contributes to solving intractable or 'wicked’problems (Clarke and Stewart 1997). Given the current proliferation of collaborative networks and the fact that they are likely to continue for some time, concerns with the management and leadership of such arrangements for optimal outcomes are increasingly relevant. This is especially important for public sector managers who are used to working in a top-down, hierarchical manner. While the management of networks (Agranoff and McGuire 2001, 2003), including collaborative or complex networks (Kickert et al. 1997; Koppenjan and Klijn 2004), has been the subject of considerable attention, there has been much less explicit discussion on leadership approaches in this context. It is argued in this chapter that the traditional use of the terms ‘leader’ or ‘leadership’ does not apply to collaborative networks. There are no ‘followers’ in collaborative networks or supervisor-subordinate relations. Instead there are equal, horizontal relationships that are focused on delivering systems change. In this way the emergent organizational forms such as collaborative networks challenge older models of leadership. However despite the questionable relevance of old leadership styles to the contemporary work environment, no clear alternative has come along to take its place.

Researching with and for young children : congruence and authenticity in methodology

Early childhood educators insist on recognition of young children’s personal agency and have identified that young children experience life more holistically than any other age group. This paper identifies the irony that, despite clear evidence that artistic expression is essential to development in young children, to date, the field of art in early childhood education has rarely embraced phenomenology which would appear to be an ideal means of illuminating young children’s experiences. We exemplify the importance of congruence and authentic artistic experience with a study into young children’s experiences of displaying their art. We describe the central features of Giorgi’s (1985a, 1985b) approach to phenomenological psychology and assert its appropriateness not only on the grounds that it is an empirical, clear and concise way of uncovering human experience, but also because it is congruent with current understandings of early childhood and reveals the children’s authentic experiences of themselves as artists.

Losing their marbles : syntax-free programming for assessing problem-solving skills

Novice programmers have difficulty developing an algorithmic solution while simultaneously obeying the syntactic constraints of the target programming language. To see how students fare in algorithmic problem solving when not burdened by syntax, we conducted an experiment in which a large class of beginning programmers were required to write a solution to a computational problem in structured English, as if instructing a child, without reference to program code at all. The students produced an unexpectedly wide range of correct, and attempted, solutions, some of which had not occurred to their teachers. We also found that many common programming errors were evident in the natural language algorithms, including failure to ensure loop termination, hardwiring of solutions, failure to properly initialise the computation, and use of unnecessary temporary variables, suggesting that these mistakes are caused by inexperience at thinking algorithmically, rather than difficulties in expressing solutions as program code.

Site survey and analysis of highway trucks overloading status quo in Anhui

In 2004, with the increasing overloading restriction requirements of society in Anhui, a provincial comprehensive overloading transportation survey has been developed to take evaluations on overloading actuality and enforcement efficiency with the support of the World Bank. A total of six site surveys were conducted at Hefei, Fuyang, Luan, Wuhu, Huainan and Huangshan Areas with four main contents respectively: traffic volume, axle load, freight information and registration information. Via statistical analysis on the survey data, conclusions were gained that: vehicle overloading are very universal and serious problems at arterial highways in Anhui now. The traffic loads have far exceeded the designed endure capacity of highways and have caused prevalent premature pavement damage, especially for rigid pavement. The overloading trucks are unimpeded engaged in highway freight transportation actually due to the disordered overloading enforcement strategies and the deficient inspecting technologies.